Published online Dec 7, 2020. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v26.i45.7204
Peer-review started: September 2, 2020
First decision: September 30, 2020
Revised: October 7, 2020
Accepted: November 2, 2020
Article in press: November 2, 2020
Published online: December 7, 2020
Esophageal varices (EV) are an important cause of mortality for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) related cirrhosis.
There is no reliable and non-invasive tool to monitor EV, predict the clinical outcome, and adjust the follow-up strategy.
This study aimed to develop nomogram models including non-invasive and clinically accessible indicators to assess the risk and severity of EV.
Patients with CHB related cirrhosis were retrospectively included and divided into a training or validation cohort. Ultrasound parameters and blood indexes were applied to construct the nomograms, which were subsequently evaluated by receiver operating characteristic, concordance index, and decision curve analyses, and tested in the validation cohort.
The novel nomograms composed of clinical and ultrasonic variables were constructed and proved better than liver fibrosis index, splenic portal index, ratio of platelet count to spleen diameter, King’s score, and Lok index for predicting the risk and severity of EV.
The established novel nomograms are reliable and convenient for clinicians to predict EV in a non-invasive way and make preventive and therapeutic measurements.
The novel models need to be tested by multi-center prospective studies and adjusted for particular groups, such as patients complicated with other liver diseases.