Predicting lymph node metastasis in colorectal cancer: An analysis of influencing factors to develop a risk model

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a significant global health issue, and lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a crucial prognostic factor. Accurate prediction of LNM is essential for developing individualized treatment strategies for patients with CRC. However, the prediction of LNM is challenging and depends on various factors such as tumor histology, clinicopathological features, and molecular characteristics. The most reliable method to detect LNM is the histopathological examination of surgically resected specimens; however, this method is invasive, time-consuming, and subject to sampling errors and interobserver variability.

AIM

To analyze influencing factors and develop and validate a risk prediction model for LNM in CRC based on a large patient queue.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed 300 patients who underwent CRC surgery at two Peking University Shenzhen hospitals between January and December 2021. A deep learning approach was used to extract features potentially associated with LNM from primary tumor histological images while a logistic regression model was employed to predict LNM in CRC using machine-learning-derived features and clinicopathological variables as predictors.

RESULTS

The prediction model constructed for LNM in CRC was based on a logistic regression framework that incorporated machine learning-extracted features and clinicopathological variables. The model achieved high accuracy (0.86), sensitivity (0.81), specificity (0.87), positive predictive value (0.66), negative predictive value (0.94), area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic (0.91), and a low Brier score (0.10). The model showed good agreement between the observed and predicted probabilities of LNM across a range of risk thresholds, indicating good calibration and clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

The present study successfully developed and validated a potent and effective risk-prediction model for LNM in patients with CRC. This model utilizes machine-learning-derived features extracted from primary tumor histology and clinicopathological variables, demonstrating superior performance and clinical applicability compared to existing models. The study provides new insights into the potential of deep learning to extract valuable information from tumor histology, in turn, improving the prediction of LNM in CRC and facilitate risk stratification and decision-making in clinical practice.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer, Lymph node metastasis, Machine learning, Risk prediction model, Clinicopathological factors, Individualized treatment strategies

Core Tip: This study developed a robust risk prediction model for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in colorectal cancer (CRC) using machine learning and clinicopathological factors. The model achieved high accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, demonstrating its superior performance compared to existing models. By leveraging deep learning to extract information from tumor histology, the model improves LNM prediction, facilitating individualized treatment strategies and clinical decision-making in CRC.