Published online Sep 7, 2005. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v11.i33.5193
Revised: February 23, 2005
Accepted: February 26, 2005
Published online: September 7, 2005
AIM: To identify the trend, possible risk factors and any pattern change of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Egypt over a decade.
METHODS: All HCC patients attending Cairo Liver Center between January 1993 and December 2002, were enrolled in the study. Diagnosis of HCC was based on histopathological examination and/or detection of hepatic focal lesions by two imaging techniques plus α-fetoprotein level above 200 ng/mL. The duration of the study was divided into two periods of 5 years each; period I (1993-1997) and period II (1998-2002). Trend, demographic features of patients (age, gender, and residence), risk factors (HBsAg, HCV-Ab, schistosomiasis and others) and pattern of the focal lesions were compared between the two periods. Logistic regression model was fitted to calculate the adjusted odds ratios for the potential risk factors. The population attributable risk percentage was calculated to estimate the proportion of HCC attributed to hepatitis B and C viral infections.
RESULTS: Over a decade, 1 328 HCC patients out of 22 450 chronic liver disease (CLD) patients were diagnosed with an overall proportion of 5.9%. The annual proportion of HCC showed a significant rising trend from 4.0% in 1993 to 7.2% in 2002 (P = 0.000). A significant increase in male proportion from 82.5% to 87.6% (P = 0.009); M/F from 5:1 to 7:1 and a slight increase of the predominant age group (40-59 years) from 62.6% to 66.8% (P = 0.387) in periods I and II respectively, reflecting a shift to younger age group. In the bivariate analysis, HCC was significantly higher in rural residents, patients with history of schistoso-miasis and/or blood transfusion. Yet, after adjustment, these variables did not have a significant risk for development of HCC. There was a significant decline of HBsAg from 38.6% to 20.5% (P = 0.000), and a slight increase of HCV-Ab from 85.6% to 87.9% in periods I and II respectively. HBV conferred a higher risk to develop HCC more than HCV in period I (OR 1.9 vs 1.6) and period II (OR 2.7 vs 2.0), but the relative contribution of HBV for development of HCC declined in period II compared to period I (PAR% 4.2%, 21.32%). At presentation, diagnostic α-fetoprotein level (≥200 ng/mL) was demonstrated in 15.6% vs 28.9% and small HCC (≤3 cm) represented 14.9% vs 22.7% (P = 0.0002) in periods I and II respectively.
CONCLUSION: Over a decade, there was nearly a twofold increase of the proportion of HCC among CLD patients in Egypt with a significant decline of HBV and slight increase of HCV as risk factors. α-Fetoprotein played a limited role in diagnosis of HCC, compared to imaging techniques. Increased detection of small lesions at presentation reflects increased awareness of the condition.