Published online May 7, 2021. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v27.i17.2025
Peer-review started: January 31, 2021
First decision: March 14, 2021
Revised: March 25, 2021
Accepted: April 2, 2021
Article in press: April 2, 2021
Published online: May 7, 2021
Antiviral therapy cannot completely block the progression of hepatitis B to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Furthermore, there are few predictors of early HCC progression and limited strategies to prevent progression in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who receive nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) therapy.
The study aim was to clarify risk factors and the diagnostic value of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) for HCC progression in NA-treated hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis patients.
In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we analyzed the clinical data of 266 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who received NA treatment between February 2014 and April 2020 at Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital. The patients were divided into two groups, 145 who did not progress to HCC (No-HCC group), and 121 who progressed to HCC during NA treatment (HCC group). The logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of HCC progression. The diagnostic value of AFP for HCC was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.
Univariate analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years (P = 0.001), hepatitis B and alcoholic etiology (P = 0.007), smoking history (P < 0.001), family history of HBV-related HCC (P = 0.002), lamivudine resistance (P = 0.011), HBV DNA negative (P = 0.023), aspartate aminotransferase > 80 U/L (P = 0.002), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase > 120 U/L (P = 0.001), alkaline phosphatase > 250 U/L (P = 0.001), fasting blood glucose (FBG) ≥ 6.16 (mmol/L) (P = 0.001) and Child-Pugh class C (P = 0.005) were correlated with HCC progression. In multivariate analysis, age ≥ 60 years [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.089, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.437-6.631, P = 0.004], smoking history (HR = 4.001, 95%CI: 1.836-8.716, P < 0.01), family history of HBV-related HCC (HR = 6.763, 95%CI: 1.253-36.499, P < 0.05), lamivudine resistance (HR = 2.949, 95%CI: 1.207-7.208, P = 0.018), HBV DNA negative (HR = 0.026, 95%CI: 0.007-0.139, P < 0.01), FBG ≥ 6.16 mmol/L (HR = 7.219, 95%CI: 3.716-14.024, P < 0.01) were independent risk factors of HCC progression. ROC of AFP for diagnosis of HCC was 0.746 (95%CI: 0.674-0.818). A cutoff value of AFP of 9.00 ug/L had a sensitivity of 0.609, and specificity of 0.818 for diagnosing HCC.
Age ≥ 60 years, smoking history, family history of HCC, lamivudine resistance, HBV DNA negative, FBG ≥ 6.16 mmol/L were risk factors of HCC progression. Serum AFP had limited diagnostic value for HCC.
Core Tip: This retrospective cross-sectional study analyzed risk factors of hepatoce