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Halama P, Tencerová J, Uhrecký B. "The doctors and nurses looked like aliens': a qualitative study on the subjective hospitalization experiences of severe COVID-19 patients in Slovakia". Int J Qual Stud Health Well-being 2025; 20:2438831. [PMID: 39656605 DOI: 10.1080/17482631.2024.2438831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2024] [Accepted: 12/03/2024] [Indexed: 12/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Due to the need to hospitalize a large number of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic, the psychological conditions of hospitalized patients were often overlooked. This study focuses on the qualitative analysis of the subjective experiences of patients with a severe COVID-19 disease in Slovakia during hospitalization. A total of 27 Slovak participants (11 men and 16 women, mean age 57.10 years) who were hospitalized with severe COVID-19 disease were interviewed about their subjective experiences during hospitalization. The data was analysed using thematic analysis. The main themes included negative emotions such as distress, discomfort with the illness, discomfort with the medical environment and helplessness. The main sources of distress were the sense of isolation, witnessing the death of another patient, own death concerns, and concerns for others. Sources and strategies used by patients to improve their mental state included interpersonal resources such as contact with relatives and friends, instrumental support from them, mutual help among patients and professional psychological support. Interpersonal resources included optimism, hope, religion and spirituality, recollection of significant others, and reconciliation with the possibility of death. The results have implications for medical staff as they help them to understand the psychological state of COVID-19 patients during hospitalization and can inform psychological interventions to improve hospital care for these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Halama
- Institute of Experimental Psychology, Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Jana Tencerová
- Institute of Experimental Psychology, Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Branislav Uhrecký
- Institute of Experimental Psychology, Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia
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Shembesh RH, Beshr MS, ALTarhouni MM. COVID-19 vaccine knowledge and acceptance among the Libyan population: A cross-sectional study. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2025; 21:2439590. [PMID: 39701925 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2439590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2024] [Revised: 11/13/2024] [Accepted: 12/04/2024] [Indexed: 12/21/2024] Open
Abstract
We aim to identify Libyans' knowledge, attitudes, and acceptance regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. A cross-sectional survey was electronically distributed to the Libyan population aged 18 and older between May and September 2023. The questionnaire had three sections: socio-demographics, COVID-19 vaccination and infection, and knowledge and attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. The chi-square test was used to assess the associations. A total of 1,043 respondents completed the questionnaire. Of these, 590 (56.6%) were vaccinated, and 453 (43.4%) were unvaccinated. Only age, educational level, employment status, history of COVID-19 infection, and source of information had a significant association with vaccination status; all shared a p-value <.05. However, Monthly income did not. Regarding knowledge, 63.7% agreed that vaccines in general are an effective way to prevent and control infectious diseases, and 76.6% agreed that they can prevent disease and mortality. However, regarding COVID-19 vaccine, 48.4% agreed that the benefits outweigh the risks. Regarding COVID-19 safety, 40.8% responded that COVID-19 vaccines are only slightly safe or not safe at all. COVID-19 vaccine acceptance was at 57.2%, and only age and source of information were significantly associated. Those who held favorable views were more likely to accept the vaccine, while those who had concerns about safety were more vaccine hesitant. There is a gap between the perception of the COVID-19 vaccine compared to other vaccines among Libyans. Our study revealed that 57.2% of Libyans accept the COVID-19 vaccine. However, only 34% of the Libyan population is vaccinated. A comprehensive health policy is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rana H Shembesh
- Faculty of Medicine, Libyan International Medical University, Benghazi, Libya
| | - Mohammed S Beshr
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen
| | - Mariam M ALTarhouni
- Faculty of Medicine, Libyan International Medical University, Benghazi, Libya
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Yang MJ, Gaulin M, Seegert N, Fan Y. What drives the effectiveness of social distancing in combating COVID-19 across U.S. states? PLoS One 2025; 20:e0308244. [PMID: 40354357 PMCID: PMC12068638 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0308244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/14/2025] Open
Abstract
We propose a new theory of information-based voluntary social distancing in which people's responses to disease prevalence depend on the credibility of reported cases and fatalities and vary locally. We embed this theory into a new pandemic prediction and policy analysis framework that blends compartmental epidemiological/economic models with Machine Learning. We find that lockdown effectiveness varies widely across US States during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that voluntary social distancing is higher in more informed states, and increasing information could have substantially changed social distancing and fatalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mu-Jeung Yang
- Department of Economics, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, United States of America
| | - Maclean Gaulin
- David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America
| | - Nathan Seegert
- David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, United States of America
| | - Yang Fan
- Colby College, Waterville, Maine, United States of America
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4
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Hossain MS, Goyal R, Martin NK, DeGruttola V, Chowdhury MM, McMahan C, Rennert L. A flexible framework for local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number in geographic regions with sparse data. BMC Med Res Methodol 2025; 25:73. [PMID: 40102783 PMCID: PMC11917005 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-025-02525-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/03/2025] [Indexed: 03/20/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Our research focuses on local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number, which describes the transmissibility of an infectious disease and represents the average number of individuals one infectious person infects at a given time. The ability to accurately estimate the infectious disease reproductive number in geographically granular regions is critical for disaster planning and resource allocation. However, not all regions have sufficient infectious disease outcome data; this lack of data presents a significant challenge for accurate estimation. METHODS To overcome this challenge, we propose a two-step approach that incorporates existing [Formula: see text] estimation procedures (EpiEstim, EpiFilter, EpiNow2) using data from geographic regions with sufficient data (step 1), into a covariate-adjusted Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) spatial model to predict [Formula: see text] in regions with sparse or missing data (step 2). Our flexible framework effectively allows us to implement any existing estimation procedure for [Formula: see text] in regions with coarse or entirely missing data. We perform external validation and a simulation study to evaluate the proposed method and assess its predictive performance. RESULTS We applied our method to estimate [Formula: see text]using data from South Carolina (SC) counties and ZIP codes during the first COVID-19 wave ('Wave 1', June 16, 2020 - August 31, 2020) and the second wave ('Wave 2', December 16, 2020 - March 02, 2021). Among the three methods used in the first step, EpiNow2 yielded the highest accuracy of [Formula: see text] prediction in the regions with entirely missing data. Median county-level percentage agreement (PA) was 90.9% (Interquartile Range, IQR: 89.9-92.0%) and 92.5% (IQR: 91.6-93.4%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Median zip code-level PA was 95.2% (IQR: 94.4-95.7%) and 96.5% (IQR: 95.8-97.1%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Using EpiEstim, EpiFilter, and an ensemble-based approach yielded median PA ranging from 81.9 to 90.0%, 87.2-92.1%, and 88.4-90.9%, respectively, across both waves and geographic granularities. CONCLUSION These findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology is a useful tool for small-area estimation of [Formula: see text], as our flexible framework yields high prediction accuracy for regions with coarse or missing data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Sakhawat Hossain
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA.
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA.
| | - Ravi Goyal
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Natasha K Martin
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Victor DeGruttola
- Division of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Christopher McMahan
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Lior Rennert
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA.
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA.
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Hossain MS, Goyal R, Martin NK, DeGruttola V, Chowdhury MM, McMahan C, Rennert L. A Flexible Framework for Local-Level Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number in Geographic Regions with Sparse Data. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2025:2024.11.06.24316859. [PMID: 40162254 PMCID: PMC11952488 DOI: 10.1101/2024.11.06.24316859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/02/2025]
Abstract
Background Our research focuses on local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number, which describes the transmissibility of an infectious disease and represents the average number of individuals one infectious person infects at a given time. The ability to accurately estimate the infectious disease reproductive number in geographically granular regions is critical for disaster planning and resource allocation. However, not all regions have sufficient infectious disease outcome data; this lack of data presents a significant challenge for accurate estimation. Methods To overcome this challenge, we propose a two-step approach that incorporates existingR t estimation procedures (EpiEstim, EpiFilter, EpiNow2) using data from geographic regions with sufficient data (step 1), into a covariate-adjusted Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) spatial model to predictR t in regions with sparse or missing data (step 2). Our flexible framework effectively allows us to implement any existing estimation procedure forR t in regions with coarse or entirely missing data. We perform external validation and a simulation study to evaluate the proposed method and assess its predictive performance. Results We applied our method to estimateR t using data from South Carolina (SC) counties and ZIP codes during the first COVID-19 wave ('Wave 1', June 16, 2020 - August 31, 2020) and the second wave ('Wave 2', December 16, 2020 - March 02, 2021). Among the three methods used in the first step, EpiNow2 yielded the highest accuracy ofR t prediction in the regions with entirely missing data. Median county-level percentage agreement (PA) was 90.9% (Interquartile Range, IQR: 89.9-92.0%) and 92.5% (IQR: 91.6-93.4%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Median zip code-level PA was 95.2% (IQR: 94.4-95.7%) and 96.5% (IQR: 95.8-97.1%) for Wave 1 and 2, respectively. Using EpiEstim, EpiFilter, and an ensemble-based approach yielded median PA ranging from 81.9%-90.0%, 87.2%-92.1%, and 88.4%-90.9%, respectively, across both waves and geographic granularities. Conclusion These findings demonstrate that the proposed methodology is a useful tool for small-area estimation ofR t , as our flexible framework yields high prediction accuracy for regions with coarse or missing data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Sakhawat Hossain
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Ravi Goyal
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Natasha K Martin
- Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Victor DeGruttola
- Division of Biostatistics, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, San Diego, California, USA
| | - Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Christopher McMahan
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
| | - Lior Rennert
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
- Center for Public Health Modeling and Response, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA
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Manna RM, Rahman MH, Ara T, Usmani NG, Tanvir KM, Haider MS, Akter E, Shomik MS, Hossain AT. Impact of COVID-19 on In-Patient and Out-Patient services in Bangladesh. PLoS One 2025; 20:e0315626. [PMID: 40019910 PMCID: PMC11870377 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0315626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2024] [Accepted: 11/27/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2025] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The global Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted healthcare systems, reducing access to medical services. In Bangladesh, strict lockdowns, healthcare worker shortages, and resource diversion further strained the system. Despite these challenges, the impact on inpatient and outpatient service utilisation in Bangladesh remains unaddressed. This study explored the levels of inpatient admissions and outpatient visits in public healthcare facilities before and during COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional secondary analysis of inpatient and outpatient data from all public hospitals collected via District Health Information System, version 2 (DHIS2) from January 2017 to June 2021. Using 2017-2019 as the baseline, we analysed healthcare utilisation indicators (outpatient visits and inpatient admissions) with descriptive and segmented Poisson regression to assess the impact of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. RESULTS In 2020, outpatient visits and inpatient admissions significantly declined to 34.1 million and 37.5 million, respectively, from 47.6 million and 56.2 million in 2019. Segmented regression analysis confirmed these drops, especially in Dhaka (IRR = 0.62, p < 0.001) and Barisal (IRR = 0.69, p < 0.002) for outpatient visits, and in Dhaka (IRR = 0.64, p < 0.000) and Khulna (IRR = 0.70, p < 0.000) for inpatient admissions. In 2021, most divisions saw an increase in outpatient visit and inpatient admission numbers, with the lowest rebound in Sylhet. CONCLUSION The COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced Outpatient Department (OPD) visits and Inpatient Department (IPD) admissions in Bangladesh in 2020, with partial recovery in 2021. To ensure sustained access to care, it is crucial to strengthen healthcare facilities and equip healthcare providers to be prepared for future pandemics or emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ridwana Maher Manna
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
| | - Md Hafizur Rahman
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
- Biological Science Division, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Tasnu Ara
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
| | - Nasimul Ghani Usmani
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
| | - K. M. Tanvir
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
| | - M. Sabbir Haider
- Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research IEDCR, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ema Akter
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Sohel Shomik
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Aniqa Tasnim Hossain
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka , Bangladesh
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Tsanakas AT, Mueller YM, van de Werken HJG, Pujol Borrell R, Ouzounis CA, Katsikis PD. An explainable machine learning model for COVID-19 severity prognosis at hospital admission. INFORMATICS IN MEDICINE UNLOCKED 2025; 52:101602. [DOI: 10.1016/j.imu.2024.101602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2025] Open
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Hanage WP, Schaffner W. Burden of Acute Respiratory Infections Caused by Influenza Virus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and SARS-CoV-2 with Consideration of Older Adults: A Narrative Review. Infect Dis Ther 2025; 14:5-37. [PMID: 39739200 PMCID: PMC11724833 DOI: 10.1007/s40121-024-01080-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2024] [Accepted: 11/06/2024] [Indexed: 01/02/2025] Open
Abstract
Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are acute respiratory infections (ARIs) that can cause substantial morbidity and mortality among at-risk individuals, including older adults. In this narrative review, we summarize themes identified in the literature regarding the epidemiology, seasonality, immunity after infection, clinical presentation, and transmission for these ARIs, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on seasonal patterns of influenza and RSV infections, with consideration of data specific to older adults when available. As the older adult population increases globally, it is of paramount importance to fully characterize the true disease burden of ARIs in order to develop appropriate mitigation strategies to minimize their impact in vulnerable populations. Challenges associated with characterizing the burden of these diseases include the shared symptomology and clinical presentation of influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2, which complicate accurate diagnosis and highlight the need for improved testing and surveillance practices. To this end, multiple regional, national, and global virologic and disease surveillance systems have been established to provide accurate knowledge of viral epidemiology, support appropriate preparedness and response to potential outbreaks, and help inform prevention strategies to reduce disease severity and transmission. Beyond the burden of acute illness, long-term health consequences can also result from influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infection. These include cardiovascular and pulmonary complications, worsening of existing chronic conditions, increased frailty, and reduced life expectancy. ARIs among older adults can also place a substantial financial burden on society and healthcare systems. Collectively, the existing data indicate that influenza virus, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 infections in older adults present a substantial global health challenge, underscoring the need for interventions to improve health outcomes and reduce the disease burden of respiratory illnesses.Graphical abstract and video abstract available for this article.
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Affiliation(s)
- William P Hanage
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
| | - William Schaffner
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center, 1211 Medical Center Dr, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA
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Nascimento LS, Marson FAL, dos Santos RDC. Epidemiological profile of patients hospitalized with Crohn's disease due to severe acute respiratory infection during the COVID-19 pandemic: a 2-year report from Brazil. Front Med (Lausanne) 2024; 11:1440101. [PMID: 39507710 PMCID: PMC11537927 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1440101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2024] [Accepted: 09/16/2024] [Indexed: 11/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and aims The novel coronavirus-induced severe acute respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) led to one of the most significant global pandemics of the 21st century, causing substantial challenges for healthcare systems worldwide, including those in Brazil. This study aimed to investigate the demographic and clinical profiles of hospitalized patients in Brazil who had both COVID-19 and Crohn's disease (CD) over a 2-year period. Methods An epidemiological analysis was conducted using data from Open-Data-SUS. The study focused on describing the demographic characteristics, clinical manifestations, comorbidities, and hospitalization details of patients afflicted with severe acute respiratory syndrome due to COVID-19 and CD, with the aim of predicting mortality risk. Results The states of São Paulo, Paraná, and Minas Gerais accounted for 50% of the reported COVID-19 cases. The most affected racial group consisted of individuals who self-declared as mixed race. Common comorbidities included heart disease, diabetes mellitus, and obesity. The age group most affected was 25 to 60 years old, particularly among hospitalized patients with both CD and COVID-19 who ultimately succumbed to the illness. A multivariable analysis was conducted to identify the following significant risk factors for death: (a) the presence of neurological disorder (OR = 6.716; 95% CI = 1.954-23.078), (b) the need for intensive care (OR = 3.348; 95% CI = 1.770-6.335), and (c) the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (OR = 59.017; 95% CI = 19.796-175.944). Conclusion There was no discernible gender-based prevalence among hospitalized patients with CD and COVID-19; however, individuals of mixed race were disproportionately affected. The 25 to 60 age group emerged as the most vulnerable demographic group, with high risks of hospitalization and mortality. Moreover, the study highlights the potential for COVID-19 to induce systemic pathologies that may result in long-term degenerative effects and sequelae.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laís Silva Nascimento
- Laboratory of Natural Products, São Francisco University, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
- Laboratory of Molecular Biology and Genetics, São Francisco University, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
| | - Fernando Augusto Lima Marson
- Laboratory of Molecular Biology and Genetics, São Francisco University, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
- Laboratory of Clinical and Molecular Microbiology, São Francisco University, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
- LunGuardian Research Group-Epidemiology of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases, São Francisco University, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
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Hong H, Eom E, Lee H, Choi S, Choi B, Kim JK. Overcoming bias in estimating epidemiological parameters with realistic history-dependent disease spread dynamics. Nat Commun 2024; 15:8734. [PMID: 39384847 PMCID: PMC11464791 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53095-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2024] [Accepted: 09/26/2024] [Indexed: 10/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Epidemiological parameters such as the reproduction number, latent period, and infectious period provide crucial information about the spread of infectious diseases and directly inform intervention strategies. These parameters have generally been estimated by mathematical models that involve an unrealistic assumption of history-independent dynamics for simplicity. This assumes that the chance of becoming infectious during the latent period or recovering during the infectious period remains constant, whereas in reality, these chances vary over time. Here, we find that conventional approaches with this assumption cause serious bias in epidemiological parameter estimation. To address this bias, we developed a Bayesian inference method by adopting more realistic history-dependent disease dynamics. Our method more accurately and precisely estimates the reproduction number than the conventional approaches solely from confirmed cases data, which are easy to obtain through testing. It also revealed how the infectious period distribution changed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 in South Korea. We also provide a user-friendly package, IONISE, that automates this method.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyukpyo Hong
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST, Daejeon, 34141, Republic of Korea
- Biomedical Mathematics Group, Pioneer Research Center for Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon, 34126, Republic of Korea
- Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Eunjin Eom
- Department of Economic Statistics, Korea University, Sejong, 30019, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyojung Lee
- Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, 41566, Republic of Korea
| | - Sunhwa Choi
- Innovation Center for Industrial Mathematics, National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Seongnam, 13449, Republic of Korea.
| | - Boseung Choi
- Biomedical Mathematics Group, Pioneer Research Center for Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon, 34126, Republic of Korea.
- Division of Big Data Science, Korea University, Sejong, 30019, Republic of Korea.
- College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, OH, 43210, USA.
| | - Jae Kyoung Kim
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST, Daejeon, 34141, Republic of Korea.
- Biomedical Mathematics Group, Pioneer Research Center for Mathematical and Computational Sciences, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon, 34126, Republic of Korea.
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Zeng W, Chen W, Liu Y, Zhang T, Zhai C, Li W, Wang L, Zhang C, Zeng Q, Wang F, Ma L. Preamplification-free ultra-fast and ultra-sensitive point-of-care testing via LwaCas13a. Biosens Bioelectron 2024; 259:116400. [PMID: 38776799 DOI: 10.1016/j.bios.2024.116400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2023] [Revised: 05/02/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
CRISPR based nucleic acid detection technology provides a deployable approach to point of care testing. While, there remain challenges limiting its practical applications, such as the need for pre-amplification and the long turnaround time. Here, we present a self-cascade signal amplification method with LwaCas13a and an artificially designed "U" rich RNA of stem-loop structure (URH) for pre-amplification-free ultra-fast and ultra-sensitive point-of-care testing (PASSPORT). The PASSPORT system contains: URH, crRNA targeted the URH, crRNA targeted the interesting RNA, fluorescent RNA reporter and LwaCas13a. The assay realized the detection of 100 copies/mL, within 5 min. The PASSPORT platform was further adopted for the detection of marker gene from SASR-CoV-2 and Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), respectively, and 100% accuracy for the analysis of clinical specimens (100 SASR-CoV-2 specimens and 16 SFTSV specimens) was obtained. Integrated with a lateral flow assay device, this assay could provide an alternative platform for the development of point of care testing (POCT) biosensors. PASSPORT has the potential to enable sensitive, specific, user-friendly, rapid, affordable, equipment-free and point-of-care testing for the purpose of large-scale screening and in case of epidemic outbreak.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wanting Zeng
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Wanping Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Yang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Ting Zhang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, 430079, China
| | - Chao Zhai
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Wenqiang Li
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Longyu Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Cheng Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China
| | - Qili Zeng
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, 430079, China
| | - Fei Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China.
| | - Lixin Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Biocatalysis and Enzyme Engineering, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Industrial Biotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, China.
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12
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Clements N, Diel DG, Elvinger F, Koretzky G, Siler J, Warnick LD. The role of veterinary diagnostic laboratories during COVID-19 response in the United States. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0303019. [PMID: 38917105 PMCID: PMC11198799 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Robust testing capacity was necessary for public health agencies to respond to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. As the nation faced the need for robust testing capacity, it became necessary to use all possible resources. In many cases, veterinary diagnostic laboratories rose to meet this demand because these facilities routinely perform high throughput diagnostic testing of large animal populations and are typically familiar with pathogens of high pandemic concern. In this study, we evaluated the impact of veterinary diagnostic laboratories in the United States on SARS-CoV-2 testing. Results of surveys, semi-structured interviews, and analysis of publicly available information showed that veterinary diagnostic laboratories had a substantial impact on human health through population-level testing in the COVID-19 response, supporting timely and informed public health interventions. This success was not without significant hurdles, as many participating veterinary diagnostic laboratories experienced restriction in their response due to difficulties obtaining the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) certification required to conduct human diagnostic testing. Our results point out the importance of reducing hurdles before the next major public health emergency to enhance access to testing resources overall and to ultimately improve population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nia Clements
- Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - Diego G. Diel
- Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - François Elvinger
- Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - Gary Koretzky
- Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, United States of America
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, College of Veterinary, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - Julie Siler
- Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
| | - Lorin D. Warnick
- Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America
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13
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Li X, Mi Z, Liu Z, Rong P. SARS-CoV-2: pathogenesis, therapeutics, variants, and vaccines. Front Microbiol 2024; 15:1334152. [PMID: 38939189 PMCID: PMC11208693 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2024.1334152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2024] [Indexed: 06/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in December 2019 with staggering economic fallout and human suffering. The unique structure of SARS-CoV-2 and its underlying pathogenic mechanism were responsible for the global pandemic. In addition to the direct damage caused by the virus, SARS-CoV-2 triggers an abnormal immune response leading to a cytokine storm, culminating in acute respiratory distress syndrome and other fatal diseases that pose a significant challenge to clinicians. Therefore, potential treatments should focus not only on eliminating the virus but also on alleviating or controlling acute immune/inflammatory responses. Current management strategies for COVID-19 include preventative measures and supportive care, while the role of the host immune/inflammatory response in disease progression has largely been overlooked. Understanding the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and its receptors, as well as the underlying pathogenesis, has proven to be helpful for disease prevention, early recognition of disease progression, vaccine development, and interventions aimed at reducing immunopathology have been shown to reduce adverse clinical outcomes and improve prognosis. Moreover, several key mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence result in an enhanced binding affinity to the host cell receptor, or produce immune escape, leading to either increased virus transmissibility or virulence of variants that carry these mutations. This review characterizes the structural features of SARS-CoV-2, its variants, and their interaction with the immune system, emphasizing the role of dysfunctional immune responses and cytokine storm in disease progression. Additionally, potential therapeutic options are reviewed, providing critical insights into disease management, exploring effective approaches to deal with the public health crises caused by SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xi Li
- Department of Radiology, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Ze Mi
- Department of Radiology, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Zhenguo Liu
- Department of Infectious Disease, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Pengfei Rong
- Department of Radiology, The Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
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14
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Bairagya HR, Tasneem A, Sarmadhikari D. Structural and thermodynamic properties of conserved water molecules in Mpro native: A combined approach by MD simulation and Grid Inhomogeneous Solvation Theory. Proteins 2024; 92:735-749. [PMID: 38213131 DOI: 10.1002/prot.26665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2023] [Revised: 12/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/01/2024] [Indexed: 01/13/2024]
Abstract
The new viral strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) are continuously rising, becoming more virulent, and transmissible. Therefore, the development of new antiviral drugs is essential. Due to its significant role in the viral life cycle of SARS-CoV-2, the main protease (Mpro) enzyme is a leading target for antiviral drug design. The Mpro monomer consists of domain DI, DII, and DI-DII interface. Twenty-one conserved water molecules (W4-W24) are occupied at these domains according to multiple crystal structure analyses. The crystal and MD structures reveal the presence of eight conserved water sites in domain DI, DII and remaining in the DI-DII interface. Grid-based inhomogeneous fluid solvation theory (GIST) was employed on MD structures of Mpro native to predict structural and thermodynamic properties of each conserved water site for focusing to identify the specific conserved water molecules that can easily be displaced by proposed ligands. Finally, MD water W13 is emerged as a promising candidate for water mimic drug design due to its low mean interaction energy, loose binding character with the protein, and its involvement in a water-mediated H-bond with catalytic His41 via the interaction Thr25(OG)---W13---W---His41(NE2). In this context, water occupancy, relative interaction energy, entropy, and topologies of W13 are thermodynamically acceptable for the water displacement method. Therefore, the strategic use of W13's geometrical position in the DI domain may be implemented for drug discovery against COVID disease by designing new ligands with appropriately oriented chemical groups to mimic its structural, electronic, and thermodynamic properties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hridoy R Bairagya
- Computational Drug Design and Bio-molecular Simulation Lab, Department of Bioinformatics, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology, Haringhata, West Bengal, India
| | - Alvea Tasneem
- Mathematical and Computational Biology Laboratory, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Basic Sciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India
| | - Debapriyo Sarmadhikari
- Computational Drug Design and Bio-molecular Simulation Lab, Department of Bioinformatics, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology, Haringhata, West Bengal, India
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15
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Köntös Z. Lessons should be learned: Why did we not learn from the Spanish flu? SAGE Open Med 2024; 12:20503121241256820. [PMID: 38826825 PMCID: PMC11143818 DOI: 10.1177/20503121241256820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 06/04/2024] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 has become a global pandemic that has affected millions of people worldwide. The disease is caused by the novel coronavirus that was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The virus is highly contagious and can spread from person to person through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs, sneezes, talks, or breathes. The symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, and shortness of breath, and in severe cases, it can lead to respiratory failure, pneumonia, and death. The Spanish flu, caused by the H1N1 influenza virus, and the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are two of the most significant global health crises in history. While these two pandemics occurred almost a century apart and are caused by different types of viruses, there are notable similarities in their impact, transmission, and public health responses. Here are some key similarities between the Spanish flu and SARS-CoV-2. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-1919 stands as one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, claiming the lives of an estimated 50 million people worldwide. Its impact reverberated across continents, leaving behind a legacy of devastation and lessons that, unfortunately, seem to have been forgotten or ignored over time. Despite the advancements in science, medicine, and public health in the intervening century, humanity found itself facing a strikingly similar situation with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, amidst the search for effective measures to combat COVID-19, novel approaches such as iodine complexes, such as Iodine-V has emerged as potential interventions, reflecting the ongoing quest for innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of pandemics. This raises the poignant question: why did we not learn from the Spanish flu?
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16
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Gao X, Xu Y. Markovian Approach for Exploring Competitive Diseases with Heterogeneity-Evidence from COVID-19 and Influenza in China. Bull Math Biol 2024; 86:71. [PMID: 38719993 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-024-01300-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/23/2024]
Abstract
Due to the complex interactions between multiple infectious diseases, the spreading of diseases in human bodies can vary when people are exposed to multiple sources of infection at the same time. Typically, there is heterogeneity in individuals' responses to diseases, and the transmission routes of different diseases also vary. Therefore, this paper proposes an SIS disease spreading model with individual heterogeneity and transmission route heterogeneity under the simultaneous action of two competitive infectious diseases. We derive the theoretical epidemic spreading threshold using quenched mean-field theory and perform numerical analysis under the Markovian method. Numerical results confirm the reliability of the theoretical threshold and show the inhibitory effect of the proportion of fully competitive individuals on epidemic spreading. The results also show that the diversity of disease transmission routes promotes disease spreading, and this effect gradually weakens when the epidemic spreading rate is high enough. Finally, we find a negative correlation between the theoretical spreading threshold and the average degree of the network. We demonstrate the practical application of the model by comparing simulation outputs to temporal trends of two competitive infectious diseases, COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xingyu Gao
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changshu Institute of Technology, Changshu, 215500, China.
| | - Yuchao Xu
- GE HealthCare Technologies Inc, No. 1 Huatuo Road, Shanghai, 201210, China
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17
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Das P, Igoe M, Lacy A, Farthing T, Timsina A, Lanzas C, Lenhart S, Odoi A, Lloyd AL. Modeling county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area: Challenges of uncertainty and identifiability when fitting mechanistic models to time-varying processes. Math Biosci 2024; 371:109181. [PMID: 38537734 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
We use a compartmental model with a time-varying transmission parameter to describe county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area of Missouri and investigate the challenges in fitting such a model to time-varying processes. We fit this model to synthetic and real confirmed case and hospital discharge data from May to December 2020 and calculate uncertainties in the resulting parameter estimates. We also explore non-identifiability within the estimated parameter set. We find that the death rate of infectious non-hospitalized individuals, the testing parameter and the initial number of exposed individuals are not identifiable based on an investigation of correlation coefficients between pairs of parameter estimates. We also explore how this non-identifiability ties back into uncertainties in the estimated parameters and find that it inflates uncertainty in the estimates of our time-varying transmission parameter. However, we do find that R0 is not highly affected by non-identifiability of its constituent components and the uncertainties associated with the quantity are smaller than those of the estimated parameters. Parameter values estimated from data will always be associated with some uncertainty and our work highlights the importance of conducting these analyses when fitting such models to real data. Exploring identifiability and uncertainty is crucial in revealing how much we can trust the parameter estimates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Praachi Das
- Biomathematics Graduate Program, Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Morganne Igoe
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Alexanderia Lacy
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Trevor Farthing
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology and Comparative Medicine Institute, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Archana Timsina
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology and Comparative Medicine Institute, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Cristina Lanzas
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology and Comparative Medicine Institute, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Suzanne Lenhart
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Agricola Odoi
- Department of Biomedical and Diagnostics Sciences, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Alun L Lloyd
- Biomathematics Graduate Program, Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
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18
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Aboushady AT, Blackmore C, Nagel A, Janashvili L, Gexha D, Otorbaeva D, Bugaienko N, Pebody R, Hegermann-Lindencrone M. Contact tracing in Austria, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, and Kosovo† during the COVID-19 pandemic: response review and good practices. Eur J Public Health 2024; 34:387-393. [PMID: 38261364 PMCID: PMC10990501 DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckad217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the COVID-19 pandemic, effective contact tracing was recognized as a crucial public health response to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality, particularly before widespread vaccination. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended implementing active surveillance strategies to trace and quarantine contacts of confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases. METHODS A detailed review and analysis of the COVID-19 contact tracing responses was conducted in five European countries and territories, between March 2021 and August 2022. The countries and territories were selected to ensure geographical representation across the WHO European Region and applied a mixed-methods approach of in-depth interviews with various stakeholders across different administrative levels to identify good practices in COVID-19 contact tracing. The interviews covered 12 themes, including methods and procedures for COVID-19 contact tracing, information technology, quality assurance and key performance indicators. RESULTS The findings demonstrate that the policy approach, digitalization capabilities and implementation approach varied in the countries and territories and were dynamic throughout the pandemic. The analysis revealed that some practices were applicable across all countries and territories, while others were context-specific, catering to each country's and territory's unique needs. The study highlighted a need for all countries to institutionalize contact tracing as an essential function of existing health systems, to digitalize contact tracing practices and processes, and to build and retain contact tracing capacities for better pandemic preparedness. CONCLUSION The lessons related to COVID-19 contact tracing should be utilized to strengthen future outbreak response operations as part of epidemic and pandemic preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Taha Aboushady
- Infectious Hazard Management, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Claire Blackmore
- Infectious Hazard Management, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Anna Nagel
- Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Vienna, Austria
| | - Lika Janashvili
- Georgian Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | - Dafina Gexha
- National Institute of Public Health, Pristina, Kosovo
| | - Dinagul Otorbaeva
- Department of Disease Prevention and State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance, Ministry of Health, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
| | | | - Richard Pebody
- Infectious Hazard Management, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
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19
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Zitzmann C, Ke R, Ribeiro RM, Perelson AS. How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models? PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011437. [PMID: 38626190 PMCID: PMC11051641 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Revised: 04/26/2024] [Accepted: 04/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carolin Zitzmann
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
| | - Ruian Ke
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
| | - Ruy M. Ribeiro
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
| | - Alan S. Perelson
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
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20
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Li J, Zhuang C, Zou W. A tale of lockdown policies on the transmission of COVID-19 within and between Chinese cities: A study based on heterogeneous treatment effect. ECONOMICS AND HUMAN BIOLOGY 2024; 53:101365. [PMID: 38340650 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101365] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2023] [Revised: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
During the early outbreak phase of COVID-19 in China, lockdowns prevailed as the only available policy tools to mitigate the spread of infection. To evaluate the impact of lockdown policies in the context of the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic, we leverage data on daily confirmed cases per million people and related characteristics of a large set of cities. The study analyzed 369 Chinese cities, among which 188 implemented lockdowns of varying severity levels from January 23 to March 31, 2020. We use nationwide Baidu Mobility data to estimate the impact of lockdown policies on mitigating COVID-19 cases through reducing human mobility. We adopt a heterogeneous treatment effect model to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on containing confirmed case counts. Our results suggest that lockdowns substantially reduced human mobility, and larger reduction in mobility occurred within-city compared to between-city. The COVID-19 daily confirmed cases per million people decreased by 9% - 9.2% for every ten-percentage point fall in within-city travel intensity in t+7 timeframe. We also find that one city's lockdowns can effectively reduce the spillover cases of the traveler's destination cities. We find no evidence that stricter lockdowns are more effective at mitigating COVID-19 risks. Our findings provide practical insights about the effectiveness of NPI during the early outbreak phase of the unprecedented pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingjing Li
- Department of Strategic Management Engineering at National University of Defense Technology, Deya Rd, Kaifu District, Hunan 410073, China
| | - Chu Zhuang
- Department of Health Policy and Management at the University of Maryland, 4200 Valley Drive, College Park, MD 20742, United States.
| | - Wei Zou
- Department of Economics and Management School at Wuhan University, Luojia Hill, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China
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21
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Martinelli M, Veltri GA. COVID-19 vaccine acceptance: A comparative longitudinal analysis of the association between risk perception, confidence, and the acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2024; 44:802-816. [PMID: 37496470 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14200] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 07/01/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
Following the outbreak of COVID-19, scientists rushed to develop vaccines to protect individuals and ferry the world out of the pandemic. Unfortunately, vaccine hesitancy is a major threat to the success of vaccination campaigns. Research on previous pandemics highlighted the centrality of perceived risk and confidence as core determinants of vaccine acceptance. Research on COVID-19 is less conclusive, and frequently it relies on one-country, cross-sectional data, thus making it hard to generalize results across contexts and observe these relationships over time. To bridge these gaps, in this article, we analyzed the association between perceived risk, confidence, and vaccine acceptance cross-sectionally at individual and country levels. Then, we longitudinally explored whether a within-country variation in perceived risk and confidence was correlated with a variation in vaccine acceptance. We used data from a large-scale survey of individuals in 23 countries and 19 time-points between June 2020 and March 2021 and comparative longitudinal multilevel models to estimate the associations at different levels of analysis simultaneously. Results show the existence of cross-sectional relationships at the individual and country levels but no significant associations within countries over time. This article contributes to our understanding of the roles of risk perception and confidence in COVID-19 vaccines' acceptance by underlining that these relationships might differ at diverse levels of analysis. To foster vaccine uptake, it might be important to address individual concerns and persisting contextual characteristics, but increasing levels of perceived risk and confidence might not be a sufficient strategy to increase vaccine acceptance rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mauro Martinelli
- Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen, København, Denmark
| | - Giuseppe A Veltri
- Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
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22
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Mashoto KO, Nyamhagatta MA, Chacha MM, Kinyunyi P, Habib I, Kasanzu MR, Tinuga F. Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Among Health Workers and General Public in Tanzania. East Afr Health Res J 2024; 8:116-128. [PMID: 39234347 PMCID: PMC11371015 DOI: 10.24248/eahrj.v8i1.757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 09/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Insufficient knowledge about COVID-19 and low socioeconomic status have been associated with distrustful attitudes towards vaccination against COVID-19. Objective The aim of this study was to explore determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among the general population and health workers. Methods A cross sectional study was conducted in 16 councils which included; Milele, Mpanda, Newala, Simanjiro, Nanyumbu, Muleba, Longido, Ulanga, Igunga, Mbulu, Karatu, Mufindi, Mvomero, Kilolo and Tabora Town. A total of 427 health care workers and 1,907 individuals were sampled from health facilities and households. Structured questionnaires were used to collect the required information. Results Although the majority (93.2%) of health workers were vaccinated, 35.4% perceived their risk of getting COVID-19 infection as high. Self-reported uptake of COVID-19 vaccine was 42.4% among the general population. Significantly low proportion of the general population in Mufindi district council (7.5%) were vaccinated against COVID-19. Health workers' knowledge and perception on COVID-19 vaccination did not vary with socio-demographic factors. Among the general population, those who were separated/divorced (ARR: 0.8: 95% CI; 0.7 to 0.9), those who attained primary level of education (ARR: 0.8: 95% CI; 0.7 to 0.9), self-employed (ARR: 0.8: 95% CI; 0.7 to 0.9) and unemployed (ARR: 0.7: 95% CI; 0.6 to 0.8) were less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Having positive attitude (ARR: 1.2: 95% CI; 1.1 to 1.5) and perception (ARR:1.8: 95% CI; 1.5 to 2.2), and knowledge on COVID-19 prevention (ARR: 3.0: 95% CI; 2.1to 4.4) increased the likelihood COVID-19 vaccine uptake. Prior experience of vaccination against other diseases (ARR:1.2: 95% CI; 1.0 to1.3), having history of chronic diseases (ARR:1.3: 95% CI; 1.2 to 1.4) and a family member who died of COVID-19 (ARR:1.3: 95% CI; 1.1to1.4) were also determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake. Conclusion Uptake of COVID-19 vaccine among the general population was significantly low among individuals with primary level of education, self-employed, unemployed, and those who were divorced or separated. Individuals with comprehensive knowledge on COVID-19 vaccination, those with positive attitude and perception on COVID-19 vaccination, having history of chronic diseases, prior vaccination against other diseases, and having a family member who succumbed to COVID-19 increased the likelihood COVID-19 vaccine uptake among the general population. Provision of health education and implementation of socio-behavioural communication change interventions are necessary to equip the general population with appropriate knowledge to transform their negative attitude and perception on COVID-19 vaccination.
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23
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Ashique S, Mishra N, Mohanto S, Garg A, Taghizadeh-Hesary F, Gowda BJ, Chellappan DK. Application of artificial intelligence (AI) to control COVID-19 pandemic: Current status and future prospects. Heliyon 2024; 10:e25754. [PMID: 38370192 PMCID: PMC10869876 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the everyday livelihood of people has been monumental and unparalleled. Although the pandemic has vastly affected the global healthcare system, it has also been a platform to promote and develop pioneering applications based on autonomic artificial intelligence (AI) technology with therapeutic significance in combating the pandemic. Artificial intelligence has successfully demonstrated that it can reduce the probability of human-to-human infectivity of the virus through evaluation, analysis, and triangulation of existing data on the infectivity and spread of the virus. This review talks about the applications and significance of modern robotic and automated systems that may assist in spreading a pandemic. In addition, this study discusses intelligent wearable devices and how they could be helpful throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sumel Ashique
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Bengal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences & Research, Durgapur, 713212, West Bengal, India
| | - Neeraj Mishra
- Department of Pharmaceutics, Amity Institute of Pharmacy, Amity University, Gwalior, 474005, Madhya Pradesh, India
| | - Sourav Mohanto
- Department of Pharmaceutics, Yenepoya Pharmacy College & Research Centre, Yenepoya (Deemed to be University), Mangalore, Karnataka, 575018, India
| | - Ashish Garg
- Guru Ramdas Khalsa Institute of Science and Technology, Pharmacy, Jabalpur, M.P, 483001, India
| | - Farzad Taghizadeh-Hesary
- ENT and Head and Neck Research Center and Department, The Five Senses Health Institute, School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Clinical Oncology Department, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - B.H. Jaswanth Gowda
- Department of Pharmaceutics, Yenepoya Pharmacy College & Research Centre, Yenepoya (Deemed to be University), Mangalore, Karnataka, 575018, India
- School of Pharmacy, Queen's University Belfast, Medical Biology Centre, Belfast, BT9 7BL, UK
| | - Dinesh Kumar Chellappan
- Department of Life Sciences, School of Pharmacy, International Medical University, Bukit Jalil, Kuala Lumpur, 57000, Malaysia
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24
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Rubio A, de Toro M, Pérez-Pulido AJ. The most exposed regions of SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins are subject to strong positive selection and gene overlap may locally modify this behavior. mSystems 2024; 9:e0071323. [PMID: 38095866 PMCID: PMC10804949 DOI: 10.1128/msystems.00713-23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/10/2023] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic that emerged in 2019 has been an unprecedented event in international science, as it has been possible to sequence millions of genomes, tracking their evolution very closely. This has enabled various types of secondary analyses of these genomes, including the measurement of their sequence selection pressure. In this work, we have been able to measure the selective pressure of all the described SARS-CoV-2 genes, even analyzed by sequence regions, and we show how this type of analysis allows us to separate the genes between those subject to positive selection (usually those that code for surface proteins or those exposed to the host immune system) and those subject to negative selection because they require greater conservation of their structure and function. We have also seen that when another gene with an overlapping reading frame appears within a gene sequence, the overlapping sequence between the two genes evolves under a stronger purifying selection than the average of the non-overlapping regions of the main gene. We propose this type of analysis as a useful tool for locating and analyzing all the genes of a viral genome when an adequate number of sequences are available.IMPORTANCEWe have analyzed the selection pressure of all severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 genes by means of the nonsynonymous (Ka) to synonymous (Ks) substitution rate. We found that protein-coding genes are exposed to strong positive selection, especially in the regions of interaction with other molecules (host receptor and genome of the virus itself). However, overlapping coding regions are more protected and show negative selection. This suggests that this measure could be used to study viral gene function as well as overlapping genes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alejandro Rubio
- Faculty of Experimental Sciences, Genetics Area, Andalusian Centre for Developmental Biology (CABD, UPO-CSIC-JA), University Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Maria de Toro
- Genomics and Bioinformatics Core Facility, Center for Biomedical Research of La Rioja, Logroño, Spain
| | - Antonio J. Pérez-Pulido
- Faculty of Experimental Sciences, Genetics Area, Andalusian Centre for Developmental Biology (CABD, UPO-CSIC-JA), University Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
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25
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ÜNAL G, SEZGİN SD, SANCAR M. Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Levels in Pharmacists and Pharmacy Staff Following CoronaVac Vaccination. Turk J Pharm Sci 2024; 26:347-351. [PMID: 38254315 PMCID: PMC10803923 DOI: 10.4274/tjps.galenos.2023.50880] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/01/2023] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the seropositivity rate of pharmacists and pharmacy staff after the administration of two doses of the CoronaVac-SinoVac vaccine and to assess changes in their antibody levels according to sociodemographic characteristics. Materials and Methods This descriptive study was conducted between June 04, 2021 and September 30, 2021 in pharmacies located in Istanbul, Türkiye. The results of self-initiated immunoglobulin (Ig) G testing of the pharmacists and pharmacy staff, conducted at diagnostic laboratories contracted by the Istanbul Chamber of Pharmacists, were obtained using an online data collection tool. IgG measurements taken from 15 days up to 120 days after the two vaccine doses were included in the study. Participants were asked whether they smoked, had any chronic diseases (hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, diabetes, etc.), or took any medications. Subgroup analyses were performed for each method used to measure antibody levels. Results The study included 329 pharmacists/pharmacy staff (298 pharmacists and 31 pharmacy staff). The mean age of the participants was 49.7 ± 13.7 years, and 71.4% were female. The antibody positivity of the 329 participants was 94.9% following the two doses. The positivity rate was 95.4% in participants under 65 years of age, whereas it was 91.8% in those aged 65 years and over. There was no significant difference in the mean age between those with positive and negative antibody results (p > 0.05). Although antibody levels were lower older people, smokers, and those with chronic diseases, this difference was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Conclusion Seropositivity developed following the administration of two doses of CoronaVac-Sinovac vaccines. IgG antibody levels were lower in older adults, smokers, and those with chronic diseases, although not to a statistically significant extent. Further studies are needed to better understand the reasons for the different immunological responses to COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Güneş ÜNAL
- Istanbul Chamber of Pharmacists, Istanbul, Türkiye
| | | | - Mesut SANCAR
- Marmara University, Faculty of Pharmacy, Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Istanbul, Türkiye
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26
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Akimkin V, Semenenko TA, Ugleva SV, Dubodelov DV, Khafizov K. COVID-19 Epidemic Process and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Genetic Variants in the Russian Federation. MICROBIOLOGY RESEARCH 2024; 15:213-224. [DOI: 10.3390/microbiolres15010015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2025] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, etiologically related to a new coronavirus, has had a catastrophic impact on the demographic situation on a global scale. The aim of this study was to analyze the manifestations of the COVID-19 epidemic process, the dynamics of circulation, and the rate of the spread of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the Russian Federation. Retrospective epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 incidence from March 2020 to fall 2023 and molecular genetic monitoring of virus variability using next-generation sequencing technologies and bioinformatics methods were performed. Two phases of the pandemic, differing in the effectiveness of anti-epidemic measures and the evolution of the biological properties of the pathogen, were identified. Regularities of SARS-CoV-2 spread were determined, and risk territories (megacities), risk groups, and factors influencing the development of the epidemic process were identified. It was found that with each subsequent cycle of disease incidence rise, the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 decreased against the background of the increasing infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2. Data on the mutational variability of the new coronavirus were obtained using the Russian platform of viral genomic information aggregation (VGARus) deployed at the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology. Monitoring the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Russia revealed the dominance of Delta and Omicron variants at different stages of the pandemic. Data from molecular genetic studies are an essential component of epidemiologic surveillance for making management decisions to prevent the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 and allow for prompt adaptation to pandemic control tactics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasiliy Akimkin
- Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, 111123 Moscow, Russia
| | - Tatiana A. Semenenko
- Department of Epidemiology, National Research Centre of Epidemiology and Microbiology Named after the Honorary Academician N.F. Gamaleya, 123098 Moscow, Russia
| | - Svetlana V. Ugleva
- Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, 111123 Moscow, Russia
| | - Dmitry V. Dubodelov
- Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, 111123 Moscow, Russia
| | - Kamil Khafizov
- Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, 111123 Moscow, Russia
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27
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Bae J, Lee J, Hwang WT, Youn DY, Song H, Ahn J, Nam JS, Jang JS, Kim DW, Jo W, Kim TS, Suk HJ, Bae PK, Kim ID. Advancing Breathability of Respiratory Nanofilter by Optimizing Pore Structure and Alignment in Nanofiber Networks. ACS NANO 2024; 18:1371-1380. [PMID: 38060408 DOI: 10.1021/acsnano.3c06060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2024]
Abstract
Respiratory masks are the primary and most effective means of protecting individuals from airborne hazards such as droplets and particulate matter during public engagements. However, conventional electrostatically charged melt-blown microfiber masks typically require thick and dense membranes to achieve high filtration efficiency, which in turn cause a significant pressure drop and reduce breathability. In this study, we have developed a multielectrospinning system to address this issue by manipulating the pore structure of nanofiber networks, including the use of uniaxially aligned nanofibers created via an electric-field-guided electrospinning apparatus. In contrast to the common randomly collected microfiber membranes, partially aligned dual-nanofiber membranes, which are fabricated via electrospinning of a random 150 nm nanofiber base layer and a uniaxially aligned 450 nm nanofiber spacer layer on a roll-to-roll collector, offer an efficient way to modulate nanofiber membrane pore structures. Notably, the dual-nanofiber configuration with submicron pore structure exhibits increased fiber density and decreased volume density, resulting in an enhanced filtration efficiency of over 97% and a 50% reduction in pressure drop. This leads to the highest quality factor of 0.0781. Moreover, the submicron pore structure within the nanofiber networks introduces an additional sieving filtration mechanism, ensuring superior filtration efficiency under highly humid conditions and even after washing with a 70% ethanol solution. The nanofiber mask provides a sustainable solution for safeguarding the human respiratory system, as it effectively filters and inactivates human coronaviruses while utilizing 130 times fewer polymeric materials than melt-blown filters. This reusability of our filters and their minimum usage of polymeric materials would significantly reduce plastic waste for a sustainable global society.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaehyeong Bae
- Department of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, Kyung Hee University, 1732, Deogyeong-daero, Giheung-gu, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do 17104, Republic of Korea
| | - Jiyoung Lee
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208, United States
| | - Won-Tae Hwang
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Doo-Young Youn
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyunsub Song
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Jaewan Ahn
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong-Seok Nam
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Ji-Soo Jang
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Doo-Won Kim
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Woosung Jo
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Taek-Soo Kim
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyeon-Jeong Suk
- Department of Industrial Design, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Pan-Kee Bae
- BioNano Health Guard Research Center, 125 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
| | - Il-Doo Kim
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea
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28
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Yao J, Sterling K, Wang Z, Zhang Y, Song W. The role of inflammasomes in human diseases and their potential as therapeutic targets. Signal Transduct Target Ther 2024; 9:10. [PMID: 38177104 PMCID: PMC10766654 DOI: 10.1038/s41392-023-01687-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2022] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 10/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Inflammasomes are large protein complexes that play a major role in sensing inflammatory signals and triggering the innate immune response. Each inflammasome complex has three major components: an upstream sensor molecule that is connected to a downstream effector protein such as caspase-1 through the adapter protein ASC. Inflammasome formation typically occurs in response to infectious agents or cellular damage. The active inflammasome then triggers caspase-1 activation, followed by the secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines and pyroptotic cell death. Aberrant inflammasome activation and activity contribute to the development of diabetes, cancer, and several cardiovascular and neurodegenerative disorders. As a result, recent research has increasingly focused on investigating the mechanisms that regulate inflammasome assembly and activation, as well as the potential of targeting inflammasomes to treat various diseases. Multiple clinical trials are currently underway to evaluate the therapeutic potential of several distinct inflammasome-targeting therapies. Therefore, understanding how different inflammasomes contribute to disease pathology may have significant implications for developing novel therapeutic strategies. In this article, we provide a summary of the biological and pathological roles of inflammasomes in health and disease. We also highlight key evidence that suggests targeting inflammasomes could be a novel strategy for developing new disease-modifying therapies that may be effective in several conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Yao
- The National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disease, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100053, China
| | - Keenan Sterling
- Townsend Family Laboratories, Department of Psychiatry, Brain Research Center, The University of British Columbia, 2255 Wesbrook Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z3, Canada
| | - Zhe Wang
- The National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disease, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100053, China
| | - Yun Zhang
- The National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disease, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100053, China.
- Key Laboratory of Neurodegenerative Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing, P.R. China.
| | - Weihong Song
- The National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disease, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100053, China.
- Townsend Family Laboratories, Department of Psychiatry, Brain Research Center, The University of British Columbia, 2255 Wesbrook Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z3, Canada.
- Zhejiang Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders, Key Laboratory of Alzheimer's Disease of Zhejiang Province, School of Mental Health and The Affiliated Kangning Hospital, Institute of Aging, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 325000, China.
- Oujiang Laboratory (Zhejiang Lab for Regenerative Medicine, Vision and Brain Health), Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 325000, China.
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29
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John RS, Miller JC, Muylaert RL, Hayman DTS. High connectivity and human movement limits the impact of travel time on infectious disease transmission. J R Soc Interface 2024; 21:20230425. [PMID: 38196378 PMCID: PMC10777149 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
The speed of spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the importance of understanding how infections are transmitted in a highly connected world. Prior to vaccination, changes in human mobility patterns were used as non-pharmaceutical interventions to eliminate or suppress viral transmission. The rapid spread of respiratory viruses, various intervention approaches, and the global dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 underscore the necessity for epidemiological models that incorporate mobility to comprehend the spread of the virus. Here, we introduce a metapopulation susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model parametrized with human movement data from 340 cities in China. Our model replicates the early-case trajectory in the COVID-19 pandemic. We then use machine learning algorithms to determine which network properties best predict spread between cities and find travel time to be most important, followed by the human movement-weighted personalized PageRank. However, we show that travel time is most influential locally, after which the high connectivity between cities reduces the impact of travel time between individual cities on transmission speed. Additionally, we demonstrate that only significantly reduced movement substantially impacts infection spread times throughout the network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reju Sam John
- Massey University, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand
- University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
| | - Joel C. Miller
- La Trobe University, Melbourne 3086, Victoria, Australia
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30
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Isiguzo GC, Stefanovics E, Unamba NN, Mbam TT, Anyaehie UG, Chukwu CC, Anyaehie UB, Osy-Eneze C, Ibezim EO, Okoro UG, Njoku PO, Adimekwe AI, Ibediro K, Stefanovics G, Iheanacho T. Perceptions of the COVID-19 Vaccine and Willingness to Receive Vaccination among Health Workers in Nigeria: A Cross-sectional Study. Niger J Clin Pract 2024; 27:102-108. [PMID: 38317042 DOI: 10.4103/njcp.njcp_537_23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/01/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is a major barrier to vaccine uptake, and the achievement of herd immunity is required to reduce morbidity and mortality and protect the most vulnerable populations. In Nigeria, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has been high, and uptake remains very low. Healthcare workers (HCWs) in Nigeria can help support public health efforts to increase vaccine uptake. AIM This study evaluates Nigerian HCWs' acceptance and intent to recommend the COVID-19 vaccine. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Cross-sectional survey among 1,852 HCWs in primary, secondary, and tertiary care settings across Nigeria. Respondents included doctors, nurses, pharmacy workers, and clinical laboratory professionals who have direct clinical contact with patients in various healthcare settings. A 33-item questionnaire was used in the study, with two of the questions focused on the COVID-19 vaccine. The responses to the two questions were analyzed using Chi-square (c2) tests and independent t-tests to determine the acceptance of the vaccine. RESULTS The majority of respondents were younger than 34 years (n = 1,227; 69.2%) and primarily worked in hospitals (n = 1,278; 72.0%). Among the respondents, 79.2% (n = 1,467) endorsed the COVID-19 vaccine as a critical tool in reducing the impact of the disease, and 76.2% (n = 1,412) will accept and recommend the vaccine to their patients. The younger HCWs were more likely to endorse and recommend the vaccine to their patients. CONCLUSION There is a moderately high COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate among HCWs surveyed in our study. The confidence of HCWs in its use and their willingness to recommend it to their patients can provide a potentially useful element in increasing acceptance by the larger population in Nigeria.
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Affiliation(s)
- G C Isiguzo
- Department of Medicine, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital/Ebonyi State University Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | - E Stefanovics
- Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs New England Mental Illness Research and Education Clinical Center, West Haven, CT, USA
| | - N N Unamba
- Division of Cardiology, University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
| | - T T Mbam
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | - U G Anyaehie
- National Orthopedic Hospital Enugu, Enugu State, Nigeria
| | - C C Chukwu
- Department of Radiology, University of Calabar Teaching Hospital, Calabar, Cross River, Nigeria
| | - U B Anyaehie
- Department of Physiology, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Enugu, Nigeria
| | - C Osy-Eneze
- Colchester GP Vocational Training Scheme, NHS, England, UK
| | - E O Ibezim
- College of Medicine, Imo State University, Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria
| | - U G Okoro
- Family Practice Department, Franciscan Physician Network, Crown Point, Indiana, United States
| | - P O Njoku
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu, Nigeria
| | - A I Adimekwe
- Northallerton GP Vocational Training Scheme, NHS, England, UK
| | - K Ibediro
- Saskatchewan Health Authority, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - G Stefanovics
- U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs New England Mental Illness Research and Education Clinical Center, West Haven, CT, USA
| | - T Iheanacho
- Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs New England Mental Illness Research and Education Clinical Center, West Haven, CT, USA
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31
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Yang K, Qi H. The optimisation of public health emergency governance: a simulation study based on COVID-19 pandemic control policy. Global Health 2023; 19:95. [PMID: 38049904 PMCID: PMC10694993 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-023-00996-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked numerous studies on policy options for managing public health emergencies, especially regarding how to choose the intensity of prevention and control to maintain a balance between economic development and disease prevention. METHODS We constructed a cost-benefit model of COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control policies based on an epidemic transmission model. On this basis, numerical simulations were performed for different economies to analyse the dynamic evolution of prevention and control policies. These economies include areas with high control costs, as seen in high-income economies, and areas with relatively low control costs, exhibited in upper-middle-income economies. RESULTS The simulation results indicate that, at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, both high-and low-cost economies tended to enforce intensive interventions. However, as the virus evolved, particularly in circumstances with relatively rates of reproduction, short incubation periods, short spans of infection and low mortality rates, high-cost economies became inclined to ease restrictions, while low-cost economies took the opposite approach. However, the consideration of additional costs incurred by the non-infected population means that a low-cost economy is likely to lift restrictions as well. CONCLUSIONS This study concludes that variations in prevention and control policies among nations with varying income levels stem from variances in virus transmission characteristics, economic development, and control costs. This study can help researchers and policymakers better understand the differences in policy choice among various economies as well as the changing trends of dynamic policy choices, thus providing a certain reference value for the policy direction of global public health emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keng Yang
- Institute of Economics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
- One Belt-One Road Strategy Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Hanying Qi
- The New Type Key Think Tank of Zhejiang Province's "Research Institute of Regulation and Public Policy", Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
- China Institute of Regulation Research, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
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32
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Lacy A, Igoe M, Das P, Farthing T, Lloyd AL, Lanzas C, Odoi A, Lenhart S. Modeling impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics in St. Louis. JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS 2023; 17:2287084. [PMID: 38053251 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2287084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/17/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
The region of St. Louis, Missouri, has displayed a high level of heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases, hospitalization, and vaccination coverage. We investigate how human mobility, vaccination, and time-varying transmission rates influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmission in five counties in the St. Louis area. A COVID-19 model with a system of ordinary differential equations was developed to illustrate the dynamics with a fully vaccinated class. Using the weekly number of vaccinations, cases, and hospitalization data from five counties in the greater St. Louis area in 2021, parameter estimation for the model was completed. The transmission coefficients for each county changed four times in that year to fit the model and the changing behaviour. We predicted the changes in disease spread under scenarios with increased vaccination coverage. SafeGraph local movement data were used to connect the forces of infection across various counties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexanderia Lacy
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Morganne Igoe
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Praachi Das
- Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Trevor Farthing
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology and Comparative Medicine Institute, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Alun L Lloyd
- Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Cristina Lanzas
- Department of Population Health and Pathobiology and Comparative Medicine Institute, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Agricola Odoi
- Department of Biomedical and Diagnostics Sciences, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Suzanne Lenhart
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
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33
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Mallela A, Lin YT, Hlavacek WS. Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States. Epidemics 2023; 45:100718. [PMID: 37757572 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2022] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, R0. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific R0 values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for R0 range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: Initial contagiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 varied over a 4-fold range across urban areas of the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abhishek Mallela
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA; Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - Yen Ting Lin
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA; Information Sciences Group, Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
| | - William S Hlavacek
- Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA; Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA.
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Bansal S, Fleming T, Canez J, Maine GN, Bharat A, Walia R, Tokman S, Smith MA, Tiffany B, Bremner RM, Mohanakumar T. Immune responses of lung transplant recipients against SARS-CoV-2 and common respiratory coronaviruses: Evidence for pre-existing cross-reactive immunity. Transpl Immunol 2023; 81:101940. [PMID: 37866672 PMCID: PMC11019873 DOI: 10.1016/j.trim.2023.101940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2023] [Revised: 10/09/2023] [Accepted: 10/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Humoral and cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses in lung transplant recipients are unknown. We measured antibodies and T cell responses against the SARS-CoV-2 spike S2 and nucleocapsid antigens and spike antigens from common respiratory coronaviruses (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1) after vaccination or infection of LTxRs. 148 LTxRs from single center were included in this study: 98 after vaccination and 50 following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Antibodies were quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The frequency of T cells secreting IL2, IL4, IL10, IL17, TNFα, and IFNγ were enumerated by enzyme-linked immunospot assay. Our results have shown the development of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in infected LTxRs (39/50) and vaccinated LTxRs (52/98). Vaccinated LTxRs had higher number of T cells producing TNFα but less cells producing IFNγ than infected LTxRs in response to the nucleocapsid antigen and other coronavirus spike antigens. We didn't find correlation between the development of antibodies and cellular immune responses against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein after vaccination. Instead, LTxRs have pre-existing cellular immunity to common respiratory coronaviruses, leading to cross-reactive immunity against SARS-CoV-2 which likely will provide protection against SARS-Cov-2 infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandhya Bansal
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Timothy Fleming
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Jesse Canez
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Gabriel N Maine
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Royal Oak, Beaumont Health, MI, USA
| | | | - Rajat Walia
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Sofya Tokman
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Michael A Smith
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Brian Tiffany
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Ross M Bremner
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - T Mohanakumar
- Norton Thoracic Institute, St. Joseph's Hospital and Medical Center, Phoenix, AZ, USA.
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Gershfeld-Litvin A, Ressler I. Psychological experiences of patients recovering from severe COVID-19 in rehabilitation: A qualitative study. J Health Psychol 2023; 28:1320-1330. [PMID: 37246370 PMCID: PMC10227547 DOI: 10.1177/13591053231174940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
The aim of this study was to describe the experiences of post-sedation COVID-19 patients in rehabilitation. Eleven Israeli men and women were interviewed in semi-structured interviews. They were patients recovering in a neurological rehabilitation unit from severe COVID-19 post-mechanical ventilation and sedation. Five themes were generated through thematic analysis: "an unexpected turn of events," "filling the gaps," "emotional reactions," "ambiguity regarding medical condition," and "sense and meaning-making." Findings suggest a need for improved communication between patients and medical staff to enhance a sense of control and coherence. Psychological support should be considered to facilitate sense and meaning-making processes during hospitalization.
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Li X, Song Y. Structure and function of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 main proteases and their inhibition: A comprehensive review. Eur J Med Chem 2023; 260:115772. [PMID: 37659195 PMCID: PMC10529944 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejmech.2023.115772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Revised: 08/24/2023] [Accepted: 08/26/2023] [Indexed: 09/04/2023]
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) identified in 2003 infected ∼8000 people in 26 countries with 800 deaths, which was soon contained and eradicated by syndromic surveillance and enhanced quarantine. A closely related coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 identified in 2019, has been dramatically more contagious and catastrophic. It has infected and caused various flu-like symptoms of billions of people in >200 countries, including >6 million people died of or with the virus. Despite the availability of several vaccines and antiviral drugs against SARS-CoV-2, finding new therapeutics is needed because of viral evolution and a possible emerging coronavirus in the future. The main protease (Mpro) of these coronaviruses plays important roles in their life cycle and is essential for the viral replication. This article represents a comprehensive review of the function, structure and inhibition of SARS-CoV and -CoV-2 Mpro, including structure-activity relationships, protein-inhibitor interactions and clinical trial status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Li
- Department of Pharmacology and Chemical Biology, Baylor College of Medicine, 1 Baylor Plaza, Houston, TX, 77030, USA; Dan L. Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, 1 Baylor Plaza, Houston, TX, 77030, USA.
| | - Yongcheng Song
- Department of Pharmacology and Chemical Biology, Baylor College of Medicine, 1 Baylor Plaza, Houston, TX, 77030, USA; Dan L. Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, 1 Baylor Plaza, Houston, TX, 77030, USA.
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Drake JM, Handel A, Marty É, O’Dea EB, O’Sullivan T, Righi G, Tredennick AT. A data-driven semi-parametric model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1011610. [PMID: 37939201 PMCID: PMC10659176 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023] Open
Abstract
To support decision-making and policy for managing epidemics of emerging pathogens, we present a model for inference and scenario analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA. The stochastic SEIR-type model includes compartments for latent, asymptomatic, detected and undetected symptomatic individuals, and hospitalized cases, and features realistic interval distributions for presymptomatic and symptomatic periods, time varying rates of case detection, diagnosis, and mortality. The model accounts for the effects on transmission of human mobility using anonymized mobility data collected from cellular devices, and of difficult to quantify environmental and behavioral factors using a latent process. The baseline transmission rate is the product of a human mobility metric obtained from data and this fitted latent process. We fit the model to incident case and death reports for each state in the USA and Washington D.C., using likelihood Maximization by Iterated particle Filtering (MIF). Observations (daily case and death reports) are modeled as arising from a negative binomial reporting process. We estimate time-varying transmission rate, parameters of a sigmoidal time-varying fraction of hospitalized cases that result in death, extra-demographic process noise, two dispersion parameters of the observation process, and the initial sizes of the latent, asymptomatic, and symptomatic classes. In a retrospective analysis covering March-December 2020, we show how mobility and transmission strength became decoupled across two distinct phases of the pandemic. The decoupling demonstrates the need for flexible, semi-parametric approaches for modeling infectious disease dynamics in real-time.
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Affiliation(s)
- John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Andreas Handel
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Éric Marty
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Eamon B. O’Dea
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Tierney O’Sullivan
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Giovanni Righi
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Andrew T. Tredennick
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
- Western EcoSystems Technology, Inc., Laramie, Wyoming, United States of America
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Abril GA, Mateos AC, Tavera Busso I, Carreras HA. Environmental, meteorological and pandemic restriction-related variables affecting SARS-CoV-2 cases. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:115938-115949. [PMID: 37897573 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-30578-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/30/2023]
Abstract
Three years have passed since the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) brought the world to standstill. In most countries, the restrictions have ended, and the immunity of the population has increased; however, the possibility of new dangerous variants emerging remains. Therefore, it is crucial to develop tools to study and forecast the dynamics of future pandemics. In this study, a generalized additive model (GAM) was developed to evaluate the impact of meteorological and environmental variables, along with pandemic-related restrictions, on the incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Córdoba, Argentina. The results revealed that mean temperature and vegetation cover were the most significant predictors affecting SARS-CoV-2 cases, followed by government restriction phases, days of the week, and hours of sunlight. Although fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and NO2 were less related, they improved the model's predictive power, and a 1-day lag enhanced accuracy metrics. The models exhibited strong adjusted coefficients of determination (R2adj) but did not perform as well in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE). This suggests that the number of cases may not be the primary variable for controlling the spread of the disease. Furthermore, the increase in positive cases related to policy interventions may indicate the presence of lockdown fatigue. This study highlights the potential of data science as a management tool for identifying crucial variables that influence epidemiological patterns and can be monitored to prevent an overload in the healthcare system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriela Alejandra Abril
- IMBIV, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Av. Vélez Sarsfield 1611, X5016 GCA Cordoba, Argentina.
| | - Ana Carolina Mateos
- IMBIV, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Av. Vélez Sarsfield 1611, X5016 GCA Cordoba, Argentina
| | - Iván Tavera Busso
- IMBIV, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Av. Vélez Sarsfield 1611, X5016 GCA Cordoba, Argentina
| | - Hebe Alejandra Carreras
- IMBIV, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Av. Vélez Sarsfield 1611, X5016 GCA Cordoba, Argentina
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Khanam M, Sanin KI, Rita RS, Akand F, Rabbi MF, Hasan MK, Alam T, Ahmed T. COVID-19 vaccine barriers and perception among rural adults: a qualitative study in Bangladesh. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e074357. [PMID: 37852776 PMCID: PMC10603445 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-074357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges for global public healthcare, even with the authorisation of several vaccines worldwide. To better understand rural communities' knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and barriers towards these vaccines, we conducted a qualitative cross-sectional study with adults in rural Bangladesh. SETTING This cross-sectional study was conducted in the rural areas of Sylhet and Natore in Bangladesh from August 2021 to February 2022. PARTICIPANTS Our study involved 15 in-depth interviews with rural adults and 2 key informant interviews with health workers. RESULTS We analysed data thematically, resulting in four main themes: (1) knowledge and perception aspects, (2) myths and misconceptions, (3) practice and attitude and (4) barriers and challenges of COVID-19 vaccines. CONCLUSIONS The findings indicate that rural populations lack sufficient knowledge about COVID-19 vaccines but have a more favourable attitude towards them. Misconceptions, beliefs and personal experiences were found to be the main reasons for vaccine avoidance. To address these challenges and dispel the spread of misinformation, health education programmes play a pivotal role in improving vaccine management. Policy-makers should initiate these programmes without delay to create a well-informed and enlightened community, given that the COVID-19 is still spreading.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mansura Khanam
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Kazi Istiaque Sanin
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Razia Sultana Rita
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Farhana Akand
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Fozla Rabbi
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Khaledul Hasan
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tasnia Alam
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tahmeed Ahmed
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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Uchechukwu CF, Anyaduba UL, Udekwu CC, Orababa OQ, Kade AE. Desmoglein-2 and COVID-19 complications: insights into its role as a biomarker, pathogenesis and clinical implications. J Gen Virol 2023; 104. [PMID: 37815458 DOI: 10.1099/jgv.0.001902] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Desmoglein-2 (DSG2) has emerged as a potential biomarker for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) complications, particularly cardiac and cardiovascular involvement. The expression of DSG2 in lung tissues has been detected at elevated levels, and circulating DSG2 levels correlate with COVID-19 severity. DSG2 may contribute to myocardial injury, cardiac dysfunction and vascular endothelial dysfunction in COVID-19. Monitoring DSG2 levels could aid in risk stratification, early detection and prognostication of COVID-19 complications. However, further research is required to validate DSG2 as a biomarker. Such research will aim to elucidate its precise role in pathogenesis, establishing standardized assays for its measurement and possibly identifying therapeutic targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chidiebere F Uchechukwu
- Institute of Immunology and Immunotherapy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Nigeria
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Kumar G, Bhalla A, Mukherjee A, Turuk A, Talukdar A, Mukherjee S, Bhardwaj P, Menon GR, Sahu D, Misra P, Sharma LK, Mohindra R, S S, Suri V, Das H, Sarkar D, Ghosh S, Ghosh P, Dutta M, Chakraborty S, Kumar D, Gupta MK, Goel AD, Baruah TD, Kannauje PK, Shukla AK, Khambholja JR, Patel A, Shah N, Bhuniya S, Panigrahi MK, Mohapatra PR, Pathak A, Sharma A, John M, Kaur K, Nongpiur V, Pala S, Shivnitwar SK, Krishna BR, Dulhani N, Gupta B, Gupta J, Bhandari S, Agrawal A, Aggarwal HK, Jain D, Shah AD, Naik P, Panchal M, Anderpa M, Kikon N, Humtsoe CN, Sharma N, Vohra R, Patnaik L, Sahoo JP, Joshi R, Kokane A, Ray Y, Rajvansh K, Purohit HM, Shah NM, Madharia A, Dube S, Shrivastava N, Kataria S, Shameem M, Fatima N, Ghosh S, Hazra A, D H, Salgar VB, Algur S, M L KY, M PK, Panda S, Vishnu Vardhana Rao M, Bhargava B. Post COVID sequelae among COVID-19 survivors: insights from the Indian National Clinical Registry for COVID-19. BMJ Glob Health 2023; 8:e012245. [PMID: 37816536 PMCID: PMC10565174 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/12/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The effects of COVID-19 infection persist beyond the active phase. Comprehensive description and analysis of the post COVID sequelae in various population groups are critical to minimise the long-term morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19. This analysis was conducted with an objective to estimate the frequency of post COVID sequelae and subsequently, design a framework for holistic management of post COVID morbidities. METHODS Follow-up data collected as part of a registry-based observational study in 31 hospitals across India since September 2020-October 2022 were used for analysis. All consenting hospitalised patients with COVID-19 are telephonically followed up for up to 1 year post-discharge, using a prestructured form focused on symptom reporting. RESULTS Dyspnoea, fatigue and mental health issues were reported among 18.6%, 10.5% and 9.3% of the 8042 participants at first follow-up of 30-60 days post-discharge, respectively, which reduced to 11.9%, 6.6% and 9%, respectively, at 1-year follow-up in 2192 participants. Patients who died within 90 days post-discharge were significantly older (adjusted OR (aOR): 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03), with at least one comorbidity (aOR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.31, 2.35), and a higher proportion had required intensive care unit admission during the initial hospitalisation due to COVID-19 (aOR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.08, 2.06) and were discharged at WHO ordinal scale 6-7 (aOR: 49.13 95% CI: 25.43, 94.92). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination (at least one dose) was protective against such post-discharge mortality (aOR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03). CONCLUSION Hospitalised patients with COVID-19 experience a variety of long-term sequelae after discharge from hospitals which persists although in reduced proportions until 12 months post-discharge. Developing a holistic management framework with engagement of care outreach workers as well as teleconsultation is a way forward in effective management of post COVID morbidities as well as reducing mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gunjan Kumar
- Clinical Studies & Trials Unit, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Ashish Bhalla
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Aparna Mukherjee
- Clinical Studies & Trials Unit, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | - Alka Turuk
- Clinical Studies & Trials Unit, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | - Geetha R Menon
- National Institute of Medical Statistics, New Delhi, India
| | - Damodar Sahu
- National Institute of Medical Statistics, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | - Ritin Mohindra
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Samita S
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Vikas Suri
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Himadri Das
- Medical College and Hospital Kolkata, Kolkata, India
| | | | | | - Priyanka Ghosh
- College of Medicine and Sagore Dutta Hospital, Kolkata, India
| | - Moumita Dutta
- College of Medicine and Sagore Dutta Hospital, Kolkata, India
| | | | - Deepak Kumar
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Sourin Bhuniya
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, India
| | | | | | | | | | - Mary John
- Christian Medical College and Hospital, Ludhiana, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - H K Aggarwal
- Pandit Bhagwat Dayal Sharma Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Rohtak, India
| | - Deepak Jain
- Pandit Bhagwat Dayal Sharma Post Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Rohtak, India
| | - Arti D Shah
- SBKS Medical Institute and Research Centre, Vadodara, India
| | - Parshwa Naik
- SBKS Medical Institute and Research Centre, Vadodara, India
| | | | | | - Nyanthung Kikon
- Department of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Nagaland, Kohima, India
| | | | - Nikita Sharma
- Mahatma Gandhi Medical College and Hospital, Jaipur, India
| | - Rajaat Vohra
- Mahatma Gandhi Medical College and Hospital, Jaipur, India
| | | | | | - Rajnish Joshi
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, India
| | - Arun Kokane
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhopal, India
| | - Yogiraj Ray
- Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Kolkata, India
| | | | | | - Nehal M Shah
- Smt NHL Municipal Medical College, Ahmedabad, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Saumitra Ghosh
- Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Kolkata, India
| | - Avijit Hazra
- Department of Pharmacology, Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Kolkata, India
| | - Himanshu D
- King George Medical University, Lucknow, India
| | | | - Santosh Algur
- Gulbarga Institute of Medical Sciences, Gulbarga, India
| | - Kala Yadhav M L
- Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Medical College and Research Institution, Bengaluru, India
| | | | - Samiran Panda
- Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
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Abou Baker DH, Hassan EM, El Gengaihi S. An overview on medicinal plants used for combating coronavirus: Current potentials and challenges. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD RESEARCH 2023; 13:100632. [PMID: 37251276 PMCID: PMC10198795 DOI: 10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100632] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Worldwide, Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic crisis, causing many morbidities, mortality, and devastating impact on economies, so the current outbreak of the CoV-2 is a major concern for global health. The infection spread quickly and caused chaos in many countries around the world. The slow discovery of CoV-2 and the limited treatment options are among the main challenges. Therefore, the development of a drug that is safe and effective against CoV-2 is urgently needed. The present overview briefly summarizes CoV-2 drug targets ex: RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), papain-like protease (PLpro), 3-chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro), transmembrane serine protease enzymes (TMPRSS2), angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), structural protein (N, S, E, and M), and virulence factors (NSP1, ORF7a, and NSP3c) for which drug design perspective can be considered. In addition, summarize all anti-COVID-19 medicinal plants and phytocompounds and their mechanisms of action to be used as a guide for further studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Doha H Abou Baker
- Medicinal and Aromatic Plants Dept., Pharmaceutical and Drug Industries Institute, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Emad M Hassan
- Medicinal and Aromatic Plants Dept., Pharmaceutical and Drug Industries Institute, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Souad El Gengaihi
- Medicinal and Aromatic Plants Dept., Pharmaceutical and Drug Industries Institute, National Research Centre, Cairo, Egypt
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Phan T, Brozak S, Pell B, Oghuan J, Gitter A, Hu T, Ribeiro RM, Ke R, Mena KD, Perelson AS, Kuang Y, Wu F. Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks. WATER RESEARCH 2023; 243:120372. [PMID: 37494742 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2023.120372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2023] [Revised: 07/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tin Phan
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA
| | - Samantha Brozak
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Bruce Pell
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Lawrence Technological University, MI 48075, USA
| | - Jeremiah Oghuan
- School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Anna Gitter
- School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Tao Hu
- Department of Geography, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
| | - Ruy M Ribeiro
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA
| | - Ruian Ke
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA
| | - Kristina D Mena
- School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA; Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute, Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Alan S Perelson
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87544, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA
| | - Yang Kuang
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Fuqing Wu
- School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA; Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
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Violaris IG, Lampros T, Kalafatakis K, Ntritsos G, Kostikas K, Giannakeas N, Tsipouras M, Glavas E, Tsalikakis D, Tzallas A. Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic: Focusing on the case of Greece. Epidemics 2023; 44:100706. [PMID: 37423142 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2020] [Revised: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/11/2023] Open
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) pandemic created an unprecedented chain of events at a global scale, with European counties initially following individual pathways on the confrontation of the global healthcare crisis, before organizing coordinated public vaccination campaigns, when proper vaccines became available. In the meantime, the viral infection outbreaks were determined by the inability of the immune system to retain a long-lasting protection as well as the appearance of SARS-CoV-2 variants with differential transmissibility and virulence. How do these different parameters regulate the domestic impact of the viral epidemic outbreak? We developed two versions of a mathematical model, an original and a revised one, able to capture multiple factors affecting the epidemic dynamics. We tested the original one on five European countries with different characteristics, and the revised one in one of them, Greece. For the development of the model, we used a modified version of the classical SEIR model, introducing various parameters related to the estimated epidemiology of the pathogen, governmental and societal responses, and the concept of quarantine. We estimated the temporal trajectories of the identified and overall active cases for Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy and Sweden, for the first 250 days. Finally, using the revised model, we estimated the temporal trajectories of the identified and overall active cases for Greece, for the duration of the 1230 days (until June 2023). As shown by the model, small initial numbers of exposed individuals are enough to threaten a large percentage of the population. This created an important political dilemma in most countries. Force the virus to extinction with extremely long and restrictive measures or merely delay its spread and aim for herd immunity. Most countries chose the former, which enabled the healthcare systems to absorb the societal pressure, caused by the increased numbers of patients, requiring hospitalization and intensive care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ioannis G Violaris
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece
| | - Theodoros Lampros
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece
| | - Konstantinos Kalafatakis
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece; Institute of Health Sciences Education, Barts and the London School of Medicine & Dentistry (Malta campus), Queen Mary University of London, Victoria, Malta.
| | - Georgios Ntritsos
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece
| | - Konstantinos Kostikas
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, University Hospital of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece
| | - Nikolaos Giannakeas
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece
| | - Markos Tsipouras
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Western Macedonia, Kozani, Greece
| | - Evripidis Glavas
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece
| | - Dimitrios Tsalikakis
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Western Macedonia, Kozani, Greece
| | - Alexandros Tzallas
- Faculty of Informatics & Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Arta, Greece
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Cassidy T. A Continuation Technique for Maximum Likelihood Estimators in Biological Models. Bull Math Biol 2023; 85:90. [PMID: 37650951 PMCID: PMC10471725 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-023-01200-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023]
Abstract
Estimating model parameters is a crucial step in mathematical modelling and typically involves minimizing the disagreement between model predictions and experimental data. This calibration data can change throughout a study, particularly if modelling is performed simultaneously with the calibration experiments, or during an on-going public health crisis as in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, the optimal parameter set, or maximal likelihood estimator (MLE), is a function of the experimental data set. Here, we develop a numerical technique to predict the evolution of the MLE as a function of the experimental data. We show that, when considering perturbations from an initial data set, our approach is significantly more computationally efficient that re-fitting model parameters while producing acceptable model fits to the updated data. We use the continuation technique to develop an explicit functional relationship between fit model parameters and experimental data that can be used to measure the sensitivity of the MLE to experimental data. We then leverage this technique to select between model fits with similar information criteria, a priori determine the experimental measurements to which the MLE is most sensitive, and suggest additional experiment measurements that can resolve parameter uncertainty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tyler Cassidy
- School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK.
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Eslamian G, Khoshnoodifar M, Malek S. Students' perception of e-learning during the Covid-19 pandemic: a survey study of Iranian nutrition science students. BMC MEDICAL EDUCATION 2023; 23:598. [PMID: 37608284 PMCID: PMC10464311 DOI: 10.1186/s12909-023-04585-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 08/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 pandemic caused university closures, which created learning challenges for students worldwide. Switching to online educational systems had significant impact on students' performances. The current study aims to investigate the perception of university students from the Nutrition Science department regarding e-learning in Iran. METHODS The design of the study is cross-sectional. Data were collected through online surveys from Iranian students from the Nutrition Sciences Department. Stratified random sampling was used to randomly select 955 participants. A self-administered validated questionnaire was used for data collection. Descriptive statistics, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Chi-Square tests were used for analysis of the data. RESULTS Results revealed that 67.2% of students didn't have any former experience of e-learning. About 38.3% had moderate levels of Information Technology (IT) skills. Our results revealed that based on students' responses, being able to stay at home was one of the most common benefits of e-learning (39.1%). However, the most common challenge that students faced was related to technical problems (39.6%). When compared to e-learning, most students preferred face-to face type of learning. Students believed that this method no only increased their knowledge but also their skills and social competence as compared to e-learning. Only 28% of students rated e-learning as enjoyable. Furthermore, acceptance of online based education was statistically associated with students' degree level. CONCLUSION In conclusion, students reported both advantages and disadvantages of e-learning but still reported that face-to-face learning is considered the most effective form of learning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ghazaleh Eslamian
- Department of Cellular and Molecular Nutrition, Faculty of Nutrition and Food Technology, National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Department of e-learning, Virtual School of Medical Education and Management, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, NO. 2823, Valiasr St, P.O.Box: 1966645641, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehrnoosh Khoshnoodifar
- Department of e-learning, Virtual School of Medical Education and Management, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, NO. 2823, Valiasr St, P.O.Box: 1966645641, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Shirin Malek
- Department of Nutrition and Food Science, California State University, Chico, CA, USA
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Al-Bawab R, Abu-Farha R, El-Dahiyat F, Nassar RI, Zawiah M. A qualitative assessment of the adverse effects associated with COVID-19 vaccines: a study from Jordan. J Pharm Policy Pract 2023; 16:100. [PMID: 37563664 PMCID: PMC10416411 DOI: 10.1186/s40545-023-00605-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/12/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The current study aimed to qualitatively explore the side effects reported by participants who received the COVID-19 vaccine among the Jordanian population. METHODS Between April 18th and May 12th, 2022, an in-depth interview was conducted with a purposive sample of vaccinated individuals to assess the side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine in this study. Thematic analysis was used to identify themes and sub-themes within the current qualitative data. RESULTS A total of 20 participants were interviewed. They had a mean age of 41.3 (SD = 14.3) years. Half of the participants were females (n = 10, 50.0%). The study revealed six main themes: first, most of the respondents believed that COVID-19 vaccines were safe. Second, the vaccines are not equivalent in their safety. The third there showed that participants follow preventive measures to decrease the possibility of experiencing side effects. The fourth theme showed that reporting of side effects by the participants is dependent on the experienced side effects. Moreover, the next theme revealed that participants showed hesitancy to take more than one type of vaccine. Finally, participants were willing to take the vaccine annually, because they believed that the vaccine is better than the disease itself and decreases the aggressive effects of the disease. CONCLUSIONS This study found that the majority of participants believed in the safety of the COVID-19 vaccines and emphasized the responsibility of the healthcare providers in increasing awareness among the population about the importance of the vaccines. Enhancing such awareness is essential to improve the acceptance of receiving different types of vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rawan Al-Bawab
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics, Faculty of Pharmacy, Applied Science Private University, Amman, Jordan
| | - Rana Abu-Farha
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics, Faculty of Pharmacy, Applied Science Private University, Amman, Jordan
| | - Faris El-Dahiyat
- Clinical Pharmacy Program, College of Pharmacy, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
- AAU Health and Biomedical Research Center, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | - Razan I Nassar
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics, Faculty of Pharmacy, Applied Science Private University, Amman, Jordan
| | - Mohammed Zawiah
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Clinical Pharmacy, Hodeidah University, Al Hodeidah, Yemen.
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Pustake M, Giri P, Ganiyani MA, Mumtaz K, Deshmukh K, Saju M, Nunez JV, Orlova N, Das A. Drawing Parallels between SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A Comparative Overview of Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Pathological Features. Indian J Community Med 2023; 48:518-524. [PMID: 37662119 PMCID: PMC10470569 DOI: 10.4103/ijcm.ijcm_460_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Since November 2019, when the novel coronavirus arose in Wuhan City, over 188 million people worldwide have been infected with COVID-19. It is the third coronavirus outbreak in the twenty-first century. Until now, practically all coronavirus epidemics have occurred due to zoonotic spread from an animal or transitional host or through the consumption of their products. Coronaviruses can infect humans and cause severe illness and even death. Material and Methods This review was designed to help us recognize and harmonize the similarities and differences between these three coronaviridae family members. Result Measures aimed at containing the epidemic should be emphasized in this circumstance. Prioritizing and planning these activities require an understanding of the particulars of these three viruses. Given the pandemic's enormous death toll and rapid spread, we should be cognizant of the parallels and differences between these three viruses. Additionally, this pandemic warns us to be cautious against the possibility of a future pandemic. Conclusion We highlight the fundamental characteristics of coronaviruses that are critical for recognizing coronavirus epidemiology, pathogenesis, and pathological features that reveal numerous significant pathological attributes and evolutionary patterns in the viral genome that aid in better understanding and anticipating future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manas Pustake
- Department of Internal Medicine, Grant Govt. Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Purushottam Giri
- Department of Community Medicine, IIMSR Medical College, Jalna, Maharashtra, India
| | - Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Grant Govt. Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Kahkashan Mumtaz
- Department of Pediatrics, Grant Govt. Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Krishna Deshmukh
- Department of Internal Medicine, Grant Govt. Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Michael Saju
- Department of Community Medicine, Grant Govt. Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | | | | | - Arghadip Das
- Department of Pathology, Nil Ratan Sircar Medical College and Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
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Li C, Wang C, Xie HY, Huang L. Cell-Based Biomaterials for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prevention and Therapy. Adv Healthc Mater 2023; 12:e2300404. [PMID: 36977465 DOI: 10.1002/adhm.202300404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to threaten human health, economic development, and national security. Although many vaccines and drugs have been explored to fight against the major pandemic, their efficacy and safety still need to be improved. Cell-based biomaterials, especially living cells, extracellular vesicles, and cell membranes, offer great potential in preventing and treating COVID-19 owing to their versatility and unique biological functions. In this review, the characteristics and functions of cell-based biomaterials and their biological applications in COVID-19 prevention and therapy are described. First the pathological features of COVID-19 are summarized, providing enlightenment on how to fight against COVID-19. Next, the classification, organization structure, characteristics, and functions of cell-based biomaterials are focused on. Finally, the progress of cell-based biomaterials in overcoming COVID-19 in different aspects, including the prevention of viral infection, inhibition of viral proliferation, anti-inflammation, tissue repair, and alleviation of lymphopenia are comprehensively described. At the end of this review, a look forward to the challenges of this aspect is presented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chuyu Li
- School of Medical Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, P. R. China
| | - Chenguang Wang
- School of Medical Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, P. R. China
| | - Hai-Yan Xie
- School of Medical Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, P. R. China
| | - Lili Huang
- School of Medical Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, P. R. China
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50
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Goldberg EE, Lin Q, Romero-Severson EO, Ke R. Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from 'zero-COVID' policy. Nat Commun 2023; 14:3888. [PMID: 37393346 PMCID: PMC10314942 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39638-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/21/2023] [Indexed: 07/03/2023] Open
Abstract
In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict 'zero-COVID' policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma E Goldberg
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics (T-6), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
| | - Qianying Lin
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics (T-6), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
| | - Ethan O Romero-Severson
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics (T-6), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA
| | - Ruian Ke
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics (T-6), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA.
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