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Zhang N, Wang Y, Zhang H, Fang H, Li X, Li Z, Huan Z, Zhang Z, Wang Y, Li W, Gong Z. Application of interpretable machine learning algorithms to predict macroangiopathy risk in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Sci Rep 2025; 15:16393. [PMID: 40355529 PMCID: PMC12069545 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-01161-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2024] [Accepted: 05/05/2025] [Indexed: 05/14/2025] Open
Abstract
Macrovascular complications are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), yet early diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in this population remains clinically challenging. This study aims to develop a machine learning model that can accurately predict diabetic macroangiopathy in Chinese patients. A retrospective cross-sectional analytical study was conducted on 1566 hospitalized patients with T2DM. Feature selection was performed using recursive feature elimination (RFE) within the mlr3 framework. Model performance was benchmarked using 29 machine learning (ML) models, with the ranger model selected for its superior performance. Hyperparameters were optimized through grid search and 5-fold cross-validation. Model interpretability was enhanced using SHAP values and PDPs. An external validation set of 106 patients was used to test the model. Key predictive variables identified included the duration of T2DM, age, fibrinogen, and serum urea nitrogen. The predictive model for macroangiopathy was established and showed good discrimination performance with an accuracy of 0.716 and an AUC of 0.777 in the training set. Validation on the external dataset confirmed its robustness with an AUC of 0.745. This study establish an approach based on machine learning algorithm in features selection and the development of prediction tools for diabetic macroangiopathy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ningjie Zhang
- Department of Blood Transfusion, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Yan Wang
- Department of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, NO. 1, Jianshe East Road, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, China
| | - Hui Zhang
- 'The 14th Five-Year Plan' Application Characteristic Discipline of Hunan Province (Clinical Medicine), Changsha, China
- Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Agricultural Biogenomics, Changsha, China
- Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Changsha Medical University, Changsha, China
| | - Huilong Fang
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou, 423000, China
| | - Xinyi Li
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou, 423000, China
| | - Zhifen Li
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou, 423000, China
| | - Zhenghang Huan
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou, 423000, China
| | - Zugui Zhang
- Institute for Research on Equity and Community Health, Christiana Care Health System, Newark, USA
| | - Yongjun Wang
- Department of Blood Transfusion, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Wei Li
- Department of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, NO. 1, Jianshe East Road, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, China.
| | - Zheng Gong
- Sino-Cellbiomed Institutes of Medical Cell & Pharmaceutical Proteins Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China.
- Department of Basic Medicine, Xiangnan University, 889 Chenzhou Avenue, Chenzhou, Hunan, China.
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Tran TTT, Ha TK, Phan NM, Le MV, Nguyen TH. Detection of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with type 2 diabetes by cystatin C-based equations. World J Nephrol 2024; 13:95761. [PMID: 39723358 PMCID: PMC11572656 DOI: 10.5527/wjn.v13.i4.95761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2024] [Revised: 09/15/2024] [Accepted: 10/15/2024] [Indexed: 11/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aging population is a significant issue in Viet Nam and across the globe. Elderly individuals are at higher risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), especially those with diabetes. Several studies found that the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) determined using creatinine-based equations was not as accurate as that determined using cystatin C-based equations. Cystatin C-based equations may be beneficial in elderly patients with an age-associated decline in kidney function. Early determination of eGFR decline and associated factors would aid in appropriate interventions to improve kidney function in elderly patients with diabetes. AIM To determine the utility of cystatin C-based equations in early detection of eGFR decline and to explore factors associated with eGFR decline in elderly patients with diabetes. METHODS This cross-sectional study included 93 participants aged ≥ 60 years evaluated in Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital between October 2022 and July 2023, including 47 and 46 participants with and without diabetes respectively, according to the American Diabetes Association criteria for diabetes. The kappa coefficient, Student's t, Mann-Whitney, χ 2, Pearson's correlation, multivariate logistic regression, and multiple linear regression analyses were employed. RESULTS The eGFRs were lower with the cystatin C-based equations than with the creatinine-based equations. Good agreement was found between the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) 2021 creatinine-cystatin C equations (kappa = 0.66). In the diabetes group, 30% of the participants had low eGFR. Both plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin were associated with an increased risk of eGFR decline (P < 0.05) and negatively correlated with eGFR (P = 0.001). By multivariate logistic regression, total cholesterol, and exercise were independently associated with low eGFR. By multiple linear regression, higher plasma glucose levels were correlated with lower eGFR (P = 0.026, r = -0.366). CONCLUSION Cystatin C-based equations were superior in the early detection of a decline in eGFR, and the MDRD equation may be considered as an alternative to the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine-cystatin C equation. Exercise, plasma glucose, and total cholesterol were independently associated with eGFR in patients with diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tam Thai Thanh Tran
- Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Can Tho 900000, Viet Nam
- Department of Functional Exploration, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital, Can Tho 900000, Viet Nam
| | - Tien Kim Ha
- School of Medicine and Pharmacy, The University of Da Nang, Da Nang 550000, Viet Nam
| | - Nhut Minh Phan
- Faculty of Medicine, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Can Tho 900000, Viet Nam
| | - Minh Van Le
- Faculty of Medicine, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Can Tho 900000, Viet Nam
| | - Tin Hoang Nguyen
- Department of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Can Tho 900000, Viet Nam
- Department of Functional Exploration, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital, Can Tho 900000, Viet Nam
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Fenta ET, Eshetu HB, Kebede N, Bogale EK, Zewdie A, Kassie TD, Anagaw TF, Mazengia EM, Gelaw SS. Prevalence and predictors of chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients worldwide, systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetol Metab Syndr 2023; 15:245. [PMID: 38012781 PMCID: PMC10683270 DOI: 10.1186/s13098-023-01202-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diabetes is a complicated, chronic condition that requires ongoing medical attention as well as multiple risk-reduction measures beyond glucose control. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is highly variable in different parts of the world due to various environmental, ethnic, socioeconomic, and rural-urban differences. Diabetes is the leading cause of CKD. This study aimed to estimate the global prevalence of CKD and its associated factors among type 2 diabetes(T2DM) patients, provide scientific evidence for a better understanding of the burden of CKD among diabetes mellitus type 2 patients, and design interventional strategies. METHODS Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) checklist guideline was followed for this review and meta-analysis. The electronic databases (Pub Med, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and grey literature) were searched to retrieve articles by using keywords. Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument was used to assess the quality of studies. The meta-analysis was conducted using STATA 17 software. The Meta logistic regression was computed to present the pooled prevalence and Odds ratio (OR) of the determinate factors with a 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS In this systematic review and meta-analysis 20 studies were done in 13 different countries. The pooled magnitude of chronic kidney disease among type 2 DM patients was 27% (95% CI 21%, 33%). The prevalence of chronic kidney disease differs across countries, with the maximum in the USA and the lowest in the United Arab Emirates. Patients with CKD have an elevated risk of severe renal and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, and, more recently, non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists are among the medications that have been demonstrated to slow the progression of CKD. In this systematic review and meta-analysis increased age, obesity, having a history of type 2 diabetes mellitus, smoking history, presence of hypertension, and cardiac heart disease were factors significantly associated with the presence of chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients was high based on the included 20 articles. The review reported that old age, hypertension, cardiac disease, smoking, obesity, and duration of diabetes mellitus was predictor variable for chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients. Therefore, in order to lower the morbidity and mortality from chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients, it is advised to develop both preventive and curative intervention strategies, such as raising awareness, creating a supportive environment, and prescribing appropriate medication at an early stage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eneyew Talie Fenta
- Department of public health, college of medicine and health sciences, Injibara University, Injibara, Ethiopia.
| | - Habitu Birhan Eshetu
- Department of Health Promotion and Health Behavior, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, PO. Box.196, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Natnael Kebede
- Department of Health Promotion, School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Eyob Ketema Bogale
- Health Promotion and Behavioral science department, College of medicine and health science, Bahir Dar, Houston, Ethiopia
| | - Amare Zewdie
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Wolkite University, Wolkite, Ethiopia
| | - Tadele Derbew Kassie
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Debre Markos university, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
| | - Tadele Fentabil Anagaw
- Health Promotion and Behavioral science department, College of medicine and health science, Bahir Dar, Houston, Ethiopia
| | - Elyas Melaku Mazengia
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Debre Markos university, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
| | - Sintayehu Shiferaw Gelaw
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Debre Markos university, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
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Ma N, Zhang Y. Effects of resveratrol therapy on glucose metabolism, insulin resistance, inflammation, and renal function in the elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A randomized controlled clinical trial protocol. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e30049. [PMID: 35960095 PMCID: PMC9371579 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000030049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diabetes mellitus is a spectrum of metabolic disorders characterized by hyperglycemia and shows a growing global public health problem in the elderly. Resveratrol presents antiaging, anti-inflammatory, antitumor antioxidant, and cardioprotective activities. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ameliorative effects of resveratrol on blood glucose, insulin metabolism, lipid profile, renal function, inflammation, and nutrient sensing systems in the elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS The study is a single-blind, parallel-group, randomized controlled clinical trial consisting of a 6-month treatment period. A total of 472 elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus were enrolled, and included participants will be randomized into 2 groups: resveratrol (n = 242) and placebo (n = 230). The clinical efficacy and changes in clinical parameters in each group will be measured at the indicated time. Clinical parameters included blood glucose, insulin resistance index, blood lipid index, proinflammatory cytokines, renal function, and nutrient sensing systems. RESULTS Resveratrol treatment greatly improved glucose metabolism, insulin tolerance, and insulin metabolism compared to placebo. Resveratrol relieved symptoms through enhancing nutrient sensing systems, which in turn reduced production and activity of glucose-6-phosphatase. Compared with placebo, resveratrol treatment significantly decreased proinflammatory cytokines glycated hemoglobin/hemoglobin A1c, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and interleukin-1beta in the elderly diabetes. Resveratrol treatment decreased blood glucose parameters, improved the lipid profile (total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides), and renal function compared to placebo. CONCLUSION In conclusion, resveratrol treatment improves inflammation, renal function, blood glucose parameters, inflammation, insulin resistance, and nutrient sensing systems in the elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, indicating resveratrol may be a potential therapeutic drug for the treatment of the elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Ma
- Geriatric Ward, The First Hospital of Harbin, Harbin, China
- *Correspondence: Nan Ma, Geriatric Ward, The First Hospital of Harbin, No. 151, Tiandi Street, Daoli District, Harbin 150010, China (e-mail: )
| | - Youzhi Zhang
- Department of Emergency, Affiliated Hospital of Sichuan Nursing Vocational College (The Third People’s Hospital of Sichuan Province), Chengdu, China
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Shibata Y, Yamazaki M, Kitahara J, Okubo Y, Oiwa A, Sato A, Komatsu M. Changes in serum uric acid levels as a predictor of future decline in renal function in older adults with type 2 diabetes. Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e27420. [PMID: 34622850 PMCID: PMC8500559 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000027420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2021] [Accepted: 09/13/2021] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Given that factors affecting renal function remain unknown, this study aimed to identify key predictors of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) deterioration, which is a representative of renal function decline in older adults with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). In an exploratory prospective observational study, we enrolled 268 Japanese people with T2DM aged ≥20 years who were followed up at Shinshu University Hospital. Among those, 112 eligible individuals aged ≥65 years were included in the present study. Factors associated with 3-year changes in eGFR (ΔeGFR) and eGFR deterioration (ΔeGFR < 0) were identified using bivariate and multivariable analyses. Regarding baseline values of the subjects, the mean age was 73.5 years, mean blood pressure was 131/74 mm Hg, mean hemoglobin A1c was 7.1%, mean eGFR was 62.0 mL/min/1.73 m2, mean urinary albumin excretion was 222.6 mg/gCre, and mean serum uric acid (UA) was 5.5 mg/mL. In bivariate analysis, the 3-year change in UA (ΔUA) levels was significantly correlated with ΔeGFR (r = -0.491, P < .001), but the baseline UA was not (r = 0.073, P = .444). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that ΔUA was a significant negative predictor of ΔeGFR in the model that included sex, age, body mass index, serum albumin, and ΔUA as explanatory variables. Moreover, multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that ΔUA had a positive association with ΔeGFR <0 (odds ratio 2.374; 95% confidence interval 1.294-4.357). Thus, future renal function decline can be predicted by ΔUA but not by baseline UA in older adults with T2DM. Further research is needed to determine whether lowering the serum UA level can prevent eGFR decline.
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Abdelhafiz AH. Diabetic Kidney Disease in Older People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Improving Prevention and Treatment Options. Drugs Aging 2020; 37:567-584. [PMID: 32495289 DOI: 10.1007/s40266-020-00773-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
Age-related metabolic and renal changes predispose older people to an increased risk of diabetes mellitus and diabetic kidney disease, respectively. As the prevalence of the ageing population is increasing, because of increased life expectancy, the prevalence of older people with diabetic kidney disease is likely to increase. Diabetic kidney disease is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes and increased costs to healthcare systems. The management includes promotion of a healthy lifestyle and control of cardiovascular risk factors such as hyperglycaemia, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Older people are a heterogeneous group of people from a community-living fit and independent person to a fully dependent individual residing in a care home. Therefore, management in this age group should be based on a patient's functional level adopting tight metabolic control in the fit individual and relaxed targets in the frail person. However, despite the maximum available therapy, a significant number of patients with diabetic kidney disease still progress to renal failure and experience adverse cardiac outcomes. Therefore, future research is required to explore methods of early detection of diabetic kidney disease and to investigate novel therapeutic interventions to further improve the outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed H Abdelhafiz
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, Rotherham General Hospital, Moorgate Road, Rotherham, S60 2UD, UK.
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