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Shen R, Xu J, Li Y, Yu J, Sun N, Xu Z, Xu X, Liu X, Liu Y, Li B, Qi L, Feng L. Urban Pertussis Epidemiological Patterns in a Highly Vaccinated Megacity: Policy Impacts and Control Strategies in Chongqing, China, 2005-2024. Int J Infect Dis 2025:107910. [PMID: 40286980 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2025] [Revised: 04/04/2025] [Accepted: 04/16/2025] [Indexed: 04/29/2025] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Despite high vaccination coverage, pertussis resurgence in megacities challenges conventional control strategies. We investigated epidemiological patterns and policy impacts in a densely populated urban setting in Chongqing, China. METHODS Using population-based surveillance data (2005-2024) from Chongqing (population 32.1 million; DTP3 coverage >97%), we conducted hierarchical Bayesian spatial modeling and age-structured SIRV transmission analysis. We assessed four sequential policy transitions and simulated four vaccination strategies over three years (2025-2027) to evaluate their potential impact. RESULTS Annual pertussis incidence increased from 0.25 to 70.82/100,000. Infants showed highest absolute risk, while children aged 6-7 years demonstrated elevated risk (RR: 0.55 and 0.54, respectively). Urban areas showed marginally elevated risk (RR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00-1.07). Molecular diagnostics implementation revealed substantial hidden transmission (RR: 82.65, 95%CI: 73.47-92.99). Modeling projected extended school-age boosters (ages 5-7 years) would reduce incidence by 47.93%, targeted vaccination of ages 6-7 years achieved 36.64% reduction, and the national benchmark with 6-year booster reduced incidence by 19.09%. All strategies provided substantial indirect protection to infants without direct intervention. CONCLUSIONS Enhanced molecular surveillance uncovered substantial hidden transmission in urban settings. Strategic school-age targeted vaccination could effectively disrupt urban transmission chains while protecting vulnerable infants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rui Shen
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Jiawei Xu
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China
| | - Yugang Li
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Jianxing Yu
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Na Sun
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Zilu Xu
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Xueying Xu
- School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Xiao Liu
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China
| | - Yang Liu
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China
| | - Bosong Li
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China
| | - Li Qi
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China
| | - Luzhao Feng
- Public Health Emergency Management Innovation Center, School of Population Medicine & and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/ and Peking Union Medical College; Key Laboratory of Pathogen Infection Prevention and Control, Peking Union Medical College, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, Beijing 100730, China.
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Klebaner D, Brown E, Fisher GA, Shelton A, Johnson TP, Shaheen S, Chen C, Heestand G, Holden T, Bien J, King DA, Dawes AJ, Morris AM, Kirilcuk N, Kin C, Gahagan J, Sheth V, Ghanouni P, Richter S, Vitzthum L, Rahimy E, Chang DT, Pollom EL. Phase II trial of organ preservation program using short-course radiation and FOLFOXIRI for rectal cancer (SHORT-FOX): Two-Year primary outcome analysis. Radiother Oncol 2025; 207:110884. [PMID: 40209856 DOI: 10.1016/j.radonc.2025.110884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2024] [Revised: 03/31/2025] [Accepted: 04/01/2025] [Indexed: 04/12/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE As patients with rectal cancer with clinical complete response (cCR) after neoadjuvant therapy may be safely spared Total Mesorectal Excision (TME), strategies to maximize cCR are needed. MATERIALS AND METHODS We conducted a single-arm phase II study to determine whether dose-escalated short-course radiotherapy (25 Gy/5 fractions + 5 Gy/1 fraction boost) followed by eight cycles of FOLFOXIRI increased cCR rates among adult patients with > T2N0M0 or low T2N0 rectal cancer. RESULTS Between 2020 and 2023, we enrolled 37 patients, of whom 27 (73 %) had at least one high-risk feature (cT4, extramural vascular invasion [EMVI], N2, threatened circumferential resection margin, positive lateral node). At primary endpoint assessment, nine (24 %) patients had cCR on both endoscopy and MRI, and pursued organ preservation (OP). Fourteen (38 %) patients had cCR only on endoscopy, nine of whom pursued OP. Of the 18 patients who pursued OP, nine had local regrowth at two years from radiotherapy start, with two-year TME-free survival of 26 %. Baseline factors significantly associated with not achieving OP included age < 50 years and T4 disease. At mid-treatment restaging, patients who achieved OP were significantly less likely to have persistent node positivity, EMVI, and endoscopically visible tumor. Grade 3+ adverse events at least possibly attributed to chemotherapy and radiotherapy occured in 51% and 43% of patients, respectively. CONCLUSION Short-course radiotherapy with a boost followed by FOLFIXIRI results in OP in one-quarter of patients with high-risk rectal cancer, with poorer response among younger patients and T4 disease. Mid-treatment response may help guide timely decision-making regarding treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniella Klebaner
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Eleanor Brown
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - George A Fisher
- Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Andrew Shelton
- Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Tyler P Johnson
- Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Shagufta Shaheen
- Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Christopher Chen
- Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Gregory Heestand
- Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Thomas Holden
- Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Jeffrey Bien
- Department of Oncology and Hematology, Kaiser Permanente, Santa Clara, CA, United States
| | - Daniel A King
- Department of Medical Oncology, Northwell Health, New Hyde Park, NY, United States
| | - Aaron J Dawes
- Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Arden M Morris
- Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Natalie Kirilcuk
- Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Cindy Kin
- Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - John Gahagan
- Department of Surgery, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Vipul Sheth
- Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Pejman Ghanouni
- Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Sara Richter
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Lucas Vitzthum
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Elham Rahimy
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Daniel T Chang
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
| | - Erqi L Pollom
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States.
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McCarthy G, Dobrovolny HM. Determining the best mathematical model for implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2025; 22:700-724. [PMID: 40083287 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2025026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/16/2025]
Abstract
At the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, only non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were available to stem the spread of the infection. Much of the early interventions in the US were applied at a state level, with varying levels of strictness and compliance. While NPIs clearly slowed the rate of transmission, it is not clear how these changes are best incorporated into epidemiological models. In order to characterize the effects of early preventative measures, we use a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model and cumulative case counts from US states to analyze the effect of lockdown measures. We test four transition models to simulate the change in transmission rate: instantaneous, linear, exponential, and logarithmic. We find that of the four models examined here, the exponential transition best represents the change in the transmission rate due to implementation of NPIs in the most states, followed by the logistic transition model. The instantaneous and linear models generally lead to poor fits and are the best transition models for the fewest states.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel McCarthy
- Department of Physics & Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76109, USA
| | - Hana M Dobrovolny
- Department of Physics & Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76109, USA
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Gebretekle TK, Albers C. Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review. PLoS One 2025; 20:e0310611. [PMID: 39928636 PMCID: PMC11809814 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2024] [Accepted: 12/18/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many studies examined the impact of behavioural interventions on COVID-19 outcomes. We conducted a systematic review to gain insight into transmission models, following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We included peer-reviewed studies published in English until December 31, 2022, focusing on human subjects, modelling, and examining behavioural interventions during COVID-19 using real data across diverse geographical regions. METHODS We searched seven databases. We used descriptive analysis, network analysis for textual synthesis, and regression analysis to identify the relationship between the basic reproduction number R0 and various characteristics. From 30, 114 articles gathered, 15, 781 met the inclusion criteria. After deduplication, 7, 616 articles remained. The titles and abstracts screening reduced these to 1, 764 articles. Full-text screening reduced this to 270, and risk-of-bias assessment narrowed it to 245 articles. We employed combined criteria for risk of bias assessment, incorporating domains from ROBINS-I and principles for modeling. RESULTS Primary outcomes focused on R0, COVID-19 cases, and transmission rates. The average R0 was 3.184. The vast majority of studies (90.3%) used compartmental models, particularly SEIR models. Social distancing, mask-wearing, and lockdowns were frequently analyzed interventions. Early and strict implementation of these interventions significantly reduced transmission rates. Risk of bias assessment revealed that 62.6% of studies were of low risk, 24.1% moderate, and 9.3% high risks. Common issues included transparency, attrition bias, and confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS This comprehensive review highlights the importance of behavioural interventions in reducing COVID-19 transmission and areas for improving future research transparency and robustness. Our risk of bias criteria offers an important framework for future systematic reviews in modeling studies of interventions. We recommend that future studies enhance transparency in reporting and address common biases such as attrition and confounding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tsega Kahsay Gebretekle
- Department of Psychometrics & Statistics, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Casper Albers
- Department of Psychometrics & Statistics, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Hsieh VCR, Tsai MH, Chiang HC, Weng MY. Lessons learned from Taiwan's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: successes, challenges, and implications for future pandemics. Eur J Public Health 2025; 35:153-162. [PMID: 39566089 PMCID: PMC11832153 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckae185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2024] Open
Abstract
This study aims to provide an investigation of the containment and mitigation strategies encompassing the entirety of the pandemic in Taiwan. This descriptive, observational study used COVID-19 data from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, and analysed news releases from the Taiwanese health authority. Statistics provided evidence of outbreak severity through infection and mortality rates, while qualitative results from the document review offered insights on the actions taken by the government chronologically from 2 February 2020 to 31 December 2022. All three countries experienced significant infection peaks in 2022. Taiwan had two distinct peaks, one in late May and another in October. South Korea had a single, high peak in late March, while Japan experienced multiple smaller waves, the biggest wave in August. Similarly, weekly mortality rates peaked in 2022 for all three countries after a surge in their infected cases, with Taiwan (5.15/100 000) and South Korea (4.69/100 000) having higher rates than Japan (1.65/100 000). Results from qualitative analysis showed that Taiwan's early containment measures might have delayed the epidemic curve, allowing time for better preparation and proactive responses. However, the lack of a clear transition plan and the vulnerability of the elderly population contributed to higher mortality and infection rates. Despite ongoing challenges, Taiwan avoided nationwide lockdowns and relied on targeted restrictions to control transmission of the virus. Results of this article offer the narratives, reflections, and experiences from the case of Taiwan which may potentially present promising opportunities for impact in other settings and for future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh
- Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Min-Hua Tsai
- Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hua-Chueh Chiang
- Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Yi Weng
- Department of Health Services Administration, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
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Odani S, Honda H, Tabuchi T. Association of COVID-19 Vaccine Intake with Diagnosis, Hospitalization, and Oxygenation/Ventilation: A Longitudinal Analysis, 2021-2022, Japan. Vaccines (Basel) 2024; 12:1264. [PMID: 39591166 PMCID: PMC11598305 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines12111264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2024] [Revised: 10/29/2024] [Accepted: 11/06/2024] [Indexed: 11/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Japan's COVID-19 vaccination campaign achieved high coverage by 2022, yet limited national-level data has hindered evaluations of vaccine effectiveness. This study analyzed the impact of vaccines on infection outcomes while considering socioeconomic and behavioral factors in the Japanese population. Methods: A total of 19,482 individuals aged 16-81 years, who participated in both the 2021 (baseline) and 2022 (follow-up) waves of an Internet-based survey, were analyzed. Vaccine intake during the follow-up period (0/1/2+ doses) served as the exposure, while outcomes included COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and receipt of oxygenation/ventilation. Adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) were calculated using Poisson regression models, controlling for baseline characteristics such as vaccination status, infection history, underlying medical conditions, socioeconomic factors, and preventive behaviors. Results: Overall, 81.6% of respondents received at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine during the follow-up period. Among those without COVID-19 history at baseline (N = 19,182), 10.9% were diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past year, and 6.6% in the past 2 months. Respondents who received 1 or 2+ doses had lower diagnosis rates (APR = 0.76 and 0.43, respectively). For the past 2 months, only those with 2+ doses showed a significant reduction (APR = 0.51). Among 1999 diagnosed cases, those with 1 or 2+ doses showed lower hospitalization and oxygenation/ventilation likelihoods, though these differences were not statistically significant. Conclusions: The results supported the protective effect of COVID-19 vaccines against infection. Continued research is essential to further clarify the complex influence of vaccination, individual characteristics, and preventive behaviors on COVID-19 morbidity at the population level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satomi Odani
- The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, Tokyo 106-6234, Japan;
| | - Hitoshi Honda
- Department of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Fujita Health University, Toyoake 470-1192, Japan;
| | - Takahiro Tabuchi
- Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai 980-8575, Japan
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Snir S, Chen Y, Yechezkel M, Patalon T, Shmueli E, Brandeau ML, Yamin D. Changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS): a two-year prospective cohort study in Israel. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2024; 42:100934. [PMID: 38800112 PMCID: PMC11127217 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.100934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2024] [Revised: 04/26/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024]
Abstract
Background Limited knowledge exists regarding behavioral and biomarker shifts during the period from respiratory infection exposure to testing decisions (the diagnostic decision period), a key phase affecting transmission dynamics and public health strategy development. This study aims to examine the changes in behavior and biomarkers during the diagnostic decision period for COVID-19, influenza, and group A streptococcus (GAS). Methods We analyzed data from a two-year prospective cohort study involving 4795 participants in Israel, incorporating smartwatch data, self-reported symptoms, and medical records. Our analysis focused on three critical phases: the digital incubation period (from exposure to physiological anomalies detected by smartwatches), the symptomatic incubation period (from exposure to onset of symptoms), and the diagnostic decision period for influenza, COVID-19, and GAS. Findings The delay between initial symptom reporting and testing was 39 [95% confidence interval (CI): 34-45] hours for influenza, 53 [95% CI: 49-58] hours for COVID-19, and 38 [95% CI: 32-46] hours for GAS, with 73 [95% CI: 67-78] hours from anomalies in heart measures to symptom onset for influenza, 23 [95% CI: 18-27] hours for COVID-19, and 62 [95% CI: 54-68] hours for GAS. Analyzing the entire course of infection of each individual, the greatest changes in heart rates were detected 67.6 [95% CI: 62.8-72.5] hours prior to testing for influenza, 64.1 [95% CI: 61.4-66.7] hours prior for COVID-19, and 58.2 [95% CI: 52.1-64.2] hours prior for GAS. In contrast, the greatest reduction in physical activities and social contacts occurred after testing. Interpretation These findings highlight the delayed response of patients in seeking medical attention and reducing social contacts and demonstrate the transformative potential of smartwatches for identifying infection and enabling timely public health interventions. Funding This work was supported by the European Research Council, project #949850, the Israel Science Foundation (ISF), grant No. 3409/19, within the Israel Precision Medicine Partnership program, and a Koret Foundation gift for Smart Cities and Digital Living.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shachar Snir
- Industrial Engineering Department, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Yupeng Chen
- Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Matan Yechezkel
- Industrial Engineering Department, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Tal Patalon
- Kahn Sagol Maccabi Research and Innovation Center, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Erez Shmueli
- Industrial Engineering Department, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Margaret L. Brandeau
- Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Dan Yamin
- Industrial Engineering Department, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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Huang X, Kong QY, Wan X, Huang Y, Wang R, Wang X, Li Y, Wu Y, Guan C, Wang J, Zhang Y. From the Public Health Perspective: a Scalable Model for Improving Epidemiological Testing Efficacy in Low- and Middle-Income Areas. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e55194. [PMID: 38857063 PMCID: PMC11196907 DOI: 10.2196/55194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 04/02/2024] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024] Open
Abstract
The globe is an organically linked whole, and in the pandemic era, COVID-19 has brought heavy public safety threats and economic costs to humanity as almost all countries began to pay more attention to taking steps to minimize the risk of harm to society from sudden-onset diseases. It is worth noting that in some low- and middle-income areas, where the environment for epidemic detection is complex, the causative and comorbid factors are numerous, and where public health resources are scarce. It is often more difficult than in other areas to obtain timely and effective detection and control in the event of widespread virus transmission, which, in turn, is a constant threat to local and global public health security. Pandemics are preventable through effective disease surveillance systems, with nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) as the mainstay of the control system, effectively controlling the spread of epidemics and preventing larger outbreaks. However, current state-of-the-art NPIs are not applicable in low- and middle-income areas and tend to be decentralized and costly. Based on a 3-year case study of SARS-CoV-2 preventive detection in low-income areas in south-central China, we explored a strategic model for enhancing disease detection efficacy in low- and middle-income areas. For the first time, we propose an integrated and comprehensive approach that covers structural, social, and personal strategies to optimize the epidemic surveillance system in low- and middle-income areas. This model can improve the local epidemic detection efficiency, ensure the health care needs of more people, reduce the public health costs in low- and middle-income areas in a coordinated manner, and ensure and strengthen local public health security sustainably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuefeng Huang
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Qian-Yi Kong
- School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Peking, China
| | - Xiaowen Wan
- School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, China
| | - Yating Huang
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Rongrong Wang
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Xiaoxue Wang
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Yingying Li
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Yuqing Wu
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Chongyuan Guan
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Junyang Wang
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
| | - Yuanyuan Zhang
- School of Public Health, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
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Köntös Z. Lessons should be learned: Why did we not learn from the Spanish flu? SAGE Open Med 2024; 12:20503121241256820. [PMID: 38826825 PMCID: PMC11143818 DOI: 10.1177/20503121241256820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 06/04/2024] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 has become a global pandemic that has affected millions of people worldwide. The disease is caused by the novel coronavirus that was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The virus is highly contagious and can spread from person to person through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes. The symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, and shortness of breath, and in severe cases, it can lead to respiratory failure, pneumonia, and death. The Spanish flu, caused by the H1N1 influenza virus, and the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are two of the most significant global health crises in history. While these two pandemics occurred almost a century apart and are caused by different types of viruses, there are notable similarities in their impact, transmission, and public health responses. Here are some key similarities between the Spanish flu and SARS-CoV-2. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1919 stands as one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, claiming the lives of an estimated 50 million people worldwide. Its impact reverberated across continents, leaving behind a legacy of devastation and lessons that, unfortunately, seem to have been forgotten or ignored over time. Despite the advancements in science, medicine, and public health in the intervening century, humanity found itself facing a strikingly similar situation with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, amidst the search for effective measures to combat COVID-19, novel approaches such as iodine complexes, such as Iodine-V has emerged as potential interventions, reflecting the ongoing quest for innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of pandemics. This raises the poignant question: why did we not learn from the Spanish flu?
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Zangeneh SZ, Skalland T, Yuhas K, Emel L, Tapsoba JDD, Reed D, Amos CI, Donnell D, Moore A, Justman J. Adaptive Time-Location Sampling for COMPASS: A SARS-CoV-2 Prevalence Study in Fifteen Diverse Communities in the United States. Epidemiology 2024; 35:389-397. [PMID: 38079239 PMCID: PMC11321454 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 has placed a disproportionate burden on underserved racial and ethnic groups, community members working in essential industries, those living in areas of high population density, and those reliant on in-person services such as transportation. The goal of this study was to estimate the cross-sectional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (active SARS-CoV-2 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection) in children and adults attending public venues in 15 sociodemographically diverse communities in the United States and to develop a statistical design that could be rigorously implemented amidst unpredictable stay-at-home COVID-19 guidelines. METHODS We used time-location sampling with complex sampling involving stratification, clustering of units, and unequal probabilities of selection to recruit individuals from selected communities. We safely conducted informed consent, specimen collection, and face-to-face interviews outside of public venues immediately following recruitment. RESULTS We developed an innovative sampling design that adapted to constraints such as closure of venues, changing infection hotspots, and uncertain policies. We updated both the sampling frame and the selection probabilities over time using information acquired from prior weeks. We created site-specific survey weights that adjusted sampling probabilities for nonresponse and calibrated to county-level margins on age and sex at birth. CONCLUSIONS Although the study itself was specific to COVID-19, the strategies presented in this article could serve as a case study that can be adapted for performing population-level inferences in similar settings and could help inform rapid and effective responses to future global public health challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sahar Z Zangeneh
- From the RTI International, Research Triangle, NC
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | | | | | - Lynda Emel
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
| | | | | | | | - Deborah Donnell
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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Alabri A. Compliance with COVID-19 Physical Distancing Mandates in Oman: The Role of Health Literacy and Internal Health Locus of Control. Health Lit Res Pract 2024; 8:e69-e78. [PMID: 38713898 PMCID: PMC11075997 DOI: 10.3928/24748307-20240424-01] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 11/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Research indicates that the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) physical distancing mandates is influenced by several individual factors, including health literacy; internal health locus of control (IHLOC), the belief that physical distancing can reduce COVID-19 risk; social norms; self-efficacy; and perceptions of the benefits and barriers associated with distancing. However, further investigation is needed to understand the links between these factors and compliance intentions. OBJECTIVE This study investigates the mechanism linking these factors with the intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates. METHODS A total of 759 participants (Mean age = 29.13, standard deviation [SD] = 8.33; 68.5% women) were surveyed online from September 2020 to October 2020. Data were analyzed using ANOVA (analysis of variance) and structural equation modeling. KEY RESULTS Health literacy was associated with more perceived benefits (β = .175, p = .001), greater self-efficacy (β = .193, p < .001), and less perceived barriers (β = -.391, p < .001). IHLOC was significantly associated with greater perceived benefits (β = .156, p = .007) and self-efficacy (β = .294, p < .001). Family descriptive norms were significantly associated with fewer perceived barriers (β = -.276, p < .001), while injunctive norms were associated with more perceived benefits (β = .202, p = .001) and higher self-efficacy (β = .299, p < .001). Intentions to adhere to physical distancing mandates were significantly associated with past compliance (β = .427, p < .001) and perceived barriers (β = -.205, p < .001) and benefits (β = .295, p < .001). Post-hoc mediation analyses revealed several small yet significant indirect effects, highlighting the complex pathways shaping adherence intentions. CONCLUSIONS This study identifies how health literacy, IHLOC, social norms, perceived benefits and barriers, and self-efficacy intricately shape intentions to comply with physical distancing mandates. These findings offer valuable implications for public health policy and interventions. [HLRP: Health Literacy Research and Practice. 2024;8(2):e69-e78.].
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Affiliation(s)
- Amna Alabri
- Address correspondence to Amna Alabri, PhD, Department of Mass Communication, University of Technology and Applied Sciences, P. O. Box 699, Nizwa, Postal Code 611, Nizwa;
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Lawrence A. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public Health Measures During Infectious Disease Outbreaks: A Systematic Review. Cureus 2024; 16:e55893. [PMID: 38595888 PMCID: PMC11003486 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.55893] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/10/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Over the previous three decades, the incidence of infectious disease outbreaks has considerably increased and the trend is expected to increase further. Public health measures are essential for controlling and preventing emerging outbreaks of infectious illnesses. This study is aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of public health measures during infectious disease outbreaks by summarizing the outcomes from the available evidence in the literature. A systematic review was carried out through a detailed search strategy using specific keywords applied across different electronic databases, including the Science Direct, PubMed, and EMBASE databases. Studies published between 2015 and 2024 were included with a focus on cohorts, clinical trials, longitudinal studies, case-control, and quasi-experimental studies. Low-quality studies and those published before 2015 along with incorrect findings or measures were excluded. A standardized form was used for data extraction. The quality of included studies and the risk of bias were assessed through relevant techniques. The obtained data was narrative synthesized and findings were organized systematically. The reviewed studies revealed that public health measures are considerably effective against infectious disease outbreaks. The success of various measures such as social isolation, confinement measures, and public education on hygiene against different outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases has been well-established in the literature. Moreover, the timing of intervention application plays a vital role in their success. The implementation in the early phase of an outbreak is highly effective, as it protects more people from infection and controls the overall burden of the disease. The systematic review provided valuable insights into the efficiency of public health measures in monitoring outbreaks of infectious illnesses. The main findings suggest that appropriate public health interventions are effective in controlling the incidence of contagious disease outbreaks. Ongoing research strives to investigate measures that are most effective from the perspective of public health against various transmittable diseases to prevent future outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adewale Lawrence
- Pharmaceutical Medicine, Bioluminux Clinical Research, Naperville, USA
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13
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Mallela A, Chen Y, Lin YT, Miller EF, Neumann J, He Z, Nelson KE, Posner RG, Hlavacek WS. Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States. Bull Math Biol 2024; 86:31. [PMID: 38353870 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-024-01258-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/16/2024]
Abstract
To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abhishek Mallela
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
| | - Ye Chen
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Yen Ting Lin
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
- Information Sciences Group, Computer, Computational and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
| | - Ely F Miller
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Jacob Neumann
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Zhili He
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Kathryn E Nelson
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Richard G Posner
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - William S Hlavacek
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA.
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA.
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14
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Trejo I, Hung PY, Matrajt L. Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0002136. [PMID: 38252671 PMCID: PMC10802966 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023, 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Imelda Trejo
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Pei-Yao Hung
- Institute For Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Laura Matrajt
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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15
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Mallela A, Chen Y, Lin YT, Miller EF, Neumann J, He Z, Nelson KE, Posner RG, Hlavacek WS. Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in four metropolitan areas of the United States. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2021.10.19.21265223. [PMID: 34704095 PMCID: PMC8547527 DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.19.21265223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data. One-Sentence Summary Using a compartmental model parameterized to reproduce available reports of new Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, we quantified the impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) on regional epidemics in the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix.
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Zuccarelli J, Seaman L, Rader K. Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Consumer Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the US. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 21:67. [PMID: 38248532 PMCID: PMC10815148 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph21010067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Revised: 01/02/2024] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 01/23/2024]
Abstract
The initial outbreak of COVID-19 during late December 2019 and the subsequent global pandemic markedly changed consumer mobility patterns worldwide, largely in response to government-ordered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, we investigate these changes as they relate to the initial spread of COVID-19 within two states-Massachusetts and Michigan. Specifically, we use linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between four NPIs and individuals' point-of-sale (POS) credit card transactions, as well as the relationship between subsequent changes in POS transactions and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Our analysis reveals a significant negative association between NPIs and daily POS transactions, particularly a dose-response relationship, in which stringent workplace closures, stay-at-home requirements, and gathering restrictions were all associated with decreased POS transactions. We also uncover a significant positive association between 12-day lagged changes in POS transactions compared to pre-pandemic baselines and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Overall, our study supports previous findings that early NPIs reduced human mobility and COVID-19 transmission in the US, providing policymakers with quantitative evidence concerning the effectiveness of NPIs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Zuccarelli
- The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;
- Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;
| | - Laura Seaman
- The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;
| | - Kevin Rader
- Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;
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17
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Liu J, Ouyang N, Mizrahi A, Kornides ML. Social Distancing in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Associated Factors, Health Outcomes, and Implications. FAMILY & COMMUNITY HEALTH 2024; 47:80-94. [PMID: 37681938 DOI: 10.1097/fch.0000000000000367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/09/2023]
Abstract
Social distancing has reemerged as a public health measure for containing the spread of COVID-19. This integrative review aims to analyze the historical use of social distancing, the current application during COVID-19, individual factors that affect social distancing practices, and consequential health outcomes. We analyzed relevant literature from searches conducted on Scopus, PubMed, and PsycINFO. We found that resources, culture, age, gender, and personality are associated with the degree to which people practice social distancing. Furthermore, social distancing changes our lifestyles and behavior and results in multifaceted health outcomes, including decreased physical activity and sunlight exposure, increased weight gain, and impaired sleep quality. On the positive side, social distancing has been linked to reduced crime rates and environmental damage, as well as better social and family ties. Future interventions may be utilized to increase adherence to social distancing practices and to mitigate the negative health effects of social distancing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianghong Liu
- Department of Family and Community Health, School of Nursing (Dr Liu), School of Nursing (Ms Ouyang and Dr Kornides), School of Arts and Sciences (Ms Mizrahi), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; and Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut (Ms Ouyang)
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18
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Chang SC, Fang CT. Special issue: Taiwan model against COVID-19. J Formos Med Assoc 2024; 123 Suppl 1:S1. [PMID: 38177054 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2024.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Shan-Chwen Chang
- Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan; School of Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Tai Fang
- Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan; School of Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
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19
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Tatsukawa Y, Arefin MR, Kuga K, Tanimoto J. An agent-based nested model integrating within-host and between-host mechanisms to predict an epidemic. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0295954. [PMID: 38100436 PMCID: PMC10723725 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2023] [Accepted: 12/01/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has remarkably heightened concerns regarding the prediction of communicable disease spread. This study introduces an innovative agent-based modeling approach. In this model, the quantification of human-to-human transmission aligns with the dynamic variations in the viral load within an individual, termed "within-host" and adheres to the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process, referred to as "between-host." Variations in the viral load over time affect the infectivity between individual agents. This model diverges from the traditional SIR model, which employs a constant transmission probability, by incorporating a dynamic, time-dependent transmission probability influenced by the viral load in a host agent. The proposed model retains the time-integrated transmission probability characteristic of the conventional SIR model. As observed in this model, the overall epidemic size remains consistent with the predictions of the standard SIR model. Nonetheless, compared to predictions based on the classical SIR process, notable differences existed in the peak number of the infected individuals and the timing of this peak. These nontrivial differences are induced by the direct correlation between the time-evolving transmission probability and the viral load within a host agent. The developed model can inform targeted intervention strategies and public health policies by providing detailed insights into disease spread dynamics, crucial for effectively managing epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuichi Tatsukawa
- Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
- MRI Research Associates Inc., Tokyo, Japan
| | - Md. Rajib Arefin
- Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
- Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Kazuki Kuga
- Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
- Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Jun Tanimoto
- Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
- Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
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20
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Trejo I, Hung PY, Matrajt L. Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.06.15.23291472. [PMID: 37986918 PMCID: PMC10659519 DOI: 10.1101/2023.06.15.23291472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Background There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. Methods We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. Results We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters. Covid19Vaxplorer allows users in 183 regions in the world to compare several vaccination strategies simultaneously, adjusting parameters to their local epidemics, infrastructure and logistics. Covid19Vaxplorer is an online, free, user-friendly tool that facilitates evidence-based decision making for vaccine distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Imelda Trejo
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, US
| | - Pei-Yao Hung
- Institute For Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, US
| | - Laura Matrajt
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, US
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, US
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Evans MV, Ramiadantsoa T, Kauffman K, Moody J, Nunn CL, Rabezara JY, Raharimalala P, Randriamoria TM, Soarimalala V, Titcomb G, Garchitorena A, Roche B. Sociodemographic Variables Can Guide Prioritized Testing Strategies for Epidemic Control in Resource-Limited Contexts. J Infect Dis 2023; 228:1189-1197. [PMID: 36961853 PMCID: PMC11007394 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 02/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Targeted surveillance allows public health authorities to implement testing and isolation strategies when diagnostic resources are limited, and can be implemented via the consideration of social network topologies. However, it remains unclear how to implement such surveillance and control when network data are unavailable. METHODS We evaluated the ability of sociodemographic proxies of degree centrality to guide prioritized testing of infected individuals compared to known degree centrality. Proxies were estimated via readily available sociodemographic variables (age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, household size). We simulated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics via a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered individual-based model on 2 contact networks from rural Madagascar to test applicability of these findings to low-resource contexts. RESULTS Targeted testing using sociodemographic proxies performed similarly to targeted testing using known degree centralities. At low testing capacity, using proxies reduced infection burden by 22%-33% while using 20% fewer tests, compared to random testing. By comparison, using known degree centrality reduced the infection burden by 31%-44% while using 26%-29% fewer tests. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrate that incorporating social network information into epidemic control strategies is an effective countermeasure to low testing capacity and can be implemented via sociodemographic proxies when social network data are unavailable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michelle V Evans
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs : Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Tanjona Ramiadantsoa
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs : Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Kayla Kauffman
- Department of Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - James Moody
- Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Charles L Nunn
- Department of Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Jean Yves Rabezara
- Department of Science and Technology, University of Antsiranana, Antsiranana, Madagascar
| | | | - Toky M Randriamoria
- Association Vahatra, Antananarivo, Madagascar
- Zoologie et Biodiversité Animale, Domaine Sciences et Technologies, Université d’Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Voahangy Soarimalala
- Association Vahatra, Antananarivo, Madagascar
- Institut des Sciences et Techniques de l’Environnement, Université de Fianarantsoa, Fianarantsoa, Madagascar
| | - Georgia Titcomb
- Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Andres Garchitorena
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs : Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
- Pivot, Ifanadiana, Madagascar
| | - Benjamin Roche
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs : Écologie, Génétique, Évolution et Contrôle, Université Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
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22
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Bagasra A, Allen CT, Doan S. Perceived Effectiveness of COVID-19 Preventive Practices and Behavioral Intention: Survey of a Representative Adult Sample in the United States. JMIR Hum Factors 2023; 10:e39919. [PMID: 37815862 PMCID: PMC10566581 DOI: 10.2196/39919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2022] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 07/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Using existing models of behavioral health promotion, specifically the Extended Parallel Process Model, previous research has identified factors that may impact engagement in preventive health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic such as perceived threat, perceived susceptibility to the threat, perceived severity, and perceived efficacy. OBJECTIVE This study aims to examine the role of perceived effectiveness of COVID-19 preventive behaviors, perceived susceptibility, perceived threat, and perceived severity of COVID-19 in participants' intentions to engage in Centers for Disease Control (CDC)-recommended individual health behaviors in the first year of the pandemic. METHODS In October 2020, a representative sample of 506 US adults completed a web-based survey through the RAND American Life Panel. RESULTS The study primarily found that participants who perceived that CDC-recommended health practices were effective had stronger intentions to engage in those practices. The second strongest correlate was participants' perceived severity of COVID-19 across the United States. Perceived effectiveness of recommended practices accounted for the largest variance in behavioral intention. However, analysis of individual behaviors indicated a mismatch in the behaviors perceived to be the most effective (avoiding sick people and mask-wearing) and those participants indicated intention to engage in (throwing away used tissues, avoiding sick people, and coughing into their elbows) in the next 30 days. CONCLUSIONS The authors recommend tailoring public health messaging to address the perceived threat of COVID-19 and self-efficacy. Thus, health promotion efforts should emphasize the effectiveness of CDC-recommended practices while highlighting the pandemic's severity. Additionally, rebuilding trust in public health messaging and messengers is necessary to increase perceived self-efficacy. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, health messaging must continue to promote and build trust in CDC-recommended health practices and educate regarding the efficacy of vaccination and other preventive behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anisah Bagasra
- Department of Psychological Science, Kennesaw State University, Kennesaw, GA, United States
| | | | - Sara Doan
- Department of Writing, Rhetoric and Cultures, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
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Button AM, Webster EK, Kracht CL, Hendrick C, Okely A, Chong KH, Cross P, Staiano AE. Validation of remote assessment of preschool children's anthropometrics and motor skills. Front Digit Health 2023; 5:1168618. [PMID: 37519895 PMCID: PMC10373874 DOI: 10.3389/fdgth.2023.1168618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 08/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Remotely delivered treatment and research procedures were rapidly adopted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is unclear if these measures are valid. The purpose of this study was to compare the validity of anthropometry and motor skill proficiency measurements collected in a remote-setting to in-person setting among a sample of children ages 3-4 years. Methods Child anthropometry and motor skill performance were measured in-person by trained assessors and by parents at home with remote supervision via videoconference by trained assessors. The following measures from the National Institutes of Health Toolbox were collected: anthropometry (height and weight), manual dexterity/manipulation (9-hole pegboard), motor coordination and agility (supine timed up and go), lower body strength (standing long jump), and postural stability (one-leg standing balance). Differences in expert and parent-based measurements were assessed using Bland-Altman plots, paired samples t-tests, and Pearson correlations. Results A total of n = 14 children completed the assessments. No significant differences were observed between measurement locations for weight and motor skills (p > .05). Remote measurement of height (M = 101.1 cm, SD = 5.40) was significantly greater than in-person measurements (M = 98.2 cm, SD = 5.16); p < .0001. Discussion Remote measurements of motor skills and weight are valid assessments for researchers and clinicians to utilize in young children. Remote assessment with guidance offers comparable and valid estimates as in-person assessment, potentially offering a solution to resource-constricted barriers in research and access to care. There is an opportunity for researchers to fine-tune remote height and individual-level assessment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyssa M. Button
- Division of Population and Public Health Science, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
| | - E. Kipling Webster
- Department of Kinesiology, Recreation, and Sport Studies, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, United States
| | - Chelsea L. Kracht
- Division of Population and Public Health Science, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
| | - Chelsea Hendrick
- Division of Population and Public Health Science, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
| | - Anthony Okely
- Early Start and School of Health and Society, Faculty of the Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Kar Hau Chong
- Early Start and School of Health and Society, Faculty of the Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Penny Cross
- Early Start and School of Health and Society, Faculty of the Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Amanda E. Staiano
- Division of Population and Public Health Science, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA, United States
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24
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Choi S, Kim C, Park KH, Kim JH. Direct indicators of social distancing effectiveness in COVID-19 outbreak stages: a correlational analysis of case contacts and population mobility in Korea. Epidemiol Health 2023; 45:e2023065. [PMID: 37448123 PMCID: PMC10876423 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2023065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The effectiveness of social distancing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been evaluated using the magnitude of changes in population mobility. This study aimed to investigate a direct indicator-namely, the number of close contacts per patient with confirmed COVID-19. METHODS From week 7, 2020 to week 43, 2021, population movement changes were calculated from the data of two Korean telecommunication companies and Google in accordance with social distancing stringency levels. Data on confirmed cases and their close contacts among residents of Gyeonggi Province, Korea were combined at each stage. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to compare the movement data with the change in the number of contacts for each confirmed case calculated by stratification according to age group. The reference value of the population movement data was set using the value before mid-February 2020, considering each data's characteristics. RESULTS In the age group of 18 or younger, the number of close contacts per confirmed case decreased or increased when the stringency level was strengthened or relaxed, respectively. In adults, the correlation was relatively low, with no correlation between the change in the number of close contacts per confirmed case and the change in population movement after the commencement of vaccination for adults. CONCLUSIONS The effectiveness of governmental social distancing policies against COVID-19 can be evaluated using the number of close contacts per confirmed case as a direct indicator, especially for each age group. Such an analysis can facilitate policy changes for specific groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sojin Choi
- Gyeonggi Infectious Disease Control Center, Health Bureau, Gyeonggi Provincial Government, Suwon, Korea
| | - Chanhee Kim
- Gyeonggi Infectious Disease Control Center, Health Bureau, Gyeonggi Provincial Government, Suwon, Korea
| | - Kun-Hee Park
- Gyeonggi Infectious Disease Control Center, Health Bureau, Gyeonggi Provincial Government, Suwon, Korea
| | - Jong-Hun Kim
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
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25
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Morris V, Baptist-Mohseni N, Kronstein NB, Murphy CB, Yunus F, Thibault T, Livet A, Mahmoud A, Pétrin-Pomerleau P, Krank M, Thompson K, Conrod P, Stewart SH, Keough MT. Hazardous Drinking Mediates the Relation Between Externalizing Personality and Reduced Adherence to COVID-19 Public Health Guidelines in University Students. EMERGING ADULTHOOD (PRINT) 2023; 11:797-803. [PMID: 38603422 PMCID: PMC9676110 DOI: 10.1177/21676968221140449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
Using a multigroup path analysis, we examined if hazardous alcohol use mediated the relations between elevated externalizing personality traits (i.e., impulsivity or sensation seeking) and reduced adherence to COVID-19 public health guidelines. We hypothesized that those high in externalizing personality traits would demonstrate less adherence to public health guidelines and that hazardous alcohol use would mediate this relationship. First- and second-year undergraduates (N = 1232; ages 18-25) from five Canadian universities participated in a cross-sectional survey between January to April 2021. Individuals with higher levels of impulsive or sensation seeking personality traits demonstrated poorer adherence to COVID-19 public health guidelines and these relations were mediated by hazardous alcohol use. Results suggest that hazardous drinking is an important target for students high in impulsivity and sensation seeking to increase their adherence to public health guidelines and thereby help control viral spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vanessa Morris
- Department of Psychology, University of New Brunswick, Saint John, NB, Canada
| | | | | | - Clayton B. Murphy
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Fakir Yunus
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Tabatha Thibault
- Department of Psychology, St Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
| | - Audrey Livet
- CHU Sainte-Justine Research Center, Montréal, QC, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry and Addiction, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Aram Mahmoud
- Department of Psychiatry and Addiction, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | | | - Marvin Krank
- Department of Psychology, The University of British Columbia, Okanagan
Campus, Kelowna, BC, Canada
| | - Kara Thompson
- Department of Psychology, St Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
| | - Patricia Conrod
- CHU Sainte-Justine Research Center, Montréal, QC, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry and Addiction, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Sherry H. Stewart
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
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26
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Yavari A, Korala H, Georgakopoulos D, Kua J, Bagha H. Sazgar IoT: A Device-Centric IoT Framework and Approximation Technique for Efficient and Scalable IoT Data Processing. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:5211. [PMID: 37299938 PMCID: PMC10255853 DOI: 10.3390/s23115211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2023] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The Internet of Things (IoT) plays a fundamental role in monitoring applications; however, existing approaches relying on cloud and edge-based IoT data analysis encounter issues such as network delays and high costs, which can adversely impact time-sensitive applications. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an IoT framework called Sazgar IoT. Unlike existing solutions, Sazgar IoT leverages only IoT devices and IoT data analysis approximation techniques to meet the time-bounds of time-sensitive IoT applications. In this framework, the computing resources onboard the IoT devices are utilised to process the data analysis tasks of each time-sensitive IoT application. This eliminates the network delays associated with transferring large volumes of high-velocity IoT data to cloud or edge computers. To ensure that each task meets its application-specific time-bound and accuracy requirements, we employ approximation techniques for the data analysis tasks of time-sensitive IoT applications. These techniques take into account the available computing resources and optimise the processing accordingly. To evaluate the effectiveness of Sazgar IoT, experimental validation has been conducted. The results demonstrate that the framework successfully meets the time-bound and accuracy requirements of the COVID-19 citizen compliance monitoring application by effectively utilising the available IoT devices. The experimental validation further confirms that Sazgar IoT is an efficient and scalable solution for IoT data processing, addressing existing network delay issues for time-sensitive applications and significantly reducing the cost related to cloud and edge computing devices procurement, deployment, and maintenance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Yavari
- 6G Research and Innovation Lab, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia
- School of Science, Computing and Engineering Technologies, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia; (D.G.); (H.B.)
| | - Harindu Korala
- Institute of Railway Technology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia;
| | - Dimitrios Georgakopoulos
- School of Science, Computing and Engineering Technologies, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia; (D.G.); (H.B.)
| | - Jonathan Kua
- School of Information Technology, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC 3220, Australia;
| | - Hamid Bagha
- School of Science, Computing and Engineering Technologies, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia; (D.G.); (H.B.)
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27
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Panik RT, Watkins K, Ederer D. Metrics of Mobility: Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Travel Behavior. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 2023; 2677:583-596. [PMID: 38603318 PMCID: PMC9666410 DOI: 10.1177/03611981221131812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted typical travel behavior worldwide. In the United States (U.S.), government entities took action to limit its spread through public health messaging to encourage reduced mobility and thus reduce the spread of the virus. Within statewide responses to COVID-19, however, there were different responses locally. Likely some of these variations were a result of individual attitudes toward the government and health messaging, but there is also likely a portion of the effects that were because of the character of the communities. In this research, we summarize county-level characteristics that are known to affect travel behavior for 404 counties in the U.S., and we investigate correlates of mobility between April and September (2020). We do this through application of three metrics that are derived via changepoint analysis-initial post-disruption mobility index, changepoint on restoration of a "new normal," and recovered mobility index. We find that variables for employment sectors are significantly correlated and had large effects on mobility during the pandemic. The state dummy variables are significant, suggesting that counties within the same state behaved more similarly to one another than to counties in different states. Our findings indicate that few travel characteristics that typically correlate with travel behavior are related to pandemic mobility, and that the number of COVID-19 cases may not be correlated with mobility outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachael Thompson Panik
- School of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
| | - Kari Watkins
- School of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
| | - David Ederer
- School of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
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28
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Brum AA, Vasconcelos GL, Duarte-Filho GC, Ospina R, Almeida FAG, Macêdo AMS. ModInterv COVID-19: An online platform to monitor the evolution of epidemic curves. Appl Soft Comput 2023; 137:110159. [PMID: 36874079 PMCID: PMC9969754 DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2023.110159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Revised: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2023]
Abstract
We present the software ModInterv as an informatics tool to monitor, in an automated and user-friendly manner, the evolution and trend of COVID-19 epidemic curves, both for cases and deaths. The ModInterv software uses parametric generalized growth models, together with LOWESS regression analysis, to fit epidemic curves with multiple waves of infections for countries around the world as well as for states and cities in Brazil and the USA. The software automatically accesses publicly available COVID-19 databases maintained by the Johns Hopkins University (for countries as well as states and cities in the USA) and the Federal University of Viçosa (for states and cities in Brazil). The richness of the implemented models lies in the possibility of quantitatively and reliably detecting the distinct acceleration regimes of the disease. We describe the backend structure of software as well as its practical use. The software helps the user not only to understand the current stage of the epidemic in a chosen location but also to make short term predictions as to how the curves may evolve. The app is freely available on the internet (http://fisica.ufpr.br/modinterv), thus making a sophisticated mathematical analysis of epidemic data readily accessible to any interested user.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arthur A Brum
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Giovani L Vasconcelos
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, 81531-990 Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil
| | - Gerson C Duarte-Filho
- Departamento de Física - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000, São Cristóvão, Sergipe, Brazil
| | - Raydonal Ospina
- Departamento de Estatística, CASTLab, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50740-540, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
- Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal da Bahia, 40170-110, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
| | - Francisco A G Almeida
- Departamento de Física - Universidade Federal de Sergipe, 49100-000, São Cristóvão, Sergipe, Brazil
| | - Antônio M S Macêdo
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
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29
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Davis L, Esposito J. Social Disparities and Social Distancing During the Covid Pandemic. EASTERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL 2023; 49:129-141. [PMID: 37051464 PMCID: PMC10010227 DOI: 10.1057/s41302-023-00241-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
According to Putnam (2000) and Bourdieu (1986), social disparities may result in the formation of narrow social bonds that exacerbate existing social cleavages and impede collective action. Motivated by this insight, we examine the relationship between social disparities and social distancing during the pre-vaccine Covid pandemic in the US. Using a panel of weekly, county-level observations, we find that income, educational and racial disparities are associated with a statistically significant decrease in the social distancing. This result is robust to controls for a wide variety of socioeconomic variables, the Covid infection rate, and a measure of social capital.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lewis Davis
- Department of Economics, Union College, 807 Union Street, Schenectady, NY 12308 USA
| | - Justin Esposito
- Department of Economics, Union College, 807 Union Street, Schenectady, NY 12308 USA
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30
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Daniel D, Krotinger A, Wolbrink T. Changes in utilization of online pediatric educational resources during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Pediatr Investig 2023; 7:49-53. [PMID: 36967742 PMCID: PMC10030686 DOI: 10.1002/ped4.12360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 global pandemic disrupted healthcare, society, and medical education. Use of online video educational content increased at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, across two platforms. This demonstrates the potential of online videos to provide timely information in a scalable fashion, quickly meeting clinical information needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dennis Daniel
- Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
- Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care, and Pain MedicineBoston Children's HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | | | - Traci Wolbrink
- Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
- Department of Anesthesiology, Critical Care, and Pain MedicineBoston Children's HospitalBostonMassachusettsUSA
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31
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Cai Y, Golay MW. A dynamic Bayesian network-based emergency decision-making framework highlighting emergency propagations: Illustrated using the Fukushima nuclear accidents and the Covid-19 pandemic. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2023; 43:480-497. [PMID: 35474323 PMCID: PMC9115531 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13928] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
When facing public emergencies, human societies need to make decisions rapidly in order to mitigate the problems. However, this process can be difficult due to complexity of the emergency scenarios and lack of systematic methods for analyzing them. In the work reported here, we develop a framework based upon dynamic Bayesian networks in order to simulate emergency scenarios and support corresponding decisions. In this framework, we highlight the importance of emergency propagation, which is a critical factor often ignored by decisionmakers. We illustrate that failure of considering emergency propagation can lead to suboptimal mitigation strategies. By incorporating this critical factor, our framework enables decisionmakers to identify optimal response strategies minimizing emergency impacts. Scenarios developed from two public emergencies: the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents and the Covid-19 pandemic, are utilized to illustrate the framework in this paper. Capabilities of the framework in supporting decision making in both events illustrate its generality and adaptability when dealing with complex real-world situations. Our analysis results reveal many similarities between these two seemingly distinct events. This indicates that seemingly unrelated emergencies can share many common features beyond their idiosyncratic characteristics. Valuable mitigation insights can be obtained by analyzing a broad range of past emergencies systematically.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yinan Cai
- Department of Nuclear Science and EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeMassachusettsUSA
| | - Michael W. Golay
- Department of Nuclear Science and EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeMassachusettsUSA
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32
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Childress S, Roberts A, LaBrenz CA, Findley E, Ekueku M, Baiden P. Exploring the lived experiences of women with children during COVID-19: Maternal stress and coping mechanisms. CHILDREN AND YOUTH SERVICES REVIEW 2023; 145:106775. [PMID: 36575706 PMCID: PMC9780639 DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2022.106775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Revised: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a qualitative study of mothers' lived experiences during the COVID-19 lockdown in the United States. An analysis of open-ended interviews with 44 mothers who had children ages zero-to-five identified two main themes: (1) increased stress among mothers; and (2) resilience through the use of coping mechanisms. The findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to higher stress among mothers due to issues of work-family life balance, family and children's needs, decision-making about getting sick, concerns for children's development, and lack of clarity from government officials. Mothers described using a variety of problem-focused and emotion-focused methods to cope with this stress. The lived experiences of mothers during the pandemic highlights the need for innovations in childcare modalities, paid leave policies to relieve stress, and strengthening whole family processes and resilience through the use of coping mechanisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saltanat Childress
- University of Texas-Arlington School of Social Work, 501 W. Mitchell St., Box 19129, Arlington, TX 76019-0129, United States
| | - Alison Roberts
- University of Texas-Arlington School of Social Work, 501 W. Mitchell St., Box 19129, Arlington, TX 76019-0129, United States
| | - Catherine A LaBrenz
- University of Texas-Arlington School of Social Work, 501 W. Mitchell St., Box 19129, Arlington, TX 76019-0129, United States
| | - Erin Findley
- University of Texas-Arlington School of Social Work, 501 W. Mitchell St., Box 19129, Arlington, TX 76019-0129, United States
| | - Modesty Ekueku
- University of Texas-Arlington School of Social Work, 501 W. Mitchell St., Box 19129, Arlington, TX 76019-0129, United States
| | - Philip Baiden
- University of Texas-Arlington School of Social Work, 501 W. Mitchell St., Box 19129, Arlington, TX 76019-0129, United States
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33
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Stevens GWJM, Buyukcan‐Tetik A, Maes M, Weinberg D, Vermeulen S, Visser K, Finkenauer C. Examining socioeconomic disparities in changes in adolescent mental health before and during different phases of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Stress Health 2023; 39:169-181. [PMID: 35727680 PMCID: PMC9349482 DOI: 10.1002/smi.3179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2022] [Revised: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
This study examined socioeconomic disparities in changes in adolescent mental health between fall 2019 (pre-COVID-19), spring 2020 (initial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phase), and fall 2020 (prevailing COVID-19 phase). Using data from 1429 adolescents (Mage = 17.9) from tertiary vocational schools in the Netherlands with n = 386 participating in all three waves, linear and latent basis growth curve models were assessed and multigroup analyses conducted. Results showed a small but significant decrease in life satisfaction and small but significant increases in emotional problems, peer relationship problems, conduct problems, and hyperactivity-inattention problems. For emotional problems and peer relationship problems, increases between pre-COVID-19 and the initial COVID-19 phase were more pronounced than increases between the initial and prevailing COVID-19 phase. In contrast, linear decreases were found for life satisfaction and linear increases for conduct problems and hyperactivity-inattention problems over the course of the study. Mental health patterns were largely comparable for adolescents from families with varying socioeconomic status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gonneke W. J. M. Stevens
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social ScienceFaculty of Social and Behavioural SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | | | - Marlies Maes
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social ScienceFaculty of Social and Behavioural SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands,School Psychology and Development in ContextFaculty of Psychology and Educational SciencesLeuvenBelgium,Research Foundation Flanders (FWO)BrusselBelgium
| | - Dominic Weinberg
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social ScienceFaculty of Social and Behavioural SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Sander Vermeulen
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social ScienceFaculty of Social and Behavioural SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Kirsten Visser
- Department of Human Geography and Spatial PlanningFaculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtthe Netherlands
| | - Catrin Finkenauer
- Department of Interdisciplinary Social ScienceFaculty of Social and Behavioural SciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
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34
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Hong SC, Lee E, Oh S. Unintended health benefits of adopting preventive behaviors during a virus outbreak. HEALTH ECONOMICS 2023; 32:324-342. [PMID: 36408790 DOI: 10.1002/hec.4622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Revised: 10/01/2022] [Accepted: 10/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
This study investigates whether changes in risk perception play a critical role in improving of preventive behaviors and health outcomes by examining the 2009 H1N1 influenza (or swine flu) pandemic in Korea. We employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy by comparing the differential effects of the H1N1 outbreak on the confirmed cases of diseases which can be prevented by preventive behaviors (e.g., intestinal infections) and the cases of diseases which cannot (e.g., injuries). Using unique administrative data from South Korea's National Health Insurance Service (NHIS), we find that the exogenous increase in health risk reduced the incidence of intestinal infections compared to the injuries during the H1N1 influenza outbreak. The reduction was the most substantial among children under five years of age, with a 25.4% decline in cases of intestinal infections relative to injuries. Our findings are robust across various alternative specifications. We provide suggestive evidence that active adoption of preventive behaviors is one of the channels underlying the unexpected decrease in diarrhea cases. The effects, however, faded away shortly after the end of the pandemic and did not last in the long run.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sok Chul Hong
- Department of Economics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Eunju Lee
- Department of Economics, University of California-Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Seojung Oh
- Department of Economics, University of California-Davis, Davis, California, USA
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35
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Adekunle AD, Rubens M, Sedarous M, Tariq T, Okafor PN. Trends in gastrointestinal disease hospitalizations and outcomes during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic. World J Gastroenterol 2023; 29:744-757. [PMID: 36742171 PMCID: PMC9896617 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v29.i4.744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2022] [Revised: 11/05/2022] [Accepted: 11/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The impact of the coronavirus on hospitalizations for gastrointestinal (GI) disease, particularly at a population level is understudied.
AIM To investigate trends in hospitalizations, inpatient endoscopy resource utilization, and outcomes during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdowns.
METHODS Using the California State Inpatient Database for 2018-2020, we explored year-to-year and 2020 month-to-month trends in hospitalizations, length of stay, and inpatient mortality (all-cause & viral pneumonia-specific) for common inpatient GI diagnoses including acute pancreatitis, diverticulitis, cholelithiasis, non-infectious gastroenteritis, upper and lower GI bleeding (LGIB), Clostridium difficile, viral gastroenteritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and acute cholangitis.
RESULTS Disease-specific hospitalizations decreased for all included conditions except nonvariceal upper GI bleeding (NVUGIB), LGIB, and ulcerative colitis (UC) (ptrend < 0.0001). All-cause inpatient mortality was higher in 2020 vs 2019, for acute pancreatitis (P = 0.029), diverticulitis (P = 0.04), NVUGIB (P = 0.003), and Crohn’s disease (P = 0.004). In 2020, hospitalization rates were lowest in April, November, and December. There was no significant corresponding increase in inpatient mortality except in UC (ptrend = 0.048). Viral pneumonia and viral pneumonia complicated by respiratory failure increased (P < 0.001) among GI hospitalizations. Endoscopy utilization within 24 h of admission was unchanged for GI emergencies except NVUGIB (P < 0.001).
CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that hospitalization rates for common GI conditions significantly declined in California during the COVID pandemic, particularly in April, November and December 2020. All-cause mortality was significantly higher among acute pancreatitis, diverticulitis, NVUGIB, and Crohn’s disease hospitalizations. Emergency endoscopy rates were mostly comparable between 2020 and 2019.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Muni Rubens
- Office of Clinical Research, Miami Cancer Institute, Miami, FL 33176, United States
| | - Mary Sedarous
- Division of Internal Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton ON L8S 4L8, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tahniyat Tariq
- Division of Gastroenterology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Redwood City, CA 94063, United States
| | - Philip N Okafor
- Division of Gastroenterology, Stanford University College of Medicine, Redwood City, CA 94063, United States
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Esber A, Teufel M, Jahre L, in der Schmitten J, Skoda EM, Bäuerle A. Predictors of patients' acceptance of video consultation in general practice during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic applying the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology model. Digit Health 2023; 9:20552076221149317. [PMID: 36815005 PMCID: PMC9940186 DOI: 10.1177/20552076221149317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2022] [Accepted: 12/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has led to an increase in remote consultations in health care. This study aimed to assess the acceptance of video consultation as an alternative to face-to-face in-office visits in general practice (GP) and to investigate its drivers and barriers. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in Germany during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic from December 2020 to April 2021. Participants were recruited among patients in 16 GP surgeries. Assessed were sociodemographic and medical data as well as information and communications technology related data. Acceptance of video consultation and its predictors were determined using a modified questionnaire based on a short version of the renowned unified theory of acceptance and use of technology model. Results In total, 371 participants were included in the data analysis. Acceptance of video consultation was moderate. A hierarchical regression revealed acceptance was significantly predicted by the PHQ-2, taking no regular medication, computer proficiency, knowledge about digital health care solutions, no prior use of video consultation, and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology predictors performance expectancy, effort expectancy, and social influence. The extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology model explained significantly more variance than the restricted unified theory of acceptance and use of technology model in acceptance of video consultation. Conclusions In this study computer proficiency, existing knowledge about digital health care solutions and depressive symptoms functioned as drivers to acceptance, no prior use of video consultation could be identified as a potential barrier. Patients with regular medication have been particularly receptive to video consultation. The study confirmed the validity of the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology model in determining acceptance of video consultation. Considering that there is growing demand and acceptance for different approaches to engage with health care providers, additional steps should be taken to establish video consultation as a genuine alternative.
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Affiliation(s)
- André Esber
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Martin Teufel
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany,Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Lisa Jahre
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany,Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Jürgen in der Schmitten
- Institute of General Practice, Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences, Medical Faculty, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Eva-Maria Skoda
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany,Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Alexander Bäuerle
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany,Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany,Alexander Bäuerle, Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
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Zangeneh SZ, Skalland T, Yuhas K, Emel L, De Dieu Tapsoba J, Reed D, Amos CI, Donnell D, Moore A, Justman J. ADAPTIVE TIME LOCATION SAMPLING FOR COMPASS, A SARS-COV-2 PREVALENCE STUDY IN FIFTEEN DIVERSE COMMUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.01.10.23284400. [PMID: 36711739 PMCID: PMC9882424 DOI: 10.1101/2023.01.10.23284400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
The COVPN 5002 (COMPASS) study aimed to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (active SARS-CoV-2 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection) in children and adults attending public venues in 15 socio-demographically diverse communities in the United States. To protect against potential challenges in implementing traditional sampling strategies, time-location sampling (TLS) using complex sampling involving stratification, clustering of units, and unequal probabilities of selection was used to recruit individuals from neighborhoods in selected communities. The innovative design adapted to constraints such as closure of venues; changing infection hotspots; and uncertain policies. Recruitment of children and the elderly raised additional challenges in sample selection and implementation. To address these challenges, the TLS design adaptively updated both the sampling frame and the selection probabilities over time using information acquired from prior weeks. Although the study itself was specific to COVID-19, the strategies presented in this paper could serve as a case study that can be adapted for performing rigorous population-level inferences in similar settings and could help inform rapid and effective responses to future global public health challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sahar Z Zangeneh
- RTI International, Research Triangle NC, U.S.A
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle WA, U.S.A
- University of Washington, Seattle WA, U.S.A
| | | | - Krista Yuhas
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle WA, U.S.A
| | - Lynda Emel
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle WA, U.S.A
| | | | | | | | - Deborah Donnell
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle WA, U.S.A
- University of Washington, Seattle WA, U.S.A
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38
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Borg MG, Borg MA. A Trendline and Predictive Analysis of the First-Wave COVID-19 Infections in Malta. EPIDEMIOLOGIA (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 4:33-50. [PMID: 36648777 PMCID: PMC9844502 DOI: 10.3390/epidemiologia4010003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Revised: 12/26/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Following the first COVID-19 infected cases, Malta rapidly imposed strict lockdown measures, including restrictions on international travel, together with national social distancing measures, such as prohibition of public gatherings and closure of workplaces. The study aimed to elucidate the effect of the intervention and relaxation of the social distancing measures upon the infection rate by means of a trendline analysis of the daily case data. In addition, the study derived a predictive model by fitting historical data of the SARS-CoV-2 positive cases within a two-parameter Weibull distribution, whilst incorporating swab-testing rates, to forecast the infection rate at minute computational expense. The trendline analysis portrayed the wave of infection to fit within a tri-phasic pattern, where the primary phase was imposed with social measure interventions. Following the relaxation of public measures, the two latter phases transpired, where the two peaks resolved without further escalation of national measures. The derived forecasting model attained accurate predictions of the daily infected cases, attaining a high goodness-of-fit, utilising uncensored government-official infection-rate and swabbing-rate data within the first COVID-19 wave in Malta.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mitchell G. Borg
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malta, MSD 2080 Msida, Malta
- Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean, and Marine Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 0LZ, UK
| | - Michael A. Borg
- Infection Control Department, Mater Dei Hospital, MSD 2090 Msida, Malta
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Malta, MSD 2080 Msida, Malta
- Correspondence:
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39
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Kamp B, Gibaja JJ, San Martin J, Turiel I. Adoption of measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19: In search of a Hofstedian explanation for patterns among individual countries and country clusters. SAFETY SCIENCE 2023; 157:105902. [PMID: 36061517 PMCID: PMC9420697 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
We consider multiple safety measures in relation to the COVID-19 virus and look at their adoption levels for a variety of 15 individual countries, based on data from Yougov.co.uk. Subsequently, we establish correlation coefficients between measure-specific uptake levels and Hofstede dimension scores for all countries considered. We notably find that Power Distance Index (PDI) and Individualism (IDV) have a considerable explanatory power. In addition, we carried out a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and a cluster analysis to see whether the behavioural patterns across countries can be grouped, and which Hofstede dimensions correlate strongest with the two main components that follow from the PCA. The PCA provides further confirmation of PDI and IDV being the most important explanatory factors for the uptake of measures across countries. The cluster analysis, in turn, reveals four broad groups, which only partly coincide with the way that the mental image clustering scheme by Wursten (2019) allots countries into its respective clusters. Hence, this provides a basis to suggest that data-driven exercises like the ones from our paper can serve to adjust Wursten's intuitive scheme.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bart Kamp
- Orkestra-Basque Institute of Competitiveness / Deusto Business School, Spain
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40
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Chudik A, Pesaran MH, Rebucci A. Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe. IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW 2023; 71:474-508. [PMCID: PMC9439281 DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00181-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 transmission rates and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants. Evidence based on panel data modeling indicates that the diversity of outcomes that we document may have resulted from the nonlinear interaction of mandated and voluntary social distancing and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. The importance of these factors declined over time, with vaccine uptake driving heterogeneity in country experiences in 2021. Our approach also allows us to identify the basic reproduction number, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$${\mathcal{R}}_{0}$$\end{document}R0, which is precisely estimated around 5, which is much larger than the values in the range of 2.4–3.9 assumed in the extant literature.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - M. Hashem Pesaran
- University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA
- Trinity College, Cambridge, UK
| | - Alessandro Rebucci
- Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA
- CEPR, London, UK
- NBER, Boston, USA
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41
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Rusu AC, Farrahi K, Niranjan M. Flattening the Curve Through Reinforcement Learning Driven Test and Trace Policies. LECTURE NOTES OF THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES, SOCIAL INFORMATICS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS ENGINEERING 2023:174-206. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-34586-9_14] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2025]
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42
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Qiu S, Xu D, Dai J, Zhang L, Tian X, Li X, Chen D, Zhou R, Liu W. Improving the efficiency and biosafety of respiratory syncytial virus identification using a nucleic acid extraction-free reagent. J Med Virol 2023; 95:e28287. [PMID: 36345579 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.28287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 11/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most important virus that causes lower respiratory tract disease in children; efficient viral identification is an important component of disease prevention and treatment. Here, we developed and evaluated a ready-to-use (RTU) nucleic acid extraction-free direct reagent for identification of RSV (RTU-Direct test) in clinical samples. The limit of detection (LOD) of the RSV RTU-Direct test was consistent with the LOD of the standard test using extracted nucleic acids. The virus inactivation ability of RTU-Direct reagent was confirmed by viral infectivity assays involving RTU-Direct-treated samples containing RSV and human coronavirus OC43. RSV RNA stability was significantly better in RTU-Direct reagent than in conventional virus transport medium (VTM) at room temperature and 4°C (p < 0.05). The clinical performance of the RTU-Direct test was evaluated using 155 respiratory specimens from patients with suspected RSV infection. Positive agreement between the RTU-Direct test and the VTM standard test was 100% (42/42); negative agreement was 99.1% (112/113), and the kappa statistic was 0.968 (p < 0.001). The distributions of Ct values did not significantly differ between the RTU-Direct test and the standard test (p > 0.05). Overall, the RTU-Direct reagent can improve the efficiency and biosafety of RSV detection, while reducing the cost of detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuyan Qiu
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Duo Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jing Dai
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Li Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xingui Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiao Li
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Dehui Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Rong Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.,Guangzhou Laboratory, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenkuan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Respiratory Infectious Disease, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China
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43
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Hincapie R, Munoz DA, Ortega N, Isfeld-Kiely HK, Shaw SY, Keynan Y, Rueda ZV. Effect of flight connectivity on the introduction and evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Canadian provinces and territories. J Travel Med 2022; 29:6679266. [PMID: 36041018 PMCID: PMC9452173 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2022] [Revised: 08/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged health services and governments in Canada and around the world. Our research aims to evaluate the effect of domestic and international air travel patterns on the COVID-19 pandemic in Canadian provinces and territories. METHODS Air travel data were obtained through licensed access to the 'BlueDot Intelligence Platform', BlueDot Inc. Daily provincial and territorial COVID-19 cases for Canada and global figures, including mortality, cases recovered and population data were downloaded from public datasets. The effects of domestic and international air travel and passenger volume on the number of local and non-local infected people in each Canadian province and territory were evaluated with a semi-Markov model. Provinces and territories are grouped into large (>100 000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and >1 000 000 inhabitants) and small jurisdictions (≤100 000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and ≤1 000 000 inhabitants). RESULTS Our results show a clear decline in passenger volumes from March 2020 due to public health policies, interventions and other measures taken to limit or control the spread of COVID-19. As the measures were eased, some provinces and territories saw small increases in passenger volumes, although travel remained below pre-pandemic levels. During the early phase of disease introduction, the burden of illness is determined by the connectivity of jurisdictions. In provinces with a larger population and greater connectivity, the burden of illness is driven by case importation, although local transmission rapidly replaces imported cases as the most important driver of increasing new infections. In smaller jurisdictions, a steep increase in cases is seen after importation, leading to outbreaks within the community. CONCLUSIONS Historical travel volumes, combined with data on an emerging infection, are useful to understand the behaviour of an infectious agent in regions of Canada with different connectivity and population size. Historical travel information is important for public health planning and pandemic resource allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Hincapie
- Escuela de Ingenierias, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellin, Colombia
| | - Diego A Munoz
- Escuela de Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia
| | - Nathalia Ortega
- Escuela de Ingenierias, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellin, Colombia
| | | | - Souradet Y Shaw
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.,Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Yoav Keynan
- National Collaborating Centre for Infectious Diseases, Winnipeg, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.,Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.,Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Zulma Vanessa Rueda
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.,Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellin, Colombia
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Health Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic among Health-Care Workers: A Comparison between Groups Involved and Not Involved in COVID-19 Care. Healthcare (Basel) 2022; 10:healthcare10122540. [PMID: 36554064 PMCID: PMC9778037 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10122540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Revised: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Health consequences have been reported among health-care workers (HCWs) exposed to COVID-19. Sweden chose to manage the pandemic with a lower and more equal long-lasting work strain and shorter periods of recovery than in other countries. Few studies have examined the health consequences among HCWs working in such conditions. This study compared the health consequences after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic between HCWs involved in the care of COVID-19 patients and other HCWs and between occupational groups working in COVID-19 care. Multinomial logistic regression and univariate general linear models were used to identify differences. The levels of depression, emotional and physical fatigue, sleep quality, and general health were measured 6 months after the onset of the pandemic in 3495 HCW employed in Sweden. HCWs directly involved in COVID-19 care reported significantly poorer sleep quality and higher scores on emotional and physical exhaustion than those not involved in such care. Health consequences did not differ significantly between different occupational groups involved in COVID-19 care except for specialist nurses/midwives. HCWs more frequently involved in COVID-19 care reported higher levels of emotional and physical fatigue and poorer sleep but less severe than those reported in more severely affected countries.
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45
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Petros BA, Paull JS, Tomkins-Tinch CH, Loftness BC, DeRuff KC, Nair P, Gionet GL, Benz A, Brock-Fisher T, Hughes M, Yurkovetskiy L, Mulaudzi S, Leenerman E, Nyalile T, Moreno GK, Specht I, Sani K, Adams G, Babet SV, Baron E, Blank JT, Boehm C, Botti-Lodovico Y, Brown J, Buisker AR, Burcham T, Chylek L, Cronan P, Dauphin A, Desreumaux V, Doss M, Flynn B, Gladden-Young A, Glennon O, Harmon HD, Hook TV, Kary A, King C, Loreth C, Marrs L, McQuade KJ, Milton TT, Mulford JM, Oba K, Pearlman L, Schifferli M, Schmidt MJ, Tandus GM, Tyler A, Vodzak ME, Krohn Bevill K, Colubri A, MacInnis BL, Ozsoy AZ, Parrie E, Sholtes K, Siddle KJ, Fry B, Luban J, Park DJ, Marshall J, Bronson A, Schaffner SF, Sabeti PC. Multimodal surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at a university enables development of a robust outbreak response framework. MED 2022; 3:883-900.e13. [PMID: 36198312 PMCID: PMC9482833 DOI: 10.1016/j.medj.2022.09.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 09/06/2022] [Accepted: 09/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Universities are vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, making them ideal environments to study transmission dynamics and evaluate mitigation and surveillance measures. Here, we analyze multimodal COVID-19-associated data collected during the 2020-2021 academic year at Colorado Mesa University and introduce a SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and response framework. METHODS We analyzed epidemiological and sociobehavioral data (demographics, contact tracing, and WiFi-based co-location data) alongside pathogen surveillance data (wastewater and diagnostic testing, and viral genomic sequencing of wastewater and clinical specimens) to characterize outbreak dynamics and inform policy. We applied relative risk, multiple linear regression, and social network assortativity to identify attributes or behaviors associated with contracting SARS-CoV-2. To characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we used viral sequencing, phylogenomic tools, and functional assays. FINDINGS Athletes, particularly those on high-contact teams, had the highest risk of testing positive. On average, individuals who tested positive had more contacts and longer interaction durations than individuals who never tested positive. The distribution of contacts per individual was overdispersed, although not as overdispersed as the distribution of phylogenomic descendants. Corroboration via technical replicates was essential for identification of wastewater mutations. CONCLUSIONS Based on our findings, we formulate a framework that combines tools into an integrated disease surveillance program that can be implemented in other congregate settings with limited resources. FUNDING This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Hertz Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Flu Lab, and the Audacious Project.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brittany A Petros
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Harvard-MIT Program in Health Sciences and Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; Harvard/MIT MD-PhD Program, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Systems, Synthetic, and Quantitative Biology PhD Program, Department of Systems Biology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Jillian S Paull
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Systems, Synthetic, and Quantitative Biology PhD Program, Department of Systems Biology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
| | - Christopher H Tomkins-Tinch
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
| | - Bryn C Loftness
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA; Complex Systems and Data Science PhD Program, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA; Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA.
| | | | - Parvathy Nair
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, MD 20815, USA
| | | | - Aaron Benz
- Degree Analytics, Inc., Austin, TX 78758, USA
| | | | | | - Leonid Yurkovetskiy
- Program in Molecular Medicine, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA
| | - Shandukani Mulaudzi
- Harvard Program in Bioinformatics and Integrative Genomics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | | | - Thomas Nyalile
- Program in Molecular Medicine, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA
| | - Gage K Moreno
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Ivan Specht
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Kian Sani
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Gordon Adams
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Simone V Babet
- Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Emily Baron
- COVIDCheck Colorado, LLC, Denver, CO 80202, USA
| | - Jesse T Blank
- Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Chloe Boehm
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Princeton University Molecular Biology Department, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
| | | | - Jeremy Brown
- Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | | | | | - Lily Chylek
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Paul Cronan
- Fathom Information Design, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Ann Dauphin
- Program in Molecular Medicine, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA
| | - Valentine Desreumaux
- Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Megan Doss
- Warrior Diagnostics, Inc., Loveland, CO 80538, USA
| | - Belinda Flynn
- Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | | | | | | | - Thomas V Hook
- Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Anton Kary
- Department of Biological Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Clay King
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | | | - Libby Marrs
- Fathom Information Design, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Kyle J McQuade
- Department of Biological Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Thorsen T Milton
- Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Jada M Mulford
- Department of Biological Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Kyle Oba
- Fathom Information Design, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Leah Pearlman
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | | | | | - Grace M Tandus
- Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Andy Tyler
- Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Megan E Vodzak
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - Kelly Krohn Bevill
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Andres Colubri
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA
| | | | - A Zeynep Ozsoy
- Department of Biological Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Eric Parrie
- COVIDCheck Colorado, LLC, Denver, CO 80202, USA
| | - Kari Sholtes
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA; Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Katherine J Siddle
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Ben Fry
- Fathom Information Design, Boston, MA 02114, USA
| | - Jeremy Luban
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Program in Molecular Medicine, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA; Biochemistry and Molecular Pharmacology, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA; Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Daniel J Park
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
| | - John Marshall
- Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | - Amy Bronson
- Physician Assistant Program, Department of Kinesiology, Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA
| | | | - Pardis C Sabeti
- Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA; Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, MD 20815, USA; Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
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Folayan MO, Abeldaño Zuniga RA, Abeldaño GF, Quadri MFA, Jafer M, Yousaf MA, Ellakany P, Nzimande N, Ara E, Al-Khanati NM, Khalid Z, Lawal F, Roque M, Lusher J, Popoola BO, Khan ATA, Ayanore MA, Gaffar B, Virtanen JI, Aly NM, Okeibunor JC, El Tantawi M, Nguyen AL. Is self-reported depression, HIV status, COVID-19 health risk profile and SARS-CoV-2 exposure associated with difficulty in adhering to COVID-19 prevention measures among residents in West Africa? BMC Public Health 2022; 22:2057. [PMID: 36357851 PMCID: PMC9648438 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-14429-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2022] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to determine whether self-reported depression, coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) health risk profile, HIV status, and SARS-CoV-2 exposure were associated with the use of COVID-19 prevention measures. METHODS This survey collected data electronically between June 29 and December 31, 2020 from a convenient sample of 5050 adults 18 years and above living in 12 West African countries. The dependent variables were: social distancing, working remotely, difficulty obtaining face masks and difficulty washing hands often. The independent variables were self-reported depression, having a health risk for COVID-19 (high, moderate and little/no risk), living with HIV and COVID-19 status (SARS-CoV-2 positive tests, having COVID-19 symptoms but not getting tested, having a close friend who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and knowing someone who died from COVID-19). Four binary logistic regression models were developed to model the associations between the dependent and independent variables, adjusting for socio-demographic variables (age, gender, educational status, employment status and living status). RESULTS There were 2412 (47.8%) male participants and the mean (standard deviation) age was 36.94 (11.47) years. Respondents who reported depression had higher odds of working remotely (AOR: 1.341), and having difficulty obtaining face masks (AOR: 1.923;) and washing hands often (AOR: 1.263). People living with HIV had significantly lower odds of having difficulty washing hands often (AOR: 0.483). Respondents with moderate health risk for COVID-19 had significantly higher odds of social distancing (AOR: 1.144) and those with high health risk had difficulty obtaining face masks (AOR: 1.910). Respondents who had a close friend who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (AOR: 1.132) and knew someone who died of COVID-19 (AOR: 1.094) had significantly higher odds of social distancing. Those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had significantly lower odds of social distancing (AOR: 0.629) and working remotely (AOR: 0.713). Those who had symptoms of COVID-19 but did not get tested had significantly lower odds of social distancing (AOR: 0.783) but significantly higher odds of working remotely (AOR: 1.277). CONCLUSIONS The study signifies a disparity in the access to and use of COVID-19 preventative measures that is allied to the health and COVID-19 status of residents in West Africa. Present findings point to risk compensation behaviours in explaining this outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Department of Child Dental Health, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.416197.c0000 0001 0247 1197Nigeria Institute of Medical Research, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuniga
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,Postgraduate Department, University of Sierra Sur., Oaxaca, Mexico
| | - Giuliana Florencia Abeldaño
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,School of Medicine, University of Sierra Sur., Oaxaca, Mexico
| | - Mir Faeq Ali Quadri
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.34477.330000000122986657Department of Oral Health Sciences, School of Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Mohammed Jafer
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.411831.e0000 0004 0398 1027Division of Dental Public Health, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia ,grid.5012.60000 0001 0481 6099Department of Health Promotion, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Muhammad Abrar Yousaf
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.444943.a0000 0004 0609 0887Department of Biology, Virtual University of Pakistan, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Passent Ellakany
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.411975.f0000 0004 0607 035XDepartment of Substitutive Dental Sciences, College of Dentistry, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ntombifuthi Nzimande
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.9008.10000 0001 1016 9625Department of Economic and Human Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Szeged, 6722 Szeged, Hungary
| | - Eshrat Ara
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.411678.d0000 0001 0941 7660Department of Psychology, Government College for Women, MA Road Srinagar Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, India
| | - Nuraldeen Maher Al-Khanati
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.449576.d0000 0004 5895 8692Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Faculty of Dentistry, Syrian Private University, Damascus, Syria
| | - Zumama Khalid
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.5606.50000 0001 2151 3065Department of Health Sciences, University of Genova, 16132 Genoa, GE Italy
| | - Folake Lawal
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.9582.60000 0004 1794 5983Department of Periodontology and Community Dentistry, University of Ibadan and University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Mark Roque
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.412892.40000 0004 1754 9358Maternity and Childhood Nursing Department, College of Nursing, Taibah University, Madinah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Joanne Lusher
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.449469.20000 0004 0516 1006Regent’s University London, London, UK
| | - Bamidele O. Popoola
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.9582.60000 0004 1794 5983Department of Child Oral Health, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Abeedha Tu-Allah Khan
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.11173.350000 0001 0670 519XSchool of Biological Sciences, University of the Punjab, Quaid-E-Azam Campus, Lahore, 54590 Pakistan
| | - Martin Amogre Ayanore
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.449729.50000 0004 7707 5975Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
| | - Balgis Gaffar
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.411975.f0000 0004 0607 035XDepartment of Preventive Dental Sciences, College of Dentistry, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Jorma I. Virtanen
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.1374.10000 0001 2097 1371Faculty of Medicine, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
| | - Nourhan M. Aly
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.7155.60000 0001 2260 6941Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Joseph Chukwudi Okeibunor
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,World Health Organisation, AFRO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.7155.60000 0001 2260 6941Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Annie Lu Nguyen
- grid.10824.3f0000 0001 2183 9444Mental Health and Wellness Study Group, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria ,grid.42505.360000 0001 2156 6853Department of Family Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA
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Lee DE, Kang H, Cho SI. The association between tobacco or nicotine product use behaviors and non-compliance with mask-wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study in Korea. Epidemiol Health 2022; 44:e2022087. [PMID: 36228668 PMCID: PMC10089704 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2022087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 10/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES It is necessary to investigate tobacco or nicotine product (TNP) use which acts as a risk factor for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Especially, wearing a mask is difficult to practice while using TNP. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the association between TNP use behaviors and non-compliance with mask-wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The samples of 208,618 Korean adults from 2020 Community Health Survey in Korea were used. As an independent variable, TNP use behaviors such as TNP use status, changes in TNP use after the COVID-19 outbreak, TNP types, and attempt to quit were analyzed. Logistic regression was performed on gender-stratified participants. RESULTS Among men, the odds ratio (OR) of current and former TNP users were 2.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.66 to 2.40) and 1.32 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.60), respectively, compared to never users. In women, OR was 1.50 (95% CI, 1.00 to 2.26) for former users. Cigarette use was more associated with not wearing a mask than non-cigarette tobacco or nicotine product (NCTNP) use (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.12 to 2.08). Men whose TNP use decreased had lower non-compliance (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.74); while women whose TNP use increased had lower non-compliance (OR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.26). CONCLUSIONS Current and former users were less likely to wear masks. Cigarette use was more associated with not wearing a mask than NCTNP use. Changes in TNP use showed association for men and women; however, in the opposite direction. Therefore, more attention should be paid to TNP use prevention and cessation support during the epidemic of respiratory infectious diseases. Moreover, it is necessary to identify risk factors of cigarette users in compliance with mask-wearing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Da-eun Lee
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
- Medical Intensive Care Unit, Seoul ST. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Heewon Kang
- Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sung-il Cho
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
- Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
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Meza R, Jeon J. Invited Commentary: Mechanistic and Biologically Based Models in Epidemiology-A Powerful Underutilized Tool. Am J Epidemiol 2022; 191:1776-1780. [PMID: 35650016 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwac099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Revised: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 04/08/2022] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Mechanistic and biologically based mathematical models of chronic and behavioral disease processes aim to capture the main mechanistic or biological features of the disease development and to connect these with epidemiologic outcomes. These approaches have a long history in epidemiologic research and are complementary to traditional epidemiologic or statistical approaches to investigate the role of risk factor exposures on disease risk. Simonetto et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(10):1766-1775) present a mechanistic, process-oriented model to investigate the role of smoking, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the development of atherosclerotic lesions and their progression to myocardial infarction. Their approach builds on and brings to cardiovascular disease the ideas and perspectives of earlier mechanistic and biologically based models for the epidemiology of cancer and other chronic diseases, providing important insights into the mechanisms and epidemiology of smoking related myocardial infarction. We argue that although mechanistic modeling approaches have demonstrated their value and place in epidemiology, they are highly underutilized. We call for efforts to grow mechanistic and biologically based modeling research, expertise, and awareness in epidemiology, including the development of training and collaboration opportunities to attract more students and researchers from science, technology, engineering, and medical field into the epidemiology field.
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Coleman N, Gao X, DeLeon J, Mostafavi A. Human activity and mobility data reveal disparities in exposure risk reduction indicators among socially vulnerable populations during COVID-19 for five U.S. metropolitan cities. Sci Rep 2022; 12:15814. [PMID: 36138033 PMCID: PMC9500070 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18857-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Non-pharmacologic interventions (NPIs) promote protective actions to lessen exposure risk to COVID-19 by reducing mobility patterns. However, there is a limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms associated with reducing mobility patterns especially for socially vulnerable populations. The research examines two datasets at a granular scale for five urban locations. Through exploratory analysis of networks, statistics, and spatial clustering, the research extensively investigates the exposure risk reduction after the implementation of NPIs to socially vulnerable populations, specifically lower income and non-white populations. The mobility dataset tracks population movement across ZIP codes for an origin-destination (O-D) network analysis. The population activity dataset uses the visits from census block groups (cbg) to points-of-interest (POIs) for network analysis of population-facilities interactions. The mobility dataset originates from a collaboration with StreetLight Data, a company focusing on transportation analytics, whereas the population activity dataset originates from a collaboration with SafeGraph, a company focusing on POI data. Both datasets indicated that low-income and non-white populations faced higher exposure risk. These findings can assist emergency planners and public health officials in comprehending how different populations are able to implement protective actions and it can inform more equitable and data-driven NPI policies for future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie Coleman
- Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA.
| | - Xinyu Gao
- Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA
| | - Jared DeLeon
- Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA
| | - Ali Mostafavi
- Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA
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50
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Bhat R, Kamath SD, Sequeira N, Raina S, Pai GS, Sukumar D, Martis J. The role of precautions: Organising a medical conference during COVID-19 pandemic-Lessons from IADVL MIDDERMACON 2021. JEADV CLINICAL PRACTICE 2022; 1:264-267. [PMID: 37830035 PMCID: PMC9349629 DOI: 10.1002/jvc2.32] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Revised: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Background The use of virtual platforms for clinical meetings has become the default approach during this pandemic era. Organising an offline conference during a pandemic is a challenge and is possible if the participating crowd is vaccinated and is willing to follow appropriate pandemic protocols. Objective To determine the feasibility of conducting a conference among mostly vaccinated delegates using standard precautionary protocols. Methods This study was conducted at IADVL MIDDERMACON 2021, held in Mangalore, India, in late October 2021, during the phase of decline of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. The study population included all conference attendees, including support staff. Details were collected about their vaccination status, comorbidities, and mode of travel to the conference venue. An reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test was done randomly among the attendees for COVID-19 infection. A post-conference assessment and RT-PCR tests were done at the end of 2 weeks to assess the occurrence of infections among study participants. Results A total of 1744 people were present at the venue, of which 576 (33.03%) participated in the study. The percentage of fully vaccinated was 88.88% (512/576). The majority had taken the vaccine Covishield (manufactured by AstraZeneca), that is, 85.06% (490/576). Infection post the conference was reported in 0.195% (1/576). Conclusions Holding large gatherings like medical conferences pose a challenge during a pandemic. However, to increase the benefits of the conference, it is advisable to hold them offline with vaccinated delegates, follow the advice of the conference organising committee, and practise safe precautionary measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramesh Bhat
- Department of DermatologyFather Muller Medical CollegeMangaloreKarnatakaIndia
| | - Suvidha D. Kamath
- Department of DermatologyFather Muller Medical CollegeMangaloreKarnatakaIndia
| | | | - Sunil Raina
- Department of Community MedicineDr. R P Government Medical CollegeTandaHimachal PradeshIndia
| | - Ganesh S. Pai
- DERMA‐CARE Skin and Cosmetology CentreMangaloreKarnatakaIndia
| | - Dandakeri Sukumar
- Department of DermatologyFather Muller Medical CollegeMangaloreKarnatakaIndia
| | - Jacintha Martis
- Department of DermatologyFather Muller Medical CollegeMangaloreKarnatakaIndia
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