Published online Dec 28, 2021. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v27.i48.8357
Peer-review started: July 12, 2021
First decision: October 3, 2021
Revised: October 9, 2021
Accepted: November 30, 2021
Article in press: November 30, 2021
Published online: December 28, 2021
New prognostic factors have been reported in patients with metastatic or recurrent gastric cancer (MRGC), necessitating modifications to the previous prognostic model.
To develop a new model, MRGC patients who received fluoropyrimidines/ platinum doublet chemotherapy between 2008 and 2015 were analyzed.
A total of 1883 patients was divided into a training set (n = 937) and an independent validation set (n = 946).
Multivariate analysis showed that the following six factors were associated with poor overall survival (OS) in the training set: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score ≥ 2 and bone metastasis (2 points each), peritoneal metastasis, high alkaline phosphatase level, low albumin level, and high neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (1 point each). A prognostic model was developed by stratifying patients into good (0-1 point), moderate (2-3 points), and poor (≥ 4 points) risk groups. In the validation set, the median OS of the three risk groups was 15.8, 10.1, and 5.7 mo, respectively, and those differences were significant (P < 0.001).
We identified six factors readily measured in clinical practice that are predictive of poor prognosis in patients with MRGC. The new model is simpler than the old and more easily predicts OS.
Core Tip: A new prognostic model for patients with metastatic or recurrent gastric cancer was developed using six clinicopathological elements (poor Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score, bone metastasis, peritoneal metastasis, high alkaline phosphatase level, low albumin level, and high neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio).