Risk stratification for malignant progression in Barrett’s esophagus: Gender, age, duration and year of surveillance

Table 1 Annual incidence of adenocarcinoma and dysplasia dependent on year of surveillance

Calendar years	Total patient-years follow-up	Adenocarcinoma		High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma		All grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
		Number of cases	Annual incidence	Number of cases	Annual incidence	Number of cases	Annual incidence
1974-1989	237	0	0.00%	0	0.00%	1	0.46%
1990-1994	753	1	0.13%	1	0.13%	9	1.33%
1995-1999	1950	19	0.97%	21	1.09%	76	4.70%
2000-2004	2058	15	0.73%	23	1.12%	60	3.63%
2005-	1477	19	1.29%	25	1.17%	44	3.66%
Total	6474	54	0.83%	70	1.09%	190	3.54%

Table 2 Annual incidence of adenocarcinoma and dysplasia dependent on age at surveillance

Age at surveillance	Total patient-years follow-up	Adenocarcinoma		High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma		All grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
		Number of cases	Annual incidence	Number of cases	Annual incidence	Number of cases	Annual incidence
< 40	236	0	0.00%	1	0.42%	4	1.89%
40-49	740	0	0.00%	2	0.27%	15	2.30%
50-59	1602	6	0.37%	9	0.56%	39	2.82%
60-69	2154	15	0.70%	20	0.94%	63	3.66%
70-79	1464	20	1.37%	26	1.81%	52	4.49%
80+	278	13	4.67%	12	4.34%	17	7.18%
Total	6474	54	0.83%	70	1.09%	190	3.54%

Table 3 Annual incidence of adenocarcinoma and dysplasia dependent on duration of surveillance

Duration of surveillance (yr)	Total patient-years follow-up	Adenocarcinoma		High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma		All grades of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma
		Number of cases	Annual incidence	Number of cases	Annual incidence	Number of cases	Annual incidence
1-2	1848	14	0.76%	19	1.04%	72	4.47%
3-4	1235	9	0.73%	11	0.90%	41	4.02%
5-9	1587	20	1.26%	27	1.72%	54	4.47%
10+	668	11	1.65%	13	1.96%	23	4.52%

Table 4 Logistic regression results

Factor	Development of all grades of dysplasia and cancer	Development of high-grade dysplasia or cancer	Development of cancer
Age	P = 0.187	P = 0.400	P = 0.034
Segment length	P = 0.043	P = 0.121	P = 0.129
Most recent biopsy results		P = 0.058	P = 0.047
First two biopsy results	P < 0.001