Ding L, Chen HY, Wang JY, Xiong HF, He WH, Xia L, Lu NH, Zhu Y. Severity of acute gastrointestinal injury grade is a good predictor of mortality in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis. World J Gastroenterol 2020; 26(5): 514-523 [PMID: 32089627 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i5.514]
Corresponding Author of This Article
Yin Zhu, PhD, Chief Doctor, Professor of Medicine, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, China. zhuyin27@sina.com
Research Domain of This Article
Gastroenterology & Hepatology
Article-Type of This Article
Retrospective Cohort Study
Open-Access Policy of This Article
This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Table 2 Factors associated with mortality according to univariate logistic regression analysis
Variable
B
OR (95%CI)
P value
Male sex
0.075
1.078 (0.573-2.028)
0.817
Age
0.043
1.044 (1.024-1.064)
< 0.001
BMI
-0.020
0.980 (0.913-1.052)
0.574
Etiology of AP
Biliary
Ref
Ref
Ref
Alcoholic
0.630
1.878 (0.822-4.293)
0.135
Hyperlipidemic
-0.669
0.512 (0.249-1.053)
0.069
Others
-0.507
0.602 (0.127-2.858)
0.523
History of tobacco use
-0.256
0.774 (0.389-1.541)
0.467
History of alcohol use
0.723
2.060 (1.108-3.829)
0.022
Diabetes mellitus
-0.067
0.935 (0.408-2.143)
0.874
Hypertension
0.496
1.643 (0.818-3.297)
0.163
Urea nitrogen
0.190
1.209 (1.140-1.283)
< 0.001
Calcium
-2.444
0.087 (0.029-0.263)
< 0.001
D-dimer
0.090
1.094 (1.045-1.146)
< 0.001
Glucose
-0.014
0.986 (0.924-1.053)
0.671
Albumin
-0.088
0.916 (0.850-0.986)
0.020
Global AGI grade (I/II vs III/IV)
3.183
24.110 (8.382-69.352)
< 0.001
Persistent respiratory failure
2.834
17.013 (5.933-48.785)
< 0.001
Persistent renal failure
2.489
12.048 (5.634-25.764)
< 0.001
Persistent circulatory failure
3.731
41.719 (18.402-94.584)
< 0.001
Table 3 Factors associated with mortality according to multivariate logistic regression analysis
Variables
B
OR (95%CI)
P value
Age
0.092
1.096 (1.055-1.139)
< 0.001
Calcium
-2.147
0.117 (0.015-0.901)
0.039
Global AGI grade (I/II vs III/IV)
1.249
3.487 (1.685-7.214)
0.001
Persistent renal failure
1.513
4.538 (1.347-15.292)
0.015
Persistent circulatory failure
3.184
24.148 (7.919-73.638)
< 0.001
Table 4 Accuracy of each score for predicting mortality according to receiver operating characteristic curve analysis
Variables
Sensitivity
specificity
AUC (95%CI)
Cutoff value
AGI grade
91.67%
67.13%
0.854 (0.806-0.895)
> grade II
APACHEII score
68.75%
70.83%
0.739 (0.682-0.791)
> 12
Modified Marshall score
64.58%
83.33%
0.785 (0.730-0.833)
> 2
Ranson score
54.17%
81.94%
0.720 (0.662-0.774)
> 4
Citation: Ding L, Chen HY, Wang JY, Xiong HF, He WH, Xia L, Lu NH, Zhu Y. Severity of acute gastrointestinal injury grade is a good predictor of mortality in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis. World J Gastroenterol 2020; 26(5): 514-523