Retrospective Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2024. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Feb 7, 2024; 30(5): 450-461
Published online Feb 7, 2024. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v30.i5.450
Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer
Ling-Li Xu, Yi Lin, Li-Yuan Han, Yue Wang, Jian-Jiong Li, Xiao-Yu Dai
Ling-Li Xu, Jian-Jiong Li, Xiao-Yu Dai, Department of General Surgery, Ningbo No. 2 Hospital, Ningbo 315000, Zhejiang Province, China
Yi Lin, Center for Health Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Nottingham, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang Province, China
Li-Yuan Han, Department of Global Health, Ningbo Institute of Life and Health Industry, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315000, Zhejiang Province, China
Yue Wang, School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, Jiangsu Province, China
Co-first authors: Ling-Li Xu and Yi Lin.
Co-corresponding authors: Jian-Jiong Li and Xiao-Yu Dai.
Author contributions: Xu LL, Lin Y, Li JJ and Dai XY participated in the study design; Xu LL and Lin Y statistically analyzed, interpreted, and drafted the manuscript; Xu LL and Lin Y revised the manuscript; Han LY and Wang Y contributed to data collection and organization; all authors contributed to the revision of the final manuscript and approved the final version of the manuscript; Li JJ and Dai XY provided financial support and study supervision.
Supported by the Project of NINGBO Leading Medical Health Discipline, No. 2022-B11; Ningbo Natural Science Foundation, No. 202003N4206; and Public Welfare Foundation of Ningbo, No. 2021S108.
Institutional review board statement: This study was reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Ningbo No. 2 Hospital.
Informed consent statement: All involved persons gave their informed written consent prior to study inclusion and any and all details that might disclose the identity of the subjects under study were omitted.
Conflict-of-interest statement: The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.
Data sharing statement: No additional data are available.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article that was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See:
Corresponding author: Xiao-Yu Dai, MD, Chief Physician, Department of General Surgery, Ningbo No. 2 Hospital, No. 41 Northwest Street, Haishu Zone, Ningbo 315000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Received: October 16, 2023
Peer-review started: October 16, 2023
First decision: December 6, 2023
Revised: December 19, 2023
Accepted: January 12, 2024
Article in press: January 12, 2024
Published online: February 7, 2024
Research background

The establishment of early screening model for high risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) may become a potential new method for early screening. It is different from traditional invasive screening and is a noninvasive, simple and rapid screening methods. Although there are many studies on early screening model for high risk of CRC, there is still a lack of large sample size studies and clinical validation. Our study focused on collecting information in the general population who attended annual health checks. At the same time, this is also the first study with a large sample size for early screening for CRC in Ningbo, China, which was part of national early screening for CRC.

Research motivation

Constructing an early screening model for CRC high-risk groups by means of basic information such as lifestyle has gradually become a major topic in CRC early screening research, which is mainly aimed at solving the problem of the more complicated means of early screening for colorectal cancer high-risk groups.

Research objectives

This study aimed to establish an efficient early screening model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC, and reduce CRC prevalence and mortality.

Research methods

This retrospective study included data from the health screening population in Ningbo Hospital, China from 2014 to 2017 to analyze the basic information, living habits and dietary habits, so that the early screening model of CRC was constructed and conducted for internal verification.

Research results

Retrospective analysis of 63918 individuals eligible for health screening, comprising studies with seven variables. The area under the curve was 0.734 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.723-0.745] for the final validation set receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and 0.735 (95%CI: 0.728-0.742) for the training set ROC curve. The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.

Research conclusions

This study has an early screening model for high risk of CRC based on basic population information, lifestyle and family history.

Research perspectives

This study has the potential to revolutionize primary detection by accurately identifying groups at high risk of developing CRC.