Increased prognostic value of clinical–reproductive model in Chinese female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Table 1 Distribution of the clinical and reproductive factors for female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in primary training, internal and external validation cohorts (mean ± SD)

Characteristics	Primary training cohort (%)	Internal validation cohort (%)	External validation cohort (%)
Total	175 (61.2)	111 (38.8)	85 (100)
Diagnose age
< 50	21 (12.0)	16 (14.4)	10 (11.8)
50-60	59 (33.7)	47 (42.3)	35 (41.2)
> 60	95 (54.3)	48 (43.2)	40 (47.1)
Age	61.35 ± 7.99	60.25 ± 7.97	60.15 ± 8.50
Incidence area
High	138 (78.9)	89 (80.2)	64 (75.3)
Low	37 (21.1)	22 (19.8)	21 (24.7)
Tumor location
Upper	34 (19.4)	19 (17.1)	11 (12.9)
Middle	113 (64.6)	79 (71.2)	66 (77.6)
Lower	28 (16.0)	13 (11.7)	8 (9.4)
Differentiation
Higher	11 (6.3)	8 (7.2)	3 (3.5)
Moderate	101 (57.7)	67 (60.4)	51 (60.0)
Lower	63 (36.0)	36 (32.4)	31 (36.5)
T stage
T1/T2	64 (36.6)	32 (28.8)	26 (30.6)
T3/T4	111 (63.4)	79 (71.2)	59 (69.4)
N stage
N0	86 (49.1)	60 (54.1)	46 (54.1)
N1-N3	89 (50.9)	51 (45.9)	39 (45.9)
Therapy methods
Operation	164 (93.7)	106 (95.5)	82 (96.5)
Others	11 (6.3)	5 (4.5)	3 (3.5)
Family history
No	116 (66.3)	66 (59.5)	56 (65.9)
Yes	59 (33.7)	45 (40.5)	29 (34.1)
ESR1
Negative	49 (28.0)	41 (36.9)	29 (34.1)
Positive	126 (72.0)	70 (63.1)	56 (65.9)
ESR2
Negative	63 (36.0)	39 (35.1)	24 (28.2)
Positive	112 (64.0)	72 (64.9)	61 (71.8)
Menarche age
< 14	28 (16.0)	23 (20.7)	12 (14.1)
14-16	85 (48.6)	45 (40.5)	41 (48.2)
> 16	62 (35.4)	43 (38.7)	32 (37.6)
Menopausal age
< 46	48 (27.4)	19 (17.1)	23 (27.1)
46-55	47 (26.9)	36 (32.4)	20 (23.5)
> 55	80 (45.7)	56 (50.5)	42 (49.4)
Pregnancy number
< 4	61 (34.9)	40 (36.0)	30 (35.3)
4-6	86 (49.1)	52 (46.8)	43 (50.6)
> 6	28 (16.0)	19 (17.1)	12 (14.1)

T: Tumor invasion depth; N: Lymph node metastasis; ESR1: Estrogen receptor alpha; ESR2: Estrogen receptor beta.

Table 2 Comparison of three models in primary training, internal validation, and external validation sets

	Primary training set		Internal validation set		External validation set
	C-index (95%CI)	P value	C-index (95%CI)	P value	C-index (95%CI)	P value
Full model	0.701 (0.655-0.746)	Ref.	0.684 (0.619-0.748)	Ref.	0.672 (0.609-0.734)	Ref.
Clinical-model	0.629 (0.578-0.681)	0.000	0.593 (0.531-0.655)	0.009	0.589 (0.514-0.663)	0.014
TNM stage	0.638 (0.576-0.699)	0.013	0.552 (0.462-0.641)	0.011	0.560 (0.462-0.657)	0.033

Full model: Pregnancy number + menopausal age + estrogen receptor alpha + estrogen receptor beta + N stage + differentiation + diagnose age + incidence area; Clinical model: N stage + differentiation + diagnose age+ incidence area; CI: Confidence interval; TNM stage: Tumor-node-metastasis stage; N: Lymph node metastasis.