Published online Nov 16, 2022. doi: 10.12998/wjcc.v10.i32.11743
Peer-review started: August 28, 2022
First decision: October 4, 2022
Revised: October 7, 2022
Accepted: October 18, 2022
Article in press: October 18, 2022
Published online: November 16, 2022
Upper endoscopy is the gold standard for predicting esophageal varices in China. Guidelines and consensus suggest that patients with liver cirrhosis should undergo periodic upper endoscopy, most patients undergo their first upper endoscopy when esophageal variceal bleeds. Therefore, it is important to develop a non-invasive model to early diagnose esophageal varices.
To develop a non-invasive predictive model for esophageal varices based on liver and spleen volume in viral cirrhosis patients.
We conducted a cross-sectional study based on viral cirrhosis crowd in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. By collecting the basic infor
The portal vein diameter, the liver and spleen volume, and volume change rate were the independent risk factors of esophageal varices. We successfully used the factors to establish the predictive model [area under the curve (AUC) 0.87, 95%CI: 0.80-0.95], which showed better predictive value than other models. The model showed good discriminating ability, calibration ability and the clinical practicability in both modelling group and external validation group.
The developed non-invasive predictive model can be used as an effective tool for predicting esophageal varices in viral cirrhosis patients.
Core Tip: An effective novel non-invasive predictive model based on the standard liver and spleen volume formula for esophageal varices in individuals with viral cirrhosis was developed. The model's specificity, calibrability, and clinical efficacy were superior to other models.