New index to predict esophageal variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients

Table 1 Patient characteristics and results

Variable	EVB+ (n = 51)	EVB- (n = 365)	P value
Age (yr)	67.5 ± 13.4	62.3 ± 11.8	0.0085
Sex (male/female)	27/24	201/164	0.7749
Etiology of liver disease
Hepatitis B virus	36	255	0.9157
Primary biliary cirrhosis or primary sclerosing cholangitis	0	2	0.5962
Alcohol-related liver disease	1	4	0.5955
Schistosomiasis-associated liver disease	14	104	0.8771
MELD score	26.5 ± 9.8	18.9 ± 10.3	0.0000
ΔMELD score	1.89 ± 1.23	0.66 ± 0.47	0.0001
US parameters
PV diameter (cm)	1.37 ± 0.25	1.31 ± 0.18	0.0979
PV velocity (cm/s)	16.9 ± 10.1	19.9 ± 8.4	0.0428
PV flow (mL/min)	809 ± 396	776 ± 412	0.5907
SV diameter (cm)	1.23 ± 0.45	1.01 ± 0.23	0.0006
SV velocity (cm/s)	27.1 ± 11.3	29.1 ± 12.0	0.2623
SV flow (mL/min)	1124 ± 412	896 ± 331	0.0002
LGV diameter (cm)	0.73 ± 0.33	0.61 ± 0.21	0.0115
LGV velocity (hepatopetal) (cm/s)	-21.1 ± 8.1	14.1 ± 6.9	0.0002
LGVBFD (hepatofugal)	49	73	0.0000
Spleen longitudinal diameter (cm)	20.7 ± 4.1	18.6 ± 3.6	0.3356

EVB+: Patients with esophageal variceal bleeding; EVB-: Patients without esophageal variceal bleeding; LGV: Left gastric vein; LGVBFD: LGV blood flow direction; MELD: Model for End-stage Liver Disease; PV: Portal vein; SV: Splenic vein; US: Ultrasound.

Table 2 Multivariate logistic regression analysis

Variable	Coefficient	SE	Wald	P value	OR (95%CI)
ΔMELD	1.667	0.781	4.719	0.023	6.195 (1.193-22.624)
LGVV	2.096	0.658	13.116	0.001	7.129 (2.725-24.256)
LGVBFD	-3.245	1.271	7.001	0.006	23.306 (2.376-337.186)
Constant	-1.697	0.659	6.635	0.010	0.183

ΔMELD: Change in the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score over a period of three months; LGVBFD: Left gastric vein blood flow direction; LGVV: Left gastric vein blood flow velocity.