Scientometrics
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2020. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Clin Cases. Oct 6, 2020; 8(19): 4431-4442
Published online Oct 6, 2020. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v8.i19.4431
Global analysis of daily new COVID-19 cases reveals many static-phase countries including the United States potentially with unstoppable epidemic
Cheng Long, Xin-Miao Fu, Zhi-Fu Fu
Cheng Long, Department of Orthopaedics, Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China
Xin-Miao Fu, College of Life Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, Fujian Province, China
Zhi-Fu Fu, Anxi AIER Eye Hospital (AIER EYE Hospital Group), Anxi 362400, Fujian Province, China
Author contributions: Fu XM conceptually designed the study; Long C organized the data and performed the analyses; Fu ZF drafted the manuscript; and Fu XM made the revision to the manuscript.
Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 31972918 and No. 31770830 (to Fu XM).
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest to disclose.
PRISMA 2009 Checklist statement: The authors have read the PRISMA 2009 Checklist, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the PRISMA 2009 Checklist.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Zhi-Fu Fu, MD, Chief Doctor, Anxi AIER Eye Hospital (AIER EYE Hospital Group), Anxi County, Anxi 362400, Fujian Province, China. fu_zhifu@163.com
Received: June 15, 2020
Peer-review started: June 15, 2020
First decision: June 19, 2020
Revised: June 20, 2020
Accepted: August 27, 2020
Article in press: August 27, 2020
Published online: October 6, 2020
ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS
Research background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is profoundly influencing all the countries in the world. One key characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic is that the epidemic is differentially progressing in different countries, which complicates the implementation of measures for containment.

Research motivation

Characterization of the status of COVID-19 epidemic in each country may help the government, researchers, and the public to get better prepared for containing the unprecedented outbreaks.

Research objectives

We attempted to characterize the status of COVID-19 epidemic in over 60 most affected countries by analyzing their daily new COVID-19 cases over time. COVID-19 tests and the critical factor affecting the COVID-19 status were also comprehensively analyzed.

Research methods

The data of daily new cases of each country were collected from Worldometer. The data of daily tests for the United States, Italy, and South Korea were collected from the Website of One World Data. Daily positive COVID-19 tests in the two most affected states of the United States (New York and New Jersey) were collected from the website of the COVID Tracking Project. Statistics were analyzed using Microcal Origin software with ANOVA algorithm, and significance level was set at a P value of 0.05.

Research results

The COVID-19 epidemic was differentially progressing in different countries. The 61 most affected countries can be classified into four types based on their COVID-19 status: Downward (22), upward (20), static-phase (12), and uncertain ones (7). In particular, the 12 static-phase countries including the United States ere characterized by largely constant numbers of daily new cases in the past over 14 d. Furthermore, these static-phase countries were overall significantly lower in testing density (P = 0.016) but higher in the level of positive COVID-19 tests than downward countries (P = 0.028).

Research conclusions

COVID-19 epidemic in static-phase countries is potentially unstoppable because their daily new infections may be more than daily new cases (confirmed) due to the relative shortage of the COVID-19 testing capacity.

Research perspectives

The COVID-19 epidemic in static-phase countries cannot be stopped unless the testing capacity is increased and/or the COVID-19 transmission is reduced. As such, daily new cases, testing capacity, and level of positive COVID-19 tests need to be closely monitored to comprehensively evaluate the status of COVID-19 epidemic in these countries.