Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2025. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastrointest Oncol. Aug 15, 2025; 17(8): 109245
Published online Aug 15, 2025. doi: 10.4251/wjgo.v17.i8.109245
Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden trends in Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa in 1990-2021
Yun-Long Cui, Xu Bao, Dong-Ming Liu, Han Mu, Ge Yu
Yun-Long Cui, Xu Bao, Dong-Ming Liu, Han Mu, Ge Yu, Department of Hepatobiliary Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin 300060, China
Author contributions: Cui YL, Bao X, Liu DM, Mu H and Yu G contributed to the study conception and design; Cui YL designed the research and reviewed the manuscript; Liu DM, Bao X, Mu H and Yu G wrote the manuscript; all authors have read and approved the manuscript.
Supported by the Key Project of Science & Technology Development Fund of Tianjin Education Commission for Higher Education, No. 2024ZD023.
Institutional review board statement: This is a retrospective study utilizing public databases. It does not involve patient ethics or animal ethics considerations. As a retrospective analysis based on publicly available databases, this study requires neither.
Informed consent statement: As this retrospective study utilized de-identified, publicly available datasets, no signed informed consent forms or related documentation were required or obtained.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Data sharing statement: No data applicable.
Open Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/Licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Corresponding author: Yun-Long Cui, Professor, Department of Hepatobiliary Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tiyuanbei, Huanhuxi Road, Tianjin 300060, China. jinhpj@163.com
Received: May 7, 2025
Revised: May 30, 2025
Accepted: July 14, 2025
Published online: August 15, 2025
Processing time: 101 Days and 15.9 Hours
Abstract
BACKGROUND

Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is a highly aggressive malignant tumor with a high fatality rate. The global incidence and mortality of GBTC continue to increase, presenting a significant challenge to public health. Strategies for preventing and controlling GBTC in Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries offer valuable lessons for other developing nations.

AIM

To investigate GBTC burden trends in BRICS countries and perform an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) from 1990-2021.

METHODS

Data on the incidences and crude incidence rates, the number of deaths and crude mortality rates, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of GBTC were obtained for BRICS countries from the GBD study 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to examine the trends in disease burden from 1990 to 2021. The APC model was utilized to assess the age, period, and birth cohort effects on the changes in GBTC disease burden worldwide and in the BRICS countries during the same time frame. Bayesian APC analysis was used to estimate the future burden.

RESULTS

The increases in incidence and deaths were 101.09% and 74.26%, respectively, compared with 1990. The ASMRs in Brazil, Russia, and China decreased, while those in India and South Africa increased. Among the BRICS countries, in most age groups in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa, the crude incidence and mortality rates in women were higher than those in men, whereas in China, the situation was the opposite. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that from 1990 to 2021, the overall ASIR of gallbladder and bile duct cancer exhibited a declining trend. Although the incidence rate in China showed an increasing trend, the mortality rate exhibited a declining trend, which became more pronounced over time.

CONCLUSION

In BRICS countries, the number of incident cases and deaths from GBTC increased between 1990 and 2021, primarily due to rapid population growth. Nevertheless, the ASIR and ASMR declined during the same period.

Keywords: Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer; Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa; Incidence; Mortality; Age-period-cohort model analysis

Core Tip: The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) continues to rise, with marked heterogeneity across Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) nations. Using global burden of disease 2021 data, age-period-cohort modeling revealed a 101% increase in global GBTC incidence and 74% mortality growth from 1990-2021. Declining age-standardized mortality rates were observed in Brazil, Russia, and China, contrasting with increases in India and South Africa. Male predominance in China vs female predominance in other BRICS countries was noted. Trend analysis highlighted China's unique initial decline followed by a rebound in incidence, underscoring the urgent need for targeted prevention strategies.