Copyright: ©Author(s) 2026.
World J Transl Med. Nov 28, 2026; 12(4): 126295
Published online Nov 28, 2026. doi: 10.5528/wjtm.126295
Published online Nov 28, 2026. doi: 10.5528/wjtm.126295
Table 1 Population, intervention, comparison, outcome, and study design framework for study eligibility
| Criteria | Review stage | Inclusion | Exclusion |
| Study design | Abstract/full article review | Original human studies evaluating the prognostic significance of tumor-derived transcriptomic and/or proteomic biomarkers in PDAC. Eligible designs include prospective or retrospective cohort studies, nested biomarker studies, translational correlative studies embedded within clinical trials, and secondary analyses of publicly available human molecular datasets (e.g., TCGA, ICGC, CPTAC). Eligible only if the study demonstrated an independent prognostic biomarker, i.e. the tumor transcriptomic/proteomic biomarker remained significantly associated with the survival outcome in an adjusted multivariable time-to-event model including clinicopathological covariates | In vitro studies, cell line studies, animal studies, narrative reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, editorials, letters, commentaries, protocols, case reports, case series with insufficient outcome data, and conference abstracts without full-text data |
| Population | Abstract/full article review | Adults (≥ 18 years) with histologically confirmed PDAC, including resectable, locally advanced unresectable, and metastatic disease, provided that survival or other prognostic outcome data were available | Studies focused exclusively on non-PDAC malignancies, including pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms, periampullary cancers, ampullary cancers, cholangiocarcinoma, acinar cell carcinoma, or mixed pancreatic tumor populations where PDAC-specific results cannot be disaggregated |
| Treatment/intervention | Abstract/full article review | Tumor molecular profiling using transcriptomic or proteomic methods, including RNA sequencing, gene expression microarrays, qPCR-based tumor expression profiling, mass spectrometry-based proteomics, RPPA, or molecular signatures derived from transcriptomic/proteomic datasets | Studies based solely on clinical variables, histopathology without molecular profiling, circulating biomarkers only, imaging biomarkers only, radiomics without molecular tumor data, genomic/DNA-only biomarkers without transcriptomic or proteomic readout, or studies lacking explicit biomarker assessment |
| Comparator | Abstract/full article review | Comparisons across biomarker-defined strata, such as high vs low expression, biomarker-positive vs biomarker-negative status, molecular subtype classification, or low- vs high-risk prognostic groups derived from transcriptomic/proteomic signatures | Studies with no biomarker-based stratification or no analysable comparison across molecular groups |
| Outcomes | Abstract/full article review | Primary outcome: OS. Secondary outcomes: PFS, DFS, RFS, CSS, PFI, and other clinically relevant time-to-event prognostic outcomes | Studies not reporting survival, recurrence, or other prognostic time-to-event outcomes; studies reporting only treatment response without survival correlation |
| Biomarker modality and sample type | Abstract/full article review | Eligible only if the biomarker was a transcriptomic (RNA) or proteomic readout measured in PDAC tumor tissue (resection specimen, biopsy, or FFPE/fresh-frozen archival tissue), including tumor tissue profiled by RNA-seq, microarray, qPCR, NanoString, mass spectrometry, RPPA, or IHC-validated protein expression where the protein readout was the tested prognostic marker. Multimodal studies are eligible if tumor transcriptomic/proteomic results are reported separately and can be disaggregated | Not eligible: (1) Liquid biopsy/circulating analytes as the sole readout (ctDNA, cfDNA, CTCs, circulating or exosomal miRNA/mRNA, plasma or serum proteomics, CA19-9 and other serum markers); (2) Histopathology alone (grade, stage, margin status, lymphovascular or perineural invasion, tumor budding, stroma scoring) without a molecular readout; (3) Genomic/DNA-only markers (KRAS, TP53, SMAD4, or CDKN2A mutations; copy number; methylation; TMB; MSI) with no transcript- or protein-level measurement; (4) Imaging/radiomics markers; and (5) Germline variants. These modalities were recorded at screening but excluded from data extraction unless accompanied by a tumor transcriptomic or proteomic result |
Table 2 Prognostic strength of biomarkers in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (57 biomarker studies; 14 interventional trials are presented separately in Table 3)
| Biomarker | Type | Outcome | Multivariable analysis | Independent prognostic association | Validation | Internal descriptive category | Ref. |
| UFM1 | Single protein | OS/PFS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Wang et al[14] |
| 9-gene signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Wang et al[15] |
| 3-gene MRS | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Li et al[16] |
| LMRGS | Multi-gene ML | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Ge et al[17] |
| PCLM-BM signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Zhou et al[18] |
| MCMBP | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Zhang et al[19] |
| APOBEC score | Genomic | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Yu et al[20] |
| JUP | Single gene | OS | Yes | Likely | Limited | B | Yang et al[21] |
| Manganese metabolism signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Xiong et al[22] |
| ALDH family | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Likely | Limited | B | Wu et al[23] |
| EFFscore/P2RY6 | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Wang et al[24] |
| mCAF signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Wang et al[25] |
| 18-gene immune signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Wang et al[26] |
| PCD signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Wang et al[27] |
| ICD signature (AJM1) | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Ma et al[28] |
| MDRG/CITED4 | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Likely | Limited | B | Liu et al[29] |
| IGFBP signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Guan et al[30] |
| A2ML1 subtype model | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Ge et al[31] |
| BM-related signature (LAMA3/ITGA3/ITGB6) | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Ge et al[32] |
| ER stress-related TF signature | Multi-gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Gao et al[33] |
| PLAAT2 | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Chen et al[34] |
| LY6D (stem-like, gastric-like cell-state marker) | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Shi et al[35] |
| Disulfidptosis-related gene signature; key genes: RPN1, PML; Model genes: NDUFA11, MYH14, TRIP6, ACTN1, ANP32E, PML, CD2AP, RPN1 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Pei et al[36] |
| Palmitoylation-related gene signature (7 genes: DCBLD2, CXCL5, ASPH, LAMC2, KRT6A, TOP2A, NPNT); Upstream regulators: ZDHHC family (palmitoyl transferases) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Lu et al[37] |
| 7-gene SASP prognostic signature: ANGPTL4, DKK1, EREG, IGFBP3, IL18, MMP13, PLAU; Plus SASP molecular subtypes | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Kuang et al[38] |
| SEMA3 family genes; 9-gene prognostic signature derived from SEMA3-related DEGs; key driver: SEMA3C | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Jin et al[39] |
| Six-gene mitophagy-related signature (PAPPA, NBPF12, CXCL11, CKLF-CMTM1, CCDC6, AHNAK) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Cai et al[40] |
| Six ICD-associated lncRNA prognostic signature: ZEB2-AS1, AC099792.1, LINC01091, LINC02613, AC005304.3, LINC00705 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Zhu et al[41] |
| 11-gene ITH-related prognostic signature | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Zhao et al[42] |
| Ferroptosis-related 3-gene signature (NOTCH2, KRT18, H1-2); key single biomarker: NOTCH2 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Zhang et al[43] |
| 16-gene DNA damage and repair-related prognostic risk score model; key experimental gene: LY6D | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Zhang et al[44] |
| STING signalling pathway-derived 6-gene prognostic signature: DTX4, IFI16, MAVS, PRKDC, ZDHHC1, IFIT2 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Yu et al[45] |
| SERPINE1 | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Wang et al[46] |
| KRAS protein level, KRAS mRNA expression, KRAS mutation status/subtype | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Stålberg et al[47] |
| RAD51AP1 (DNA repair-associated protein) | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Rezagholizadeh et al[48] |
| Mitochondrial 12-gene prognostic signature; mechanistic emphasis on CAMK2A and THEM4 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Nie et al[49] |
| Innate immune barrier gene signature (84 genes); key genes: UBASH3B, ITGB6, COL17A1, MMP28, DIAPH3 (focus on UBASH3B) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Luo et al[50] |
| P4HA1, CCDC148, UCA1, TMPRSS11E + tumour stage | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Lin et al[51] |
| KRAS mutational status as key biomarker; integrated molecular classifier of KRAS wild-type vs KRAS-mutant classical vs KRAS-mutant basal-like; exploratory HRD and other somatic mutations | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Internal | B+ | Lansbergen et al[52] |
| PAUF (ZG16B-related protein product) | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Kim et al[53] |
| Six BA-related prognostic genes: SERPINB5, CALU, TFRC, LY6D, SFRP1, GBP2 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Kang et al[54] |
| TIPARP (PARP7) expression | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Jiang et al[55] |
| Microenvironmental, stromal, and immune markers, including MFAP4, EGR3, KRT8, monocyte infiltration, CD68+ macrophages, CD3/CD4/CD8 T-cell infiltration | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Han et al[56] |
| Hypoxia score; 13-gene signature (including LYZ, PLAU, INSIG2, and KRTCAP2) | Multi-gene signature | OS/PFS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Ge et al[57] |
| CSCLPI genes (SHCBP1, CEP55, GMNN, CDCA5, FAM111B) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Limited | B | Fang et al[58] |
| 23 ISGS-based features in risk score model | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Fang et al[59] |
| Cuproptosis-related lncRNA prognostic model; key lncRNAs: LINC00900 and AC078820.1 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Partial | B+ | Duo et al[60] |
| ST3GAL2, SLCO1B3, PTGES, PRKACA | Multi-gene signature | OS/PFS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Deng et al[61] |
| DCBLD2, OCIAD2, SAMD9 | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Cui et al[62] |
| Disulfidptosis-related prognostic signature (8-gene signature: SLC3A2, HMGA1, S100A2, DUSP5, SPRR1B, MET, CREB5, MACROD2) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Cui et al[63] |
| M2 macrophage-related 6-gene prognostic signature: CCL2, CD9, FBP1, LIMS1, LYZ, TGFBI; M2/TAM biology and TNFRSF12A also highlighted | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Partial | B+ | Chen et al[64] |
| 20-protein diagnostic panel; 4 proteomic prognostic subtypes; 18-protein prognostic risk score (PURB, SDCBP2, CD2BP2, GALM, SERPINA3, OAS3, FAN1, ZPR1, KRT2, NUDT2, SMNDC1, SERPINA4, CUTA, WDR36, POSTN, CLEC11A, PEX14, PI4KA) | Multi-protein signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A | Aref et al[65] |
| Complement pathway genes (C1R, C1S, C3, C4B, C7) in tumour microenvironment | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Partial | B+ | Zhang et al[66] |
| 13-gene autophagy-related signature (EIF4EBP1, HDAC6, GABARAP, CASP4, ATG16 L2, BCL2 L1, BAG3, ATG4B, TNFSF10, PTK6, ITGA3, BIRC5, BAK1) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Wang et al[67] |
| Fibroblast-related 14-gene prognostic signature | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | Multi-cohort | A | Wang et al[68] |
| ANP32E | Single gene | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Liu et al[69] |
| Cuproptosis-related signature score (MIR3677, AC068620.2, UPK2, LDHAP7, FAM83A) | Multi-gene signature | OS | Yes | Yes | External | A- | Ge et al[70] |
Table 3 Characteristics and reported outcomes of interventional trials included for clinical context in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
| NCT | Study design | n | Intervention | Stage | Primary outcome | Result | Secondary outcomes | Key finding | Ref. |
| NCT01726582 | Single-arm | 130 | Personalised perioperative treatment (chemo/CRT/surgery) | Resectable/borderline resectable | Completion of surgery (feasibility) | 108/130 (83.1%) | OS: 45 months vs 11 months; PFS: 36/130 (27.7%); Biomarker: 93/130 (71.5%); CR: 0/107; Near CR: 17/107; PR: 44/107; Poor: 42/107 | The study demonstrated a high rate of completion of surgery (83.1%) | Tsai et al[71] |
| NCT00536874 | Single-arm | 35 | Gem + oxaliplatin (neoadjuvant) | Resectable | 18-month OS rate | 63% (95%CI: 45-76) | OS: 39.6 months; PR: 4/35; SD: 28/35; PD: 3/35; CEA Δ: -5.1%; CA19-9 Δ: -25.6% | The 18-month OS rate was 63% (95%CI: 45%-76%) | O’Reilly et al[72] |
| NCT01926197 | Randomised | 13/12 | mFOLFIRINOX vs mFOLFIRINOX + SBRT | Locally advanced (unresectable) | PFS (median) | 6.5 months vs 8.4 months | Local PFS: 6.5 vs 8.4; PFS 1 year: 5/13 vs 2/12; MFS: 12.9 vs 10.8; OS: 12.9 vs 13.4; GI toxicity events: 16 vs 19 | Median PFS was numerically higher in the SBRT arm (8.4 months vs 6.5 months) | Vitzthum[73] |
| NCT00810719 | Single-arm | 30 | Gem + erlotinib | Advanced/metastatic | PFS (median) | 2.07 months (1.87-5.50) | ORR: 11%; OS: 5.67 months (2.83-11.87) | The observed median PFS of 2.07 months indicated limited disease control | Semrad et al[74] |
| NCT00769483 | Phase I/II, non-randomised, multi-arm | Approximately 15/arm | MK-0646 + Gem ± erlotinib | Stage IV (metastatic) | MTD + PFS (time to progression/death) | MTD: 10 mg/kg (Gem), 5 mg/kg (Gem + erlotinib); PFS: Approximately 1.8-2.0 months | OS: 5.7-10.4 months; ORR: Approximately 13%-17%; Toxicity: High | The study achieved its dose-escalation objective (MTD), but showed limited efficacy with median PFS of approximately 2 months | Abdel-Wahab et al[75] |
| NCT00365144 | Single-arm | 36 | Bevacizumab + erlotinib | Metastatic, Gem-refractory | OS rate (6 months) + safety | 8/36 (22.2%) | ORR: 1/36 (2.8%); TTP: 40 days (35-41); CA19-9 decline ≥ 25%: 4/26 (15.4%) | Low 6-month OS rate (22.2%) | Ko et al[76] |
| NCT00550836 | Randomised | 46/46 | Gem + erlotinib vs + panitumumab | Metastatic | OS (median; arm A vs arm B) | 4.2 months vs 8.3 months; P = 0.36 | ORR: 8.7% vs 6.5%; PFS: 2.0 months vs 3.6 months, P = 0.419; TTF: 2.0 months vs 3.8 months, P = 0.36; G3+ AE: 41/46 vs 41/46; G4+ AE: 15/46 vs 14/46 | Primary endpoint was not met | Halfdanarson et al[77] |
| NCT03941093 | Randomised, double-blind | 143/141 | Pamrevlumab + G/nab-P or FOLFIRINOX vs placebo + G/nab-P or FOLFIRINOX | Locally advanced, unresectable | OS | 17.25 months vs 17.94 months; HR 1.08 (0.83-1.41); P = 0.5487 | EFS: 5.72 months vs 5.78 months; PFS: 9.36 months vs 9.40 months; ORR: 43/143 (30.1%) vs 64/141 (45.4%) | Primary endpoint not met | Picozzi et al[78] |
| NCT00408564 | Single-arm | 38-39 | Gem + oxaliplatin + cetuximab, reassessment, surgery or RT/capecitabine | Locally advanced, unresectable, nonmetastatic | 6-month PFS rate | 82% (70%-95%) | G3-4 AE: 9/39 (23.1%); OS rate: 49% (36%-68%); ORR: 5/38 (13.2%) | High 6-month PFS rate | Medical University of South Carolina[79] |
| NCT00521404 | Single-arm | 61 | CS-1008 (anti-DR5) + Gem | Unresectable/metastatic (chemo-naive) | 16-week PFS rate | 52.5% (39.3%-64.1%) | PFS: 3 months 59%, 6 months 34.4%; OS: 6 months 55.7%, 12 months 24.6%; ORR: 5/61 (8.2%); SD: 28/61 (45.9%) | Modest activity | Sankyo[80] |
| NCT00417976 | Single-arm | 39-40 | Bevacizumab + Gem + infusional 5-FU | Stage III-IV | 6-month PFS rate | 49% | ORR: 12/40 (30%); SD: 18/40 (45%); PD: 10/40 (25%) | Moderate activity | Bekaii-Saab[81] |
| NCT00499486 | Single-arm | 31 | Sirolimus monotherapy | Advanced PDAC, post-Gem (refractory) | 6-month OS rate | 26% | CR + PR: 0%. SD: 4 patients (approximately 13%). | mTOR inhibition alone is insufficient in PDAC | Garrido-Laguna et al[82] |
| NCT01560949 | Single-arm | 33 | mFOLFIRINOX, Gem-based CRT, surgery | Borderline resectable/high-risk resectable | Resectability rate | 15/33 (45.5%) | R0: 10/15 (66.7%); DFS: 11.1 months (5.8-NA); OS: 24.0 months (16.2-29.6); SMAD4+ pre: 4/15 (26.7%); SMAD4+ post: 4/15 (26.7%); Local recurrence: 0/15; Distant recurrence: 10/15 (66.7%) | Moderate conversion to surgery; distant failure predominates | M.D. Anderson Cancer Center[83] |
| NCT01146054 | Single-arm | 49 | SBRT + Gem | Locally advanced, unresectable, nonmetastatic | Late GI toxicity ≥ grade 2 at 1 year | 5/49 (10.2%) | Acute GI toxicity: 14/49 (28.6%); PFS: 7.8 months (5.8-10.2); OS: 13.9 months (10.2-16.7); FFLP: 0.78 (0.60-0.89) | Low late GI toxicity; local control > systemic control | Koong[84] |
Table 4 Comparison of prognostic performance between the initial biologically derived signature and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-derived 5-gene signature in The Cancer Genome Atlas pancreatic adenocarcinoma cohort
| Prognostic model | Cox model | Hazard ratio | P value | Harrell’s C-index | 95%CI |
| Initial biologically derived signature | Univariable | 1.13 | 0.239 | 0.522 | 0.472-0.579 |
| Multivariable | 1.08 | 0.480 | 0.563 | 0.498-0.626 | |
| LASSO-derived 5-gene signature | Univariable | 6.41 | < 0.001 | 0.587 | 0.526-0.634 |
| Multivariable | 6.13 | < 0.001 | 0.599 | 0.534-0.653 |
Table 5 Calibration, overall prediction accuracy and baseline survival for the initial biologically derived signature and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-derived 5-gene signature in The Cancer Genome Atlas pancreatic adenocarcinoma derivation cohort and the Gene Expression Omnibus dataset GSE71729 validation cohort
| Cohort | Model | Calibration slope | Brier score at 1/2/3 year | Integrated Brier score, 0-3 years | Baseline survival at 1/2/3 years (%) |
| TCGA-PAAD derivation cohort (n = 177, 93 events) | LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, univariable | 1.861 | 0.183/0.203/0.171 | 0.168 | 76.9/42.0/35.4 |
| LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, multivariable | 1.817 | 0.163 | |||
| Initial biologically derived signature, univariable | 0.124 | 0.185/0.240/0.225 | 0.186 | 75.5/40.5/35.2 | |
| Initial biologically derived signature, multivariable | 0.173 | ||||
| GSE71729 validation cohort (n = 125, 84 events) | LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, univariable | 0.154 | 0.234/0.213/0.163 | 0.189 | 64.0/33.3/22.2 |
| LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, subtype-adjusted | 0.223 | 0.177 |
- Citation: Tarara V, Panteris E, Varlamis S, Andreadou E, Pessach I, Bobos M, Chatzidimitriou M, Mitka S, Papoutsi A, Eleftheriou P, Skepastianos P, Karamitrousis E. Prognostic biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: A contemporary systematic review and modelling study. World J Transl Med 2026; 12(4): 126295
- URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/2220-6132/full/v12/i4/126295.htm
- DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.5528/wjtm.126295