Analysis of risk factors and a prediction model for rebleeding in liver cirrhosis patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding

Core Tip

Core Tip: This single-center retrospective study enrolled 130 cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) in 2024 and conducted a one-year follow-up, including 62 rebleeding cases and 68 non-rebleeding cases, aiming to address the high mortality of EGVB rebleeding and the lack of simple non-invasive predictive tools for Hainan population. The study identified four independent risk factors for rebleeding -decreased red blood cell, elevated blood urea nitrogen, ascites, and thickening of the gallbladder wall (TGBW); notably, TGBW was originally validated as a novel non-invasive imaging predictor with an odds ratio value of 0.199 (P < 0.001). A reliable nomogram prediction model was further constructed with an original area under the curve (AUC) of 0.853 and a bootstrap internal validation AUC of 0.855, presenting favorable calibration and clinical applicability. Since this model merely requires routine blood tests and ultrasonic indicators, it can realize convenient and non-invasive risk stratification to guide secondary clinical prevention for local patients. Nevertheless, this research is limited by its retrospective nature, single-center setting and relatively small sample size; and further multi-center prospective studies are required to verify the generalizability of the model.