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Menéndez R, Méndez R, Latorre A, González-Jiménez P, Peces-Barba G, Molina-Molina M, España PP, García E, Consuegra-Vanegas A, García-Clemente MM, Panadero C, Figueira-Gonçalves JM, De la Rosa-Carrillo D, Sibila O, Martínez-Pitarch MD, Toledo-Pons N, López-Ramírez C, Almonte-Batista W, Macías-Paredes A, Villamon M, Domínguez-Álvarez M, Pérez-Rodas EN, Lázaro J, Quirós S, Cordovilla R, Cano-Pumarega I, Torres A. Clustering patients with COVID-19 according to respiratory support requirements, and its impact on short- and long-term outcome (RECOVID study). Pulmonology 2025; 31:2442175. [PMID: 39750717 DOI: 10.1080/25310429.2024.2442175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 11/19/2024] [Indexed: 01/04/2025] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The Spanish Society of Pulmonology and Thoracic Surgery created a registry for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 and the different types of respiratory support used (RECOVID). Objectives. To describe the profile of hospitalised patients with COVID-19, comorbidities, respiratory support treatments and setting. In addition, we aimed to identify varying profiles of patients according to outcomes and the complexity of respiratory support needed. METHODS Multicentre, observational study in 49 Spanish hospitals. A protocol collected demographic data, comorbidities, respiratory support, treatment setting and 1-year follow-up. Patients were described using either frequency and percentages or median and interquartile range, as appropriate. A cluster analysis made it possible to identify different types of profile among the patients. RESULTS In total, 2148 of 2454 hospitalised patients (87.5%) received care in the conventional ward, whilst 126 in IRCU and 180 in ICU. In IRCU, 30% required high-flow nasal oxygen whilst 25%, non-invasive mechanical ventilation and 17%, mechanical ventilation. Four clusters of patients were identified. Two clusters were more likely to require IRCU/ICU admission, although primarily Cluster 2: Cluster (C) 1 consisted of patients without comorbidities and C2, those with comorbidities. Both presented higher inflammatory levels and lower lymphocyte count and SpO2/FiO2; however, C2 showed worse values. Two different clusters identified patients requiring less complex respiratory support. C3 presented higher comorbidities and elevated lymphocyte count, SpO2/FiO2 and low C-reactive protein (CRP). C4 included those without comorbidities except for arterial hypertension, lymphopenia and an intermediate CRP. In-hospital mortality and subsequent 1-year mortality were greater for C2 (28.6% and 7.1%) and C1 (11.1%, 8.3%) than for C4 (3.3%, 1.8%) and C3 (0%, 0%). CONCLUSIONS The cluster analysis identified four clinical phenotypes requiring distinct types of respiratory support, with great differences present per characteristics and outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rosario Menéndez
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Universitario y Politécnico La Fe, Valencia, Spain
- Respiratory Infections, Research Institute La Fe (IISLAFE), Valencia, Spain
| | - Raúl Méndez
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Universitario y Politécnico La Fe, Valencia, Spain
- Respiratory Infections, Research Institute La Fe (IISLAFE), Valencia, Spain
| | - Ana Latorre
- Respiratory Infections, Research Institute La Fe (IISLAFE), Valencia, Spain
| | - Paula González-Jiménez
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Universitario y Politécnico La Fe, Valencia, Spain
- Respiratory Infections, Research Institute La Fe (IISLAFE), Valencia, Spain
| | | | - María Molina-Molina
- ILD Unit, Pneumology Service, Hospital Universitario de Bellvitge-IDIBELL, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain
| | | | - Estela García
- Pneumology Service, Hospital de Cabueñes, Gijón, Spain
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Oriol Sibila
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Clínic, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Nuria Toledo-Pons
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Son Espases-Balearic Islands Health Research Institute (IdISBa), Palma, Spain
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Javier Lázaro
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Royo Villanova, Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Sarai Quirós
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Basurto, Bilbao, Spain
| | | | - Irene Cano-Pumarega
- Sleep Unit, Pneumology Service, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRYCIS, Madrid, Spain
| | - Antoni Torres
- Pneumology Service, Hospital Clínic, Barcelona, Spain
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Maguire C, Soloveichik E, Blinchevsky N, Miller J, Morrison R, Busch J, Michael Brode W, Wylie D, Rousseau J, Melamed E. Dissecting clinical features of COVID-19 in a cohort of 21,312 acute care patients. COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE 2025; 5:138. [PMID: 40281203 PMCID: PMC12032146 DOI: 10.1038/s43856-025-00844-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/04/2025] [Indexed: 04/29/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although, COVID-19 has resulted in over 7 million deaths globally, many questions still remain about the risk factors for disease severity and the effects of variants and vaccinations over the course of the pandemic. To address this gap, we conducted a retrospective analysis of electronic health records from COVID-19 patients over 2.5 years of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify associated clinical features. METHODS We analyze a retrospective cohort of 21,312 acute-care patients over a 2.5 year period and define six clinical trajectory groups (TGs) associated with demographics, diagnoses, vitals, labs, imaging, consultations, and medications. RESULTS We show that the proportion of mild patients increased over time, particularly during Omicron waves. Additionally, while mild and fatal patients had differences in age, age did not distinguish patients with severe versus critical disease. Furthermore, we find that both male sex and Hispanic/Latino ethnicity are associated with more severe/critical TGs. More severe patients also have a higher rate of neuropsychiatric diagnoses and consultations, along with an immunological signature of high neutrophils and immature granulocytes, and low lymphocytes and monocytes. Interestingly, low albumin is one of the best lab predictors of COVID-19 severity in association with higher malnutrition in severe/critical patients, raising concern of nutritional insufficiency influencing COVID-19 outcomes. Despite this, only a small fraction of severe/critical patients had nutritional labs checked (e.g. Vitamin D, thiamine, B vitamins) or received vitamin supplementation. CONCLUSIONS Our findings expand on clinical risk factors in COVID-19, and highlight the interaction between severity, nutritional status, and neuropsychiatric complications in acute care patients to enable identification of patients at risk for severe disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cole Maguire
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at, Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Elie Soloveichik
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at, Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Netta Blinchevsky
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at, Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Jaimie Miller
- Enterprise Data Intelligence, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Robert Morrison
- Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Johanna Busch
- Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - W Michael Brode
- Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Dennis Wylie
- Center for Biomedical Support, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
| | - Justin Rousseau
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at, Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA
- Biostatistics and Clinical Informatics Section, Department of Neurology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA
- Peter O'Donnell Jr. Brain Institute, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Esther Melamed
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at, Austin, Dell Medical School, Austin, TX, USA.
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Barker TH, Hasanoff S, Aromataris E, Stone JC, Leonardi-Bee J, Sears K, Habibi N, Klugar M, Tufanaru C, Moola S, Liu XL, Munn Z. The revised JBI critical appraisal tool for the assessment of risk of bias for cohort studies. JBI Evid Synth 2025; 23:441-453. [PMID: 39177422 DOI: 10.11124/jbies-24-00103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/24/2024]
Abstract
Cohort studies are a robust analytical observational study design that explore the difference in outcomes between two cohorts, differentiated by their exposure status. Despite being observational in nature, they are often included in systematic reviews of effectiveness, particularly when randomized controlled trials are limited or not feasible. Like all studies included in a systematic review, cohort studies must undergo a critical appraisal process to assess the extent to which a study has considered potential bias in its design, conduct, or analysis. Critical appraisal tools facilitate this evaluation. This paper introduces the revised critical appraisal tool for cohort studies, completed by the JBI Effectiveness Methodology Group, who are currently revising the suite of JBI critical appraisal tools for quantitative study designs. The revised tool responds to updates in methodological guidance from the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group and reporting guidance from PRISMA 2020, providing a robust framework for evaluating risk of bias in a cohort study. Transparent and rigorous assessment using this tool will assist reviewers in understanding the validity and relevance of the results and conclusions drawn from a systematic review that includes cohort studies. This may contribute to better evidence-based decision-making in health care. This paper discusses the key changes made to the tool, outlines justifications for these changes, and provides practical guidance on how this tool should be interpreted and applied by systematic reviewers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy H Barker
- JBI, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Health Evidence Synthesis, Recommendations and Impact (HESRI), School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Sabira Hasanoff
- Health Evidence Synthesis, Recommendations and Impact (HESRI), School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Edoardo Aromataris
- JBI, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Jennifer C Stone
- JBI, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Jo Leonardi-Bee
- The Nottingham Centre for Evidence Based Healthcare: A JBI Centre of Excellence, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham UK
| | - Kim Sears
- Queen's Collaboration for Health Care Quality: A JBI Centre of Excellence, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nahal Habibi
- JBI, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Miloslav Klugar
- Czech National Centre for Evidence-Based Healthcare and Knowledge Translation (Cochrane Czech Republic, Czech EBHC: JBI Centre of Excellence, Masaryk University GRADE Centre), Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
- Center for Evidence-Based Education and Arts Therapies: A JBI Affiliated Group, Faculty of Education, Palacký University Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic
| | - Catalin Tufanaru
- Centre for Health Informatics, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Sandeep Moola
- Health Economics and Value Assessment, Sanofi Healthcare India Pvt Ltd, India
| | - Xian-Liang Liu
- School of Nursing and Health Studies, Hong Kong Metropolitan University, Homantin, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Zachary Munn
- Health Evidence Synthesis, Recommendations and Impact (HESRI), School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
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Wemhöner L, Brandts C, Dinse H, Skoda EM, Jansen S, Teufel M, Rohn H, Dodel R. Consequences of COVID-19 for geriatric patients during a pandemic. Sci Rep 2025; 15:3136. [PMID: 39856128 PMCID: PMC11759943 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-84379-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2024] [Accepted: 12/23/2024] [Indexed: 01/27/2025] Open
Abstract
To investigate the outcomes of geriatric COVID-19 patients in a German academic setting during the pandemic. This study included 468 consecutive geriatric patients (≥ 70 years) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and were treated at the University of Duisburg-Essen from 2/2020 to 3/2021. 74 patients were transferred to a geriatric hospital and a 12-month follow-up (prospective study) was performed in 51 patients. Clinical assessments evaluated depression (GDS), apathy (AES), cognitive status (MMST), mobility (TUG), health status (EQ-5D-5 L), and daily living activities (Barthel Index). Demographic and clinical data were also analyzed. Results showed that the mortality in this vulnerable group was 52% (n = 209). Long-term survival was higher in patients who received comprehensive geriatric treatment (74.3% vs. 51.8%). The duration of inpatient stay at the primary hospital was 13.3 ± 3.6 days, with 28.8% (n = 135) requiring intensive care. At the 12-month mark more patients with geriatric treatment lived in nursing homes. Barthel-Index/Timed-Up-and-Go-Test/MMST/AES/GDS, and EQ-5D-5 L indicated worse outcomes in the group who received geriatric treatment. Specialized geriatric care may improve survival in geriatric COVID-19 patients despite decreased long-term outcomes. Further research, including international studies like NAPKON, are encouraged to confirm these findings and explore potential interventions for improved outcomes in this vulnerable population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ludwig Wemhöner
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
- Department of Infectious Diseases, West German Centre of Infectious Diseases, University Medicine Essen University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Charlotte Brandts
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
- Department of Infectious Diseases, West German Centre of Infectious Diseases, University Medicine Essen University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Hannah Dinse
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
- Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Eva-Maria Skoda
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
- Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Sarah Jansen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, West German Centre of Infectious Diseases, University Medicine Essen University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Martin Teufel
- Clinic for Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, LVR-University Hospital, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
- Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Hana Rohn
- Department of Infectious Diseases, West German Centre of Infectious Diseases, University Medicine Essen University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Richard Dodel
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
- Center for Translational Neuro- and Behavioral Sciences (C-TNBS), University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
- Chair of Geriatric Medicine, University Duisburg-Essen, Virchowstrasse 171, 45356, Essen, Germany.
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Bril V, Gilhus NE. Aging and infectious diseases in myasthenia gravis. J Neurol Sci 2025; 468:123314. [PMID: 39671879 DOI: 10.1016/j.jns.2024.123314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2024] [Revised: 11/07/2024] [Accepted: 11/16/2024] [Indexed: 12/15/2024]
Abstract
Over the past 120 years, mortality associated with myasthenia gravis (MG) has steadily decreased while the incidence of MG has increased. While mortality due to MG has been ≤5 % for at least the past 25 years, the prevalence of MG has increased. This increase in prevalence of MG may be due, in part, to improvements in diagnostics but also to an aging global population and immunosenescence as the largest increases in MG prevalence have been in patients ≥65 years old. In fact, a "very late-onset" subtype of MG has been proposed for patients diagnosed at or after age 65 years. These patients are predominantly anti-AChR antibody positive and thymoma negative. Preferred therapeutic options differ based on age at MG onset. Immunosenescence may play a role not only in MG etiology but also in the increased susceptibility of MG patients to infection. Immunosuppressive effects of MG therapies can also increase vulnerability to infection. Despite the improvements in MG treatment, mortality in MG patients remains higher than in the non-MG population. This is partly due to increased vulnerability to infection but also due to infection acting as a precipitating factor for MG exacerbation or crisis. The increased infection risk inherent with MG and the increased risk resulting from some therapies calls for increased diligence in monitoring and treating infections in MG patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vera Bril
- Division of Neurology, Department of Medicine, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Nils Erik Gilhus
- Department of Neurology, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway; Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
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Marcelino BDR, Vieira MCDS, Silva MJA, da Silva LCSS, Gurrão EPDC, Dos Santos EC, Cabral JG, Souza AB, Sardinha DM, Marinho RL, Bispo SKDS, Lima KVB, Lima LNGC. Study of TNF-α, IFN-γ, IL-10, TGF-β and IL-6 Gene Polymorphisms in a Cohort of Professionals Who Worked in the First Pandemic Wave in the Brazilian Amazon. Crit Rev Immunol 2025; 45:39-61. [PMID: 39976517 DOI: 10.1615/critrevimmunol.2024055001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2025]
Abstract
Genetic polymorphisms in genes that enable the production of an effective host immune response, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPS) in the IL-6, INF-alpha, IFN-gamma, IL-10, TGF-beta genes can cause unfavorable clinical conditions or susceptibility to pathologies. The objective of this work is to evaluate the epidemiological and genetic profile of professionals from health institutions during the first pandemic wave. A case-control study was performed with convenience sampling from health institutions (HI) workers from Belém-PA, Northern Brazil (N = 213), divided into symptomatology groups (Asymptomatic-AS, n = 91; and Symptomatic-SI, n = 122); and severity groups classified by chest computerized tomography-CCT data (symptomatic with pulmonary involvement-SCP, n = 37; symptomatic without pulmonary involvement-SSP, n = 8). Genotyping was performed by sanger sequencing for SNP TNF-α -308 G/A (rs1800629), IFN-γ +874 T/A (rs2430561), TGF-β codon 10 (rs1982073), codon 25 (rs1800471), IL-6 - 174 G/C (rs180079), IL-10 - 1082 A/T (rs1800896), -819 C/T (rs1800871), and -592 A/C (rs1800872), and statistical analysis through the Epilfo program. Significant association was observed between the presence of comorbidities and poor prognosis of COVID-19 (especially between COVID-19 and overweight and obesity). Only the TNF-α 308 G/A snp was significantly associated with the symptoms and severity of COVID-19. These findings about this TNF-α SNP passed in the multiple testing correction at a false discovery rate (FDR)< 0.05. These data can help medicine and the scientific community understand the influence of genetics and epidemiological parameters in combating COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beatriz Dos Reis Marcelino
- Master and PhD Program in Parasitic Biology in the Amazon (PPGBPA), University of State of Pará (UEPA), Belém 66087-670, PA, Brazil
| | - Marcelo Cleyton da Silva Vieira
- Master and PhD Program in Parasitic Biology in the Amazon (PPGBPA), University of State of Pará (UEPA), Belém 66087-670, PA, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Jeanne Gonçalves Cabral
- Bacteriology and Mycology Section (SABMI), Evandro Chagas Institute (IEC), Ananindeua 67030-000, PA, Brazil
| | - Alex Brito Souza
- Bacteriology and Mycology Section (SABMI), Evandro Chagas Institute (IEC), Ananindeua 67030-000, PA, Brazil
| | - Daniele Melo Sardinha
- Master and PhD Program in Parasitic Biology in the Amazon (PPGBPA), University of State of Pará (UEPA), Belém 66087-670, PA, Brazil
| | - Rebecca Lobato Marinho
- Master and PhD Program in Parasitic Biology in the Amazon (PPGBPA), University of State of Pará (UEPA), Belém 66087-670, PA, Brazil
| | | | - Karla Valéria Batista Lima
- Bacteriology and Mycology Section (SABMI), Evandro Chagas Institute (IEC), Ananindeua 67030-000, PA, Brazil
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Tiniakou E, Casciola‐Rosen L, Thomas MA, Manabe Y, Antar AAR, Damarla M, Hassoun PM, Gao L, Wang Z, Zeger S, Rosen A. Autoantibodies in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Clin Transl Immunology 2024; 13:e70019. [PMID: 39734590 PMCID: PMC11671454 DOI: 10.1002/cti2.70019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2024] [Revised: 10/07/2024] [Accepted: 11/13/2024] [Indexed: 12/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Objectives CD209L and its homologous protein CD209 act as alternative entry receptors for the SARS-CoV-2 virus and are highly expressed in the virally targeted tissues. We tested for the presence and clinical features of autoantibodies targeting these receptors and compared these with autoantibodies known to be associated with COVID-19. Methods Using banked samples (n = 118) from Johns Hopkins patients hospitalised with COVID-19, we defined autoantibodies against CD209 and CD209L by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Clinical associations of these antibodies were compared with those of patients with anti-interferon (IFN) and anti-angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) autoantibodies. Results Amongst patients hospitalised with COVID-19, 19.5% (23/118) had IgM autoantibodies against CD209L and were more likely to have coronary artery disease (44% vs 19%, P = 0.03). Antibodies against CD209 were present in 5.9% (7/118); interestingly, all 7 were male (P = 0.02). In our study, the presence of either antibody was positively associated with disease severity [OR 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.80 (0.69-5.03)], but the association did not reach statistical significance. In contrast, 10/118 (8.5%) had IgG autoantibodies against IFNα, and 21 (17.8%) had IgM antibodies against ACE2. These patients had significantly worse prognosis (intubation or death) and prolonged hospital stays. However, when adjusting for patient characteristics on admission, only the presence of anti-ACE2 IgM remained significant [pooled common OR (95% CI), 4.14 (1.37, 12.54)]. Conclusion We describe IgM autoantibodies against CD209 and CD209L amongst patients hospitalised with COVID-19. These were not associated with disease severity. Conversely, patients with either anti-ACE2 IgM or anti-IFNα IgG antibodies had worse outcomes. Due to the small size of the study cohort, conclusions drawn should be considered cautiously.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eleni Tiniakou
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Livia Casciola‐Rosen
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Mekha A Thomas
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Yuka Manabe
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Annukka AR Antar
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Mahendra Damarla
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Paul M Hassoun
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Li Gao
- Division of Allergy and Immunology, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University, School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Zitong Wang
- Department of BiostatisticsBloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Scott Zeger
- Department of BiostatisticsBloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimoreMDUSA
| | - Antony Rosen
- Division of Rheumatology, Department of MedicineJohns Hopkins University School of MedicineBaltimoreMDUSA
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Chesdachai S, Rivera CG, Rosedahl JK, Philpot LM, Dholakia R, Borah BJ, Draper EW, Arndt R, Ganesh R, Larsen JJ, Destro Borgen MJ, Razonable RR. Outpatient remdesivir treatment program for hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease-2019: Patient perceptions, process and economic impact. HEALTHCARE (AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS) 2024; 12:100750. [PMID: 39142233 DOI: 10.1016/j.hjdsi.2024.100750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Revised: 06/28/2024] [Accepted: 08/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/16/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Remdesivir is FDA-approved for the treatment of hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. Many patients improve clinically to allow for hospital dismissal before completing the 5-day course. In a prior work, patients who continued remdesivir in an outpatient setting experienced better 28-day clinical outcomes. Here, we assessed patients' perspectives and the economic impact of this outpatient practice. METHODS Hospitalized patients who received remdesivir for COVID-19 at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, from 11/6/2020 to 11/5/2021 and were dismissed to continue remdesivir in the outpatient setting were surveyed. The cost of care was compared between those who remained hospitalized versus those who were dismissed. RESULTS 93 (19.8 %) among 470 eligible patients responded to the electronic survey. Responders were older than non-responders. The majority (70.5 %) had symptoms resolved by the time of the survey. Ten (11.4 %) patients had persistent symptoms attributed to long COVID-19. The majority were satisfied with the quality of care (82.3 %) and overall experience (76.0 %) in the infusion clinic. After adjusting for gender, comorbidity score, and WHO severity scale, the predicted costs for the groups were $16,544 (inpatient) and $9,097 (outpatient) per patient (difference of $7,447; p < .01). An estimate of 1,077 hospital bed-days were made available to other patients as a result of this transition to outpatient. CONCLUSION An outpatient remdesivir program that allowed for early dismissal was perceived favorably by patients. The program resulted in significant cost and resource savings, the latter in terms of the availability of hospital beds for other patients needing critical services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Supavit Chesdachai
- Division of Public Health, Infectious Diseases, and Occupational Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
| | | | - Jordan K Rosedahl
- Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Lindsey M Philpot
- Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; Department of Community Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Ruchita Dholakia
- Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Bijan J Borah
- Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Evan W Draper
- Department of Pharmacy, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Richard Arndt
- Department of Pharmacy, Mayo Clinic Health System, Eau Claire, WI, USA
| | - Ravindra Ganesh
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | | | - Molly J Destro Borgen
- Division of Public Health, Infectious Diseases, and Occupational Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Raymund R Razonable
- Division of Public Health, Infectious Diseases, and Occupational Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
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Zhou B, Zong NC, Zhang Y, Huang Y, Youn JY, Cai H. Clinical characteristics of a COVID-19 cohort treated at UCLA Ronald Reagan Medical Center during the breaking phase of the pandemic: A retrospective study. Redox Biol 2024; 75:103178. [PMID: 38986245 PMCID: PMC11280086 DOI: 10.1016/j.redox.2024.103178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2024] [Revised: 04/08/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024] Open
Abstract
To this date, COVID-19 remains an unresolved pandemic, and the impairment of redox homeostasis dictates the severity of clinical outcomes. Here we examined initial UCLA cohort of 440 COVID-19 patients hospitalized between March 1st and April 1st, 2020, representing the first wave of the pandemic. The mean age was 58.88 ± 21.12, among which males were significantly more than females (55.5 % vs. 44.5 %), most distinctively in age group of 50-69. The age groups of 50-69 (33.6 %) and ≥70 (34.8 %) dominated. The racial composition was in general agreement with Census data with slight under-representation of Hispanics and Asians, and over-representation of Caucasians. Smoking was a significant factor (28.8 % vs. 11.0 % in LA population), likewise for obesity (BMI ≥30) (37.4 % vs. 27.7 % in LA population). Patients suffering from obesity or BMI<18.5 checked into ICU at a significantly higher rate. A 74.5 % of the patients had comorbidities including diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure and peripheral vascular disease. The levels of d-dimer were drastically upregulated (1159.5 ng/mL), indicating hypercoagulative state. Upregulated LDH (328 IU/L) indicated significant tissue damages. A distorted redox hemeostasis is a common trait associated with these risk factors and clinical markers. A quarter of the patients received antivirals, among which Remdesivir most prescribed (23.6 %). Majority received antithrombotics (75 %), and antibiotics. Upon admission, 67 patients were intubated or received CPR; 177 patients eventually received intensive care (40.2 %). While 290 were discharged alive, 10 remained hospitalized, 73 were transferred, and 36 died with 3 palliatively discharged. In summary, our data fully characterized a Californian cohort of COVID-19 at the breaking phase of the pandemic, indicating that population demographics, biophysical characters, comorbidities and molecular pathological parameters have significant impacts on the evolvement of a pandemic. These provide critical insights into effective management of COVID-19, and future break from another pathogen.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Zhou
- Division of Molecular Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA
| | - Nobel Chenggong Zong
- Division of Molecular Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA
| | - Yuhan Zhang
- Division of Molecular Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA
| | - Yuanli Huang
- Division of Molecular Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA
| | - Ji-Youn Youn
- Division of Molecular Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA
| | - Hua Cai
- Division of Molecular Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, California, 90095, USA.
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10
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Wu YH, Nordling TEM. A structured course of disease dataset with contact tracing information in Taiwan for COVID-19 modelling. Sci Data 2024; 11:821. [PMID: 39048578 PMCID: PMC11269566 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03627-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has flooded open databases with population-level data. However, individual-level structured data, such as the course of disease and contact tracing information, is almost non-existent in open databases. Publish a structured and cleaned COVID-19 dataset with the course of disease and contact tracing information for easy benchmarking of COVID-19 models. We gathered data from Taiwanese open databases and daily news reports. The outcome is a structured quantitative dataset encompassing the course of the disease of Taiwanese individuals, alongside their contact tracing information. Our dataset comprises 579 confirmed cases covering the period from January 21, to November 9, 2020, when the original SARS-CoV-2 virus was most prevalent in Taiwan. The data include features such as travel history, age, gender, symptoms, contact types between cases, date of symptoms onset, confirmed, critically ill, recovered, and dead. We also include the daily summary data at population-level from January 21, 2020, to May 23, 2022. Our data can help enhance epidemiological modelling.
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Grants
- 105-2218-E-006-016-MY2 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 105-2911-I-006-518 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 107-2634-F-006-009 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 110-2222-E-006-010 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 105-2218-E-006-016-MY2 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 105-2911-I-006-518 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 107-2634-F-006-009 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- 110-2222-E-006-010 Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan)
- National Science and Technology Council, Taiwan, 111-2221-E-006-186 National Science and Technology Council, Taiwan, 112-2314-B-006-079
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu-Heng Wu
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1 University Rd., Tainan, 701, Taiwan
| | - Torbjörn E M Nordling
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1 University Rd., Tainan, 701, Taiwan.
- Department of Applied Physics and Electronics, Umeå University, Umeå, 90187, Sweden.
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11
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Trevissón-Redondo B, Pérez-Boal E, Liébana-Presa C, Martínez-Fernández MC, Losa-Iglesias ME, Becerro-de-Bengoa-Vallejo R, Martínez-Jiménez EM. Impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the cognitive functioning of patients institutionalized in nursing homes. BMC Geriatr 2024; 24:612. [PMID: 39020269 PMCID: PMC11256422 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-024-05210-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 disease affected the cognitive level of institutionalized patients in nursing homes, especially in the older subjects regardless of gender. This study aims to assess cognitive impairment using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) before and after COVID-19 infection, and to determine whether these changes varied based on gender. METHODS A pre- and post-COVID-19 study was conducted, involving 68 geriatric patients (34 men and 34 women) from two nursing homes. Cognitive impairment was assessed using the MMSE. RESULTS COVID-19 infection had a notable impact on the cognitive health of older adults residing in nursing homes, primarily attributed to the social isolation they experienced. This effect was more pronounced in older individuals. A comparison of the MMSE results by gender before and after contracting COVID-19 revealed significant differences in attention and calculation, with women obtaining the worst score before the virus. However, following their recovery from the virus, men demonstrated significantly lower scores in time and space orientation and evocation. CONCLUSION COVID-19 has led to a decline in cognitive functioning, significantly worsening the mental state of older individuals, even after recovery from the virus. Consequently, it is crucial to implement proactive measures to prevent isolation and safeguard the cognitive well-being of this vulnerable population.
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12
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Barion BG, Rocha TRFD, Ho YL, Mazetto Fonseca BDM, Okazaki E, Rothschild C, Stefanello B, Rocha VG, Villaça PR, Orsi FA. Extracellular vesicles are a late marker of inflammation, hypercoagulability and COVID-19 severity. Hematol Transfus Cell Ther 2024; 46:176-185. [PMID: 38341321 DOI: 10.1016/j.htct.2023.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Revised: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 02/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Exacerbated inflammation and coagulation are a hallmark of COVID-19 severity. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are intercellular transmitters involved in inflammatory conditions, which are capable of triggering prothrombotic mechanisms. Since the release of EVs is potentially associated with COVID-19-induced coagulopathy, the aim of this study was to evaluate changes in inflammation- and hypercoagulability-related EVs during the first month after symptom onset and to determine whether they are associated with disease severity. Blood samples of patients with mild or severe forms of the disease were collected on three occasions: in the second, third and fourth weeks after symptom onset for the quantification by flow cytometry of CD41A (platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa), CD162 (PSGL-1), CD31 (PECAM-1) and CD142 cells (tissue factor). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures, Kruskal-Wallis and correlation tests were used. Eighty-five patients were enrolled, 71% of whom had mild disease. Seventeen uninfected individuals served as controls. Compared to controls, both mild and severe COVID-19 were associated with higher EV-CD31+, EV-CD41+ and EV-CD142+ levels. All EV levels were higher in severe than in mild COVID-19 only after the third week from symptom onset, as opposed to C-reactive protein and D-dimer levels, which were higher in severe than in mild COVID-19 earlier during disease progression. EV levels were also associated with C-reactive protein and D-dimer levels only after the third week of symptoms. In conclusion, EVs expressing CD41A, CD31, TF, and CD162 appear as late markers of COVID-19 severity. This finding may contribute to the understanding of the pathogenesis of acute and possibly long COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Yeh-Li Ho
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Erica Okazaki
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Cynthia Rothschild
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Bianca Stefanello
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Vanderson Geraldo Rocha
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Paula Ribeiro Villaça
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Fernanda A Orsi
- Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São (HCFMUSP), Sao Paulo, Brazil; Department of Pathology, School of Medical Sciences, Universidade de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil.
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13
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Drouin A, Plumb ID, McCullough M, James Gist J, Liu S, Theberge M, Katz J, Moreida M, Flaherty S, Chatwani B, Briggs Hagen M, Midgley CM, Fusco D. Clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 in New Orleans, August 2020 to September 2021. Sci Rep 2024; 14:6539. [PMID: 38503862 PMCID: PMC10951213 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-57306-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/17/2024] [Indexed: 03/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Louisiana experienced high morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. To assess possible explanatory factors, we conducted a cohort study (ClinSeqSer) of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in New Orleans during August 2020-September 2021. Following enrollment, we reviewed medical charts, and performed SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing on nasal and saliva specimens. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess associations between patient characteristics and severe illness, defined as ≥ 6 L/min oxygen or intubation. Among 456 patients, median age was 56 years, 277 (60.5%) were Black non-Hispanic, 436 (95.2%) had underlying health conditions, and 358 were unvaccinated (92.0% of 389 verified). Overall, 187 patients (40.1%) had severe illness; 60 (13.1%) died during admission. In multivariable models, severe illness was associated with age ≥ 65 years (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.22-3.56), hospitalization > 5 days after illness onset (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.01-2.21), and SARS CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) result of < 32 in saliva (OR 4.79, 95% CI 1.22-18.77). Among patients who were predominantly Black non-Hispanic, unvaccinated and with underlying health conditions, approximately 1 in 3 patients had severe COVID-19. Older age and delayed time to admission might have contributed to high case-severity. An association between case-severity and low Ct value in saliva warrants further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arnaud Drouin
- Department of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, LA, 70130, USA
- University Medical Center, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Ian D Plumb
- Applied Epidemiology Studies Team, Epidemiology Branch, and on detail to the Global Respiratory Viruses Branch Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | | | - Sharon Liu
- Department of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, LA, 70130, USA
| | - Marc Theberge
- Department of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, LA, 70130, USA
| | - Joshua Katz
- Department of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, LA, 70130, USA
| | - Matthew Moreida
- Department of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, LA, 70130, USA
| | - Shelby Flaherty
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Bhoomija Chatwani
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Melissa Briggs Hagen
- Applied Epidemiology Studies Team, Epidemiology Branch, and on detail to the Global Respiratory Viruses Branch Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Claire M Midgley
- Applied Epidemiology Studies Team, Epidemiology Branch, and on detail to the Global Respiratory Viruses Branch Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Dahlene Fusco
- Department of Medicine, Tulane University School of Medicine, 1430 Tulane Avenue, New Orleans, LA, 70130, USA.
- University Medical Center, New Orleans, LA, USA.
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA.
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14
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Bartlett ML, Sova D, Jain M. Hereditary Connective Tissue Diseases and Risk of Post-Acute SARS-CoV-2. Viruses 2024; 16:461. [PMID: 38543826 PMCID: PMC10974169 DOI: 10.3390/v16030461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2024] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/15/2024] [Indexed: 04/01/2024] Open
Abstract
We completed a retrospective review of data collected by the JH-CROWN consortium based on ICD10 codes for a hospitalized cohort. The severity and prevalence of COVID-19 and development of PASC within heritable connective tissue diseases were unknown; however, clinical observation suggested a thorough examination was necessary. We compared rates of disease severity, death, and PASC in connective tissue diseases versus the entire cohort as well as in diabetes and hypertension to determine if connective tissue disease was a risk factor. Of the 15,676 patients in the database, 63 (0.40%) had a connective tissue disease, which is elevated relative to the distribution in the population, suggesting a higher risk of severe disease. Within these 63 patients, 9.52% developed PASC compared to 2.54% in the entire cohort (p < 0.005). Elucidation of populations at high risk for severe disease and development of PASC is integral to improving treatment approaches. Further, no other study to date has examined the risk in those with connective tissue diseases and these data support a need for enhanced awareness among physicians, patients, and the community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maggie L. Bartlett
- W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 212051, USA
| | - Daniel Sova
- John Hopkins Medicine, Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Baltimore, MD 212052, USA
| | - Mahim Jain
- Bone Disorders Program, Kennedy Krieger Institute, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA;
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15
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Yadav KN, Hemmons J, Snider CK, Patel A, Childs M, Delgado MK. Association between patient-reported onset-to-door time and mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 disease. Am J Emerg Med 2024; 77:169-176. [PMID: 38157591 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2023.11.044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2023] [Revised: 11/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/23/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Timely hospital presentation and treatment are critical for recovery from coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, the relationship between symptom onset-to-door time and key clinical outcomes, such as inpatient mortality, has been poorly understood due to the difficulty of retrospectively measuring symptom onset in observational data. This study examines the association between patient-reported symptom onset-to-door time (ODT) and mortality among patients hospitalized and treated for COVID-19 disease. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of emergency department (ED) encounters of patients with COVID-19 disease who were hospitalized and received remdesivir and/or dexamethasone between March 1, 2020, and March 1, 2022. The exposure was patient-reported ODT in days. The outcome of interest was inpatient mortality, including referral to hospice care. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine the association between ODT and mortality while adjusting for patient characteristics, hospital sites, and seasonality. We tested whether severe illness on hospital presentation modified the association between ODT and mortality. Severe illness was defined by Emergency Severity Index triage level 1 or 2 and hypoxia (SpO2 < 94%). RESULTS Of the 3451 ED hospitalizations included, 439 (12.7%) resulted in mortality, and 1693 (49.1%) involved patients with severe illness on hospital presentation. Greater ODT was significantly associated with lower odds of inpatient mortality (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-1.00, P = 0.023). There was a statistically significant interaction between ODT and severe illness at hospital arrival on mortality, suggesting the negative association between ODT and mortality specifically pertained to patients who were not severely ill upon ED presentation (AOR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.87-1.00, P = 0.035). The adjusted probability of mortality was significantly lower for non-severely ill, hospitalized patients who presented on days 8-14 (5.2%-3.3%) versus days 0-3 (9.4%-7.5%) after symptom onset. CONCLUSION More days between symptom onset and hospital arrival were associated with lower mortality among hospitalized patients treated for COVID-19 disease, particularly if they did not have severe illness at ED presentation. However, onset-to-door time was not associated with mortality among hospitalized patients with severe illness at ED presentation. Collectively, these results suggest that non-severely ill COVID-19 patients who require hospitalization are less likely to decompensate with each passing day without severe illness. These findings may continue to guide clinical care delivery for hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuldeep N Yadav
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
| | - Jessica Hemmons
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
| | - Christopher K Snider
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
| | - Arjun Patel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
| | - Maya Childs
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
| | - M Kit Delgado
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
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16
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Hyun DG, Lee SY, Ahn JH, Hong SB, Lim CM, Koh Y, Huh JW. Prognosis of mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 after failure of high-flow nasal cannula: a retrospective cohort study. Respir Res 2024; 25:109. [PMID: 38429645 PMCID: PMC10905875 DOI: 10.1186/s12931-024-02671-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is an argument whether the delayed intubation aggravate the respiratory failure in Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to investigate the effect of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) failure before mechanical ventilation on clinical outcomes in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19. METHODS This retrospective cohort study included mechanically ventilated patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) between February 2020 and December 2021 at Asan Medical Center. The patients were divided into HFNC failure (HFNC-F) and mechanical ventilation (MV) groups according to the use of HFNC before MV. The primary outcome of this study was to compare the worst values of ventilator parameters from day 1 to day 3 after mechanical ventilation between the two groups. RESULTS Overall, 158 mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 were included in this study: 107 patients (67.7%) in the HFNC-F group and 51 (32.3%) in the MV group. The two groups had similar profiles of ventilator parameter from day 1 to day 3 after mechanical ventilation, except of dynamic compliance on day 3 (28.38 mL/cmH2O in MV vs. 30.67 mL/H2O in HFNC-F, p = 0.032). In addition, the HFNC-F group (5.6%) had a lower rate of ECMO at 28 days than the MV group (17.6%), even after adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.83; p = 0.045). CONCLUSIONS Among mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients, HFNC failure before mechanical ventilation was not associated with deterioration of respiratory failure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong-Gon Hyun
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Su Yeon Lee
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Jee Hwan Ahn
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang-Bum Hong
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Chae-Man Lim
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Younsuck Koh
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea
| | - Jin Won Huh
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul, 05505, Republic of Korea.
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17
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De Vito A, Saderi L, Colpani A, Puci MV, Zauli B, Fiore V, Fois M, Meloni MC, Bitti A, Moi G, Maida I, Babudieri S, Sotgiu G, Madeddu G. New score to predict COVID-19 progression in vaccine and early treatment era: the COVID-19 Sardinian Progression Score (CSPS). Eur J Med Res 2024; 29:123. [PMID: 38360688 PMCID: PMC10868088 DOI: 10.1186/s40001-024-01718-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several scores aimed at predicting COVID-19 progression have been proposed. As the variables vaccination and early SARS-CoV-2 treatment were systematically excluded from the prognostic scores, the present study's objective was to develop a new model adapted to the current epidemiological scenario. METHODS We included all patients evaluated by the Infectious Disease Unit in Sassari, with SARS-CoV-2 infection and without signs of respiratory failure at the first evaluation (P/F > 300). Disease progression was defined by the prescription of supplemental oxygen. In addition, variables related to demographics, vaccines, comorbidities, symptoms, CT scans, blood tests, and therapies were collected. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was performed to determine factors associated with progression; any variable with significant univariate test or clinical relevance was selected as a candidate for multivariate analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit statistic was calculated. Odds ratio values were used to derive an integer score for developing an easy-to-use progression risk score. The discrimination performance of the risk index was determined using the AUC, and the best cut-off point, according to the Youden index, sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and likelihood ratio, was chosen. RESULTS 1145 patients [median (IQR) age 74 (62-83) years; 53.5% males] were enrolled; 336 (29.3%) had disease progression. Patients with a clinical progression were older and showed more comorbidities; furthermore, they were less vaccinated and exposed to preventive therapy. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, age ≥ 60 years, COPD, dementia, haematological tumours, heart failure, exposure to no or one vaccine dose, fever, dyspnoea, GGO, consolidation, ferritin, De Ritis ≥ 1.2, LDH, and no exposure to early anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatment were associated with disease progression. The final risk score ranged from 0 to 45. The ROC curve analysis showed an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.90-0.93) with a 93.7% specificity and 72.9% sensitivity. Low risk was defined when the cut-off value was less than 23. Three risk levels were identified: low (0-23 points), medium (24-35), and high (≥ 36). CONCLUSIONS The proportion of patients with progression increases with high scores: the assessment of the risk could be helpful for clinicians to plan appropriate therapeutic strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea De Vito
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy.
- PhD School in Biomedical Science, Biomedical Science Department, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy.
| | - Laura Saderi
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Agnese Colpani
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Mariangela V Puci
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Beatrice Zauli
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Vito Fiore
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Marco Fois
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Maria Chiara Meloni
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Alessandra Bitti
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Giulia Moi
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Ivana Maida
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Sergio Babudieri
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Giovanni Sotgiu
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
| | - Giordano Madeddu
- Unit of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100, Sassari, Italy
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18
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Plášek J, Dodulík J, Gai P, Hrstková B, Škrha J, Zlatohlávek L, Vlasáková R, Danko P, Ondráček P, Čubová E, Čapek B, Kollárová M, Fürst T, Václavík J. A Simple Risk Formula for the Prediction of COVID-19 Hospital Mortality. Infect Dis Rep 2024; 16:105-115. [PMID: 38391586 PMCID: PMC10887710 DOI: 10.3390/idr16010008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2023] [Revised: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 01/24/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients. We aimed to assess the risk factors for hospital mortality in non-vaccinated patients during the 2021 spring wave in the Czech Republic. A total of 991 patients hospitalized between January 2021 and March 2021 with a PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory infection in two university hospitals and five rural hospitals were included in this analysis. After excluding patients with unknown outcomes, 790 patients entered the final analyses. Out of 790 patients included in the analysis, 282/790 (35.7%) patients died in the hospital; 162/790 (20.5) were male and 120/790 (15.2%) were female. There were 141/790 (18%) patients with mild, 461/790 (58.3%) with moderate, and 187/790 (23.7%) with severe courses of the disease based mainly on the oxygenation status. The best-performing multivariate regression model contains only two predictors-age and the patient's state; both predictors were rendered significant (p < 0.0001). Both age and disease state are very significant predictors of hospital mortality. An increase in age by 10 years raises the risk of hospital mortality by a factor of 2.5, and a unit increase in the oxygenation status raises the risk of hospital mortality by a factor of 20.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiří Plášek
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, University Hospital Ostrava, 708 52 Ostrava, Czech Republic; (J.D.); (J.V.)
- Centre for Research on Internal Medicine and Cardiovascular Diseases, University of Ostrava, 703 00 Ostrava, Czech Republic
| | - Jozef Dodulík
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, University Hospital Ostrava, 708 52 Ostrava, Czech Republic; (J.D.); (J.V.)
| | - Petr Gai
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine and Tuberculosis, University Hospital Ostrava, 708 52 Ostrava, Czech Republic;
| | - Barbora Hrstková
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Ostrava, 708 52 Ostrava, Czech Republic;
| | - Jan Škrha
- Department of Internal Medicine, General University Hospital, 128 08 Prague, Czech Republic; (J.Š.J.); (L.Z.); (R.V.)
| | - Lukáš Zlatohlávek
- Department of Internal Medicine, General University Hospital, 128 08 Prague, Czech Republic; (J.Š.J.); (L.Z.); (R.V.)
| | - Renata Vlasáková
- Department of Internal Medicine, General University Hospital, 128 08 Prague, Czech Republic; (J.Š.J.); (L.Z.); (R.V.)
| | - Peter Danko
- Department of Internal Medicine, Havířov Regional Hospital, 736 01 Havířov, Czech Republic;
| | - Petr Ondráček
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bílovec Regional Hospital, 743 01 Bílovec, Czech Republic;
| | - Eva Čubová
- Department of Internal Medicine, Fifejdy City Hospital, 728 80 Ostrava, Czech Republic;
| | - Bronislav Čapek
- Department of Internal Medicine, Associated Medical Facilities, 794 01 Krnov, Czech Republic;
| | - Marie Kollárová
- Department of Internal Medicine, Třinec Regional Hospital, 739 61 Třinec, Czech Republic;
| | - Tomáš Fürst
- Department of Mathematical Analysis and Application of Mathematics, Palacky University, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic;
| | - Jan Václavík
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, University Hospital Ostrava, 708 52 Ostrava, Czech Republic; (J.D.); (J.V.)
- Centre for Research on Internal Medicine and Cardiovascular Diseases, University of Ostrava, 703 00 Ostrava, Czech Republic
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Saksena NK, Reddy SB, Miranda-Saksena M, Cardoso THS, Silva EMA, Ferreira JC, Rabeh WM. SARS-CoV-2 variants, its recombinants and epigenomic exploitation of host defenses. Biochim Biophys Acta Mol Basis Dis 2023; 1869:166836. [PMID: 37549720 DOI: 10.1016/j.bbadis.2023.166836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Revised: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 07/31/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
Since 2003, we have seen the emergence of novel viruses, such as SARS-CoV-1, MERS, ZIKA, swine flu virus H1N1, Marburg, Monkeypox, Ebola, and SARS-CoV-2, but none of them gained pandemic proportions similar to SARS-CoV-2. This could be attributed to unique viral traits, allowing its rapid global dissemination following its emergence in October 2019 in Wuhan, China, which appears to be primarily driven by the emergence of highly transmissible and virulent variants that also associate, in some cases, with severe disease and considerable mortality caused by fatal pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in infected individuals. Mechanistically, several factors are involved in viral pathogenesis, and epigenetic alterations take the front seat in host-virus interactions. The molecular basis of all viral infections, including SARS-CoV-2, tightly hinges on the transitory silencing of the host gene machinery via epigenetic modulation. SARS-CoV-2 also hijacks and subdues the host gene machinery, leading to epigenetic modulation of the critical host elements responsible for antiviral immunity. Epigenomics is a powerful, unexplored avenue that can provide a profound understanding of virus-host interactions and lead to the development of epigenome-based therapies and vaccines to counter viruses. This review discusses current developments in SARS-CoV-2 variation and its role in epigenetic modulation in infected hosts. This review provides an overview, especially in the context of emerging viral strains, their recombinants, and their possible roles in the epigenetic exploitation of host defense and viral pathogenesis. It provides insights into host-virus interactions at the molecular, genomic, and immunological levels and sheds light on the future of epigenomics-based therapies for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nitin K Saksena
- Victoria University, Footscray Campus, Melbourne, VIC. Australia.
| | - Srinivasa Bonam Reddy
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX 77555, USA
| | | | - Thyago H S Cardoso
- OMICS Centre of Excellence, G42 Healthcare, Mazdar City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
| | - Edson M A Silva
- Science Division, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Juliana C Ferreira
- Science Division, New York University Abu Dhabi, PO Box 129188, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
| | - Wael M Rabeh
- Science Division, New York University Abu Dhabi, PO Box 129188, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
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20
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Maguire C, Soloveichik E, Blinchevsky N, Miller J, Morrison R, Busch J, Brode WM, Wylie D, Rousseau J, Melamed E. Dissecting Clinical Features of COVID-19 in a Cohort of 21,312 Acute Care Patients. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.11.27.23297171. [PMID: 38076907 PMCID: PMC10705621 DOI: 10.1101/2023.11.27.23297171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
COVID-19 has resulted in over 645 million hospitalization and 7 million deaths globally. However, many questions still remain about clinical complications in COVID-19 and if these complications changed with different circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. We analyzed a 2.5-year retrospective cohort of 47,063 encounters for 21,312 acute care patients at five Central Texas hospitals and define distinct trajectory groups (TGs) with latent class mixed modeling, based on the World Health Organization COVID-19 Ordinal Scale. Using this TG framework, we evaluated the association of demographics, diagnoses, vitals, labs, imaging, consultations, and medications with COVID-19 severity and broad clinical outcomes. Patients within 6 distinct TGs differed in manifestations of multi-organ disease and multiple clinical factors. The proportion of mild patients increased over time, particularly during Omicron waves. Age separated mild and fatal patients, though did not distinguish patients with severe versus critical disease. Male and Hispanic/Latino demographics were associated with more severe/critical TGs. More severe patients had a higher rate of neuropsychiatric diagnoses, consultations, and brain imaging, which did not change significantly in severe patients across SARS-CoV-2 variant waves. More severely affected patients also demonstrated an immunological signature of high neutrophils and immature granulocytes, and low lymphocytes and monocytes. Interestingly, low albumin was one of the best lab predictors of COVID-19 severity in association with higher malnutrition in severe/critical patients, raising concern of nutritional insufficiency influencing COVID-19 outcomes. Despite this, only a small fraction of severe/critical patients had nutritional labs checked (pre-albumin, thiamine, Vitamin D, B vitamins) or received targeted interventions to address nutritional deficiencies such as vitamin replacement. Our findings underscore the significant link between COVID-19 severity, neuropsychiatric complications, and nutritional insufficiency as key risk factors of COVID-19 outcomes and raise the question of the need for more widespread early assessment of patients' neurological, psychiatric, and nutritional status in acute care settings to help identify those at risk of severe disease outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cole Maguire
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - Elie Soloveichik
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - Netta Blinchevsky
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - Jaimie Miller
- Enterprise Data Intelligence, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - Robert Morrison
- Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - Johanna Busch
- Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - W Michael Brode
- Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
| | - Dennis Wylie
- Center for Biomedical Support, The University of Texas at Austin
| | | | - Esther Melamed
- Department of Neurology, The University of Texas at Austin, Dell Medical School
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21
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Pingping Z, Yanyu Z, Xuri S, Qiming H, Yi W, Guoliang T. Comparison between original SARS-CoV-2 strain and omicron variant on thin-section chest CT imaging of COVID-19 pneumonia. RADIOLOGIE (HEIDELBERG, GERMANY) 2023; 63:55-63. [PMID: 37280418 PMCID: PMC10243278 DOI: 10.1007/s00117-023-01147-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We investigated different computed tomography (CT) features between Omicron-variant and original-strain SARS-CoV‑2 pneumonia to facilitate the clinical management. MATERIALS AND METHODS Medical records were retrospectively reviewed to select patients with original-strain SARS-CoV‑2 pneumonia from February 22 to April 22, 2020, or Omicron-variant SARS-CoV‑2 pneumonia from March 26 to May 31, 2022. Data on the demographics, comorbidities, symptoms, clinical types, and CT features were compared between the two groups. RESULTS There were 62 and 78 patients with original-strain or Omicron-variant SARS-CoV‑2 pneumonia, respectively. There were no differences between the two groups in terms of age, sex, clinical types, symptoms, and comorbidities. The main CT features differed between the two groups (p = 0.003). There were 37 (59.7%) and 20 (25.6%) patients with ground-glass opacities (GGO) in the original-strain and Omicron-variant pneumonia, respectively. A consolidation pattern was more frequently observed in the Omicron-variant than original-strain pneumonia (62.8% vs. 24.2%). There was no difference in crazy-paving pattern between the original-strain and Omicron-variant pneumonia (16.1% vs. 11.6%). Pleural effusion was observed more often in Omicron-variant pneumonia, while subpleural lesions were more common in the original-strain pneumonia. The CT score in the Omicron-variant group was higher than that in the original-strain group for critical-type (17.00, 16.00-18.00 vs. 16.00, 14.00-17.00, p = 0.031) and for severe-type (13.00, 12.00-14.00 vs 12.00, 10.75-13.00, p = 0.027) pneumonia. CONCLUSION The main CT finding of the Omicron-variant SARS-CoV‑2 pneumonia included consolidations and pleural effusion. By contrast, CT findings of original-strain SARS-CoV‑2 pneumonia showed frequent GGO and subpleural lesions, but without pleural effusion. The CT scores were also higher in the critical and severe types of Omicron-variant than original-strain pneumonia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeng Pingping
- Department ICU of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 34, Zhongshan North Road, Licheng District, Quanzhou City, Fujian, China
| | - Zhou Yanyu
- Department ICU of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 34, Zhongshan North Road, Licheng District, Quanzhou City, Fujian, China
| | - Sun Xuri
- Department ICU of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 34, Zhongshan North Road, Licheng District, Quanzhou City, Fujian, China
| | - Huang Qiming
- Department of Medical Imaging of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 34, Zhongshan North Road, Licheng District, Quanzhou City, Fujian, China
| | - Wang Yi
- Department of Medical Imaging of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 34, Zhongshan North Road, Licheng District, Quanzhou City, Fujian, China
| | - Tan Guoliang
- Department ICU of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 34, Zhongshan North Road, Licheng District, Quanzhou City, Fujian, China.
- Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan City, China.
- The Fourth People's Hospital of Shanghai, Shanghai City, China.
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22
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Baron-Franco B, Ollero-Baturone M, Ternero-Vega JE, Nieto-Martín MD, Moreno-Gaviño L, Conde-Guzmán C, Gutiérrez-Rivero S, Rincón-Gómez M, Díaz-Jiménez P, Muñoz-Lopez JJ, Giménez-Miranda L, Fernández-Nieto C, Bernabeu-Wittel M. Survival Impact of an On-Site Medicalization Program in the Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in 11 Nursing Homes. J Clin Med 2023; 12:6517. [PMID: 37892655 PMCID: PMC10607111 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12206517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Revised: 09/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The elderly admitted to nursing homes have especially suffered the havoc of the COVID-19 pandemic since most of them are not prepared to face such health problems. METHODS An innovative coordinated on-site medicalization program (MP) in response to a sizeable COVID-19 outbreak in three consecutive waves was deployed, sharing coordination and resources among primary care, the referral hospital, and the eleven residences. The objectives were providing the best possible medical care to residents in their environment, avoiding dehumanization and loneliness of hospital admission, and reducing the saturation of hospitals and the risk of spreading the infection. The main outcomes were a composite endpoint of survival or optimal palliative care (SOPC), survival, and referral to the hospital. RESULTS 587 of 1199 (49%) residents were infected, of whom 123 (21%) died. Patients diagnosed before the start of the MP presented SOPC, survival, and referrals to the hospital of 83%, 74%, and 22.4%, opposite to 96%, 84%, and 10.6% of patients diagnosed while the MP was set up. The SOPC was independently associated with an MP (OR 3.4 [1.6-7.2]). CONCLUSION During the COVID-19 outbreak, a coordinated MP successfully obtained a better rate of SOPC while simultaneously reducing the need for hospital admissions, combining optimal medical management with a more compassionate and humanistic approach in older people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bosco Baron-Franco
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | - Manuel Ollero-Baturone
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | | | | | - Lourdes Moreno-Gaviño
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | | | - Sonia Gutiérrez-Rivero
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | - Manuel Rincón-Gómez
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | - Pablo Díaz-Jiménez
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | - Juan José Muñoz-Lopez
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Alta Resolución de Utrera, 41710 Seville, Spain
| | - Luis Giménez-Miranda
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | - Celia Fernández-Nieto
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
| | - Máximo Bernabeu-Wittel
- Internal Medicine Department, University Hospital Virgen del Rocío, 41013 Seville, Spain
- Department of Medicine, University of Seville, 41004 Seville, Spain
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23
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Hu Z, Jin Z, Zhou M, Zhang C, Bao Y, Gao X, Wang G. CoronaVac and BBIBP-CorV vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 during predominant circulation of Omicron BA.5.2 and BF.7 in China, a retrospective cohort study. J Med Virol 2023; 95:e29143. [PMID: 37814963 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 09/19/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Pandemic of COVID-19 hit China at the end of 2022. According to China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Omicron BA.5.2 and BF.7 were the main circulating variants. Chinese people had a high COVID-19 vaccination rate, and the most widely used vaccines were CoronaVac (Sinovac) and BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm). An online questionnaire was distributed to survey the vaccination history and infection information of China mainland residents during this pandemic. A total of 4250 subjects were included for propensity score matching, 566 unvaccinated subjects and 1072 vaccinated subjects were finally included to analyze the effects of the two vaccines on BA.5.2 and BF.7. The SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was 84.5% in the vaccinated group and 82.3% in the unvaccinated group (p = 0.255). Vaccinated subjects had significantly higher rates of COVID-19-related symptoms, including fever, cough, nasal obstruction, runny nose, and sore throat. However, vaccinated people had lower risk of pneumonia (odds ratio [OR]: 0.467, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.286-0.762) and hospitalization (OR: 0.290, 95% CI: 0.097-0.870) due to COVID-19. In general, the current study did not observe the protective effect of CoronaVac and BBIBP CorV against BA.5.2 and BF.7 infection. However, these vaccines can still reduce the risk of adverse outcomes such as pneumonia and hospitalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhanwei Hu
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Zhou Jin
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Mengyun Zhou
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Chunbo Zhang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Yingcong Bao
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xinran Gao
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Guangfa Wang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
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24
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Casas-Rojo JM, Ventura PS, Antón Santos JM, de Latierro AO, Arévalo-Lorido JC, Mauri M, Rubio-Rivas M, González-Vega R, Giner-Galvañ V, Otero Perpiñá B, Fonseca-Aizpuru E, Muiño A, Del Corral-Beamonte E, Gómez-Huelgas R, Arnalich-Fernández F, Llorente Barrio M, Sancha-Lloret A, Rábago Lorite I, Loureiro-Amigo J, Pintos-Martínez S, García-Sardón E, Montaño-Martínez A, Rojano-Rivero MG, Ramos-Rincón JM, López-Escobar A. Improving prediction of COVID-19 mortality using machine learning in the Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 registry. Intern Emerg Med 2023; 18:1711-1722. [PMID: 37349618 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-023-03338-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 is responsible for high mortality, but robust machine learning-based predictors of mortality are lacking. To generate a model for predicting mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT). The Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 registry includes 24,514 pseudo-anonymized cases of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from 1 February 2020 to 5 December 2021. This registry was used as a GBDT machine learning model, employing the CatBoost and BorutaShap classifier to select the most relevant indicators and generate a mortality prediction model by risk level, ranging from 0 to 1. The model was validated by separating patients according to admission date, using the period 1 February to 31 December 2020 (first and second waves, pre-vaccination period) for training, and 1 January to 30 November 2021 (vaccination period) for the test group. An ensemble of ten models with different random seeds was constructed, separating 80% of the patients for training and 20% from the end of the training period for cross-validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used as a performance metric. Clinical and laboratory data from 23,983 patients were analyzed. CatBoost mortality prediction models achieved an AUC performance of 84.76 (standard deviation 0.45) for patients in the test group (potentially vaccinated patients not included in model training) using 16 features. The performance of the 16-parameter GBDT model for predicting COVID-19 hospital mortality, although requiring a relatively large number of predictors, shows a high predictive capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- José-Manuel Casas-Rojo
- Internal Medicine Department, Infanta Cristina University Hospital, Parla, 28981, Madrid, Spain
| | - Paula Sol Ventura
- Department of Pediatric Endocrinology, Hospital HM Nens, HM Hospitales, 08009, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Marc Mauri
- Data Scientist, Kaizen AI, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Manuel Rubio-Rivas
- Internal Medicine Department, Bellvitge University Hospital, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rocío González-Vega
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Costa del Sol, Marbella, Málaga, Spain
| | - Vicente Giner-Galvañ
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario San Juan. San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain
| | | | - Eva Fonseca-Aizpuru
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario de Cabueñes, Gijón, Asturias, Spain
| | - Antonio Muiño
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Ricardo Gómez-Huelgas
- Internal Medicine Department, Regional University Hospital of Málaga, Biomedical Research Institute of Málaga (IBIMA), University of Málaga (UMA), Málaga, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Isabel Rábago Lorite
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario Infanta Sofía. San Sebastián de los Reyes, Madrid, Spain
| | - José Loureiro-Amigo
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Moisès Broggi, Sant Joan Despí, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Santiago Pintos-Martínez
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario de Sagunto, Puerto de Sagunto, Valencia, Spain
| | - Eva García-Sardón
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Universitario de Cáceres, Cáceres, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Alejandro López-Escobar
- Pediatrics Department, Clinical Research Unit, Hospital Universitario Vithas Madrid La Milagrosa, Fundación Vithas, Madrid, Spain.
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25
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Menez S, Coca SG, Moledina DG, Wen Y, Chan L, Thiessen-Philbrook H, Obeid W, Garibaldi BT, Azeloglu EU, Ugwuowo U, Sperati CJ, Arend LJ, Rosenberg AZ, Kaushal M, Jain S, Wilson FP, Parikh CR. Evaluation of Plasma Biomarkers to Predict Major Adverse Kidney Events in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19. Am J Kidney Dis 2023; 82:322-332.e1. [PMID: 37263570 PMCID: PMC10229201 DOI: 10.1053/j.ajkd.2023.03.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are at increased risk for major adverse kidney events (MAKE). We sought to identify plasma biomarkers predictive of MAKE in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS A total of 576 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between March 2020 and January 2021 across 3 academic medical centers. EXPOSURE Twenty-six plasma biomarkers of injury, inflammation, and repair from first available blood samples collected during hospitalization. OUTCOME MAKE, defined as KDIGO stage 3 acute kidney injury (AKI), dialysis-requiring AKI, or mortality up to 60 days. ANALYTICAL APPROACH Cox proportional hazards regression to associate biomarker level with MAKE. We additionally applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest regression for prediction modeling and estimated model discrimination with time-varying C index. RESULTS The median length of stay for COVID-19 hospitalization was 9 (IQR, 5-16) days. In total, 95 patients (16%) experienced MAKE. Each 1 SD increase in soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of MAKE (adjusted HR [AHR], 2.30 [95% CI, 1.86-2.85], and AHR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.73-2.95], respectively). The C index of sTNFR1 alone was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84), and the C index of sTNFR2 was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.84). LASSO and random forest regression modeling using all biomarkers yielded C indexes of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78-0.91), respectively. LIMITATIONS No control group of hospitalized patients without COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS We found that sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are independently associated with MAKE in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and can both also serve as predictors for adverse kidney outcomes. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are at increased risk for long-term adverse health outcomes, but not all patients suffer long-term kidney dysfunction. Identification of patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for adverse kidney events may have important implications in terms of nephrology follow-up and patient counseling. In this study, we found that the plasma biomarkers soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 measured in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were associated with a greater risk of adverse kidney outcomes. Along with clinical variables previously shown to predict adverse kidney events in patients with COVID-19, both sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are also strong predictors of adverse kidney outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven Menez
- Division of Nephrology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Steven G Coca
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Dennis G Moledina
- Section of Nephrology and Clinical and Translational Research Accelerator, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Yumeng Wen
- Division of Nephrology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Lili Chan
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | | | - Wassim Obeid
- Division of Nephrology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Brian T Garibaldi
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Evren U Azeloglu
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | - Ugochukwu Ugwuowo
- Section of Nephrology and Clinical and Translational Research Accelerator, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - C John Sperati
- Division of Nephrology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Lois J Arend
- Department of Medicine, and Division of Renal Pathology, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Avi Z Rosenberg
- Department of Medicine, and Division of Renal Pathology, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Madhurima Kaushal
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - Sanjay Jain
- Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri; Department of Pathology and Immunology, School of Medicine, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri
| | - F Perry Wilson
- Section of Nephrology and Clinical and Translational Research Accelerator, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Chirag R Parikh
- Division of Nephrology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland.
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Sahu DP, Singh AK, Mishra B, Behera B, Patro BK, Kunjanpillai JS, Nair J, Panigrahi MK, Mohanty MK, Behera P, Mohapatra PR, Barik S, Mohanty S, Sahu S, Singh SR, Tripathy S. Health system factors related to COVID-19 mortality in Eastern India: Hospital-based cross-sectional study. J Family Med Prim Care 2023; 12:1331-1335. [PMID: 37649740 PMCID: PMC10465061 DOI: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1956_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has left footprints across all ages and socio-economic strata. The deaths because of COVID-19 are usually multi-factorial. The study aimed to assess the health system factors related to COVID-19-related deaths. Materials and Methods A hospital-based retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital of eastern India. A total of 272 COVID-19 deaths that occurred between April and November 2020 were investigated. Data were extracted from Medical Record Department, and telephonic interviews were conducted to assess the different delays related to death. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Travel time, travel distance, delay in testing, and delay in receiving quality care were presented as median with inter-quartile range. Results Complete information could be collected from 243 COVID deaths of the 272 deaths (89.3%). The duration of hospital stay was 1-7 days for 42% of the deceased. The median travel time was 120 min, and the median distance travelled was 60 km. The median time to receive first attention of health care workers was 10 minutes. There was hardly any delay in reporting of test results, whereas the median time from symptoms to test and the median time from symptoms to admission were 4 days each. Conclusion Health system factors related to death of COVID-19 need to be addressed to avoid the avoidable deaths during the pandemic situation. The resilience of the health system can be helpful in reducing death toll in a low-resource country like India.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dinesh Prasad Sahu
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Arvind Kumar Singh
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Baijayantimala Mishra
- Department of Microbiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Bijayini Behera
- Department of Microbiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Binod Kumar Patro
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | | | - Jyolsna Nair
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Manoj Kumar Panigrahi
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine and Critical Care, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Manoj Kumar Mohanty
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Priyamadhaba Behera
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Prasanta Raghav Mohapatra
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine and Critical Care, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Sadananda Barik
- Department of Trauma and Emergency Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Sachidanand Mohanty
- Medical Superintendent, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Subhakanta Sahu
- Department of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Sudipta Ranjan Singh
- Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Swagata Tripathy
- Department of Anaesthesiology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
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Cortés P, Travers P, Zeng JJ, Ball CT, Lynch SA, Gómez V. Metabolic Unhealthiness is Associated With Increased Risk of Critical COVID-19 Pneumonia and Inpatient Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Obesity or Overweight. Cureus 2023; 15:e42205. [PMID: 37602105 PMCID: PMC10439786 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.42205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 08/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Background and aims Being metabolically unhealthy (MU) is defined as having either hypertension, hyperlipidemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus/pre-diabetes, or fatty liver disease. We aimed to determine if MU was associated with severe COVID-19 pneumonia (severe disease). Methods We performed a single-center retrospective study between March 2020 and August 2021 for patients with overweight or obesity hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to derive a risk score for severe disease. The accuracy of the model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) and bootstrap resampling. Results A total of 334 of 450 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia (74.2%) were MU. Patients who were MU had higher in-hospital mortality (10.5% vs. 2.6%) and longer length of hospitalization (median 6 vs. 4 days). MU was not associated with severe disease, p=0.311. On multivariable analysis, older age, male sex, and Asian race were associated with severe disease. Not being vaccinated was associated with doubled odds of severe disease. The AUROCC of the final model was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.60 to 0.71). The risk score at the lowest quintile had a 33.1% to 65.5% predicted risk and a 58.7% observed risk of severe disease, whereas, at the highest quintile, there was an 85.7% to 97.7% predicted risk and an 89.7% observed risk of severe disease. Conclusion Being MU was not a predictor of severe disease, even though mortality was higher despite having higher rates of vaccination. This risk score may help to predict severe disease in hospitalized patients with obesity or overweight. External validation is recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pedro Cortés
- Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, USA
| | - Paul Travers
- Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, USA
| | - Jennifer J Zeng
- Neuroscience, Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA
| | - Colleen T Ball
- Clinical Trials and Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, USA
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28
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Robinson ML, Morris CP, Betz JF, Zhang Y, Bollinger R, Wang N, Thiemann DR, Fall A, Eldesouki RE, Norton JM, Gaston DC, Forman M, Luo CH, Zeger SL, Gupta A, Garibaldi BT, Mostafa HH. Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants on Inpatient Clinical Outcome. Clin Infect Dis 2023; 76:1539-1549. [PMID: 36528815 PMCID: PMC10411930 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2022] [Revised: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 12/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prior observation has shown differences in COVID-19 hospitalization risk between SARS-CoV-2 variants, but limited information describes hospitalization outcomes. METHODS Inpatients with COVID-19 at 5 hospitals in the eastern United States were included if they had hypoxia, tachypnea, tachycardia, or fever, and SARS-CoV-2 variant data, determined from whole-genome sequencing or local surveillance inference. Analyses were stratified by history of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or infection. The average effect of SARS-CoV-2 variant on 28-day risk of severe disease, defined by advanced respiratory support needs, or death was evaluated using models weighted on propensity scores derived from baseline clinical features. RESULTS Severe disease or death within 28 days occurred for 977 (29%) of 3369 unvaccinated patients and 269 (22%) of 1230 patients with history of vaccination or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among unvaccinated patients, the relative risk of severe disease or death for Delta variant compared with ancestral lineages was 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-1.49). Compared with Delta, the risk for Omicron patients was .72 (95% CI: .59-.88) and compared with ancestral lineages was .94 (.78-1.1). Among Omicron and Delta infections, patients with history of vaccination or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection had half the risk of severe disease or death (adjusted hazard ratio: .40; 95% CI: .30-.54), but no significant outcome difference by variant. CONCLUSIONS Although risk of severe disease or death for unvaccinated inpatients with Omicron was lower than with Delta, it was similar to ancestral lineages. Severe outcomes were less common in vaccinated inpatients, with no difference between Delta and Omicron infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew L Robinson
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - C Paul Morris
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Joshua F Betz
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Yifan Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Robert Bollinger
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Natalie Wang
- Krieger School of Arts & Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - David R Thiemann
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Amary Fall
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Raghda E Eldesouki
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Julie M Norton
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - David C Gaston
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Michael Forman
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Chun Huai Luo
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Scott L Zeger
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Amita Gupta
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Brian T Garibaldi
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Heba H Mostafa
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Prasad PA, Correia J, Fang MC, Fisher A, Correll M, Oreper S, Auerbach A. Performance of point-of-care severity scores to predict prognosis in patients admitted through the emergency department with COVID-19. J Hosp Med 2023; 18:413-423. [PMID: 37057912 PMCID: PMC11344580 DOI: 10.1002/jhm.13106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/31/2023] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying COVID-19 patients at the highest risk of poor outcomes is critical in emergency department (ED) presentation. Sepsis risk stratification scores can be calculated quickly for COVID-19 patients but have not been evaluated in a large cohort. OBJECTIVE To determine whether well-known risk scores can predict poor outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. DESIGNS, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS A retrospective cohort study of adults presenting with COVID-19 to 156 Hospital Corporation of America (HCA) Healthcare EDs, March 2, 2020, to February 11, 2021. INTERVENTION Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Shock Index, National Early Warning System-2 (NEWS2), and quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) at presentation. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressors receipt. Patients scored positive with qSOFA ≥ 2, Shock Index > 0.7, NEWS2 ≥ 5, and qCSI ≥ 4. Test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) were calculated. RESULTS We identified 90,376 patients with community-acquired COVID-19 (mean age 64.3 years, 46.8% female). 17.2% of patients died in-hospital, 28.6% went to the ICU, 13.7% received mechanical ventilation, and 13.6% received vasopressors. There were 3.8% qSOFA-positive, 45.1% Shock Index-positive, 49.8% NEWS2-positive, and 37.6% qCSI-positive at ED-triage. NEWS2 exhibited the highest AUROC for in-hospital mortality (0.593, confidence interval [CI]: 0.588-0.597), ICU admission (0.602, CI: 0.599-0.606), mechanical ventilation (0.614, CI: 0.610-0.619), and vasopressor receipt (0.600, CI: 0.595-0.604). CONCLUSIONS Sepsis severity scores at presentation have low discriminative power to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients and are not reliable for clinical use. Severity scores should be developed using features that accurately predict poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients to develop more effective risk-based triage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priya A. Prasad
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Jessica Correia
- HCA Healthcare, Sarah Cannon, USA, 1100 Dr. Martin L. King Jr. Blvd., Suite 800, Nashville, TN 37203
| | - Margaret C. Fang
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Arielle Fisher
- HCA Healthcare, Sarah Cannon, USA, 1100 Dr. Martin L. King Jr. Blvd., Suite 800, Nashville, TN 37203
| | - Mick Correll
- HCA Healthcare, Sarah Cannon, USA, 1100 Dr. Martin L. King Jr. Blvd., Suite 800, Nashville, TN 37203
| | - Sandra Oreper
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Andrew Auerbach
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
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30
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Kartsonaki C, Baillie JK, Barrio NG, Baruch J, Beane A, Blumberg L, Bozza F, Broadley T, Burrell A, Carson G, Citarella BW, Dagens A, Dankwa EA, Donnelly CA, Dunning J, Elotmani L, Escher M, Farshait N, Goffard JC, Gonçalves BP, Hall M, Hashmi M, Sim Lim Heng B, Ho A, Jassat W, Pedrera Jiménez M, Laouenan C, Lissauer S, Martin-Loeches I, Mentré F, Merson L, Morton B, Munblit D, Nekliudov NA, Nichol AD, Singh Oinam BC, Ong D, Panda PK, Petrovic M, Pritchard MG, Ramakrishnan N, Ramos GV, Roger C, Sandulescu O, Semple MG, Sharma P, Sigfrid L, Somers EC, Streinu-Cercel A, Taccone F, Vecham PK, Kumar Tirupakuzhi Vijayaraghavan B, Wei J, Wils EJ, Ci Wong X, Horby P, Rojek A, Olliaro PL, ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, Abbas A, Abdukahil SA, Abdulkadir NN, Abe R, Abel L, Absil L, Acharya S, Acker A, Adam E, Adrião D, Al Ageel S, Ahmed S, Ainscough K, Airlangga E, Aisa T, Hssain AA, Tamlihat YA, Akimoto T, Akmal E, Al Qasim E, Alalqam R, Alberti A, Al-dabbous T, Alegesan S, Alegre C, Alessi M, Alex B, Alexandre K, Al-Fares A, Alfoudri H, Ali I, Ali A, Shah NA, Alidjnou KE, Aliudin J, Alkhafajee Q, Allavena C, Allou N, Altaf A, Alves J, Alves R, et alKartsonaki C, Baillie JK, Barrio NG, Baruch J, Beane A, Blumberg L, Bozza F, Broadley T, Burrell A, Carson G, Citarella BW, Dagens A, Dankwa EA, Donnelly CA, Dunning J, Elotmani L, Escher M, Farshait N, Goffard JC, Gonçalves BP, Hall M, Hashmi M, Sim Lim Heng B, Ho A, Jassat W, Pedrera Jiménez M, Laouenan C, Lissauer S, Martin-Loeches I, Mentré F, Merson L, Morton B, Munblit D, Nekliudov NA, Nichol AD, Singh Oinam BC, Ong D, Panda PK, Petrovic M, Pritchard MG, Ramakrishnan N, Ramos GV, Roger C, Sandulescu O, Semple MG, Sharma P, Sigfrid L, Somers EC, Streinu-Cercel A, Taccone F, Vecham PK, Kumar Tirupakuzhi Vijayaraghavan B, Wei J, Wils EJ, Ci Wong X, Horby P, Rojek A, Olliaro PL, ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, Abbas A, Abdukahil SA, Abdulkadir NN, Abe R, Abel L, Absil L, Acharya S, Acker A, Adam E, Adrião D, Al Ageel S, Ahmed S, Ainscough K, Airlangga E, Aisa T, Hssain AA, Tamlihat YA, Akimoto T, Akmal E, Al Qasim E, Alalqam R, Alberti A, Al-dabbous T, Alegesan S, Alegre C, Alessi M, Alex B, Alexandre K, Al-Fares A, Alfoudri H, Ali I, Ali A, Shah NA, Alidjnou KE, Aliudin J, Alkhafajee Q, Allavena C, Allou N, Altaf A, Alves J, Alves R, Alves JM, Amaral M, Amira N, Ampaw P, Andini R, Andréjak C, Angheben A, Angoulvant F, Ansart S, Anthonidass S, Antonelli M, de Brito CAA, Apriyana A, Arabi Y, Aragao I, Arancibia F, Araujo C, Arcadipane A, Archambault P, Arenz L, Arlet JB, Arnold-Day C, Arora L, Arora R, Artaud-Macari E, Aryal D, Asensio A, Ashraf M, Asif N, Asim M, Assie JB, Asyraf A, Atique A, Attanyake AMUL, Auchabie J, Aumaitre H, Auvet A, Azemar L, Azoulay C, Bach B, Bachelet D, Badr C, Baig N, Baird JK, Bak E, Bakakos A, Bakar NA, Bal A, Balakrishnan M, Balan V, Bani-Sadr F, Barbalho R, Barbosa NY, Barclay WS, Barnett SU, Barnikel M, Barrasa H, Barrelet A, Barrigoto C, Bartoli M, Bashir M, Basmaci R, Basri MFH, Battaglini D, Bauer J, Rincon DFB, Dow DB, Bedossa A, Bee KH, Begum H, Behilill S, Beishuizen A, Beljantsev A, Bellemare D, Beltrame A, Beltrão BA, Beluze M, Benech N, Benjiman LE, Benkerrou D, Bennett S, Bento L, Berdal JE, Bergeaud D, Bergin H, Sobrino JLB, Bertoli G, Bertolino L, Bessis S, Bevilcaqua S, Bezulier K, Bhatt A, Bhavsar K, Bianco C, Bidin FN, Singh MB, Humaid FB, Kamarudin MNB, Bissuel F, Biston P, Bitker L, Bitton J, Blanco-Schweizer P, Blier C, Bloos F, Blot M, Boccia F, Bodenes L, Bogaarts A, Bogaert D, Boivin AH, Bolze PA, Bompart F, Bonfasius A, Borges D, Borie R, Bosse HM, Botelho-Nevers E, Bouadma L, Bouchaud O, Bouchez S, Bouhmani D, Bouhour D, Bouiller K, Bouillet L, Bouisse C, Boureau AS, Bourke J, Bouscambert M, Bousquet A, Bouziotis J, Boxma B, Boyer-Besseyre M, Boylan M, Braconnier A, Braga C, Brandenburger T, Monteiro FB, Brazzi L, Breen P, Breen D, Breen P, Brickell K, Browne S, Browne A, Brozzi N, Brusse-Keizer M, Buchtele N, Buesaquillo C, Bugaeva P, Buisson M, Buonsenso D, Burhan E, Bustos IG, Butnaru D, Cabie A, Cabral S, Caceres E, Cadoz C, Callahan M, Calligy K, Calvache JA, Camões J, Campana V, Campbell P, Campisi J, Canepa C, Cantero M, Caraux-Paz P, Cárcel S, Cardellino CS, Cardoso S, Cardoso F, Cardoso F, Cardoso N, Carelli S, Carlier N, Carmoi T, Carney G, Carqueja I, Carret MC, Carrier FM, Carroll I, Casanova ML, Cascão M, Casey S, Casimiro J, Cassandra B, Castañeda S, Castanheira N, Castor-Alexandre G, Castrillón H, Castro I, Catarino A, Catherine FX, Cattaneo P, Cavalin R, Cavalli GG, Cavayas A, Ceccato A, Cervantes-Gonzalez M, Chair A, Chakveatze C, Chan A, Chand M, Auger CC, Chapplain JM, Chas J, Chatterjee A, Chaudry M, Iñiguez JSC, Chen A, Chen YS, Cheng MP, Cheret A, Chiarabini T, Chica J, Chidambaram SK, Tho LC, Chirouze C, Chiumello D, Cho SM, Cholley B, Chopin MC, Chow TS, Chow YP, Chua HJ, Chua J, Cidade JP, Herreros JMC, Ciullo A, Clarke J, Clarke E, Granado RCD, Clohisey S, Cobb PJ, Codan C, Cody C, Coelho A, Coles M, Colin G, Collins M, Colombo SM, Combs P, Connor M, Conrad A, Contreras S, Conway E, Cooke GS, Copland M, Cordel H, Corley A, Cornelis S, Cornet AD, Corpuz AJ, Cortegiani A, Corvaisier G, Costigan E, Couffignal C, Couffin-Cadiergues S, Courtois R, Cousse S, Cregan R, D'Orleans CC, Cristella C, Croonen S, Crowl G, Crump J, Cruz C, Berm JLC, Rojo JC, Csete M, Cullen A, Cummings M, Curley G, Curlier E, Curran C, Custodio P, Filipe ADS, Da Silveira C, Dabaliz AA, Dahly D, Dalton H, Dalton J, Daly S, Daneman N, Daniel C, Dantas J, D'Aragon F, de Jong M, de Loughry G, de Mendoza D, De Montmollin E, de Oliveira França RF, de Pinho Oliveira AI, De Rosa R, De Rose C, de Silva T, de Vries P, Deacon J, Dean D, Debard A, Debray MP, DeCastro N, Dechert W, Deconninck L, Decours R, Defous E, Delacroix I, Delaveuve E, Delavigne K, Delfos NM, Deligiannis I, Dell'Amore A, Delmas C, Delobel P, Delsing C, Demonchy E, Denis E, Deplanque D, Depuydt P, Desai M, Descamps D, Desvallées M, Dewayanti S, Dhanger P, Diallo A, Diamantis S, Dias A, Diaz JJ, Diaz P, Diaz R, Didier K, Diehl JL, Dieperink W, Dimet J, Dinot V, Diop F, Diouf A, Dishon Y, Djossou F, Docherty AB, Doherty H, Dondorp AM, Dong A, Donnelly M, Donohue S, Donohue Y, Donohue C, Doran P, Dorival C, D'Ortenzio E, Douglas JJ, Douma R, Dournon N, Downer T, Downey J, Downing M, Drake T, Driscoll A, Dryden M, Dryden M, Fonseca CD, Dubee V, Dubos F, Ducancelle A, Duculan T, Dudman S, Duggal A, Dunand P, Duplaix M, Durante-Mangoni E, Durham L, Dussol B, Duthoit J, Duval X, Dyrhol-Riise AM, Ean SC, Echeverria-Villalobos M, Egan S, Eira C, El Sanharawi M, Elapavaluru S, Elharrar B, Ellerbroek J, Eloy P, Elshazly T, Elyazar I, Enderle I, Endo T, Eng CC, Engelmann I, Enouf V, Epaulard O, Esperatti M, Esperou H, Esposito-Farese M, Estevão J, Etienne M, Ettalhaoui N, Everding AG, Evers M, Fabre M, Fabre I, Faheem A, Fahy A, Fairfield CJ, Fakar Z, Fareed K, Faria P, Farooq A, Fateena H, Fatoni AZ, Faure K, Favory R, Fayed M, Feely N, Feeney L, Fernandes J, Fernandes MA, Fernandes S, Ferrand FX, Devouge EF, Ferrão J, Ferraz M, Ferreira S, Ferreira I, Ferreira B, Ferrer-Roca R, Ferriere N, Ficko C, Figueiredo-Mello C, Finlayson W, Fiorda J, Flament T, Flateau C, Fletcher T, Florio LL, Flynn D, Foley C, Foley J, Fomin V, Fonseca T, Fontela P, Forsyth S, Foster D, Foti G, Fourn E, Fowler RA, Fraher M, Franch-Llasat D, Fraser JF, Fraser C, Freire MV, Ribeiro AF, Friedrich C, Fritz R, Fry S, Fuentes N, Fukuda M, Argin G, Gaborieau V, Gaci R, Gagliardi M, Gagnard JC, Gagneux-Brunon A, Gaião S, Skeie LG, Gallagher P, Gamble C, Gani Y, Garan A, Garcia R, Garcia-Diaz J, Garcia-Gallo E, Garimella N, Garot D, Garrait V, Gauli B, Gault N, Gavin A, Gavrylov A, Gaymard A, Gebauer J, Geraud E, Morlaes LG, Germano N, ghisulal PK, Ghosn J, Giani M, Gibson J, Gigante T, Gilg M, Gilroy E, Giordano G, Girvan M, Gissot V, Glikman D, Glybochko P, Gnall E, Goco G, Goehringer F, Goepel S, Goh JY, Golob J, Gomes R, Gomez K, Gómez-Junyent J, Gominet M, Gonzalez A, Gordon P, Gorenne I, Goubert L, Goujard C, Goulenok T, Grable M, Graf J, Grandin EW, Granier P, Grasselli G, Green CA, Greene C, Greenhalf W, Greffe S, Grieco DL, Griffee M, Griffiths F, Grigoras I, Groenendijk A, Lordemann AG, Gruner H, Gu Y, Guedj J, Guego M, Guellec D, Guerguerian AM, Guerreiro D, Guery R, Guillaumot A, Guilleminault L, de Castro MG, Guimard T, Haalboom M, Haber D, Habraken H, Hachemi A, Hackmann A, Hadri N, Haidri F, Hakak S, Hall A, Halpin S, Hameed J, Hamer A, Hamers RL, Hamidfar R, Hammond T, Han LY, Haniffa R, Hao KW, Hardwick H, Harrison EM, Harrison J, Harrison SBE, Hartman A, Hasan MS, Hashmi J, Hayat M, Hayes A, Hays L, Heerman J, Heggelund L, Hendry R, Hennessy M, Henriquez-Trujillo A, Hentzien M, Hernandez-Montfort J, Hershey A, Hesstvedt L, Hidayah A, Higgins E, Higgins D, Higgins R, Hinchion R, Hinton S, Hiraiwa H, Hirkani H, Hitoto H, Ho YB, Hoctin A, Hoffmann I, Hoh WH, Hoiting O, Holt R, Holter JC, 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Vickers J, Vidal JE, Vieira C, Vijayan D, Villanueva JA, Villar J, Villeneuve PM, Villoldo A, Vishwanathan G, Visseaux B, Visser H, Vitiello C, Vonkeman H, Vuotto F, Wahab SA, Wahab NH, Wahid NA, Wainstein M, Shukeri WFWM, Wang CH, Webb S, Weil K, Wen TP, Wesselius S, West TE, Wham M, Whelan B, White N, Wicky PH, Wiedemann A, Wijaya SO, Wille K, Willems S, Williams V, Wong C, Wong YS, Wong TF, Wright N, Xian GE, Xian LS, Xuan KP, Xynogalas I, Yakop SRBM, Yamazaki M, Yazdanpanah Y, Hing NYL, Yelnik C, Yeoh CH, Yerkovich S, Yokoyama T, Yonis H, Yousif O, Yuliarto S, Zaaqoq A, Zabbe M, Zacharowski K, Zahid M, Zahran M, Zaidan NZB, Zambon M, Zambrano M, Zanella A, Zawadka K, Zaynah N, Zayyad H, Zoufaly A, Zucman D. Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Int J Epidemiol 2023; 52:355-376. [DOI: https:/doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyad012] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2025] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world's largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients.
Methods
The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV).
Results
Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60 years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%.
Conclusions
Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ∼30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups; each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death. The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christiana Kartsonaki
- Medical Research Council (MRC) Population Health Research Unit, Clinical Trials Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - J Kenneth Baillie
- Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UK
- Intensive Care Unit, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Joaquín Baruch
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | | | - Lucille Blumberg
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases , Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Fernando Bozza
- National Institute of Infectious Disease Evandro Chagas, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (INI-FIOCRUZ), Ministry of Health, and D'Or Institute of Research and Education (IDOR) , Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | - Gail Carson
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Barbara Wanjiru Citarella
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Andrew Dagens
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | | | - Christl A Donnelly
- Department of Statistics, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London , London, UK
| | - Jake Dunning
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | | | - Martina Escher
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | | | | | - Bronner P Gonçalves
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Matthew Hall
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Madiha Hashmi
- Critical Care Asia and Ziauddin University , Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Antonia Ho
- Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK Department of Infectious Diseases, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital , Glasgow, UK
| | - Waasila Jassat
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases , Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Cedric Laouenan
- Un , Paris, France
- iversité de Paris, France, Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution (IAME), INSERM , Paris, France
| | | | | | - France Mentré
- Un , Paris, France
- iversité de Paris, France, Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution (IAME), INSERM , Paris, France
| | - Laura Merson
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
- Infectious Diseases Data Observatory, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Ben Morton
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine , Liverpool, UK
| | - Daniel Munblit
- Department of Paediatrics and Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Child’s Health, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University) , Moscow, Russia
- Inflammation, Repair and Development Section, National Heart and Lung Institute, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London , London, UK
| | | | - Alistair D Nichol
- Irish Critical Care Critical Clinical Trials Network , Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - David Ong
- Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland , Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | | | | | - Mark G Pritchard
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | | | - Grazielle Viana Ramos
- National Institute of Infectious Disease Evandro Chagas, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (INI-FIOCRUZ), Ministry of Health, and D'Or Institute of Research and Education (IDOR) , Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Oana Sandulescu
- Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy , Bucharest, Romania
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases ‘Prof. Dr. Matei Bals’ , Bucharest, Romania
| | - Malcolm G Semple
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool , Liverpool, UK
- UK Respiratory Medicine, Alder Hey Children’s NHS Foundation Trust , Liverpool, UK
| | - Pratima Sharma
- University of Michigan Schools of Medicine & Public Health , Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Louise Sigfrid
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Emily C Somers
- University of Michigan Schools of Medicine & Public Health , Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | | | - Fabio Taccone
- Cliniques Universitaires de Bruxelles (CUB) Hopital Erasme , Anderlecht, Belgium
| | | | | | - Jia Wei
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Evert-Jan Wils
- Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland , Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Xin Ci Wong
- National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health , Shah Alam, Malaysia
| | - Peter Horby
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
| | - Amanda Rojek
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
- Royal Melbourne Hospital , Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Integrated Critical Care, University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Australia
| | - Piero L Olliaro
- International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) Global Support Centre, Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
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The association of clinically relevant variables with chest radiograph lung disease burden quantified in real-time by radiologists upon initial presentation in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19. Clin Imaging 2023. [PMID: 37301052 PMCID: PMC10014481 DOI: 10.1016/j.clinimag.2023.03.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/17/2023]
Abstract
Objectives We aimed to correlate lung disease burden on presentation chest radiographs (CXR), quantified at the time of study interpretation, with clinical presentation in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Material and methods This retrospective cross-sectional study included 5833 consecutive adult patients, aged 18 and older, hospitalized with a diagnosis of COVID-19 with a CXR quantified in real-time while hospitalized in 1 of 12 acute care hospitals across a multihospital integrated healthcare network between March 24, 2020, and May 22, 2020. Lung disease burden was quantified in real-time by 118 radiologists on 5833 CXR at the time of exam interpretation with each lung annotated by the degree of lung opacity as clear (0%), mild (1–33%), moderate (34–66%), or severe (67–100%). CXR findings were classified as (1) clear versus disease, (2) unilateral versus bilateral, (3) symmetric versus asymmetric, or (4) not severe versus severe. Lung disease burden was characterized on initial presentation by patient demographics, co-morbidities, vital signs, and lab results with chi-square used for univariate analysis and logistic regression for multivariable analysis. Results Patients with severe lung disease were more likely to have oxygen impairment, an elevated respiratory rate, low albumin, high lactate dehydrogenase, and high ferritin compared to non-severe lung disease. A lack of opacities in COVID-19 was associated with a low estimated glomerular filtration rate, hypernatremia, and hypoglycemia. Conclusions COVID-19 lung disease burden quantified in real-time on presentation CXR was characterized by demographics, comorbidities, emergency severity index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, vital signs, and lab results on 5833 patients. This novel approach to real-time quantified chest radiograph lung disease burden by radiologists needs further research to understand how this information can be incorporated to improve clinical care for pulmonary-related diseases.. An absence of opacities in COVID-19 may be associated with poor oral intake and a prerenal state as evidenced by the association of clear CXRs with a low eGFR, hypernatremia, and hypoglycemia.
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Kwok SWH, Wang G, Sohel F, Kashani KB, Zhu Y, Wang Z, Antpack E, Khandelwal K, Pagali SR, Nanda S, Abdalrhim AD, Sharma UM, Bhagra S, Dugani S, Takahashi PY, Murad MH, Yousufuddin M. An artificial intelligence approach for predicting death or organ failure after hospitalization for COVID-19: development of a novel risk prediction tool and comparisons with ISARIC-4C, CURB-65, qSOFA, and MEWS scoring systems. Respir Res 2023; 24:79. [PMID: 36915107 PMCID: PMC10010216 DOI: 10.1186/s12931-023-02386-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We applied machine learning (ML) algorithms to generate a risk prediction tool [Collaboration for Risk Evaluation in COVID-19 (CORE-COVID-19)] for predicting the composite of 30-day endotracheal intubation, intravenous administration of vasopressors, or death after COVID-19 hospitalization and compared it with the existing risk scores. METHODS This is a retrospective study of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 from March 2020 to February 2021. Patients, each with 92 variables, and one composite outcome underwent feature selection process to identify the most predictive variables. Selected variables were modeled to build four ML algorithms (artificial neural network, support vector machine, gradient boosting machine, and Logistic regression) and an ensemble model to generate a CORE-COVID-19 model to predict the composite outcome and compared with existing risk prediction scores. The net benefit for clinical use of each model was assessed by decision curve analysis. RESULTS Of 1796 patients, 278 (15%) patients reached primary outcome. Six most predictive features were identified. Four ML algorithms achieved comparable discrimination (P > 0.827) with c-statistics ranged 0.849-0.856, calibration slopes 0.911-1.173, and Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.141 in validation dataset. These 6-variable fitted CORE-COVID-19 model revealed a c-statistic of 0.880, which was significantly (P < 0.04) higher than ISARIC-4C (0.751), CURB-65 (0.735), qSOFA (0.676), and MEWS (0.674) for outcome prediction. The net benefit of the CORE-COVID-19 model was greater than that of the existing risk scores. CONCLUSION The CORE-COVID-19 model accurately assigned 88% of patients who potentially progressed to 30-day composite events and revealed improved performance over existing risk scores, indicating its potential utility in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Guanjin Wang
- Department of Information Technology, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Australia
| | - Ferdous Sohel
- Department of Information Technology, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Australia
| | | | - Ye Zhu
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Centre for the Science of Healthcare Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | - Zhen Wang
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Centre for the Science of Healthcare Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | - Eduardo Antpack
- Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic Health System, Austin, MN USA
| | | | - Sandeep R. Pagali
- Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | - Sanjeev Nanda
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | | | - Umesh M. Sharma
- Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ USA
| | - Sumit Bhagra
- Department of Endocrine and Metabolism, Mayo Clinic Health System, Austin, MN USA
| | - Sagar Dugani
- Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | - Paul Y. Takahashi
- Division of Community Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | - Mohammad H. Murad
- Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Centre for the Science of Healthcare Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
- Division of Preventive Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
| | - Mohammed Yousufuddin
- Division of Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN USA
- Hospital Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic Health System, Mayo Clinic, 1000 1st Drive NW, Austin, MN USA
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Raman G, Ashraf B, Demir YK, Kershaw CD, Cheruku S, Atis M, Atis A, Atar M, Chen W, Ibrahim I, Bat T, Mete M. Machine learning prediction for COVID-19 disease severity at hospital admission. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2023; 23:46. [PMID: 36882829 PMCID: PMC9990559 DOI: 10.1186/s12911-023-02132-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Early prognostication of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who may require mechanical ventilation and have worse outcomes within 30 days of admission is useful for delivering appropriate clinical care and optimizing resource allocation. OBJECTIVE To develop machine learning models to predict COVID-19 severity at the time of the hospital admission based on a single institution data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We established a retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center from May 2020 to March 2022. Easily accessible objective markers including basic laboratory variables and initial respiratory status were assessed using Random Forest's feature importance score to create a predictive risk score. Twenty-five significant variables were identified to be used in classification models. The best predictive models were selected with repeated tenfold cross-validation methods. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital, severity was defined by 30-day mortality (30DM) rates and need for mechanical ventilation. RESULTS This was a large, single institution COVID-19 cohort including total of 1795 patients. The average age was 59.7 years old with diverse heterogeneity. 236 (13%) required mechanical ventilation and 156 patients (8.6%) died within 30 days of hospitalization. Predictive accuracy of each predictive model was validated with the 10-CV method. Random Forest classifier for 30DM model had 192 sub-trees, and obtained 0.72 sensitivity and 0.78 specificity, and 0.82 AUC. The model used to predict MV has 64 sub-trees and returned obtained 0.75 sensitivity and 0.75 specificity, and 0.81 AUC. Our scoring tool can be accessed at https://faculty.tamuc.edu/mmete/covid-risk.html . CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, we developed a risk score based on objective variables of COVID-19 patients within six hours of admission to the hospital, therefore helping predict a patient's risk of developing critical illness secondary to COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ganesh Raman
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Departments of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Bilal Ashraf
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Departments of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Yusuf Kemal Demir
- grid.266859.60000 0000 8598 2218School of Data Science, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC USA
| | - Corey D. Kershaw
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Sreekanth Cheruku
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Management, Divisions of Cardiothoracic Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Murat Atis
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Radiology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Ahsen Atis
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Hematology and Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Mustafa Atar
- grid.239578.20000 0001 0675 4725Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44195 USA
| | - Weina Chen
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Pathology, Hematopathology Section, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Ibrahim Ibrahim
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Hematology and Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Taha Bat
- grid.267313.20000 0000 9482 7121Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Hematology and Oncology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
| | - Mutlu Mete
- grid.264758.a0000 0004 1937 0087Department of Computer Science and Information Systems, Texas A&M University – Commerce, Commerce, TX 75429-3011 USA
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Ikeda S, Ueno Y, Maemura K, Yachi S, Takeyama M, Nishimoto Y, Tsujino I, Nakamura J, Yamamoto N, Nakata H, Umetsu M, Aikawa S, Hayashi H, Satokawa H, Okuno Y, Iwata E, Ogihara Y, Ikeda N, Kondo A, Iwai T, Yamada N, Ogawa T, Kobayashi T, Mo M, Yamashita Y. Association Between the Development of Thrombosis and Worsening of Disease Severity in Patients With Moderate COVID-19 on Admission - From the CLOT-COVID Study. Circ J 2023; 87:448-455. [PMID: 35786694 DOI: 10.1253/circj.cj-22-0252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The worsening of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity is a critical issue in current clinical settings and may be associated with the development of thrombosis. METHODS AND RESULTS This study used patient data obtained in the CLOT-COVID study, a retrospective multicenter cohort study. The demographics of patients with moderate COVID-19 on admission with and without worsened severity during hospitalization were compared and predictors were identified. Of 927 patients with moderate COVID-19 on admission, 182 (19.6%) had worsened severity during hospitalization. Patients with worsening of severity were older, more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and active cancer, and more likely to use pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. Patients with worsening of severity had higher D-dimer levels on admission and were more likely to develop thrombosis and major bleeding during hospitalization than those without worsening. Increased age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.03, P=0.005), diabetes (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.11-2.33, P=0.012), D-dimer levels >1.0 μg/mL on admission (OR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.45-3.03, P<0.001), and thrombosis (OR: 6.28, 95% CI: 2.72-14.53, P<0.001) were independently associated with worsening of COVID-19 severity. CONCLUSIONS Approximately 20% of patients with moderate COVID-19 had worsened severity during hospitalization. Increased age, diabetes, D-dimer levels >1.0 μg/mL on admission, and the development of thrombosis during hospitalization were significantly associated with worsened COVID-19 severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satoshi Ikeda
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences
| | - Yuki Ueno
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences
| | - Koji Maemura
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences
| | - Sen Yachi
- Japan Community Health Care Organization Tokyo Shinjuku Medical Center
| | - Makoto Takeyama
- Japan Community Health Care Organization Tokyo Shinjuku Medical Center
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Eriko Iwata
- Nankai Medical Center Japan Community Health Care Organization
| | | | | | - Akane Kondo
- Shikoku Medical Center for Children and Adults
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Yang KWK, Paris CF, Gorman KT, Rattsev I, Yoo RH, Chen Y, Desman JM, Wei TY, Greenstein JL, Taylor CO, Ray SC. Factors associated with resistance to SARS-CoV-2 infection discovered using large-scale medical record data and machine learning. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0278466. [PMID: 36812214 PMCID: PMC9946212 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0278466] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Accepted: 11/06/2022] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
There have been over 621 million cases of COVID-19 worldwide with over 6.5 million deaths. Despite the high secondary attack rate of COVID-19 in shared households, some exposed individuals do not contract the virus. In addition, little is known about whether the occurrence of COVID-19 resistance differs among people by health characteristics as stored in the electronic health records (EHR). In this retrospective analysis, we develop a statistical model to predict COVID-19 resistance in 8,536 individuals with prior COVID-19 exposure using demographics, diagnostic codes, outpatient medication orders, and count of Elixhauser comorbidities in EHR data from the COVID-19 Precision Medicine Platform Registry. Cluster analyses identified 5 patterns of diagnostic codes that distinguished resistant from non-resistant patients in our study population. In addition, our models showed modest performance in predicting COVID-19 resistance (best performing model AUROC = 0.61). Monte Carlo simulations conducted indicated that the AUROC results are statistically significant (p < 0.001) for the testing set. We hope to validate the features found to be associated with resistance/non-resistance through more advanced association studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai-Wen K. Yang
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Chloé F. Paris
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Kevin T. Gorman
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Ilia Rattsev
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Rebecca H. Yoo
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Yijia Chen
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Jacob M. Desman
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Tony Y. Wei
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Joseph L. Greenstein
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Casey Overby Taylor
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Stuart C. Ray
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Using machine learning on clinical data to identify unexpected patterns in groups of COVID-19 patients. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2236. [PMID: 36755135 PMCID: PMC9906583 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-26294-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2022] [Indexed: 02/10/2023] Open
Abstract
As clinicians are faced with a deluge of clinical data, data science can play an important role in highlighting key features driving patient outcomes, aiding in the development of new clinical hypotheses. Insight derived from machine learning can serve as a clinical support tool by connecting care providers with reliable results from big data analysis that identify previously undetected clinical patterns. In this work, we show an example of collaboration between clinicians and data scientists during the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying sub-groups of COVID-19 patients with unanticipated outcomes or who are high-risk for severe disease or death. We apply a random forest classifier model to predict adverse patient outcomes early in the disease course, and we connect our classification results to unsupervised clustering of patient features that may underpin patient risk. The paradigm for using data science for hypothesis generation and clinical decision support, as well as our triaged classification approach and unsupervised clustering methods to determine patient cohorts, are applicable to driving rapid hypothesis generation and iteration in a variety of clinical challenges, including future public health crises.
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Ramos-Rincón JM, Ventura PS, Casas-Rojo JM, Mauri M, Bermejo CL, de Latierro AO, Rubio-Rivas M, Mérida-Rodrigo L, Pérez-Casado L, Barrientos-Guerrero M, Giner-Galvañ V, Gallego-Lezaun C, Milián AH, Manzano L, Blázquez-Encinar JC, Solís-Marquínez MN, García MG, Lobo-García J, Valente VAR, Roig-Martí C, León-Téllez M, Tellería-Gómez P, González-Juárez MJ, Gómez-Huelgas R, López-Escobar A, Bermejo CL, Núñez-Cortés JM, Santos JMA, Huelgas RG, Corbella X, Pérez FF, Homs N, Montero A, Mora-Luján JM, Rubio-Rivas M, Bandera VA, Alegría JG, Jiménez-García N, del Pino JL, Escalante MDM, Romero FN, Rodriguez VN, Sierra JO, de Blas PA, Cañas CA, Ayuso B, Morejón JB, Escudero SC, Frías MC, Tejido SC, de Miguel Campo B, Pedroche CD, Simon RD, Reyne AG, Veganzones LI, Huerta LJ, Blanco AL, Gonzalo JL, Lora-Tamayo J, Bermejo CL, de la Calle GM, Godoy RM, Perpiña BO, Ruiz DP, Fernández MS, Montes JT, Suárez AMÁ, Vergés CD, Martínez RFM, Aizpuru EMF, Carrasco AG, Amezua CH, Caleya JFL, Martínez DL, del Mar Martínez López M, Zapico AM, Iscar CO, Casado LP, Martínez MLT, Chamorro LMT, Casas LA, de Oña ÁA, Beato RA, Gonzalo LA, Muñoz JA, Oblitas CMA, García CA, Cebrián MB, Corral JB, Guerrero MB, Estrada ADB, Moreno MC, Fernández PC, Carrillo R, Pérez SC, Muñoz EC, Moreno ADC, Carvajal MCC, de Santos S, et alRamos-Rincón JM, Ventura PS, Casas-Rojo JM, Mauri M, Bermejo CL, de Latierro AO, Rubio-Rivas M, Mérida-Rodrigo L, Pérez-Casado L, Barrientos-Guerrero M, Giner-Galvañ V, Gallego-Lezaun C, Milián AH, Manzano L, Blázquez-Encinar JC, Solís-Marquínez MN, García MG, Lobo-García J, Valente VAR, Roig-Martí C, León-Téllez M, Tellería-Gómez P, González-Juárez MJ, Gómez-Huelgas R, López-Escobar A, Bermejo CL, Núñez-Cortés JM, Santos JMA, Huelgas RG, Corbella X, Pérez FF, Homs N, Montero A, Mora-Luján JM, Rubio-Rivas M, Bandera VA, Alegría JG, Jiménez-García N, del Pino JL, Escalante MDM, Romero FN, Rodriguez VN, Sierra JO, de Blas PA, Cañas CA, Ayuso B, Morejón JB, Escudero SC, Frías MC, Tejido SC, de Miguel Campo B, Pedroche CD, Simon RD, Reyne AG, Veganzones LI, Huerta LJ, Blanco AL, Gonzalo JL, Lora-Tamayo J, Bermejo CL, de la Calle GM, Godoy RM, Perpiña BO, Ruiz DP, Fernández MS, Montes JT, Suárez AMÁ, Vergés CD, Martínez RFM, Aizpuru EMF, Carrasco AG, Amezua CH, Caleya JFL, Martínez DL, del Mar Martínez López M, Zapico AM, Iscar CO, Casado LP, Martínez MLT, Chamorro LMT, Casas LA, de Oña ÁA, Beato RA, Gonzalo LA, Muñoz JA, Oblitas CMA, García CA, Cebrián MB, Corral JB, Guerrero MB, Estrada ADB, Moreno MC, Fernández PC, Carrillo R, Pérez SC, Muñoz EC, Moreno ADC, Carvajal MCC, de Santos S, Gómez AE, Carracedo EF, Jenaro MMFM, Valle FG, Garcia A, Fernandez-Bravo IG, Leoni MEG, Antúnez MG, Narciso CGS, Gurjian AA, Ibáñez LJ, Olleros CL, Mendo CL, García SL, Jimeno VM, Nohales CM, Núñez-Cortés JM, Ledesma SM, Míguez AM, Delgado CM, Ortega LO, Sánchez SP, Virto AP, Sanz MTP, Llorente BP, Ruiz SP, Fernández-Llamazares GS, Macías MT, Samaniego NT, do Rego AT, Garcia MVV, Villarreal G, Etayo MZ, Lara RA, Fernandez IC, García JCC, García García GM, Granados JG, Sánchez BG, Periáñez FJM, Perez MJP, Pérez JLB, Méndez MLS, Rivera NA, Vieitez AC, del Corral Beamonte E, Manglano JD, Mera IF, del Mar Garcia Andreu M, Aseguinolaza MG, Lezaun CG, Laorden CJ, Murgui RM, Sanz MTM, Ayala-Gutiérrez MM, López RB, Fonseca JB, Buonaiuto VA, Martínez LFC, Palacios LC, Muriel CC, de Windt F, Christophel ATFT, Ocaña PG, Huelgas RG, García JG, Oliver JAH, Jansen-Chaparro S, López-Carmona MD, Quirantes PL, Sampalo AL, Lorenzo-Hernández E, Sevilla JJM, Carmona JM, Pérez-Belmonte LM, de Pedro IP, Pineda-Cantero A, Gómez CR, Ricci M, Cánovas JS, Troncoso JÁ, Fernández FA, Quintana FB, Arenzana CB, Molina SC, Candalija AC, Bengoa GD, de Gea Grela A, de Lorenzo Hernández A, Vidal AD, Capitán CF, Iglesias MFG, Muñoz BG, Gil CRH, Martínez JMH, Hontañón V, Hernández MJJ, Lahoz C, Calvo CM, Gutiérrez JCM, Prieto MM, Robles EM, Saldaña AM, Fernández AM, Prieto JMM, Mozo AN, López CMO, Peláez EP, Pampyn MP, Simón MAQ, Ramos Ramos JC, Ruperto LR, Purificación AS, Bueso TS, Torre RS, Abanedes CIS, Tabares YU, Mayoral MV, Manau JV, del Carmen Beceiro Abad M, Romero MAF, Castro SM, Guillan EMP, Nuñez MP, Fontan PMP, de Larriva APA, Espinal PC, Lista JD, Fuentes-Jiménez F, del Carmen Guerrero Martínez M, Vázquez MJG, Torres JJ, Pérez LL, López-Miranda J, Piedra LM, Orge MM, Vinagre JP, Pérez-Martinez P, Vílchez MER, Martínez AR, Cabrera JLR, Torres-Peña JD, Tomás MA, Balaz D, Tur DB, Navarro RC, Pérez PC, Redondo JC, White ED, Espínola ME, Del Barrio LE, Atiénzar PJE, Cervera CG, Núñez DFG, Navarro FG, Galvañ VG, Uranga AG, Martínez JG, Isasi IH, Villar LL, Sempere VM, Cruz JMN, Fernández SP, García JJP, Pleguezuelos RP, Pérez AR, Ripoll JMS, Mira AS, Wikman-Jorgensen P, Ayllón JAA, Artero A, del Mar Carmona Martín M, Valls MJF, de Mar Fernández Garcés M, Belda ABG, Cruz IL, López MM, Sanchis EM, Gandia JM, Roger LP, Belmonte AMP, García AV, Eisenhofer AA, Milla AA, Pérez IB, Gutiérrez LB, Garay JB, Parra JC, Díaz AC, Da Silva EC, Hernández MC, Díaz RC, Sánchez MJC, Gozalo CC, Martínez VCM, Doblado LD, de la Fuente Moral S, de Santiago AD, Yagüe ID, Velasco ID, Duca AM, del Campo PD, López GE, Palomo EE, Cruz AF, Gómez AG, Prieto SG, Revilla BG, Viejo MÁG, Irusta JG, Merino PG, Abreu EVG, Martín IG, Rojas ÁG, Villanueva AG, Jiménez JH, Estéllez FI, del Estal PL, Sáiz MCM, de Mendoza Fernández C, Urbistondo MM, Vera FM, Seirul-lo MM, Pita SM, Sánchez PAM, Hernández EM, Vargas AM, Concha VMT, De La Torre IM, Rubio EM, de Benito RM, Serrano AM, Palomo PN, Pascual IP, Martín-Vegue AJR, Martínez AR, Olleros CR, Montaud AR, Pizarro YR, García SR, de Domingo DR, Ortiz DS, Chica ES, Almena IS, Martin ES, Chen YT, de Ureta PT, Alijo ÁV, Comendador JMV, Núñez JAV, Yeguas IA, Gómez JA, Cuchillo JB, López IB, Clotet NC, Elías AEC, Manuel EC, de Luque CMC, Benbunan CC, Vilan LD, Hernández CD, Peralta EED, Pérez VE, Fernandez-Castelao S, Saavedra MOF, Klepzig JLG, del Rosario Iguarán Bermúdez M, Ferrer EJ, Rodríguez AM, de Pedro AM, Sánchez RÁM, Bailón MM, Álvarez SM, Orantos MJN, Mata CO, García EO, Mata DO, González CO, Perez-Somarriba J, Mateos PP, Muñoz MER, Regaira XR, Gallardo LMR, Fornie IS, Botrán AS, Robles MS, Urbano ME, González AMV, Martínez MV, Monge Monge D, Pasos EMF, García AV, Comet LS, Giménez LL, Samper UA, Repiso GA, Bruñén JMG, Barrio ML, Martínez MAC, Igual JJG, Fenoll RG, García MA, Monge EA, Rodríguez JÁ, Varela CA, Gòdia MB, Molina MB, Vega MB, Curbelo J, de las Heras Moreno A, Godoy ID, Alvarez ACE, Martín-Caro IF, López-Mosteiro AF, Marquez GG, Blanco MJG, del Álamo Hernández YG, Encina CGR, González NG, Rodríguez CG, Martín NLS, Báez MM, Delgado CM, Caballero PP, Serrano JP, Rodríguez LR, Cortés PR, Franco CR, Roy-Vallejo E, Vega MR, Lloret AS, Moreno BS, Alba MS, Ballesteros JS, Somovilla A, Fernández CS, Tirado MV, Marti AV, Pareja JFP, Fraile IP, Blanco AM, del Castillo Cantero R, López JLV, Lorite IR, Martínez RF, García IS, Rangel LS, Álvarez AA, Juarros OA, López AA, Castiñeira CC, Calviño AC, Sánchez MC, Varela RF, Castro SJF, Trigo AP, Jarel RP, Varea FR, Freán IR, Alonso LR, Pensado FJS, Porto DV, Saavedra CC, Gómez JF, López BG, Garrido MSH, Amorós AIL, Gil SL, de los Reyes Pascual Pérez M, Perea NR, García AT, Lobo JA, Casanovas LF, Amigo JL, Fernández MM, Bermúdez IO, Fernández MP, Rhyman N, Piqueras NV, Pedrajas JNA, García AM, Vargas I, Jiménez IA, González MC, Cobos-Siles M, Corral-Gudino L, Cubero-Morais P, Fernández MG, González JPM, Dehesa MP, Espinosa PS, Blanco SC, Gamboa JOM, Mosteiro CS, Asiain AS, Santos JMA, Barrera ABB, Vela BB, Muiño CB, Fernández CB, Hernáiz RC, López IC, Rojo JMC, Troncoso AC, Romano PC, Deodati F, Santiago AE, Sánchez GGC, Guijarro EG, Sánchez FJG, de la Torre PG, de Guzmán García-Monge M, Luordo D, González MM, Bermejo JAM, Valverde CP, Quero JLP, Rojas FR, García LR, Gonzalo ES, Muñoz FJT, de la Sota JV, Martínez JV, Gómez MG, Sánchez PR, Gonzalez GA, Iraurgi AL, Arostegui AA, Martínez PA, Fernández IMP, Becerro EM, Jiménez AI, Núñez CV, López MA, López EG, Losada MSA, Estévez BR, Muñoz AMA, Fernández MB, Cano V, Moreno RC, Garcia-Tenorio FC, Nájera BDT, González RE, Butenegro MPG, Díez AG, Caverzaschi VG, Pedraza PMG, Moraleja JG, Carvajal RH, Aranda PJ, González RL, Caparachini ÁL, Castañeyra PL, Ancin AL, Garcia JDM, Romero CM, Saiz MJM, Moríñigo HM, Nicolás GM, Platon EM, Oliveri F, Ortiz Ortiz E, Rafael RP, Galán PR, Berrocal MAS, de Ávila VSR, Sierra PT, Aranda YU, Clemente JV, Bergua CY, de la Peña Fernández A, Milián AH, Manrique MA, Erdozain AC, Ruiz ALI, Luque FJB, Carrasco-Sánchez FJ, de-Sousa-Baena M, Leal JD, Rubio AE, Huertas MF, Bravo JAG, Macías AG, Jiménez EG, Jiménez AH, Quintero CL, Reguera CM, Marcos FJM, Beamud FM, Pérez-Aguilar M, Jiménez AP, Castaño VR, dedel AlcazarRío AS, Ruiz LT, González DA, de Zabalza IAP, Hernández SA, Sáenz JC, Dendariena B, del Mazo MG, de Narvajas Urra IM, Hernández SM, Fernández EM, Somovilla JLP, Pejenaute ER, Rodríguez-Solís JB, Osorio LC, del Pilar Fidalgo Montero M, Soriano MIF, Rincón EEL, Hermida AM, Carrilero JM, Santiago JÁP, Robledo MS, Rojas PS, Yebes NJT, Vento V, Vaca LFA, Arnanz AA, García OA, González MB, Sanz PB, Llisto AC, de Pedro Baena S, Del Hoyo Cuenda B, Fabregate-Fuente M, Osorio MAG, Sánchez IG, García AG, Cisneros OAL, Manzano L, Martínez-Lacalzada M, Ortiz BM, Rey-García J, González ER, Díaz CS, Fajardo GS, Carantoña CS, Viteri-Noël A, Zhilina Zhilina S, Claudio GMA, Rodríguez VB, Muñoz CC, Pérez AC, Orbes MVC, Sánchez DE, Revuelta SI, Martín MM, González JIM, Oterino JÁM, Alonso LM, Balbuena SP, García MLP, Prados AR, Rodríguez-Alonso B, Alegría ÁR, Ledesma MS, Pérez RJT, Encinar JCB, Cilleros CM, Martínez IJ, Delange TG, González RF, Noya AG, Ceron CH, Avanzini II, Diez AL, Mato PL, Vizcaya AML, Benítez DP, Zemsch MMP, Expósito LP, Bar MP, González LR, Lara LR, Cabañero D, Ballester MC, Fernández PC, Sánchez RG, Escrig MJ, Amela CM, Gómez LP, Navarro CP, Parra JAT, de Almeida CT, Villarejo MEF, Calvo VP, Otero SP, López BG, Frías CA, Romero VM, Pérez LA, Velado EM, González RA, Boixeda R, Fernández Fernández J, Mármol CL, Navarro MP, Guzmán AR, Fustier AS, Castro JL, Reboiro MLL, González CS, Sala ER, Izuel JMP, Zamrani ZK, Diaz HA, Lopez TD, Pego EM, Pérez CM, Ferro AP, Trigo SS, Sambade DS, Ferrin MT, del Carmen Vázquez Friol M, Maneiro LV, Rodríguez BC, Espartero MEG, Rivas LM, de la Sierra Navas Alcántara M, Tirado-Miranda R, Marquínez MNS, García VA, Suárez DB, Arenas NG, García PM, Copa DC, García AÁ, Álvarez JC, Calderón MJM, Noriega RG, Rubia MC, García JL, Martínez LT, Celeiro JF, Aguilar DEO, Riesco IM, Bécares JV, Mateos AB, García AAT, Casamayor JD, Silvera DG, Díaz AA, Carballo CH, Tejera A, Prieto MJM, Muñoz MBM, Del Arco Delgado JM, Díaz DR, Feria MB, Herrera Herrera FJ, de la Luz Padilla Salazar M, Luis RH, Ledezma EMC, del Mar López Gámez M, Hernández LT, Pérez SC, García SGA, Gainett GC, Hidalgo AG, Daza JM, Peraza MH, Santos RA, Bernabeu-Wittel M, Suárez SR, Nieto M, Miranda LG, Mancera RMG, Torre FE, Quiles CH, Guzmán CC, de la Cuesta JD, Vega JET, del Carmen López Ríos M, Jiménez PD, Franco BB, de Juan CJ, Rivero SG, Tenllado JL, Lara VA, Estrada AG, Ena J, Segado JEG, Ferrer RG, Lorenzo VG, Arroyo RM, García MG, Hernández FJV, González ÁLM, Montes BV, Die RMG, Molinero AM, Regidor MM, Díez RR, Sierra BH, García LFD, Acedo IEA, Cano CMS, García VH, Bernal BR, Jiménez JC, Bazán EC, Reniu AC, Grabalosa JR, Solà JF, De Boulle IC, Xancó CG, Núñez OR, Ripper CJ, Gutiérrez AG, Trallero LER, Novo MFA, Lecumberri JJN, Ruiz NP, Riancho J, García IS, Baena PC, Sevilla JE, Padilla LG, Ronquillo PG, Bustos PG, Botías MN, Taboada JR, Rodríguez MR, Alvarez VA, Suárez NM, Suárez SR, Díaz SS, Pérez LS, Gómez MF, Castaño CM, Rodríguez LM, Vázquez C, Estévanez IC, Gutiérrez CY, Sela MM, Cosío SF, Álvaro CMG, García JL, Piñeiro AP, Viera YC, Rodríguez LC, de Juan Alvarez C, Benitez GF, Escudero LG, Torres JM, Escriche PM, Canteli SP, Pérez MCR, Soler JA, Remolar MB, Álvarez AC, Carlotti DD, Gimeno MJE, Juana SF, López PG, Soler MTG, de la Sota DP, Castellanos GP, Catalán IP, Martí CR, Monzó PR, Padilla JR, Gaya NT, Blasco JU, Pascual MAM, Vidal LJ, Conesa AA, Rivas MCA, Alsina MH, Romero JM, Diez-Canseco AMU, Martínez FA, Vásquez EA, Stablé JCE, Belmonte AH, Peiró AM, Goñi RM, Castellanos MCP, Belda BS, Navarro DV, Lombraña AS, Ugartondo JC, Plaza ABM, Asensio AN, Alves BP, López NV, Téllez ML, Epelde F, Torrente I, Vasco PG, Santacruz AR, Muñoz AV, Giner MJE, Calvo-Sotelo AE, Sardón EG, González JG, Salazar LG, Garcia AA, Días IM, Gomez AS, Matos MC, Gaspar SN, Nieto AG, Méndez RG, Álvarez AR, Hernández OP, Ramírez AP, González MCM, Lorite MNN, Navarrete LG, Negrin JCA, González JFA, Jiménez I, Toledo PO, Ponce EM, Torres XTE, González SG, Fernández CN, Gómez PT, Gisbert OA, Llistosella MB, Casanova PC, Flores AG, Hinojo AG, Martínez AIM, del Carmen Nogales Nieves M, Austrui AR, Cervantes AZ, Castro VA, Lomba AMB, Aparicio RB, Morales MF, Villar JMF, Monteagudo MTL, García CP, Ferreira LR, Llovo DS, Feijoo MBV, Romero JAM, de Albornoz JLSC, Pérez MJS, Martín ES, Astrua TC, Giraldo PTG, Juárez MJG, Fernandez VM, Echevarry AVR, Arche JFV, Rivero MGR, Martínez AM, Bernad RV, Limia C, Fernández CA, Fernández AT, Fajardo LP, de Vega Santos T, Ruiz AL, Míguez HM, for the SEMI-COVID-19 Network. Validation of the RIM Score-COVID in the Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 Registry. Intern Emerg Med 2023; 18:907-915. [PMID: 36680737 PMCID: PMC9862219 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-023-03200-3] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/09/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
The significant impact of COVID-19 worldwide has made it necessary to develop tools to identify patients at high risk of severe disease and death. This work aims to validate the RIM Score-COVID in the SEMI-COVID-19 Registry. The RIM Score-COVID is a simple nomogram with high predictive capacity for in-hospital death due to COVID-19 designed using clinical and analytical parameters of patients diagnosed in the first wave of the pandemic. The nomogram uses five variables measured on arrival to the emergency department (ED): age, sex, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein level, and neutrophil-to-platelet ratio. Validation was performed in the Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 Registry, which included consecutive patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 in Spain. The cohort was divided into three time periods: T1 from February 1 to June 10, 2020 (first wave), T2 from June 11 to December 31, 2020 (second wave, pre-vaccination period), and T3 from January 1 to December 5, 2021 (vaccination period). The model's accuracy in predicting in-hospital COVID-19 mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Clinical and laboratory data from 22,566 patients were analyzed: 15,976 (70.7%) from T1, 4,233 (18.7%) from T2, and 2,357 from T3 (10.4%). AUROC of the RIM Score-COVID in the entire SEMI-COVID-19 Registry was 0.823 (95%CI 0.819-0.827) and was 0.834 (95%CI 0.830-0.839) in T1, 0.792 (95%CI 0.781-0.803) in T2, and 0.799 (95%CI 0.785-0.813) in T3. The RIM Score-COVID is a simple, easy-to-use method for predicting in-hospital COVID-19 mortality that uses parameters measured in most EDs. This tool showed good predictive ability in successive disease waves.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Paula Sol Ventura
- Fundacio Institut d’Investigacio en Ciències de La Salut Germans Trias I Pujol (IGTP), 08916 Badalona, Spain
| | - José-Manuel Casas-Rojo
- Internal Medicine Department, Infanta Cristina University Hospital, Parla, 28981 Madrid, Spain
| | - Marc Mauri
- Data Scientist, Kaizen AI, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | - Manuel Rubio-Rivas
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bellvitge University Hospital, Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Vicente Giner-Galvañ
- Internal Medicine Department. Hospital, Clínico Universitario de Sant Joan d’Alacant, Alicante, Spain
| | | | | | - Luis Manzano
- Internal Medicine Department, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ricardo Gómez-Huelgas
- Internal Medicine Department, Regional University Hospital of Málaga, Biomedical Research Institute of Málaga (IBIMA), University of Málaga (UMA), Málaga, Spain
| | - Alejandro López-Escobar
- Pediatrics Department, Clinical Research Unit, Hospital Universitario Vithas Madrid La Milagrosa, Fundación Vithas. Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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COVID-19 clinical outcomes by patient disability status: A retrospective cohort study. Disabil Health J 2023; 16:101441. [PMID: 36764842 PMCID: PMC9834120 DOI: 10.1016/j.dhjo.2023.101441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2022] [Revised: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND People with disabilities might experience worse clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but evidence is limited. OBJECTIVE To investigate if people with disabilities requiring assistance are more likely to experience severe COVID-19 or death. METHODS Data from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Precision Medicine Analytics Platform Registry (JH-CROWN) included 6494 adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and admitted between March 4, 2020-October 29, 2021. Severe COVID-19 and death were defined using the occurrence and timing of clinical events. Assistive needs due to disabilities were reported by patients or their proxies upon admission. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between disability status and severe COVID-19 or death. Primary models adjusted for demographics and secondary models additionally adjusted for clinical covariates. RESULTS In this clinical cohort (47-73 years, 49% female, 39% Black), patients with disabilities requiring assistance had 1.35 times (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.01, 1.81) the hazard of severe COVID-19 among patients <65 years, but not among those ≥65 years, equating to an additional 17.5 severe COVID-19 cases (95% CI:7.7, 28.2) per 100 patients. A lower risk of mortality was found among patients <65 years, but this finding was not robust due to the small number of deaths. CONCLUSIONS People with disabilities requiring assistance aged <65 years are more likely to develop severe COVID-19. Although our study is limited by using a medical model of disability, these analyses intend to further our understanding of COVID-19 outcomes among people with disabilities. Also, standardized disability data collection within electronic health records is needed.
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De Vito A, Colpani A, Saderi L, Puci M, Zauli B, Meloni MC, Fois M, Bitti A, Di Castri C, Fiore V, Maida I, Babudieri S, Sotgiu G, Madeddu G. Is the 4C Score Still a Valid Item to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in People with SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the Omicron Variant Era? Life (Basel) 2023; 13:life13010183. [PMID: 36676132 PMCID: PMC9863404 DOI: 10.3390/life13010183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2022] [Revised: 01/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, several scores have been proposed to identify infected individuals at a higher risk of progression and death. The most famous is the 4C score. However, it was developed in early 2020. Our study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the 4C score during the wave in which the Omicron variant was prevalent. An observational study was conducted at an Italian University Hospital between 1 January and 31 July 2022. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the ability of the 4C score to predict mortality. Overall, 1186 people were recruited, of which 160 (13.5%) died. According to the 4C score, 177 (11.6%) were classified as having a low risk of mortality, 302 (25.5%) were intermediate, 596 (50.3%) were high, and 151 (12.7%) were very high. The ROC curve of the 4C score showed an AUC (95% CI) value of 0.78 (0.74−0.82). At the criterion value of > 10, the sensitivity was 76.2% and the specificity was 62.67%. Similar to previous studies, the 4C mortality score performed well in our sample, and it is still a useful tool for clinicians to identify patients with a high risk of progression. However, clinicians must be aware that the mortality rate reported in the original studies was higher than that observed in our study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea De Vito
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +39-34-0470-4834
| | - Agnese Colpani
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Laura Saderi
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Mariangela Puci
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Beatrice Zauli
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Maria Chiara Meloni
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Marco Fois
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Alessandra Bitti
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Cosimo Di Castri
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Vito Fiore
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Ivana Maida
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Sergio Babudieri
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Giovanni Sotgiu
- Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Giordano Madeddu
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy
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Rivera-Torres J, Girón N, San José E. COVID-19: A Comprehensive Review on Cardiovascular Alterations, Immunity, and Therapeutics in Older Adults. J Clin Med 2023; 12:488. [PMID: 36675416 PMCID: PMC9865642 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12020488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2022] [Revised: 12/28/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Here, we present a review focusing on three relevant issues related to COVID-19 and its impact in older adults (60 years and older). SARS-CoV-2 infection starts in the respiratory system, but the development of systemic diseases accompanied by severe clinical manifestations has also been reported, with cardiovascular and immune system dysfunction being the major ones. Additionally, the presence of comorbidities and aging represent major risk factors for the severity and poor prognosis of the disease. Since aging-associated decline has been largely related to immune and cardiovascular alterations, we sought to investigate the consequences and the underlying mechanisms of these pathologies to understand the severity of the illness in this population. Understanding the effects of COVID-19 on both systems should translate into comprehensive and improved medical care for elderly COVID-19 patients, preventing cardiovascular as well as immunological alterations in this population. Approved therapies that contribute to the improvement of symptoms and a reduction in mortality, as well as new therapies in development, constitute an approach to managing these disorders. Among them, we describe antivirals, cytokine antagonists, cytokine signaling pathway inhibitors, and vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Rivera-Torres
- Department of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Universidad Europea de Madrid, 28670 Villaviciosa de Odón, Spain
| | - Natalia Girón
- Department of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Universidad Europea de Madrid, 28670 Villaviciosa de Odón, Spain
| | - Esther San José
- Department of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Universidad Europea de Madrid, 28670 Villaviciosa de Odón, Spain
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Patanavanich R, Siripoon T, Amponnavarat S, Glantz SA. Active Smokers Are at Higher Risk of COVID-19 Death: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. NICOTINE & TOBACCO RESEARCH : OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR RESEARCH ON NICOTINE AND TOBACCO 2023; 25:177-184. [PMID: 35363877 DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntac085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2021] [Revised: 01/08/2022] [Accepted: 03/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Current evidence indicates that smoking worsens COVID-19 outcomes. However, when studies restricted their analyses to current smokers, the risks for COVID-19 severity and death are inconsistent. AIMS AND METHODS This meta-analysis explored the association between current smoking and the risk for mortality based on the studies that reported all three categories of smoking (current, former, and never smokers) to overcome the limitation of the previous meta-analyses which former smokers might have been classified as nonsmokers. We searched PubMed and Embase up to January 1, 2021. We included studies reporting all three categories of smoking behaviors of COVID-19 patients and mortality outcomes. A random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to examine relationships in the data. RESULTS A total of 34 articles with 35 193 COVID-19 patients was included. The meta-analysis confirmed the association between current smoking (odds ratio [OR] 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.58) and former smoking (OR 1.76, 95% CI: 1.53-2.03) with COVID-19 mortality. We also found that the risk for COVID-19 death in current smokers does not vary by age, but significantly drops by age in former smokers. Moreover, current smokers in non-high-income countries have higher risks of COVID-19 death compared with high-income countries (OR 3.11, 95% CI: 2.04-4.72 vs. OR 1.14, 95% CI: 0.91-1.43; p = .015). CONCLUSIONS Current and former smokers are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19. Tobacco control should be strengthened to encourage current smokers to quit and prevent the initiation of smoking. Public health professionals should take the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to promote smoking prevention and cession. IMPLICATIONS This study makes an important contribution to the existing literature by distinguishing between current and former smoking and their separate effects on COVID-19 mortality. We also explore the effects by age of patients and country income level. Findings from this study provide empirical evidence against misinformation about the relationship between smoking and COVID-19 mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roengrudee Patanavanich
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Tanatorn Siripoon
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Salin Amponnavarat
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Stanton A Glantz
- Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education (retired), University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Aguirre-Milachay E, León-Figueroa DA, Chumán-Sánchez M, Romani L, Runzer-Colmenares FM. Factors associated with mortality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary hospital in Lambayeque, Peru, during the first wave of the pandemic. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0285133. [PMID: 37167338 PMCID: PMC10174592 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION COVID-19 caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide, becoming a long-term pandemic. OBJECTIVES To analyze the factors associated with mortality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in a tertiary hospital in the Lambayeque region of Peru. METHODS A retrospective cohort study of patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19, hospitalized in a hospital in northern Peru, was conducted from March to September 2020. RESULTS Of the 297 patients studied, 69% were women, the mean age was 63.99 years (SD = ±15.33 years). Hypertension was the most frequent comorbidity (36.67%), followed by diabetes mellitus (24.67%) and obesity (8.33%). The probability of survival at 3 days of ICU stay was 65.3%, at 7 days 24.2%, and 0% on day 14. Risk factors associated with mortality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 are age, male sex, tachypnea, low systolic blood pressure, low peripheral oxygen saturation, impaired renal function, elevated IL-6 and elevated D-dimer. CONCLUSIONS Mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was 51.18 per 100 persons, Mortality was found to be associated with hypertension, type of infiltrating, and sepsis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edwin Aguirre-Milachay
- Servicio de Geriatría, Departamento de Medicina, Hospital Nacional Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo, Chiclayo, Peru
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, Chiclayo, Peru
| | - Darwin A León-Figueroa
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, Chiclayo, Peru
- Emerge, Unidad de Investigación en Enfermedades Emergentes y Cambio Climático, Facultad de Salud Pública y Administración, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Marisella Chumán-Sánchez
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, Chiclayo, Peru
- Sociedad Científica de Estudiantes de Medicina Veritas (SCIEMVE), Chiclayo, Perú
| | - Luccio Romani
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, Chiclayo, Peru
- Emerge, Unidad de Investigación en Enfermedades Emergentes y Cambio Climático, Facultad de Salud Pública y Administración, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
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Manfra A, Chen C, Batra K, Min Tun K, Kioka MJ. Factors associated with improved outcome of inhaled corticosteroid use in COVID-19: A single institutional study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e32420. [PMID: 36595838 PMCID: PMC9794212 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000032420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Asthmatics seem less prone to adverse outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and some data shows that inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are protective. We gathered data on anecdotal ICS and outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, given there is literature supporting ICS may reduce risk of severe infection. In addition, we fill gaps in current literature evaluating Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) as a risk assessment tool for COVID-19. This was a single-center, retrospective study designed and conducted to identify factors associated intubation and inpatient mortality. A multivariate logistic regression model was fit to generate adjusted odds ratios (OR). Intubation was associated with male gender (OR, 2.815; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.348-5.881; P = .006) and increasing body mass index (BMI) (OR, 1.053; 95% CI, 1.009-1.099; P = .019). Asthma was associated with lower odds for intubation (OR, 0.283; 95% CI, 0.108-0.74; P = .01). 80% of patients taking pre-hospital ICS were not intubated (n = 8). In-patient mortality was associated with male gender (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.167-5.1; P = .018), older age (OR, 1.096; 95% CI, 1.052-1.142; P = <.001), and increasing BMI (OR, 1.079; 95% CI, 1.033-1.127; P = .001). Asthma was associated with lower in-patient mortality (OR, 0.221; 95% CI, 0.057-0.854; P = .029). CCI did not correlate with intubation (OR, 1.262; 95% CI, 0.923-1.724; P = .145) or inpatient mortality (OR, 0.896; 95% CI, 0.665-1.206; P = .468). Asthmatics hospitalized for COVID-19 had less adverse outcomes, and most patients taking pre-hospital ICS were not intubated. CCI score was not associated with intubation or inpatient mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Manfra
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada, Las Vegas, USA
| | - Claire Chen
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada, Las Vegas, USA
| | - Kavita Batra
- Department of Medical Education and Office of Research, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada, Las Vegas, USA
| | - Kyaw Min Tun
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada, Las Vegas, USA
| | - Mutsumi John Kioka
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada, Las Vegas, USA
- * Correspondence: Mutsumi John Kioka, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Nevada, Las Vegas School of Medicine, 1701 W. Charleston Blvd., Suite 230, Las Vegas, NV 89102, USA (e-mail: )
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Zambrano S, Davis M, Leeds DR, Noronha K, McLaughlin A, Burns RH, Mulvey E, Linas BP, Assoumou SA. Laboratory test trends within 72 hours of hospital admission associated with death among COVID-19 patients. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e31154. [PMID: 36550914 PMCID: PMC9771162 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000031154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Early identification of patients at risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is crucial for appropriate triage and determination of need for closer monitoring. Few studies have examined laboratory trends in COVID-19 infection and sought to quantify the degree to which laboratory values affect mortality. We conducted a retrospective cohort (n = 407) study of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 early in the course of the pandemic, from March 16th to April 8th, 2020 and compared baseline to repeat laboratory testing 72 hours into admission. The primary outcome was death. We found that rises of 25 mg/L C-reactive protein, 50 units/L lactate dehydrogenase, and 100 ng/mL ferritin were associated with 23%, 28%, and 1% increased odds of death, respectively. In contrast, changes in fibrinogen, D-dimer, white blood cell count, and creatinine in the first few days of hospital admission were not associated with mortality. These quantitative findings may assist clinicians in determining the risk of potential clinical decline in patients with COVID-19 and influence early management.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Megan Davis
- Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | - Angela McLaughlin
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Elizabeth Mulvey
- Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Benjamin P. Linas
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Sabrina A. Assoumou
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA
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Padilha DMH, Garcia GR, Liveraro GSS, Mendes MCS, Takahashi MES, Lascala F, Silveira MN, Pozzuto L, Carrilho LAO, Guerra LD, Moreira RCL, Branbilla SR, Dertkigil SSJ, Takahashi J, Carvalheira JBC. Construction of a nomogram for predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: A machine learning analysis. INFORMATICS IN MEDICINE UNLOCKED 2022; 36:101138. [PMID: 36474601 PMCID: PMC9715454 DOI: 10.1016/j.imu.2022.101138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Revised: 11/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES We aim to verify the use of ML algorithms to predict patient outcome using a relatively small dataset and to create a nomogram to assess in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. METHODS A database of 200 COVID-19 patients admitted to the Clinical Hospital of State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) was used in this analysis. Patient features were divided into three categories: clinical, chest abnormalities, and body composition characteristics acquired by computerized tomography. These features were evaluated independently and combined to predict patient outcomes. To minimize performance fluctuations due to low sample number, reduce possible bias related to outliers, and evaluate the uncertainties generated by the small dataset, we developed a shuffling technique, a modified version of the Monte Carlo Cross Validation, creating several subgroups for training the algorithm and complementary testing subgroups. The following ML algorithms were tested: random forest, boosted decision trees, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Performance was evaluated by analyzing Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The importance of each feature in the determination of the outcome predictability was also studied and a nomogram was created based on the most important features selected by the exclusion test. RESULTS Among the different sets of features, clinical variables age, lymphocyte number and weight were the most valuable features for prognosis prediction. However, we observed that skeletal muscle radiodensity and presence of pleural effusion were also important for outcome determination. Integrating these independent predictors was successfully developed to accurately predict mortality in COVID-19 in hospital patients. A nomogram based on these five features was created to predict COVID-19 mortality in hospitalized patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86 ± 0.04. CONCLUSION ML algorithms can be reliable for the prediction of COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality, even when using a relatively small dataset. The success of ML techniques in smaller datasets broadens the applicability of these methods in several problems in the medical area. In addition, feature importance analysis allowed us to determine the most important variables for the prediction tasks resulting in a nomogram with good accuracy and clinical utility in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniela M H Padilha
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Gabriel R Garcia
- Institute of Physics "Gleb Wataghin", University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Gianni S S Liveraro
- Institute of Physics "Gleb Wataghin", University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Maria C S Mendes
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Maria E S Takahashi
- Institute of Physics "Gleb Wataghin", University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Fabiana Lascala
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Marina N Silveira
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Lara Pozzuto
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Larissa A O Carrilho
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Lívia D Guerra
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Rafaella C L Moreira
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Sandra R Branbilla
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Sérgio S J Dertkigil
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Jun Takahashi
- Institute of Physics "Gleb Wataghin", University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - José B C Carvalheira
- Department of Anesthesiology, Oncology and Radiology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil
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Effects of Different Corticosteroid Doses in Elderly Unvaccinated Patients with Severe to Critical COVID-19. LIFE (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 12:life12111924. [PMID: 36431059 PMCID: PMC9697502 DOI: 10.3390/life12111924] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Revised: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 infection can induce a broad range of clinical symptoms, and the most severe cases are characterized by an uncontrolled inflammatory response with the overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines. Elevated levels of C-reactive protein, interleukin-1B, and interleukin-6 have become key signatures of severe COVID-19. For this reason, the use of 6 mg of dexamethasone has become a standard of care, although this regime may not be optimal. Even though various glucocorticoid doses have been proposed, it is still unclear which dose should be used to prevent adverse effects while at the same time reducing the inflammatory response. Here, we compared two different doses of corticosteroids in 52 elderly hospitalized patients with severe to critical COVID-19 to assess efficacy and safety. We showed that in patients receiving a higher dose of prednisone, the time to negative swab was significantly longer. Furthermore, although neither dose was correlated with the risk of death, patients receiving the high dose were more likely to have adverse events such as hyperglycemia, leukocytosis, an increase in systemic blood pressure, and others. Finally, the BMI, WBC number, and NLR value were directly related to death. In conclusion, although the optimal glucocorticoid dose is still undefined, our retrospective study supports the absence of beneficial effects in the utilization of higher doses of corticosteroids in elderly patients with severe to critical COVID-19.
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Jardim-Santos GP, Schulte HL, Kurizky PS, Gomes CM, Nóbrega OT, de Gois ET, de Carvalho MRM, Martins FP, Nicola AM, de Albuquerque CP, Espindola LS, Naves LA, Soares AADSM, Albuquerque P, Fontes W, Amaral LRD, Gomes MDS, Bertarini PLL, Brito-de-Sousa JP, Campi-Azevedo AC, Peruhype-Magalhães V, Teixeira-Carvalho A, Valim V, Martins-Filho OA, da Mota LMH. Unbalanced networks and disturbed kinetics of serum soluble mediators associated with distinct disease outcomes in severe COVID-19 patients. Front Immunol 2022; 13:1004023. [DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.1004023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
The present study applied distinct models of descriptive analysis to explore the integrative networks and the kinetic timeline of serum soluble mediators to select a set of systemic biomarkers applicable for the clinical management of COVID-19 patients. For this purpose, a total of 246 participants (82 COVID-19 and 164 healthy controls – HC) were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Serum soluble mediators were quantified by high-throughput microbeads array on hospital admission (D0) and at consecutive timepoints (D1-6 and D7-20). The results reinforce that the COVID-19 group exhibited a massive storm of serum soluble mediators. While increased levels of CCL3 and G-CSF were associated with the favorable prognosis of non-mechanical ventilation (nMV) or discharge, high levels of CXCL10 and IL-6 were observed in patients progressing to mechanical ventilation (MV) or death. At the time of admission, COVID-19 patients presented a complex and robust serum soluble mediator network, with a higher number of strong correlations involving IFN-γ, IL-1Ra and IL-9 observed in patients progressing to MV or death. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrates the ability of serum soluble mediators to cluster COVID-19 from HC. Ascendant fold change signatures and the kinetic timeline analysis further confirmed that the pairs “CCL3 and G-CSF” and “CXCL10 and IL-6” were associated with favorable or poor prognosis, respectively. A selected set of systemic mediators (IL-6, IFN-γ, IL-1Ra, IL-13, PDGF and IL-7) were identified as putative laboratory markers, applicable as complementary records for the clinical management of patients with severe COVID-19.
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Marmor HN, Pike M, Zhao Z(A, Ye F, Deppen SA. Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 related mortality and hospitalization before vaccination: A meta-analysis. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0001187. [PMID: 36962687 PMCID: PMC10021978 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
The literature remains scarce regarding the varying point estimates of risk factors for COVID-19 associated mortality and hospitalization. This meta-analysis investigates risk factors for mortality and hospitalization, estimates individual risk factor contribution, and determines drivers of published estimate variances. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of COVID-19 related mortality and hospitalization risk factors using PRISMA guidelines. Random effects models estimated pooled risks and meta-regression analyses estimated the impact of geographic region and study type. Studies conducted in North America and Europe were more likely to have lower effect sizes of mortality attributed to chronic kidney disease (OR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.09-0.52 and OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.10-0.63, respectively). Retrospective studies were more likely to have decreased effect sizes of mortality attributed to chronic heart failure compared to prospective studies (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44-0.95). Studies from Europe and Asia (OR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.30-0.57 and OR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.28-0.84, respectively) and retrospective studies (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.47-0.73) reported lower hospitalization risk attributed to male sex. Significant geographic population-based variation was observed in published comorbidity related mortality risks while male sex had less of an impact on hospitalization among European and Asian populations or in retrospective studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah N. Marmor
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - Mindy Pike
- Department of Medicine, Division of Epidemiology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, Unites States of America
| | - Zhiguo (Alex) Zhao
- Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - Fei Ye
- Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
| | - Stephen A. Deppen
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, Division of Epidemiology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, Unites States of America
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Ramadori GP. SARS-CoV-2-Infection (COVID-19): Clinical Course, Viral Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and Cause(s) of Death. Med Sci (Basel) 2022; 10:58. [PMID: 36278528 PMCID: PMC9590085 DOI: 10.3390/medsci10040058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Revised: 08/26/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2-infected symptomatic patients often suffer from high fever and loss of appetite which are responsible for the deficit of fluids and of protein intake. Many patients admitted to the emergency room are, therefore, hypovolemic and hypoproteinemic and often suffer from respiratory distress accompanied by ground glass opacities in the CT scan of the lungs. Ischemic damage in the lung capillaries is responsible for the microscopic hallmark, diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) characterized by hyaline membrane formation, fluid invasion of the alveoli, and progressive arrest of blood flow in the pulmonary vessels. The consequences are progressive congestion, increase in lung weight, and progressive hypoxia (progressive severity of ARDS). Sequestration of blood in the lungs worsens hypovolemia and ischemia in different organs. This is most probably responsible for the recruitment of inflammatory cells into the ischemic peripheral tissues, the release of acute-phase mediators, and for the persistence of elevated serum levels of positive acute-phase markers and of hypoalbuminemia. Autopsy studies have been performed mostly in patients who died in the ICU after SARS-CoV-2 infection because of progressive acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In the death certification charts, after respiratory insufficiency, hypovolemic heart failure should be mentioned as the main cause of death.
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50
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Mehta HB, Li S, An H, Goodwin JS, Alexander GC, Segal JB. Development and Validation of the Summary Elixhauser Comorbidity Score for Use With ICD-10-CM-Coded Data Among Older Adults. Ann Intern Med 2022; 175:1423-1430. [PMID: 36095314 PMCID: PMC9894164 DOI: 10.7326/m21-4204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Older adults have many comorbidities contributing to mortality. OBJECTIVE To develop a summary Elixhauser (S-Elixhauser) comorbidity score to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality in older adults using the 38 comorbidities operationalized by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Medicare beneficiaries from 2017 to 2019. PATIENTS Persons hospitalized in 2018 (n = 899 844) and 3 disease-specific hospitalized cohorts. MEASUREMENTS Weights were derived for 38 comorbidities to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality. The S-Elixhauser score was internally validated and calibrated. Individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators (38 comorbidities), the modified application of the AHRQ-derived Elixhauser summary score, the Charlson comorbidity indicators (17 comorbidities), and the Charlson summary score were externally validated. The c-statistic was used to evaluate discrimination of a comorbidity score model. RESULTS The S-Elixhauser score was well calibrated and internally validated, with a c-statistic of 0.705 (95% CI, 0.703 to 0.707) in predicting 30-day mortality, 0.654 (CI, 0.651 to 0.657) for in-hospital mortality, and 0.743 (CI, 0.741 to 0.744) for 1-year mortality. In external validation of other comorbidity indices for 30-day mortality, the c-statistic was 0.711 (CI, 0.709 to 0.713) for the individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators, 0.688 (CI, 0.686 to 0.690) for the AHRQ Elixhauser score, 0.696 (CI, 0.694 to 0.698) for the Charlson comorbidity indicators, and 0.690 (CI, 0.688 to 0.693) for the Charlson summary score. In 3 disease-specific populations, the discrimination of the S-Elixhauser score in predicting 30-day mortality ranged from 0.657 to 0.732. LIMITATION Validation of the S-Elixhauser comorbidity score and head-to-head comparison with other comorbidity scores in an external population are needed to evaluate comparative performance. CONCLUSION The S-Elixhauser comorbidity score is well calibrated and internally validated but its advantage over the AHRQ Elixhauser and Charlson summary scores is unclear. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE National Institute on Aging.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hemalkumar B Mehta
- Center for Drug Safety & Effectiveness and Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland (H.B.M., H.A.)
| | - Shuang Li
- Sealy Center on Aging, Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, Texas (S.L., J.S.G.)
| | - Huijun An
- Center for Drug Safety & Effectiveness and Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland (H.B.M., H.A.)
| | - James S Goodwin
- Sealy Center on Aging, Department of Internal Medicine, The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, Texas (S.L., J.S.G.)
| | - G Caleb Alexander
- Center for Drug Safety & Effectiveness and Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, and Division of General Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (G.C.A., J.B.S.)
| | - Jodi B Segal
- Center for Drug Safety & Effectiveness and Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, and Division of General Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (G.C.A., J.B.S.)
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