Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2025.
World J Gastrointest Oncol. Aug 15, 2025; 17(8): 108016
Published online Aug 15, 2025. doi: 10.4251/wjgo.v17.i8.108016
Table 1 Baseline characteristics of patients
Characteristic
n
Percentage
Age (years)42-78
Average value (mean ± SD)62.3 ± 8.7
Gender
Male4455.0
Female3645.0
Body mass index (kg/m²) 18.5-29.6
Average value (mean ± SD)24.1 ± 3.4
Tumor location
Upper rectum1215.0
Middle rectum3442.5
Lower rectum3442.5
Table 2 Univariate analysis of magnetic resonance imaging features and serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels
Magnetic resonance imaging feature
n
Serum carcinoembryonic antigen level (ng/mL) (mean ± SD)
r value
P value
Tumor size (cm) 0.456< 0.01
≤ 4405.2 ± 1.8
> 4408.3 ± 2.5
T-stage0.387< 0.01
T1-T2304.8 ± 1.6
T3-T4508.1 ± 2.9
Circumferential resection margin0.325< 0.05
Positive288.9 ± 3.3
Negative525.2 ± 2.1
Extramural vascular invasion0.298< 0.05
Yes357.8 ± 2.7
No455.3 ± 2.3
Lymph node metastasis0.356< 0.01
Yes408.5 ± 2.8
No404.9 ± 1.9
Table 3 Multivariate logistic regression analysis of factors associated with serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels
Independent variable
B
SE
Wald
Odds ratio
95%CI
P value
Tumor size0.9420.25613.5782.5631.562-4.208< 0.01
T-stage0.6290.2019.7451.8751.236-2.847< 0.01
Circumferential resection margin status0.2120.1981.1461.2340.856-1.782> 0.05
Extramural vascular invasion0.1450.2050.5031.1560.789-1.697> 0.05
Lymph node metastasis0.5210.2394.7361.6841.057-2.685< 0.05
Table 4 Construction process of the prediction model and performance analysis indicators
Indicator
Value
Sensitivity (%)76.5
Specificity (%)82.3
Area under the curve0.856
95%CI0.782-0.930
P value of Hosmer-Lemeshow test0.765
Table 5 Performance analysis of the prediction model in different subgroups
Subgroup
n
Area under the curve
95%CI
Stage T1-T2 and no lymph node metastasis180.7350.623-0.847
Stage T1-T2 and with lymph node metastasis120.8020.698-0.906
Stage T3-T4 and no lymph node metastasis210.8340.721-0.947
Stage T3-T4 and with lymph node metastasis190.9120.835-0.989