Published online Apr 15, 2019. doi: 10.4251/wjgo.v11.i4.322
Peer-review started: November 19, 2018
First decision: December 7, 2018
Revised: January 3, 2019
Accepted: January 8, 2019
Article in press: January 9, 2019
Published online: April 15, 2019
Liver transplantation (LT) is regarded as the best treatment for both primary and recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Post-transplant HCC recurrence rate is relatively low but significant, ranging from 10%-30% according to different series. When recurrence happens, it is usually extrahepatic and associated with poor prognosis. A predictive model that allows patient stratification according to recurrence risk can help to individualize post-transplant surveillance protocol and guidance of the use of anti-tumor immunosuppressive agents.
To develop a scoring system to predict HCC recurrence after LT in an Asian population.
Consecutive patients having LT for HCC from 1995 to 2016 at our hospital were recruited. They were randomized into the training set and the validation set in a 60:40 ratio. Multivariable Cox regression model was used to identity factors associated with HCC recurrence. A risk score was assigned to each factor according to the odds ratio. Accuracy of the score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
In total, 330 patients were eligible for analysis (183 in training and 147 in validation). Recurrent HCC developed in 14.2% of them. The median follow-up duration was 65.6 mo. The 5-year disease-free and overall survival rates were 78% and 80%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein > 400 ng/mL [P = 0.012, hazard ratio (HR) 2.92], sum of maximum tumor size and number (P = 0.013, HR 1.15), and salvage LT (P = 0.033, HR 2.08) were found to be independent factors for disease-free survival. A risk score was calculated for each patient with good discriminatory power (c-stat 0.748 and 0.85, respectively, in the training and validation sets). With the derived scores, patients were classified into low- (0–9), moderate- (> 9–14), and high-risk groups (> 14), and the risk of HCC recurrence in the training and validation sets was 10%, 20%, 54% (c-stat 0.67) and 4%, 22%, 62% (c-stat 0.811), accordingly. The risk stratification model was validated with chi-squared goodness-of-fit test (P = 0.425).
A validated predictive model featuring alpha-fetoprotein, salvage LT, and the sum of largest tumor diameter and total number of tumor nodule provides simple and reliable guidance for individualizing postoperative surveillance strategy.
Core tip: Recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma is the leading cause of death after liver transplantation. A validated predictive system for the chance of post-transplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma is indispensable for stratifying patients into different risk groups. This study found that salvage liver transplantation, pre-transplant alpha-fetoprotein level, and the sum of pathological tumor size and number were the three independent factors associated with recurrence. Based on this, a scoring model was derived, validated, and found to have good concordance and is therefore recommendable to be used as a guide for postoperative patient surveillance.