Retrospective Cohort Study
Copyright ©The Author(s) 2018. Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved.
World J Gastroenterol. Nov 28, 2018; 24(44): 5034-5045
Published online Nov 28, 2018. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v24.i44.5034
Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study
Yen-Chih Lin, Chew-Teng Kor, Wei-Wen Su, Yu-Chun Hsu
Yen-Chih Lin, Wei-Wen Su, Yu-Chun Hsu, Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Changhua Christian Hospital, Changhua 50006, Taiwan
Chew-Teng Kor, Internal Medicine Research Center, Changhua Christian Hospital, Changhua 50006, Taiwan
Author contributions: All the authors solely contributed to this paper.
Institutional review board statement: The study was reviewed and approved for publication by our Institutional Reviewer.
Informed consent statement: The data of our study cohort was obtained retrospectively from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, hence informed consent statement is unnecessary.
Conflict-of-interest statement: All the Authors have no conflict of interest related to the manuscript.
Data sharing statement: The original anonymous dataset is available on request from the corresponding author at
STROBE statement: The authors have read the STROBE Statement-checklist of items, and the manuscript was prepared and revised according to the STROBE Statement-checklist of items.
Open-Access: This article is an open-access article which was selected by an in-house editor and fully peer-reviewed by external reviewers. It is distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See:
Corresponding author to: Yen-Chih Lin, MD, Attending Doctor, Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Changhua Christian Hospital, No.135 Nanhsiao Street, Changhua 50006, Taiwan.
Telephone: +886-4-7238595 Fax: +886-4-7232942
Received: September 8, 2018
Peer-review started: September 10, 2018
First decision: October 24, 2018
Revised: October 29, 2018
Accepted: November 9, 2018
Article in press: November 9, 2018
Published online: November 28, 2018
Core Tip

Core tip: In this large number, nationwide population-based cohort study, we concluded that the presence of recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP), along with alcohol consumption, age of onset, and smoking habit are 4 important risk factors of chronic pancreatitis (CP). We developed a novel prediction score model for CP with excellent discrimination and successfully validated this model in our study. Using this scoring system, a clinician can predict the outcome of a patient with AP episode easily and arrange further examination such as pancreatic functional test or endoscopic ultrasound after the acute stage for the high-risk category to diagnose CP as early as possible (incidence rate of CP about 31 per 1000 person-years in high-risk group, based on our study) since CP is an important risk factor of pancreatic cancer.