Simple scoring system for predicting cirrhosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Table 1 Characteristics of patients in the estimation and validation groups

Variables	Fibrosis stages 0-3(non-cirrhosis)1	Fibrosis stage 4(cirrhosis)1	P value2
Age (yr)	51.1 ± 15.0	63.9 ± 9.6	< 0.0010
n	1010	38	-
BMI (kg/m2)	27.8 ± 4.9	28.6 ± 3.9	0.3648
AST (IU/L)	58.3 ± 38.2	70.2 ± 74.7	0.0721
ALT (IU/L)	92.2 ± 64.4	67.5 ± 65.6	0.0208
AAR	0.71 ± 0.29	1.15 ± 0.41	< 0.0010
ALP (IU/L)	258.8 ± 94.9	312.2 ± 155.6	0.0012
GGT (IU/L)	88.2 ± 93.8	95.4 ± 73.0	0.6408
ChE (IU/L)	383.0 ± 95.3	298.7 ± 127.0	< 0.0010
Albumin (g/dL)	4.42 ± 0.41	3.69 ± 0.47	< 0.0010
Ferritin (ng/mL)	255.3 ± 249.8	227.5 ± 198.0	0.5677
Fasting glucose (mg/dL)	113.3 ± 38.9	124.0 ± 57.2	0.1116
Fasting insulin (μU/mL)	14.8 ± 13.8	18.4 ± 10.5	0.1938
HOMA-IR	4.31 ± 5.10	6.05 ± 5.64	0.1015
Hemoglobin (g/dL)	14.5 ± 1.6	13.2 ± 1.5	< 0.0010
Platelet (× 104/μL)	22.6 ± 6.53	12.08 ± 4.40	< 0.0010
Hyaluronan (ng/mL)	54.5 ± 81.0	250.7 ± 191.0	< 0.0010
Collagen IV (ng/mL)	4.70 ± 3.60	8.14 ± 1.80	< 0.0010

¹Results are presented as numbers for qualitative data or as mean ± SD for quantitative data;

²P values were calculated by the t test or the χ² test. ALP: Alkaline phosphatase; ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; AAR: AST/ALT ratio; BMI: Body mass index; ChE: Cholinesterase; GGT: γ-glutamyl transpeptidase; HOMA-IR: Homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance.

Table 2 Multiple logistic regression analysis of factors associated with stage 0-3 compared with stage 4 (cirrhosis)

Variables	OR	95%CI	P value
Age (yr)	0.976	0.935-1.018	0.2610
AAR	0.122	0.054-0.279	0.0427
Cholinesterase (IU/L )	1.000	0.995-1.005	0.9200
Albumin (g/dL)	5.977	2.430-14.703	< 0.0001
Hemoglobin (g/dL)	0.988	0.761-1.283	0.9263
Platelet (× 104/μL)	1.282	1.169-1.405	< 0.0001
Hyaluronan (ng/mL)	1.000	0.997-1.003	0.8879
Type IV collagen 7s	0.941	0.883-1.004	0.0671

ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; AAR: AST/ALT ratio.