Published online Jul 15, 2017. doi: 10.4239/wjd.v8.i7.365
Peer-review started: October 28, 2016
First decision: January 20, 2017
Revised: May 13, 2017
Accepted: May 13, 2017
Article in press: June 8, 2017
Published online: July 15, 2017
To determine the predictive role of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) for diabetes and prediabetes risk in future in total sample as well as in men and women separately.
In a population based cohort study, 1765 with mean ± SD age: 42.32 ± 6.18 healthy participants were followed up from 2003 till 2013 (n = 960). Anthropometric and biochemical measures of participants were evaluated regularly during the follow up period. BMI and WC measures at baseline and diabetes and prediabetes status of participants at 2013 were determined. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used for determining the risk of diabetes and prediabetes considering important potential confounding variables. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was conducted to determine the best cut of values of BMI and WC for diabetes and prediabetes.
At 2013, among participants who had complete data, 45 and 307 people were diabetic and prediabetic, respectively. In final fully adjusted model, BMI value was a significant predictor of diabetes (RR = 1.39, 95%CI: 1.06-1.82 and AUC = 0.68, 95%CI: 0.59-0.75; P < 0.001) however not a significant risk factor for prediabetes. Also, WC was a significant predictor for diabetes (RR = 1.2, 95%CI: 1.05-1.38 and AUC = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.6-0.75) but not significant risk factor for prediabetes. Similar results were observed in both genders.
General and abdominal obesity are significant risk factors for diabetes in future.
Core tip: The predictive powers of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were similar in predicting the incidence risk of diabetes in either gender. The cut-off points for predicting diabetes in men and women were different. Defined cut-off points based on maximum sensitivity plus specificity values suggested that in men, BMI of 26.2 kg/m2 and WC of 89.7 cm, and in women, BMI of 28.6 kg/m2 and WC of 84.3 cm would predict Isfahanian population at high risk for developing diabetes.