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Aizawa T, Nagao T, Oda Y, Nakano S, Ito K, Shirai Y, Hosoya N, Sawasaki K, Arai J, Fujita S, Muto M, Oda T, Maekawa Y. Short- and long-term performance of risk calculation tools for mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome. Front Cardiovasc Med 2024; 11:1388686. [PMID: 38867848 PMCID: PMC11168304 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2024.1388686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2024] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 06/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The mortality rate of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains high. Therefore, patients with ACS should undergo early risk stratification, for which various risk calculation tools are available. However, it remains uncertain whether the predictive performance varies over time between risk calculation tools for different target periods. This study aimed to compare the predictive performance of risk calculation tools in estimating short- and long-term mortality risks in patients with ACS, while considering different observation periods using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Methods This study included 404 consecutive patients with ACS who underwent coronary angiography at our hospital from March 2017 to January 2021. The ACTION and GRACE scores for short-term risk stratification purposes and CRUSADE scores for long-term risk stratification purposes were calculated for all participants. The participants were followed up for 36 months to assess mortality. Using time-dependent ROC analysis, we evaluated the area under the curve (AUC) of the ACTION, CRUSADE, and GRACE scores at 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. Results Sixty-six patients died during the observation periods. The AUCs at 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of the ACTION score were 0.942, 0.925, 0.889, 0.856, and 0.832; those of the CRUSADE score were 0.881, 0.883, 0.862, 0.876, and 0.862; and those of the GRACE score 0.949, 0.928, 0.888, 0.875, and 0.860, respectively. Conclusions The ACTION and GRACE scores were excellent risk stratification tools for mortality in the short term. The prognostic performance of each risk score was almost similar in the long term, but the CRUSADE score might be a superior risk stratification tool in the longer term than 3 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takatoku Aizawa
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Tomoaki Nagao
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Yusuke Oda
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Suguru Nakano
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Kazuki Ito
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Yusuke Shirai
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Natsuko Hosoya
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Kohei Sawasaki
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Junji Arai
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Shinya Fujita
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Masahiro Muto
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Teiji Oda
- Department of Cardiology, Hamamatsu Medical Center, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Yuichiro Maekawa
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine Ⅲ, Hamamatsu University of Medicine, Hamamatsu, Japan
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Decorads CE, Lambert A, Roch V, Imbert L, Perrin M, Claudin M, Doyen M, Citerne Q, Lamiral Z, Peiffert D, Henneton C, Marie PY. Association between baseline hemodynamic indices, cardiotoxicity risk, and survival in women with breast cancer. J Nucl Cardiol 2024; 35:101849. [PMID: 38508443 DOI: 10.1016/j.nuclcard.2024.101849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2024] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 03/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The outcome of breast cancer (BrCa) women monitored by low-dose equilibrium radionuclide angiography (ERNA) remains challenging to predict. AIM This study aims to determine whether heart rate (HR)/blood pressure (BP) ratio-based indexes, previously confirmed to predict outcomes of various diseases, also predict BrCa-therapy-related cardiotoxicity and survival. METHODS Predictors of cardiotoxicity and survival were determined among pre-therapy variables, including shock index ([SI HR/systolic BP) and age-adjusted SI (ASI), in a female BrCa cohort with normal baseline ERNA-left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). RESULTS We included 274 women with a median age of 54.8 (interquartile range: 45.5-65.4) years, 271 treated with anthracyclines and 96 with trastuzumab. During a median follow-up of 25.9 (18.6-33.5) months, 31 women developed cardiotoxicity (LVEF: <50% and ≥10% drop from baseline), and 25 died. Baseline ASI was a multivariate predictor (p < 0.001) of (i) cardiotoxicity, in association with trastuzumab treatment (p = 0.010), and LV end-diastolic volume (p = 0.001) and (ii) survival, in association with metastasis (p < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.008). Cardiotoxicity poorly impacted survival (p = 0.064). The 36-month cardiotoxicity and mortality rates were markedly higher for patients in the upper half of baseline ASI values (ASI: >30 years min-1.mmHg-1, 16.5% and 20.7%, respectively) than in the lower half (7.6% and 4.5%, respectively, both p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS In BrCa women with normal baseline ERNA-LVEF, HR/BP ratio-based indexes unmask hemodynamic profiles associated with increased cardiotoxicity risk and decreased survival, highlighting the need for a comprehensive assessment of cardiac- and vascular-related risks in BrCa women monitored by ERNA. CONDENSED ABSTRACT In a cohort of 274 women BrCa women who were monitored by ERNA for potentially cardiotoxic drugs (anthracyclines or trastuzumab) and who had no history of cardiac disease and a normal left ventricular ejection fraction before treatment, baseline indexes based on HR/BP ratios unmask hemodynamic profiles strongly associated with an increased risk of cardiotoxicity and subsequently decreased survival. Although further validations in other cohorts are needed, these findings highlight the need for a more comprehensive assessment of the cardiac- and vascular-related risk in BrCa women monitored by ERNA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles-Edouard Decorads
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France
| | - Aurélien Lambert
- Institut de cancérologie de Lorraine, Department of Medical Oncology, F-54500, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France
| | - Véronique Roch
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France
| | - Laetitia Imbert
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France; Université de Lorraine, INSERM, UMR1254, 54000, Nancy, France
| | - Mathieu Perrin
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France
| | - Marine Claudin
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France
| | - Matthieu Doyen
- Université de Lorraine, INSERM, UMR1254, 54000, Nancy, France
| | - Quentin Citerne
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France
| | - Zohra Lamiral
- Université de Lorraine, CHRU-Nancy, INSERM, CIC 1433, Nancy, France
| | - Didier Peiffert
- Institut de cancérologie de Lorraine, Department of Radiation Oncology, F-54500, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France
| | - Catherine Henneton
- Institut de cancérologie de Lorraine, Department of Medical Oncology, F-54500, Vandœuvre-lès-Nancy, France
| | - Pierre-Yves Marie
- Université de Lorraine, Department of Nuclear Medicine and Nancyclotep Imaging Platform, CHRU Nancy, F-54000, Nancy, France; Université de Lorraine, INSERM, UMR 1116, 54000, Nancy, France.
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Chen SH, Chang HC, Chiu PW, Hong MY, Lin IC, Yang CC, Hsu CT, Ling CW, Chang YH, Cheng YY, Lin CH. Triage body temperature and its influence on patients with acute myocardial infarction. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2023; 23:388. [PMID: 37542240 PMCID: PMC10403904 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-023-03372-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fever can occur after acute myocardial infarction (MI). The influence of body temperature (BT) after hospital arrival on patients with acute MI has rarely been investigated. METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with acute MI in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary teaching hospital between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2020 were enrolled. Based on the tympanic temperature obtained at the ED triage, patients were categorized into normothermic (35.5°C-37.5°C), hypothermic (< 35.5°C), or hyperthermic (> 37.5°C) groups. The primary outcome was in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA), while the secondary outcomes were adverse events. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. RESULTS There were 440 enrollees; significant differences were found among the normothermic (n = 369, 83.9%), hypothermic (n = 27, 6.1%), and hyperthermic (n = 44, 10.0%) groups in the triage respiratory rate (median [IQR]) (20.0 [4.0] cycles/min versus 20.0 [4.0] versus 20.0 [7.5], p = 0.009), triage heart rate (88.0 [29.0] beats/min versus 82.0 [28.0] versus 102.5 [30.5], p < 0.001), presence of ST-elevation MI (42.0% versus 66.7% versus 31.8%, p = 0.014), need for cardiac catheterization (87.3% versus 85.2% versus 72.7%, p = 0.034), initial troponin T level (165.9 [565.2] ng/L versus 49.1 [202.0] versus 318.8 [2002.0], p = 0.002), peak troponin T level (343.8 [1405.9] ng/L versus 218.7 [2318.2] versus 832.0 [2640.8], p = 0.003), length of ICU stay (2.0 [3.0] days versus 3.0 [8.0] versus 3.0 [9.5], p = 0.006), length of hospital stay (4.0 [4.5] days versus 6.0 [15.0] versus 10.5 [10.8], p < 0.001), and infection during hospitalization (19.8% versus 29.6% versus 63.6%, p < 0.001) but not in IHCA (7.6% versus 14.8% versus 11.4%, p = 0.323) or any adverse events (50.9% versus 48.1% versus 63.6%, p = 0.258). Multivariable analysis showed no significant association of triage BT with IHCA or any major complication. CONCLUSION Triage BT did not show a significant association with IHCA or adverse events in patients with acute MI. However, triage BT could be associated with different clinical presentations and should warrant further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shih-Hao Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Hung-Chieh Chang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Po-Wei Chiu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Yuan Hong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - I-Chen Lin
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Chih-Chun Yang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Te Hsu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Wei Ling
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Ying-Hsin Chang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan
| | - Ya-Yun Cheng
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Sun Yat-sen University, 804, No.70, Lien-hai Rd, Kaohsiung, 804, Taiwan.
| | - Chih-Hao Lin
- Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 70403, Taiwan.
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Moriwaki K, Kurita T, Hirota Y, Ito H, Ishise T, Fujimoto N, Masuda J, Ishikura K, Tanigawa T, Yamada N, Kawasaki A, Dohi K. Prognostic Impact of Prehospital Simple Risk Index in Patients With ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction. Circ J 2023; 87:629-639. [PMID: 36928102 DOI: 10.1253/circj.cj-22-0795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The simple risk index recorded in the emergency room (ER-SRI), which is calculated using the formula (heart rate × [age / 10]2) / systolic blood pressure, was shown to be able to stratify the prognosis in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. However, the prognostic impact of the prehospital simple risk index (Pre-SRI) remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS This study enrolled 2,047 STEMI patients from the Mie Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) registry. Pre-SRI was calculated using prehospital data and ER-SRI was calculated using emergency room data. The primary endpoint was 30-day all-cause mortality. The cut-off values of Pre-SRI and ER-SRI for predicting 30-day mortality were 34.8 and 34.1, with accuracies of 0.816 and 0.826 based on receiver operating characteristic analyses (P<0.001 for both). There was no difference in the accuracy of the 2 indices. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that a High Pre-SRI (≥34) was a significant independent predictor of 30-day mortality. With combined Pre-SRI and ER-SRI assessment, patients with High Pre-SRI/High ER-SRI showed significantly higher mortality than those with High Pre-SRI/Low ER-SRI, Low Pre-SRI/High ER-SRI, and Low Pre-SRI/Low ER-SRI (P<0.001). The addition of High Pre-SRI to High ER-SRI showed incremental prognostic value of the Pre-SRI. CONCLUSIONS Pre-SRI can identify high-risk STEMI patients at an early stage and combined assessment with Pre-SRI and ER-SRI could be of incremental prognostic value for risk stratification in STEMI patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keishi Moriwaki
- Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
| | - Tairo Kurita
- Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
| | - Yumi Hirota
- Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
| | - Hiromasa Ito
- Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
| | - Takuo Ishise
- Department of Cardiology, Okanami General Hospital
| | - Naoki Fujimoto
- Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
| | - Jun Masuda
- Department of Cardiology, Mie Prefectural General Medical Center
| | - Ken Ishikura
- Emergency Critical Care Center, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
| | | | | | | | - Kaoru Dohi
- Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine
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5
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Swieszkowski SP, Costa D, Aladio JM, Matsudo M, Pérez de la Hoz A, Castro M, González D, Brignoli A, Pons S, Scazziota A, Pérez de la Hoz R. Neurohumoral response and stress hyperglycemia in myocardial infarction. J Diabetes Complications 2022; 36:108339. [PMID: 36345108 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2022.108339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2022] [Revised: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 10/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hyperglycemia is associated with an increased risk for death in acute coronary syndromes. This could be related to underlying glucose metabolism abnormalities or be caused by a counter-regulatory stress response. However, there is a paucity of data on the relationship between stress hormones, hyperglycemia, and clinical outcomes in myocardial infarction. METHODS Single-center, prospective, observational study. Patients admitted to the coronary care unit with a diagnosis of myocardial infarction were included. On admission, blood samples were obtained to measure serum glucose, cortisol, and catecholamines. A second sample was obtained at 8 AM after 48 h from admission. RESULTS There was a mild and positive correlation between serum cortisol and glucose (Spearman's rho = 0.24, p = 0.005), and no significant correlation was found between glucose and catecholamines. A similar correlation between cortisol and glucose among diabetics and non-diabetics was observed. Significantly higher serum cortisol and glucose levels were present in patients who developed heart failure or died during hospitalization. The association between glycemia and mortality lost significance in multivariate analysis, with a significant interaction term with cortisol (p = 0.003). CONCLUSION Cortisol is a key responsible for stress hyperglycemia, and its deleterious effects on the cardiovascular system could be the cause for worst outcomes associated with hyperglycemia in ACS. Further research is warranted to ascertain this relationship and to investigate potential therapeutic targets.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Diego Costa
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
| | - José Martín Aladio
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Maia Matsudo
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Alejo Pérez de la Hoz
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Marcela Castro
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Diego González
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Alejandra Brignoli
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Silvina Pons
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Alejandra Scazziota
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Ricardo Pérez de la Hoz
- Hospital de Clínicas "José de San Martín", Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
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6
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Nishi M, Uchino E, Okuno Y, Matoba S. Robust prognostic prediction model developed with integrated biological markers for acute myocardial infarction. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0277260. [PMID: 36327332 PMCID: PMC9632913 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Accepted: 10/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Commonly used prediction methods for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were created before contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention was recognized as the primary therapy. Although several studies have used machine learning techniques for prognostic prediction of patients with AMI, its clinical application has not been achieved. Here, we developed an online application tool using a machine learning model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI. A total of 2,553 cases of ST-elevation AMI were assigned to 80% training subset for cross validation and 20% test subset for model performance evaluation. We implemented random forest classifier for the binary classification of in-hospital mortality. The selected best feature set consisted of ten clinical and biological markers including max creatine phosphokinase, hemoglobin, heart rate, creatinine, systolic blood pressure, blood sugar, age, Killip class, white blood cells, and c-reactive protein. Our model achieved high performance: the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve for the test subset, 0.95: sensitivity, 0.89: specificity, 0.91: precision, 0.43: accuracy, 0.91 respectively, which outperformed common scoring methods. The freely available application tool for prognostic prediction can contribute to risk triage and decision-making in patient-centered modern clinical practice for AMI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masahiro Nishi
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
- * E-mail:
| | - Eiichiro Uchino
- Department of Biomedical Data Intelligence, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yasushi Okuno
- Department of Biomedical Data Intelligence, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Satoaki Matoba
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
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Ranard LS, Guber K, Fried J, Takeda K, Kaku Y, Karmpaliotis D, Sayer G, Rabbani L, Burkhoff D, Uriel N, Kirtane AJ, Masoumi A. Comparison of Risk Models in the Prediction of 30-Day Mortality in Acute Myocardial Infarction–Associated Cardiogenic Shock. STRUCTURAL HEART 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.shj.2022.100116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
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Yao Y, Shao C, Li X, Wang Z, Zuo C, Yan Y, Lv Q. A Novel Biomarker Scoring System Alone or in Combination with the GRACE Score for the Prognostic Assessment in Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction. Clin Epidemiol 2022; 14:911-923. [PMID: 35942185 PMCID: PMC9356612 DOI: 10.2147/clep.s370004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 07/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose Patients and Methods Results Conclusion
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Yao
- Department of Pharmacy, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chunlai Shao
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaoye Li
- Department of Pharmacy, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zi Wang
- Department of Pharmacy, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chengchun Zuo
- Department of Pharmacy, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Yan
- Department of Cardiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
- Correspondence: Yan Yan; Qianzhou Lv, Zhongshan Hospital, 180 Fenglin Road, Shanghai, 200032, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86 13916088938, Fax +86 021-64041990, Email ;
| | - Qianzhou Lv
- Department of Pharmacy, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
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Gulati G, Upshaw J, Wessler BS, Brazil RJ, Nelson J, van Klaveren D, Lundquist CM, Park JG, McGinnes H, Steyerberg EW, Van Calster B, Kent DM. Generalizability of Cardiovascular Disease Clinical Prediction Models: 158 Independent External Validations of 104 Unique Models. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2022; 15:e008487. [PMID: 35354282 PMCID: PMC9015037 DOI: 10.1161/circoutcomes.121.008487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Background: While clinical prediction models (CPMs) are used increasingly commonly to guide patient care, the performance and clinical utility of these CPMs in new patient cohorts is poorly understood. Methods: We performed 158 external validations of 104 unique CPMs across 3 domains of cardiovascular disease (primary prevention, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure). Validations were performed in publicly available clinical trial cohorts and model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. To explore potential reasons for poor model performance, CPM-clinical trial cohort pairs were stratified based on relatedness, a domain-specific set of characteristics to qualitatively grade the similarity of derivation and validation patient populations. We also examined the model-based C-statistic to assess whether changes in discrimination were because of differences in case-mix between the derivation and validation samples. The impact of model updating on model performance was also assessed. Results: Discrimination decreased significantly between model derivation (0.76 [interquartile range 0.73–0.78]) and validation (0.64 [interquartile range 0.60–0.67], P<0.001), but approximately half of this decrease was because of narrower case-mix in the validation samples. CPMs had better discrimination when tested in related compared with distantly related trial cohorts. Calibration slope was also significantly higher in related trial cohorts (0.77 [interquartile range, 0.59–0.90]) than distantly related cohorts (0.59 [interquartile range 0.43–0.73], P=0.001). When considering the full range of possible decision thresholds between half and twice the outcome incidence, 91% of models had a risk of harm (net benefit below default strategy) at some threshold; this risk could be reduced substantially via updating model intercept, calibration slope, or complete re-estimation. Conclusions: There are significant decreases in model performance when applying cardiovascular disease CPMs to new patient populations, resulting in substantial risk of harm. Model updating can mitigate these risks. Care should be taken when using CPMs to guide clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaurav Gulati
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.).,Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W.)
| | - Jenica Upshaw
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.).,Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W.)
| | - Benjamin S Wessler
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.).,Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W.)
| | - Riley J Brazil
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.)
| | - Jason Nelson
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.)
| | - David van Klaveren
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.).,Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands (D.v.K., E.W.S., B.V.C.)
| | - Christine M Lundquist
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.)
| | - Jinny G Park
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.)
| | - Hannah McGinnes
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.)
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands (D.v.K., E.W.S., B.V.C.)
| | - Ben Van Calster
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Netherlands (D.v.K., E.W.S., B.V.C.).,KU Leuven, Department of Development and Regeneration, Belgium (B.V.C.).,EPI-Center, KU Leuven, Belgium (B.V.C.)
| | - David M Kent
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (G.G., J.U., B.S.W., R.J.B., J.N., D.v.K., C.M.L., J.G.P., H.M., D.M.K.)
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10
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Cho KH, Shin MH, Kim MC, Sim DS, Hong YJ, Kim JH, Ahn Y, Chae SC, Seong IW, Park JS, Yoon CH, Hur SH, Lee SR, Jeong MH. Prognostic Value of Baseline Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Combined With Anemia in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Prospective Cohort Study. J Lipid Atheroscler 2022; 11:147-160. [PMID: 35656148 PMCID: PMC9133781 DOI: 10.12997/jla.2022.11.2.147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2021] [Revised: 10/11/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Data pertaining to the prognostic value of the combination of high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and anemia on admission in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are limited. The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical value of baseline NLR in combination with anemia in predicting clinical outcomes after STEMI. Methods A total of 5,194 consecutive patients with STEMI within 12 hours of symptom onset from the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry-National Institute of Health database between 2011 and 2015 were categorized into 4 groups according to their NLR and hemoglobin levels: low NLR (<4) without anemia (n=2,722; reference group); high NLR (≥4) without anemia (n=1,527); low NLR with anemia (n=508); and high NLR with anemia (n=437). The co-primary outcomes were 180-day and 3-year all-cause mortality. Results Mortality rates significantly increased at the 3-year follow-up across the groups (3.3% vs. 5.4% vs. 16.5% vs. 21.7% for 180-day mortality and 5.3% vs. 9.0% vs. 23.8% vs. 33.4% for 3-year mortality; all p-trends <0.001). After adjusting for baseline covariates, the combination of high NLR and anemia was a significant predictor of 180-day mortality after STEMI with low NLR and no anemia as the reference (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.58–2.95; p<0.001). Similar findings were observed for the 3-year mortality. Conclusions This nationwide prospective cohort study showed that the combination of high NLR (≥4) and anemia is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality after STEMI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyung Hoon Cho
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
| | - Min-Ho Shin
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
| | - Min Chul Kim
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
| | - Doo Sun Sim
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
| | - Young Joon Hong
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
| | - Ju Han Kim
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
| | - Youngkeun Ahn
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
| | - Shung Chull Chae
- Department of Cardiology, Kyungpook National University Hospital, Daegu, Korea
| | - In Whan Seong
- Department of Cardiology, Chungnam National University Hospital, Daejeon, Korea
| | - Jong-Seon Park
- Department of Cardiology, Yeungnam University Hospital, Daegu, Korea
| | - Chang-Hwan Yoon
- Department of Cardiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea
| | - Seung Ho Hur
- Department of Cardiology, Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center, Daegu, Korea
| | - Sang Rok Lee
- Department of Cardiology, Jeonbuk National University Hospital, Jeonju, Korea
| | - Myung Ho Jeong
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, Korea
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11
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Korol S, Wsol A, Reshetnik A, Krasyuk A, Marushchenko K, Puchalska L. Evaluation and Comparison of the STIMUL Extended and Simplified Risk Scores for Predicting Two-Year Death in Patients Following ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction. Medicina (B Aires) 2021; 57:medicina57121349. [PMID: 34946294 PMCID: PMC8707946 DOI: 10.3390/medicina57121349] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Revised: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 12/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Objectives: The management of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) requires a patient’s long-term risk to be estimated. The objective of this study was to develop extended and simplified models of two-year death risk estimation following STEMI that include and exclude cardiac troponins as prognostic factors and to compare their performance with each other. Materials and Methods: Extended and simplified multivariable logistic regression models were elaborated using 1103 patients with STEMI enrolled and followed up in the STIMUL (ST-segment elevation Myocardial Infarctions in Ukraine and their Lethality) registry. Results: The extended STIMUL risk score includes seven independent risk factors: age; Killip class ≥ II at admission; resuscitated cardiac arrest; non-reperfused infarct-related artery; troponin I ≥ 150.0 ng/L; diabetes mellitus; and history of congestive heart failure. The exclusion of cardiac troponin in the simplified model did not influence the predictive value of each factor. Both models divide patients into low, moderate, and high risk groups with a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.93; p < 0.001) for the extended STIMUL model and a C-statistic of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83–0.99; p < 0.001) for the simplified model. However, the addition of the level of troponin I to the model increased its prognostic value by 10.7%. Conclusions: The STIMUL extended and simplified risk estimation models perform well in the prediction of two-year death risk following STEMI. The simplified version may be useful when clinicians do not know the value of cardiac troponins among the population of STEMI patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Svitlana Korol
- Department of Military Therapy of the Ukrainian Military Medical Academy, 01015 Kyiv, Ukraine; (S.K.); (A.K.); (K.M.)
| | - Agnieszka Wsol
- Department of Experimental and Clinical Physiology, Laboratory of Centre for Preclinical Research, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland;
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +48-22-116-6113
| | - Alexander Reshetnik
- Department of Nephrology and Intensive Care Medicine, Charité—Universitätsmedizin Berlin, 13353 Berlin, Germany;
| | - Alexander Krasyuk
- Department of Military Therapy of the Ukrainian Military Medical Academy, 01015 Kyiv, Ukraine; (S.K.); (A.K.); (K.M.)
| | - Kateryna Marushchenko
- Department of Military Therapy of the Ukrainian Military Medical Academy, 01015 Kyiv, Ukraine; (S.K.); (A.K.); (K.M.)
| | - Liana Puchalska
- Department of Experimental and Clinical Physiology, Laboratory of Centre for Preclinical Research, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland;
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12
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Fan X, Li M, Cao J, Liang Z. Application of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk index in the prediction of long-term outcomes for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and multiple vessel disease: A single-center prospective observational cohort study. Exp Ther Med 2021; 22:1464. [PMID: 34737804 PMCID: PMC8561768 DOI: 10.3892/etm.2021.10899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2019] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk index has been indicated to be a simple and useful tool for risk stratification of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the predictive value of the TIMI risk index regarding the long-term outcome for patients with STEMI with multiple vessel disease has remained to be determined. In the present study, a total of 369 patients diagnosed with STEMI who received emergency percutaneous coronary intervention treatment were analyzed. A five-year follow-up was performed to record the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality, as well as the secondary endpoints of myocardial infarction, stroke, emergent revascularization and admission due to heart failure. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cut-off value of the TIMI risk index for predicting all-cause death, based on which the patients were divided into a high TIMI group and a low TIMI group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the long-term survival of the two groups and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of the risk factors regarding primary and secondary endpoints. The ROC curve indicated that the TIMI risk index was associated with three-year all-cause death with a cut-off value of 30.35 (area under curve, 0.705; P=0.001). The high TIMI group (>30.35) and low TIMI group (<30.35) exhibited a significant difference in all-cause death (P=0.009) but not in any of the secondary endpoints (P=0.527). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that a high TIMI risk index was an independent risk factor for all-cause death in patients with STEMI and multiple-vessel disease (hazard ratio=3.709, 95% CI: 1.521-9.046, P=0.004). In conclusion, the TIMI risk index was associated with long-term outcomes for patients with STEMI and multiple-vessel disease and may be of value for risk prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuefang Fan
- Department of Cardiology, Xianyang Hospital of Yan'an University, Xianyang, Shanxi 712000, P.R. China
| | - Mingliang Li
- Ward No. 2, Department of Cardiovascular Disease, People's Hospital of Hanzhong City, Hanzhong, Shanxi 723000, P.R. China
| | - Jie Cao
- Department of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Yan'an University, Xiangyang, Shanxi 716000, P.R. China
| | - Zeming Liang
- Second Department of Cardiovascular Disease, Baoji Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Baoji, Shanxi 721000, P.R. China
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13
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Kalra S, Ranard LS, Memon S, Rao P, Garan AR, Masoumi A, O'Neill W, Kapur NK, Karmpaliotis D, Fried JA, Burkhoff D. Risk Prediction in Cardiogenic Shock: Current State of Knowledge, Challenges and Opportunities. J Card Fail 2021; 27:1099-1110. [PMID: 34625129 DOI: 10.1016/j.cardfail.2021.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 07/30/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a condition associated with high mortality rates in which prognostication is uncertain for a variety of reasons, including its myriad causes, its rapidly evolving clinical course and the plethora of established and emerging therapies for the condition. A number of validated risk scores are available for CS prognostication; however, many of these are tedious to use, are designed for application in a variety of populations and fail to incorporate contemporary hemodynamic parameters and contemporary mechanical circulatory support interventions that can affect outcomes. It is important to separate patients with CS who may recover with conservative pharmacological therapies from those in who may require advanced therapies to survive; it is equally important to identify quickly those who will succumb despite any therapy. An ideal risk-prediction model would balance incorporation of key hemodynamic parameters while still allowing dynamic use in multiple scenarios, from aiding with early decision making to device weaning. Herein, we discuss currently available CS risk scores, perform a detailed analysis of the variables in each of these scores that are most predictive of CS outcomes and explore a framework for the development of novel risk scores that consider emerging therapies and paradigms for this challenging clinical entity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanjog Kalra
- The Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Lauren S Ranard
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, New York
| | - Sehrish Memon
- Einstein Medical Center Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Prashant Rao
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Masschusetts
| | - A Reshad Garan
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Masschusetts
| | - Amirali Masoumi
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, New York
| | | | - Navin K Kapur
- Tufts University Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Dimitri Karmpaliotis
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, New York; Cardiovascular Research Foundation, New York, New York
| | - Justin A Fried
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital, New York, New York
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14
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Gawinski L, Engelseth P, Kozlowski R. Application of Modern Clinical Risk Scores in the Global Assessment of Risks Related to the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Coronary Syndromes in Everyday Medical Practice. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18179103. [PMID: 34501692 PMCID: PMC8431105 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18179103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2021] [Revised: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This article presents an overview of contemporary risk assessment systems used in patients with myocardial infarction. The full range of risk scales, both recommended by the European Society of Cardiology and others published in recent years, is presented. Scales for assessing the risk of ischemia/death as well as for assessing the risk of bleeding are presented. A separate section is devoted to systems assessing the integrated risk associated with both ischemia and bleeding. In the first part of the work, each of the risk scales is described in detail, including the clinical trials/registers on the basis of which they were created, the statistical methods used to develop them, as well as the specification of their individual parameters. The next chapter presents the practical application of a given scale in the patient risk assessment process, the timing of its application on the timeline of myocardial infarction, as well as a critical assessment of its potential advantages and limitations. The last part of the work is devoted to the presentation of potential directions for the development of risk assessment systems in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lukasz Gawinski
- Department of Management and Logistics in Health Care, Medical University of Lodz, 90-237 Lodz, Poland
- Correspondence:
| | - Per Engelseth
- Narvik Campus, Tromsø School of Business and Economics, University of Tromsø, 8505 Narvik, Norway;
| | - Remigiusz Kozlowski
- Center of Security Technologies in Logistics, Faculty of Management, University of Lodz, 90-237 Lodz, Poland;
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15
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Kong S, Chen C, Zheng G, Yao H, Li J, Ye H, Wang X, Qu X, Zhou X, Lu Y, Zhou H. A prognostic nomogram for long-term major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome after percutaneous coronary intervention. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2021; 21:253. [PMID: 34022791 PMCID: PMC8141252 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-021-02051-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) is very important for the management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. We aimed to construct an effective prognostic nomogram for individualized risk estimates of MACEs for patients with ACS after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS This was a prospective study of patients with ACS after PCI from January 2013 to July 2019 (n = 2465). After removing patients with incomplete clinical information, a total of 1986 patients were randomly divided into evaluation (n = 1324) and validation (n = 662) groups. Predictors included in the nomogram were determined by a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model based on the training set. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to assess the discrimination and predictive accuracy of the nomogram, which were then compared with those of the classic models. The clinical utility of the nomogram was assessed by X-tile analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve analysis. RESULTS Independent prognostic factors, including lactate level, age, left anterior descending branch stenosis, right coronary artery stenosis, brain natriuretic peptide level, and left ventricular ejection fraction, were determined and contained in the nomogram. The nomogram achieved good areas under the ROC curve of 0.712-0.762 in the training set and 0.724-0.818 in the validation set and well-fitted calibration curves. In addition, participants could be divided into two risk groups (low and high) according to this model. CONCLUSIONS A simple-to-use nomogram incorporating lactate level effectively predicted 6-month, 1-year, and 4-year MACE incidence among patients with ACS after PCI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuting Kong
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Changxi Chen
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Gaoshu Zheng
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Hui Yao
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Junfeng Li
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Hong Ye
- Cardiac Interventional Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xiaobo Wang
- Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinghua, 321000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xiang Qu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xiaodong Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yucheng Lu
- The First Clinical Medical College of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China
| | - Hao Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325000, Zhejiang, China.
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16
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Wang G, Wang R, Liu L, Wang J, Zhou L. Comparison of shock index-based risk indices for predicting in-hospital outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. J Int Med Res 2021; 49:3000605211000506. [PMID: 33784854 PMCID: PMC8020253 DOI: 10.1177/03000605211000506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective We aimed to determine whether the prognostic value of the shock index (SI)
and its derivatives is better than that of the Thrombolysis In Myocardial
Infarction risk index (TRI) for predicting adverse outcomes in patients with
ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary
percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods A total of 257 patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI from January 2018
to June 2019 were analyzed in a retrospective cohort study. The SI, modified
shock index (MSI), age SI (age × the SI), age MSI (age × the MSI), and TRI
at admission were calculated. Clinical endpoints were in-hospital
complications, including all-cause mortality, acute heart failure, cardiac
shock, mechanical complications, re-infarction, and life-threatening
arrhythmia. Results Multivariate analyses showed that a high SI, MSI, age SI, age MSI, and TRI at
admission were associated with a significantly higher rate of in-hospital
complications. The predictive value of the age SI and age MSI was comparable
with that of the TRI (area under the receiver operating characteristic
curve: z = 1.313 and z = 0.882, respectively) for predicting in-hospital
complications. Conclusions The age SI and age MSI appear to be similar to the TRI for predicting
in-hospital complications in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guoyu Wang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China.,Department of Cardiology, Taizhou People's Hospital, Jiangsu Province, Taizhou, China
| | - Ruzhu Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Taizhou People's Hospital, Jiangsu Province, Taizhou, China
| | - Ling Liu
- Department of Cardiology, Taizhou People's Hospital, Jiangsu Province, Taizhou, China
| | - Jing Wang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China.,Department of Cardiology, The Affiliated Huaian No. 1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Huaian, China
| | - Lei Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
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17
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Haghbayan H, Gale CP, Chew DP, Brieger D, Fox KA, Goodman SG, Yan AT. Clinical risk prediction models for the prognosis and management of acute coronary syndromes. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. QUALITY OF CARE & CLINICAL OUTCOMES 2021; 7:222-228. [PMID: 33693493 DOI: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcab018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2021] [Accepted: 03/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), particularly non-ST-segment elevation ACS, represent a spectrum of patients at variable risk of short- and long-term adverse clinical outcomes. Accurate prognostic assessment in this population requires the simultaneous consideration of multiple clinical and laboratory variables which may be under-recognized by the treating physicians, leading to an observed risk-treatment paradox in the use of invasive and pharmacological therapies. The routine application of established clinical risk scores, such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, is recommended by major international clinical practice guidelines for structured risk stratification at the time of presentation, but uptake remains inconsistent. This article discusses the methodology of designing, deriving, and validating clinical risk scores, reviews the major validated risk scores for assessing prognosis in ACS, and examines their role in guiding clinical decision-making in ACS management, especially the timing of invasive coronary angiography. We also discuss emerging data on the impact of the routine use of such risk scores on patient management and clinical outcomes, as well as future directions for investigation in this field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hourmazd Haghbayan
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto M5B 1W8,Ontario, Canada
| | - Chris P Gale
- School of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Derek P Chew
- College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - David Brieger
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, Concord Hospital, University of Sydney, Sydney,NSW 2050 Australia
| | - Keith A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Shaun G Goodman
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto M5B 1W8,Ontario, Canada
| | - Andrew T Yan
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, 30 Bond Street, Toronto M5B 1W8,Ontario, Canada
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18
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Wu C, Zhang D, Bai X, Zhou T, Wang Y, Lin Z, He G, Li X. Are medical record front page data suitable for risk adjustment in hospital performance measurement? Development and validation of a risk model of in-hospital mortality after acute myocardial infarction. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e045053. [PMID: 33837102 PMCID: PMC8043007 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop a model of in-hospital mortality using medical record front page (MRFP) data and assess its validity in case-mix standardisation by comparison with a model developed using the complete medical record data. DESIGN A nationally representative retrospective study. SETTING Representative hospitals in China, covering 161 hospitals in modelling cohort and 156 hospitals in validation cohort. PARTICIPANTS Representative patients admitted for acute myocardial infarction. 8370 patients in modelling cohort and 9704 patients in validation cohort. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES In-hospital mortality, which was defined explicitly as death that occurred during hospitalisation, and the hospital-level risk standardised mortality rate (RSMR). RESULTS A total of 14 variables were included in the model predicting in-hospital mortality based on MRFP data, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 among modelling cohort and 0.79 among validation cohort. The median of absolute difference between the hospital RSMR predicted by hierarchical generalised linear models established based on MRFP data and complete medical record data, which was built as 'reference model', was 0.08% (10th and 90th percentiles: -1.8% and 1.6%). In the regression model comparing the RSMR between two models, the slope and intercept of the regression equation is 0.90 and 0.007 in modelling cohort, while 0.85 and 0.010 in validation cohort, which indicated that the evaluation capability from two models were very similar. CONCLUSIONS The models based on MRFP data showed good discrimination and calibration capability, as well as similar risk prediction effect in comparison with the model based on complete medical record data, which proved that MRFP data could be suitable for risk adjustment in hospital performance measurement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaoqun Wu
- National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Clinical Research for Cardiovascular Medications, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Danwei Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Clinical Research for Cardiovascular Medications, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Xueke Bai
- National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Clinical Research for Cardiovascular Medications, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Tiannan Zhou
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale-New Haven Health System, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Yongfei Wang
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Zhenqiu Lin
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Yale-New Haven Health System, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Guangda He
- National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Clinical Research for Cardiovascular Medications, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Xi Li
- National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Clinical Research for Cardiovascular Medications, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
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19
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Dillinger JG, Laine M, Bouajila S, Paganelli F, Henry P, Bonello L. Antithrombotic strategies in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome. Arch Cardiovasc Dis 2021; 114:232-245. [PMID: 33632631 DOI: 10.1016/j.acvd.2020.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2020] [Revised: 12/21/2020] [Accepted: 12/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Elderly patients represent a growing proportion of the acute coronary syndrome population in Western countries. However, their frequent atypical symptoms at presentation often lead to delays in management and to misdiagnosis. Furthermore, their prognosis is poorer than that of younger patients because of physiological changes in platelet function, haemostasis and fibrinolysis, but also a higher proportion of comorbidities and frailty, both of which increase the risk of recurrent thrombotic and bleeding events. This complex situation, with ischaemic and haemorrhagic risk factors often being intertwined, may lead to confusion about the required treatment strategy, sometimes resulting in inadequate management or even to therapeutic nihilism. It is therefore critical to provide a comprehensive overview of our understanding of the pathophysiological processes underlying acute coronary syndrome in elderly patients, and to summarise the results from the latest clinical trials to help decision making for these high-risk patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean-Guillaume Dillinger
- Department of cardiology, Hôpital Lariboisière, AP-HP, Inserm U-942, Université de Paris, 2, rue Ambroise-Paré, 75010 Paris, France.
| | - Marc Laine
- Mediterranean Association for research and studies in cardiology (MARS cardio), Centre for cardiovascular and nutrition research, AP-HM, Aix-Marseille University, INSERM 1263, INRA 1260, 13015 Marseille, France; Cardiology department, Hôpital Nord, 13015 Marseille, France; Mediterranean Association for research and studies in cardiology (MARS cardio), 13015 Marseille, France
| | - Sara Bouajila
- Department of cardiology, Hôpital Lariboisière, AP-HP, Inserm U-942, Université de Paris, 2, rue Ambroise-Paré, 75010 Paris, France
| | - Franck Paganelli
- Mediterranean Association for research and studies in cardiology (MARS cardio), Centre for cardiovascular and nutrition research, AP-HM, Aix-Marseille University, INSERM 1263, INRA 1260, 13015 Marseille, France; Cardiology department, Hôpital Nord, 13015 Marseille, France
| | - Patrick Henry
- Department of cardiology, Hôpital Lariboisière, AP-HP, Inserm U-942, Université de Paris, 2, rue Ambroise-Paré, 75010 Paris, France
| | - Laurent Bonello
- Mediterranean Association for research and studies in cardiology (MARS cardio), Centre for cardiovascular and nutrition research, AP-HM, Aix-Marseille University, INSERM 1263, INRA 1260, 13015 Marseille, France; Cardiology department, Hôpital Nord, 13015 Marseille, France; Mediterranean Association for research and studies in cardiology (MARS cardio), 13015 Marseille, France
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20
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Shen J, Liu G, Yang Y, Li X, Zhu Y, Xiang Z, Gan H, Huang B, Luo S. Prognostic impact of mean heart rate by Holter monitoring on long-term outcome in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Clin Res Cardiol 2021; 110:1439-1449. [PMID: 33547959 DOI: 10.1007/s00392-021-01806-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have shown elevated admission heart rate (HR) was associated with worse outcome in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). However, the prognostic value of mean heart rate (MHR) with Holter monitoring remains unclear. OBJECTIVES Our present study aims to evaluate the impact of MHR by Holter monitoring on long-term mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS 1013 STEMI patients were divided into four groups according to the quartiles of MHR by Holter monitoring, Q1 (< 66 bpm), Q2 66-72 bpm), Q3 (73-78 bpm), and Q4 (> 78 bpm). The endpoint was long-term all-cause mortality. The predictive value of admission HR, discharge HR, and MHR was compared with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS Patients in Q4 were more likely to present with anterior MI, high Killip class, relatively lower admission blood pressure, significantly increased troponin I, B-type natriuretic peptide, and decreased left ventricular ejection fraction. During a median of 28.3 months follow up period, 91 patients (8.9%) died. The mortality in Q4 was significantly higher than in the other three groups (P < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment, Q4 was associated with a 1.0-fold increased risk of long-term all-cause mortality (HR = 2.096, 95% CI 1.190-3.691, P = 0.010). ROC analysis shows MHR with Holter (AUC = 0.672) was superior to admission HR (AUC = 0.556) or discharge HR (AUC = 0.578). CONCLUSIONS MHR based on Holter monitoring provided important prognostic value and MHR > 78 bpm was independently associated with increased risk of long-term all-cause mortality in patients with STEMI, and its predictive validity was superior to admission or discharge HR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Shen
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Gang Liu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuan Yang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Li
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuansong Zhu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhenxian Xiang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Hongbo Gan
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China
| | - Bi Huang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China.
| | - Suxin Luo
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, No. 1 Youyi Road, Yuzhong District, Chongqing, 400016, People's Republic of China.
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21
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Fu B, Wei X, Wang Q, Yang Z, Chen J, Yu D. Use of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Index for Elderly Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction. Front Cardiovasc Med 2021; 8:743678. [PMID: 34869648 PMCID: PMC8639686 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2021.743678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Index (TRI) is a simple risk assessment tool for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, its applicability to elderly patients with STEMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is uncertain. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of elderly (≥60 years) patients who underwent PCI for STEMI from January 2010 to April 2016. TRI was calculated on admission using the following formula: heart rate × (age/10)2/systolic blood pressure. Discrimination and calibration of TRI for in-hospital events and 1 year mortality were analyzed. Results: Totally 1,054 patients were divided into three groups according to the tertiles of the TRI: <27 (n = 348), 27-36 (n = 360) and >36 (n = 346). The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI; 7.8 vs. 8.6 vs. 24.0%, p < 0.001), AHF (3.5 vs. 6.6 vs. 16.2%, p < 0.001), in-hospital death (0.6 vs. 3.3 vs. 11.6%, p < 0.001) and MACEs (5.2 vs. 5.8 vs. 15.9%, p < 0.001) was significantly higher in the third tertile. TRI showed good discrimination for in-hospital death [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.804, p < 0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.302], which was superior to its prediction for AKI (AUC = 0.678, p < 0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.121), and in-hospital MACEs (AUC = 0.669, p < 0.001; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.077). Receiver-operation characteristics curve showed that TRI > 42.0 had a sensitivity of 64.8% and specificity of 82.2% for predicting in-hospital death. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with TRI > 42.0 had higher 1 year mortality (Log-rank = 79.2, p < 0.001). Conclusion: TRI is suitable for risk stratification in elderly patients with STEMI undergoing PCI, and is thus of continuing value for an aging population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bingqi Fu
- Division of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China
| | - Xuebiao Wei
- Division of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Division of Geriatric Intensive Medicine, Guangdong Provincial Geriatrics Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Qi Wang
- Division of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China
| | - Zhiwen Yang
- Division of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China
| | - Jiyan Chen
- Division of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Danqing Yu
- Division of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
- *Correspondence: Danqing Yu
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22
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Ran P, Yang JQ, Li J, Li G, Wang Y, Qiu J, Zhong Q, Wang Y, Wei XB, Huang JL, Siu CW, Zhou YL, Zhao D, Yu DQ, Chen JY. A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project. ANNALS OF TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE 2021; 9:167. [PMID: 33569469 PMCID: PMC7867931 DOI: 10.21037/atm-21-31] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A number of models have been built to evaluate risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, accurate prediction of mortality at early medical contact is difficult. This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with ACS using variables available at early medical contact. METHODS A total of 62,546 unselected ACS patients from 150 tertiary hospitals who were admitted between 2014 and 2017 and enrolled in the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) project, were randomly assigned (at a ratio of 7:3) to a training dataset (n=43,774) and a validation dataset (n=18,772). Based on the identified predictors which were available prior to any blood test, a new point-based risk score for in-hospital death, CCC-ACS score, was derived and validated. The CCC-ACS score was then compared with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. RESULTS The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.9% in both the training and validation datasets. The CCC-ACS score, a new point-based risk score, was developed to predict in-hospital mortality using 7 variables that were available before any blood test including age, systolic blood pressure, cardiac arrest, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, history of heart failure, severe clinical conditions (acute heart failure or cardiogenic shock), and electrocardiographic ST-segment deviation. This new risk score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (P=0.10 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the training dataset and 0.85 (P=0.13 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the validation dataset. The CCC-ACS score was comparable to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of in-hospital death in the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS The newly developed CCC-ACS score, which utilizes factors that are acquirable at early medical contact, may be able to stratify the risk of in-hospital death in patients with ACS. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02306616.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Ran
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jun-Qing Yang
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jie Li
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Guang Li
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yan Wang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Jia Qiu
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Qi Zhong
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yu Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xue-Biao Wei
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jie-Leng Huang
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Chung-Wah Siu
- Cardiology Division, Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ying-Ling Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Dong Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing Institute of Heart, Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Dan-Qing Yu
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ji-Yan Chen
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coronary Heart Disease Prevention, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
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23
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Koh CH. Commercial Air Travel for Passengers With Cardiovascular Disease: Recommendations for Common Conditions. Curr Probl Cardiol 2020; 46:100768. [PMID: 33348221 DOI: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2020.100768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 11/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
The exponential growth of commercial flights has resulted in an explosion of air travelers over the last few decades, including passengers with a wide range of cardiovascular conditions. Notwithstanding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that had set back the aviation industry for the next 1-2 years, air travel is expected to rebound fully by 2024. Guidelines and evidence-based recommendations for safe air travel in this group vary, and physicians often encounter situations where opinions and assessments on fitness for flights are sought. This article aims to provide an updated suite of recommendations for the aeromedical disposition of passenger with common cardiovascular conditions, such as ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathies, and common arrhythmias.
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Affiliation(s)
- Choong Hou Koh
- Department of Cardiology, National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore; Duke-NUS School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Changi Aviation Medical Centre, Changi General Hospital, Singapore.
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24
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Solano-López J, Zamorano JL, Pardo Sanz A, Amat-Santos I, Sarnago F, Gutiérrez Ibañes E, Sanchis J, Rey Blas JR, Gómez-Hospital JA, Santos Martínez S, Maneiro-Melón NM, Mateos Gaitán R, González D'Gregorio J, Salido L, Mestre JL, Sanmartín M, Sánchez-Recalde Á. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction during the COVID-19 outbreak. REVISTA ESPANOLA DE CARDIOLOGIA (ENGLISH ED.) 2020; 73:985-993. [PMID: 32839121 PMCID: PMC7832619 DOI: 10.1016/j.rec.2020.07.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES Despite advances in treatment, patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) still exhibit unfavorable short- and long-term prognoses. In addition, there is scant evidence about the clinical outcomes of patients with AMI and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of this study was to describe the clinical presentation, complications, and risk factors for mortality in patients admitted for AMI during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS This prospective, multicenter, cohort study included all consecutive patients with AMI who underwent coronary angiography in a 30-day period corresponding chronologically with the COVID-19 outbreak (March 15 to April 15, 2020). Clinical presentations and outcomes were compared between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. The effect of COVID-19 on mortality was assessed by propensity score matching and with a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS In total, 187 patients were admitted for AMI, 111 with ST-segment elevation AMI and 76 with non-ST-segment elevation AMI. Of these, 32 (17%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. GRACE score, Killip-Kimball classification, and several inflammatory markers were significantly higher in COVID-19-positive patients. Total and cardiovascular mortality were also significantly higher in COVID-19-positive patients (25% vs 3.8% [P <.001] and 15.2% vs 1.8% [P=.001], respectively). GRACE score> 140 (OR, 23.45; 95%CI, 2.52-62.51; P=.005) and COVID-19 (OR, 6.61; 95%CI, 1.82-24.43; P=.02) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS During this pandemic, a high GRACE score and COVID-19 were independent risk factors associated with higher in-hospital mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge Solano-López
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain
| | - José Luis Zamorano
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ana Pardo Sanz
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ignacio Amat-Santos
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Instituto de Ciencias del Corazón (ICICOR), Valladolid, Spain
| | - Fernando Sarnago
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - Enrique Gutiérrez Ibañes
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Juan Sanchis
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Cardiología Intervencionista, Hospital Clínic i Universitari de València - Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria INCLIVA, Valencia, Spain
| | - Juan Ramón Rey Blas
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Madrid, Spain
| | - Joan Antoni Gómez-Hospital
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Bellvitge, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sandra Santos Martínez
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Instituto de Ciencias del Corazón (ICICOR), Valladolid, Spain
| | | | - Roberto Mateos Gaitán
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jessika González D'Gregorio
- Departamento de Cardiología Intervencionista, Hospital Clínic i Universitari de València - Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria INCLIVA, Valencia, Spain
| | - Luisa Salido
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain
| | - José L Mestre
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain
| | - Marcelo Sanmartín
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ángel Sánchez-Recalde
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, Spain.
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25
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Solano-López J, Zamorano JL, Pardo Sanz A, Amat-Santos I, Sarnago F, Gutiérrez Ibañes E, Sanchis J, Rey Blas JR, Gómez-Hospital JA, Santos Martínez S, Maneiro-Melón NM, Mateos Gaitán R, González D'Gregorio J, Salido L, Mestre JL, Sanmartín M, Sánchez-Recalde Á. [Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction during the COVID-19 outbreak]. Rev Esp Cardiol 2020; 73:985-993. [PMID: 32963419 PMCID: PMC7498230 DOI: 10.1016/j.recesp.2020.07.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES Despite advances in treatment, patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) still exhibit unfavorable short- and long-term prognoses. In addition, there is scant evidence about the clinical outcomes of patients with AMI and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of this study was to describe the clinical presentation, complications, and risk factors for mortality in patients admitted for AMI during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS This prospective, multicenter, cohort study included all consecutive patients with AMI who underwent coronary angiography in a 30-day period corresponding chronologically with the COVID-19 outbreak (March 15 to April 15, 2020). Clinical presentations and outcomes were compared between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. The effect of COVID-19 on mortality was assessed by propensity score matching and with a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS In total, 187 patients were admitted for AMI, 111 with ST-segment elevation AMI and 76 with non-ST-segment elevation AMI. Of these, 32 (17%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. GRACE score, Killip-Kimball classification, and several inflammatory markers were significantly higher in COVID-19-positive patients. Total and cardiovascular mortality were also significantly higher in COVID-19-positive patients (25% vs 3.8% [P < .001] and 15.2% vs 1.8% [P = .001], respectively). GRACE score > 140 (OR, 23.45; 95%CI, 2.52-62.51; P = .005) and COVID-19 (OR, 6.61; 95%CI, 1.82-24.43; P = .02) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS During this pandemic, a high GRACE score and COVID-19 were independent risk factors associated with higher in-hospital mortality.Full English text available from:www.revespcardiol.org/en.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge Solano-López
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
| | - José Luis Zamorano
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
| | - Ana Pardo Sanz
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
| | - Ignacio Amat-Santos
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Instituto de Ciencias del Corazón (ICICOR), Valladolid, España
| | - Fernando Sarnago
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - Enrique Gutiérrez Ibañes
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España
| | - Juan Sanchis
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
- Departamento de Cardiología Intervencionista, Hospital Clínic i Universitari de València - Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria INCLIVA, Valencia, España
| | - Juan Ramón Rey Blas
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Madrid, España
| | - Joan Antoni Gómez-Hospital
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Bellvitge, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, España
| | - Sandra Santos Martínez
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Instituto de Ciencias del Corazón (ICICOR), Valladolid, España
| | | | - Roberto Mateos Gaitán
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España
| | - Jessika González D'Gregorio
- Departamento de Cardiología Intervencionista, Hospital Clínic i Universitari de València - Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria INCLIVA, Valencia, España
| | - Luisa Salido
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
| | - José L Mestre
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
| | - Marcelo Sanmartín
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
| | - Ángel Sánchez-Recalde
- Departamento de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, España
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (CIBERCV), Madrid, España
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De Paiva Fagundes A, Morrow DA. Which patients with acute coronary syndrome need the cardiac intensive care unit: tuning the tools for risk stratification. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL-ACUTE CARDIOVASCULAR CARE 2020; 9:543-545. [PMID: 33203233 DOI: 10.1177/2048872620963490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Antonio De Paiva Fagundes
- TIMI Study Group, Harvard Medical School, USA.,IPE-HOME Research and Teaching Institute, HOME Hospital, Brazil
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Mitarai T, Tanabe Y, Akashi YJ, Maeda A, Ako J, Ikari Y, Ebina T, Namiki A, Fukui K, Michishita I, Kimura K, Suzuki H. A novel risk stratification system "Angiographic GRACE Score" for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with acute myocardial infarction: Data from the K-ACTIVE Registry. J Cardiol 2020; 77:179-185. [PMID: 32921529 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjcc.2020.08.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Revised: 07/18/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score is the most accurate risk assessment system for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which was proposed in Western countries. However, it is unclear whether GRACE score is applicable to the present Japanese patients with a high prevalence of emergent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and vasospasm. This study aimed to clarify the usefulness of GRACE risk score for risk stratification of Japanese AMI patients treated with early PCI and to evaluate a novel risk stratification system, "angiographic GRACE score," which is the GRACE risk score adjusted by the information of the culprit coronary artery and its flow at pre- and post-PCI, to improve its predicting availability. METHODS The subjects were 1817 AMI patients who underwent PCI within 24 h of onset between October 2015 and August 2017 and were registered in Kanagawa Acute Cardiovascular (K-ACTIVE) Registry via survey form. The association between the clinical parameters and in-hospital mortality was investigated. RESULTS A total of 79 (4.3%) in-hospital deaths were identified. The C-statistics for the in-hospital mortality of the GRACE score was 0.86, which was higher than that of the other conventional risk factors, including age (0.65), systolic blood pressure (0.70), heart rate (0.62), Killip classification (0.77), and serum levels of creatinine (0.68) and peak creatine kinase (0.74). The angiographic GRACE score improved the C-statistics from 0.86 of the original GRACE score to 0.89 (p < 0.05). In the setting of the cut-off value at 200, in-hospital mortality in the patients with the angiographic GRACE score <200 was 0.6%, which was relatively lower than those with ≥200, 9.4%. CONCLUSIONS The GRACE score is a useful predictor of in-hospital mortality among Japanese AMI patients in the PCI era. Moreover, the angiographic GRACE score could improve the predicting availability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takanobu Mitarai
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Yasuhiro Tanabe
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan.
| | - Yoshihiro J Akashi
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Atsuo Maeda
- Department of Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Showa University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Junya Ako
- Division of Cardiology, Kitasato University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Yuji Ikari
- Division of Cardiology, Tokai University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Toshiaki Ebina
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Clinical Investigation, Yokohama City University Medical Center, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Atsuo Namiki
- Division of Cardiology, Kanto Rosai Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Kazuki Fukui
- Division of Cardiology, Kanagawa Cardiovascular and Respiratory Center, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Ichiro Michishita
- Division of Cardiology, Yokohama Sakae Kyosai Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Kazuo Kimura
- Division of Cardiology, Yokohama City University Medical Center, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Suzuki
- Division of Cardiology, Showa University Fujigaoka Hospital, Kanagawa, Japan
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Type 1 myocardial infarction rapid screening scale for emergency triage in patients with non-traumatic chest pain: A study of 1928 cases with coronary angiography. Int J Cardiol 2020; 321:1-5. [PMID: 32805329 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2020.08.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2019] [Revised: 07/11/2020] [Accepted: 08/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The effectiveness of treatment and prognosis of patients with type 1 myocardial infarction are highly correlated with time of diagnosis. This study aimed to develop a type 1 MI rapid screening scale (T1MIrs scale) suitable for emergency pre-diagnosis. METHODS A total of 1928 patients who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled. Multivariate regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors of type 1 MI. And the T1MIrs scale was developed and evaluated according to the multivariate regression result. RESULTS The incidence of type 1 MI was 23.3% in the population with suspected acute coronary syndrome. After 5 adjusting for relevant factors, MEWS score (OR = 1.809, 95%CI 1.623-2.016, P < .001), typical symptoms (OR = 9.826, 95%CI 7.379-13.084, P < .001), male (OR = 2.184, 95%CI 1.602-2.979, P < .001), age (OR = 1.021, 95%CI 1.009-1.033, P = .001), history of diabetes (OR = 2.174, 95%CI 1.594-2.963, P < .001) and current smoker (OR = 2.498, 95%CI 1.550-4.026, P < .001) were the independent risk factors for type 1 MI. The T1MIrs scale is established based on risk factors, with a range of 0-8 points. The incidence of type 1 MI is ascending with the scale (0.3% vs. 3.7% vs. 14.3% vs. 34.9% vs. 57% vs. 76.4% vs. 84.2% vs. 87.5% vs. 100%, P for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS Type 1 MI is common in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome in emergency department. The T1MIrs scale could act as a rapid pre-examination triage of suspected population in emergency department, which is meaningful to screen out type 1 MI patients as soon as possible.
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STEMI, Cardiogenic Shock, and Mortality in Patients Admitted for Acute Angiography: Associations and Predictions from Plasma Proteome Data. Shock 2020; 55:41-47. [PMID: 32590698 DOI: 10.1097/shk.0000000000001595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
AIM Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity, and cardiogenic shock (CS) a major cause of hospital mortality after AMI. Especially for ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients, fast intervention is essential.Few proteins have proven clinically applicable for AMI. Most proposed biomarkers are based on a priori hypothesis-driven studies of single proteins, not enabling identification of novel candidates. For clinical use, the ability to predict AMI is important; however, studies of proteins in prediction models are surprisingly scarce.Consequently, we applied proteome data for identifying proteins associated with definitive STEMI, CS, and all-cause mortality after admission, and examined the ability of the proteins to predict these outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS Proteome-wide data of 497 patients with suspected STEMI were investigated; 381 patients were diagnosed with STEMI, 35 with CS, and 51 died during the first year. Data analysis was conducted by logistic and Cox regression modeling for association analysis, and by multivariable LASSO regression models for prediction modeling.Association studies identified 4 and 29 proteins associated with definitive STEMI or mortality, respectively. Prediction models for CS and mortality (holding two and five proteins, respectively) improved the prediction ability as compared with protein-free prediction models; AUC of 0.92 and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSION The association analyses propose individual proteins as putative protein biomarkers for definitive STEMI and survival after suspected STEMI, while the prediction models put forward sets of proteins with putative predicting ability of CS and survival. These proteins may be verified as biomarkers of potential clinical relevance.
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A Novel Predictive Model for In-Hospital Mortality Based on a Combination of Multiple Blood Variables in Patients with ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction. J Clin Med 2020; 9:jcm9030852. [PMID: 32245024 PMCID: PMC7141500 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2020] [Revised: 03/16/2020] [Accepted: 03/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
In emergency clinical settings, it may be beneficial to use rapidly measured objective variables for the risk assessment for patient outcome. This study sought to develop an easy-to-measure and objective risk-score prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). A total of 1027 consecutive STEMI patients were recruited and divided into derivation (n = 669) and validation (n = 358) cohorts. A risk-score model was created based on the combination of blood test parameters obtained immediately after admission. In the derivation cohort, multivariate analysis showed that the following 5 variables were significantly associated with in-hospital death: estimated glomerular filtration rate <45 mL/min/1.73 m2, platelet count <15 × 104/μL, albumin ≤3.5 g/dL, high-sensitivity troponin I >1.6 ng/mL, and blood sugar ≥200 mg/dL. The risk score was weighted for those variables according to their odds ratios. An incremental change in the scores was significantly associated with elevated in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed adequate discrimination between patients with and without in-hospital death (derivation cohort: area under the curve (AUC) 0.853; validation cohort: AUC 0.879), and there was no significant difference in the AUC values between the laboratory-based and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score (p = 0.721). Thus, our laboratory-based model might be helpful in objectively and accurately predicting in-hospital mortality in STEMI patients.
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A Nomogram Based on Apelin-12 for the Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention among Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction. Cardiovasc Ther 2020; 2020:9416803. [PMID: 32099583 PMCID: PMC7026703 DOI: 10.1155/2020/9416803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2019] [Revised: 01/03/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective This study aimed to establish a clinical prognostic nomogram for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods Information on 464 patients with STEMI who performed PCI procedures was included. After removing patients with incomplete clinical information, a total of 460 patients followed for 2.5 years were randomly divided into evaluation (n = 324) and validation (n = 324) and validation ( Results Apelin-12 change rate, apelin-12 level, age, pathological Q wave, myocardial infarction history, anterior wall myocardial infarction, Killip's classification > I, uric acid, total cholesterol, cTnI, and the left atrial diameter were independently associated with MACEs (all P < 0.05). After incorporating these 11 factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.758 (95%CI = 0.707–0.809) and 0.763 (95%CI = 0.689–0.837) in predicting MACEs in the evaluation and validation cohorts, respectively, and had well-fitted calibration curves. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusions We established and validated a novel nomogram that can provide individual prediction of MACEs for patients with STEMI after PCI procedures in a Chinese population. This practical prognostic nomogram may help clinicians in decision making and enable a more accurate risk assessment.
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Shao C, Wang J, Li P, Yang J, Wang W, Wang Y, Zhao Y, Ni L, Tian J, Zhang K, Gao J, Tang YD, Yang Y. Evaluation of a risk index for predicting short-term and long-term outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Catheter Cardiovasc Interv 2020; 95 Suppl 1:542-549. [PMID: 31922355 DOI: 10.1002/ccd.28706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2019] [Accepted: 12/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of the admission risk index (RI) to predict short-term and long-term outcomes in a broad population with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using data from the Chinese Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry. BACKGROUND The RI was developed as a simple tool to predict risk of death in STEMI patients. The performance in predicting short-term and long-term risk of death in Chinese patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention and conservative treatment for STEMI remains unclear. METHODS Age, heart rate (HR), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were used to calculate RI using (HR×[age/10]2 )/SBP. We used the prediction tool to predict mortality over 12 months. RESULTS The C-index of the admission RI for predicting in-hospital, 1-, 6-, and 12-months mortality were 0.78, 0.78, 0.78, and 0.77, respectively, compared with 0.75 of the Global Registry in Acute Coronary Events score. Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the RI was categorized into quintiles for convenient clinical use, and it revealed a nearly 15-fold gradient of increasing mortality from 2.29 to 32.5% (p < .0001) while RI >34 had the highest mortality. By categorizing into five different risk groups, the short-term and long-term mortality of patients receiving different treatments could be distinguished. CONCLUSIONS RI based on three routine variables and easily calculated by any medical practitioner is useful for predicting in-hospital and long-term mortality in patients with STEMI at the initial consultation with clinicians.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunli Shao
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jingjia Wang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Ping Li
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jingang Yang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wenyao Wang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Wang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yanyan Zhao
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Lin Ni
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jian Tian
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Kuo Zhang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Gao
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Hebei, China
| | - Yi-Da Tang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yuejin Yang
- The State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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Supeł K, Kacprzak M, Zielińska M. Shock index and TIMI risk index as valuable prognostic tools in patients with acute coronary syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0227374. [PMID: 31899776 PMCID: PMC6941816 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of the shock index (SI) and the TIMI risk index (TRI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Index) one hour after successful primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome complicated by cardiogenic shock (CS). Methods Forty-seven consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by CS were included in this prospective observational study. All patients underwent pPCI and obtained TIMI Grade Flow 3. SI and TRI were calculated one hour after pPCI. Results The primary endpoint—death from cardiovascular causes—occurred in 17 patients (36%). All calculated parameters were significantly higher in fatal CS than in the non-fatal CS group. A multivariate logistic regression model found only TRI to be an independent, significant predictor of death in the study group, with a proposed cut-off point of 66, with sensitivity 76.5% and specificity 83.3% (AUC 0.811, p = 0.00001). Conclusions The simple parameters of clinical assessment—SI and TRI—calculated one hour after a successful pPCI of infarct related artery are important predictors of death in AMI complicated by cardiogenic shock.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karolina Supeł
- Intensive Cardiac Therapy Clinic, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
- * E-mail:
| | - Michał Kacprzak
- Intensive Cardiac Therapy Clinic, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
| | - Marzenna Zielińska
- Intensive Cardiac Therapy Clinic, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
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El-Menyar A, Al Habib KF, Zubaid M, Alsheikh-Ali AA, Sulaiman K, Almahmeed W, Amin H, AlMotarreb A, Ullah A, Suwaidi JA. Utility of shock index in 24,636 patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL-ACUTE CARDIOVASCULAR CARE 2019; 9:546-556. [PMID: 31702396 DOI: 10.1177/2048872619886307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Shock index is a bedside reflection of integrated response of the cardiovascular and nervous systems. We aimed to evaluate the utility of shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) in patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS We analyzed pooled data from seven Arabian Gulf registries; these ACS registries were carried out in seven countries (Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen) between 2005 and 2017. A standard uniform coding strategy was used to recode each database using each registry protocol and clinical research form. Patients were categorized into two groups based on their initial shock index (low vs. high shock index). Optimal shock index cutoff was determined according to the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Primary outcome was hospital mortality. RESULTS A total of 24,636 ACS patients met the inclusion criteria with a mean age 57±13 years. Based on ROC analysis, the optimal shock index was 0.80 (83.5% had shock index <0.80 and 16.5% had shock index ≥0.80). In patients with high shock index, 55% had ST-elevation myocardial infarction and 45% had non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Patients with high shock index were more likely to have diabetes mellitus, late presentation, door to electrocardiogram >10 min, symptom to Emergency Department > 3 h, anterior myocardial infarction, impaired left ventricular function, no reperfusion post-therapy, recurrent ischemia/myocardial infarction, tachyarrhythmia and stroke. However, high shock index was associated significantly with less chest pain, less thrombolytic therapy and less primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Shock index correlated significantly with pulse pressure (r= -0.52), mean arterial pressure (r= -0.48), Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score (r =0.41) and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction simple risk index (r= -0.59). Shock index ≥0.80 predicted mortality in ACS with 49% sensitivity, 85% specificity, 97.6% negative predictive value and 0.6 negative likelihood ratio. Multivariate regression analysis showed that shock index was an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.40, p<0.001), heart failure (aOR 1.67, p<0.001) and cardiogenic shock (aOR 3.70, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Although shock index is the least accurate of the ones tested, its simplicity may argue in favor of its use for early risk stratification in patients with ACS. The utility of shock index is equally good for ST-elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome. High shock index identifies patients at increased risk of in-hospital mortality and urges physicians in the Emergency Department to use aggressive management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ayman El-Menyar
- Clinical Medicine, Weill Cornel Medical College, Doha, Qatar.,Clinical Research, Hamad General Hospital, Doha, Qatar
| | - Khalid F Al Habib
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, King Fahad Cardiac Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, KSA
| | - Mohammad Zubaid
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait
| | - Alawi A Alsheikh-Ali
- College of Medicine, Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dubai, UAE
| | | | - Wael Almahmeed
- Heart and Vascular Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - Haitham Amin
- Department of Cardiology, Mohammed Bin Khalifa Cardiac Center, Manamah, Bahrain
| | - Ahmed AlMotarreb
- Department of Cardiology, Faculty of Medicine, Sana'a University, Yemen
| | - Anhar Ullah
- Department of Cardiac Sciences, King Fahad Cardiac Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, KSA
| | - Jassim Al Suwaidi
- Cardiology Department, Heart Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
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Çınar T, Karabağ Y, Burak C, Tanık VO, Yesin M, Çağdaş M, Rencüzoğulları İ. A simple score for the prediction of stent thrombosis in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction: TIMI risk index. J Cardiovasc Thorac Res 2019; 11:182-188. [PMID: 31579457 PMCID: PMC6759620 DOI: 10.15171/jcvtr.2019.31] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2019] [Accepted: 07/22/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: The present study aimed to evaluate the potential utility of thrombosis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) for the prediction of stent thrombosis (ST) in ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who were treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention ( pPCI ). Methods: This retrospective study was related to the clinical data of 1275 consecutive STEMI patients who underwent pPCI from January 2013 to January 2018. The TRI was calculated for each patient, and the following equation was used; TRI = heart rate x [age/10]2/systolic blood pressure. For the definition of ST, the criteria as proposed by the Academic Research Consortium were applied. Results: The incidence of ST was 3.2% (n=42 patients) in the study. The median value of the TRI was significantly elevated in patients with ST compared to those without ST (22 [17-32] vs. 16 [11-21], P<0.001, respectively). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, the TRI was an independent predictor of ST (odds ratio [OR]: 1.061; 95% CI: 1.038-1.085; P<0.001). In a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal value of the TRI for the prediction of ST was 25.8 with a sensitivity of 45.2% and a specificity of 86.4%. Conclusion: The present study finding has demonstrated that the TRI may be an independent predictor of ST in STEMI patients who were treated with pPCI . To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the literature in which the TRI and its relationship with ST was evaluated in STEMI patients treated with pPCI .
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Affiliation(s)
- Tufan Çınar
- Health Sciences University, Sultan Abdülhamid Han Training and Research Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Yavuz Karabağ
- Kafkas University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Kars, Turkey
| | - Cengiz Burak
- Kafkas University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Kars, Turkey
| | - Veysel Ozan Tanık
- Ankara Dışkapı Yıldırım Beyazıt Training and Research Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Mahmut Yesin
- Kafkas University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Kars, Turkey
| | - Metin Çağdaş
- Kafkas University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Kars, Turkey
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KAsH: A new tool to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with myocardial infarction. Rev Port Cardiol 2019; 38:681-688. [DOI: 10.1016/j.repc.2019.12.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2018] [Accepted: 12/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
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Ponte Monteiro J, Costa Rodrigues R, Neto M, Sousa JA, Mendonça F, Gomes Serrão M, Santos N, Silva B, Faria AP, Pereira D, Henriques E, Freitas AD, Mendonça I. KAsH: A new tool to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with myocardial infarction. REVISTA PORTUGUESA DE CARDIOLOGIA (ENGLISH EDITION) 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.repce.2020.01.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
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Gil J, Abreu L, Antunes H, Gonçalves ML, Pires MI, Santos LFD, Henriques C, Matos A, Cabral JC, Santos JO. Application of Risks Scores in Acute Coronary Syndromes. How Does ProACS Hold Up Against Other Risks Scores? Arq Bras Cardiol 2019; 113:20-30. [PMID: 31271599 PMCID: PMC6684178 DOI: 10.5935/abc.20190109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2018] [Accepted: 10/10/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Multiple risk scores (RS) are approved in the prediction of worse prognosis in acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Recently, the Portuguese Journal of Cardiology has proposed the ProACS RS. OBJECTIVE Application of several validated RS, as well as ProACS in patients, admitted for ACS. Evaluation of each RS's performance in predicting in-hospital mortality and the occurrence of all-cause mortality or non-fatal ACS at one-year follow-up and compare them to the ProACS RS. METHODS A retrospective study of ACS was performed. The following RS were applied: GRACE, ACTION Registry-GWTG, PURSUIT, TIMI, EMMACE, SRI, CHA2DS2-VASc-HS, C-ACS and ProACS. ROC Curves were created to determine the predictive power for each RS and then were directly compared to ProACS. RESULTS The ProACS, ACTION Registry-GWTG and GRACE showed a c-statistics of 0.908, 0.904 and 0.890 for predicting in-hospital mortality, respectively, performing better in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients. The other RS performed satisfactorily, with c-statistics over 0.750, apart from the CHA2DS2-VASc-HS and C-ACS which underperformed. All RS underperformed in predicting worse long-term prognosis revealing c-statistics under 0.700. CONCLUSION ProACS is an easily obtained risk score for early stratification of in-hospital mortality. When evaluating all RS, the ProACS, ACTION Registry-GWTG and GRACE RS showed the best performance, demonstrating high capability of predicting a worse prognosis. ProACS was able to demonstrate statistically significant superiority when compared to almost all RS. Thus, the ProACS has showed that it is able to combine simplicity in the calculation of the score with good performance in predicting a worse prognosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Júlio Gil
- Hospital de São Teotónio, Viseu - Portugal
| | - Luís Abreu
- Hospital de São Teotónio, Viseu - Portugal
| | | | | | | | | | - Carla Henriques
- Instituto Politécnico de Viseu e CI&DETS, Viseu - Portugal.,Centro de Matemática da Universidade de Coimbra (CMUC), Coimbra - Portugal
| | - Ana Matos
- Instituto Politécnico de Viseu e CI&DETS, Viseu - Portugal
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Kaboré EG, Yameogo NV, Seghda A, Kagambèga L, Kologo J, Millogo G, Tall/Thiam A, Samadoulougou AK, Zabsonré P. [Evolution profiles of acute coronary syndromes and GRACE, TIMI and SRI risk scores in Burkina Faso. A monocentric study of 111 patients]. Ann Cardiol Angeiol (Paris) 2019; 68:107-114. [PMID: 30683480 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancard.2018.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2017] [Accepted: 09/07/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aims of this study was to assess evolution profile of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) based on risk level by GRACE, TIMI and SRI scores in the cardiology department, Yalgado Ouedraogo university hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS This was a prospective study of 111 consecutive patients admitted for ACS (mean age 57.61 years, 77.5% male) between January 1st and 2010 to May 31st 2015 in the department of cardiology. For each patient, risk scores were calculated and they were divided into risk group. Global survival at one month was described by Kaplan Meier method and prognostic factors were analyzed by multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS The prevalence of ACS was 4.2%. Patients were admitted for ST-elevation ACS and non-ST-elevation ACS in 88.3% and 11.7%, respectively. Nineteen patients (17.1%) were admitted before the 12th hour. Hospital mortality was 8.1% and increased to 16.2% in one month. After risk stratification, one-month survival of patients with high risk, was shorter than patients at low-risk regardless of the score GRACE (log-rank=9.93, P=0.007), TIMI (log-rank=14.91, P=0.001) and SRI (log-rank=10.01, P=0.006). GRACE score (HR=1.01; P=0.002), TIMI (HR=1.33; P=0.01) and SRI (HR=1.02; P=0.01) were major prognostic factors for overall survival. CONCLUSION ACS remains a serious disease with high morbidity and mortality in the days following the initial accident. These risk scores are applicable tools in Burkina Faso as evidenced statistic C (GRACE=0.75, TIMI=0.78 and SRI=0.74).
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Affiliation(s)
- E G Kaboré
- Centre hospitalier régional de Tenkodogo, BP 56, Tenkodogo, Burkina Faso; Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
| | - N V Yameogo
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - A Seghda
- Centre hospitalier régional de Gaoua, BP 03, Gaoua, Burkina Faso; Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - L Kagambèga
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - J Kologo
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - G Millogo
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - A Tall/Thiam
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - A K Samadoulougou
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; Service de cardiologie, hôpital de district de Bogodogo, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - P Zabsonré
- Service de cardiologie, CHU Yalgado Ouédraogo, 03 BP, 7022 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
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A New and Simple Risk Predictor of Contrast-Induced Nephropathy in Patients Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: TIMI Risk Index. Cardiol Res Pract 2018; 2018:5908215. [PMID: 30356419 PMCID: PMC6178187 DOI: 10.1155/2018/5908215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk index (TRI) was developed to estimate prognosis at the initial contact of the healthcare provider in coronary artery disease patients without laboratory parameters. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship of the baseline TRI and contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods A total of 963 consecutive STEMI diagnosed patients who underwent primary percutaneous intervention were included in the study. TRI was calculated using the formula “heart rate × (age/10) 2/SBP” on admission. CIN was defined as an increase in serum creatinine concentration ≥25%, 48 hours later over the baseline. Results Of the total of 963 patients, CIN was observed in 13% (n=128). TRI was significantly higher in the CIN (+) group compared with the CIN (−) group (32.9 ± 18.8 vs 19.9 ± 9.9, P < 0.001). There was a stronger correlation between CIN and age, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, Killip class, left ventricular ejection fraction, amount of contrast media, and diabetes mellitus. The amount of contrast media (OR 1.010, 95% CI 1.007–1.012, P < 0.001) and TRI (OR 1.047, 95% CI 1.020–1.075, P=001) were independent predictors of CIN. The best threshold TRI for predicting CIN was ≥25.8, with a 67.1% sensitivity and 80.4% specificity (area under the curve (AUC): 0.740, 95% CI: 0.711–0.768, P < 0.001). Conclusion TRI is an independent predictor of CIN, and it may be used as a simple and reliable risk assessment of CIN in STEMI patients without the need for laboratory parameters.
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Buccheri S, D’Arrigo P, Franchina G, Capodanno D. Risk Stratification in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: A Practical Walkthrough in the Landscape of Prognostic Risk Models. Interv Cardiol 2018; 13:112-120. [PMID: 30443266 PMCID: PMC6234492 DOI: 10.15420/icr.2018.16.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2018] [Accepted: 08/15/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Although a combination of multiple strategies to prevent and treat coronary artery disease (CAD) has led to a relative reduction in cardiovascular mortality over recent decades, CAD remains the greatest cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A variety of individual factors and circumstances other than clinical presentation and treatment type contribute to determining the outcome of CAD. It is increasingly understood that personalised medicine, by taking these factors into account, achieves better results than "one-size-fitsall" approaches. In recent years, the multiplication of risk scoring systems for CAD has generated some degree of uncertainty regarding whether, when and how predictive models should be adopted when making clinical decisions. Against this background, this article reviews the most accepted risk models for patients with evidence of CAD to provide practical guidance within the current landscape of tools developed for prognostic risk stratification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Buccheri
- CAST, AOU. Policlinico-Vittorio Emanuele, University of CataniaCatania, Italy
- Department of Medical Sciences, Cardiology and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala UniversityUppsala, Sweden
| | - Paolo D’Arrigo
- CAST, AOU. Policlinico-Vittorio Emanuele, University of CataniaCatania, Italy
| | - Gabriele Franchina
- CAST, AOU. Policlinico-Vittorio Emanuele, University of CataniaCatania, Italy
| | - Davide Capodanno
- CAST, AOU. Policlinico-Vittorio Emanuele, University of CataniaCatania, Italy
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Reindl M, Reinstadler SJ, Tiller C, Kofler M, Theurl M, Klier N, Fleischmann K, Mayr A, Henninger B, Klug G, Metzler B. ACEF score adapted to ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients: The ACEF-STEMI score. Int J Cardiol 2018; 264:18-24. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2018.04.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Revised: 03/19/2018] [Accepted: 04/05/2018] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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Zaninović Jurjević T, Dvornik Š, Kovačić S, Matana Kaštelan Z, Brumini G, Matana A, Zaputović L. A simple prognostic model for assessing in-hospital mortality risk in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure. Acta Clin Belg 2018; 74:102-109. [DOI: 10.1080/17843286.2018.1483562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Štefica Dvornik
- Department for Laboratory Diagnostics, Clinical Hospital Centre Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia
| | - Slavica Kovačić
- Department for Radiology, Clinical Hospital Centre Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia
| | | | - Gordana Brumini
- Faculty of Health Studies, Department for Basic Medical Sciences University of Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia
| | - Ante Matana
- Department for Cardiovascular Diseases, Clinical Hospital Centre Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia
| | - Luka Zaputović
- Department for Cardiovascular Diseases, Clinical Hospital Centre Rijeka, Rijeka, Croatia
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Zuin M, Conte L, Picariello C, Pastore G, Vassiliev D, Lanza D, Zonzin P, Zuliani G, Rigatelli G, Roncon L. TIMI Risk Index as a Predictor of 30-Day Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pulmonary Embolism. Heart Lung Circ 2018; 27:190-198. [PMID: 28487060 DOI: 10.1016/j.hlc.2017.02.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2016] [Revised: 02/10/2017] [Accepted: 02/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Available studies have already identified age, heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as strong predictors of early mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). MATERIAL AND METHODS One-hundred-seventy patients, with acute PE confirmed on computed tomography angiography (CTA) were enrolled. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) was calculated using the formula [heart rate (HR) x (AGE/102)/ systolic blood pressure (SBP)]. Study outcomes were 30-day mortality and/or clinical deterioration. RESULTS Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed that a TRI ≥45 was highly specific for both outcomes (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-0.98, p<0.0001) with a positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 8.3 and 96% for 30-day mortality while PPV and NPV for 30-day mortality and/or clinical deterioration were 21.1 and 98.2%, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis showed that TRI ≥45 was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (O.R. 22.24, 95% CI 2.54-194.10, p=0.005) independently from positive cTnI and RVD (O.R. 9.57, 95% CI 1.88-48.78, p=0.007; OR 24.99, 95% CI 2.84-219.48, p=0.004). Similarly, 30-day mortality and/or clinical deterioration was predicted by TRI ≥45 (O.R. 11.57, 95% CI 2.36-56.63, p=0.003) and thrombolysis (3.83, 95% CI 1.04-14.09, p=0.043), independently from age, RVD and positive cTnI. Cox regression analysis confirmed the role of TRI as independent predictor for both outcomes. Mantel-Cox analysis showed that after 30-day follow-up there was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of survival between patients with and without TRI ≥45 [log rank (Mantel-Cox) chi-square 17.04, p<0.0001]. CONCLUSIONS Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk index (TRI) predicted both 30-days mortality (all-causes) and/or clinical deterioration in patients with acute PE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Zuin
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy; Section of Internal and Cardiopulmonary Medicine, Department of Medical Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
| | - Luca Conte
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
| | - Claudio Picariello
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
| | - Gianni Pastore
- Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology Unit, Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
| | - Dobrin Vassiliev
- Cardiology Clinic, Alexandroska University Hospital, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Daniela Lanza
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
| | - Pietro Zonzin
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
| | - Giovanni Zuliani
- Section of Internal and Cardiopulmonary Medicine, Department of Medical Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy
| | - Gianluca Rigatelli
- Section of Adult Congenital and Adult Heart Disease, Cardiovascular Diagnosis and Endoluminal Interventions, Rovigo General Hospital, Italy
| | - Loris Roncon
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Rovigo, Italy.
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Stevanović M, Stanković G. Comparison of predictive value of five risk scores in patients with myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. MEDICINSKI PODMLADAK 2018. [DOI: 10.5937/mp69-13848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022] Open
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Ricci B, Cenko E, Vasiljevic Z, Stankovic G, Kedev S, Kalpak O, Vavlukis M, Zdravkovic M, Hinic S, Milicic D, Manfrini O, Badimon L, Bugiardini R. Acute Coronary Syndrome: The Risk to Young Women. J Am Heart Assoc 2017; 6:e007519. [PMID: 29273636 PMCID: PMC5779054 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.117.007519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2017] [Accepted: 11/01/2017] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although acute coronary syndrome (ACS) mainly occurs in patients >50 years, younger patients can be affected as well. We used an age cutoff of 45 years to investigate clinical characteristics and outcomes of "young" patients with ACS. METHODS AND RESULTS Between October 2010 and April 2016, 14 931 patients with ACS were enrolled in the ISACS-TC (International Survey of Acute Coronary Syndromes in Transitional Countries) registry. Of these patients, 1182 (8%) were aged ≤45 years (mean age, 40.3 years; 15.8% were women). The primary end point was 30-day all-cause mortality. Percentage diameter stenosis of ≤50% was defined as insignificant coronary disease. ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction was the most common clinical manifestation of ACS in the young cases (68% versus 59.6%). Young patients had a higher incidence of insignificant coronary artery disease (11.4% versus 10.1%) and lesser extent of significant disease (single vessel, 62.7% versus 46.6%). The incidence of 30-day death was 1.3% versus 6.9% for the young and older patients, respectively. After correction for baseline and clinical differences, age ≤45 years was a predictor of survival in men (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-0.58), but not in women (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-3.62). This pattern of reversed risk among sexes held true after multivariable correction for in-hospital medications and reperfusion therapy. Moreover, younger women had worse outcomes than men of a similar age (odds ratio, 6.03; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-17.53). CONCLUSION ACS at a young age is characterized by less severe coronary disease and high prevalence of ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Women have higher mortality than men. Young age is an independent predictor of lower 30-day mortality in men, but not in women. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov/. Unique identifier: NCT01218776.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beatrice Ricci
- Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialty Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy
| | - Edina Cenko
- Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialty Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy
| | - Zorana Vasiljevic
- Clinical Center of Serbia, Medical Faculty, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Goran Stankovic
- Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialty Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy
| | - Sasko Kedev
- University Clinic of Cardiology, Medical Faculty, University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, Macedonia
| | - Oliver Kalpak
- University Clinic of Cardiology, Medical Faculty, University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, Macedonia
| | - Marija Vavlukis
- University Clinic of Cardiology, Medical Faculty, University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, Macedonia
| | - Marija Zdravkovic
- University Clinical Hospital Center Bezanijska Kosa, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Sasa Hinic
- University Clinical Hospital Center Bezanijska Kosa, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Davor Milicic
- Department for Cardiovascular Diseases, University Hospital Center Zagreb, University of Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Olivia Manfrini
- Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialty Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy
| | - Lina Badimon
- Cardiovascular Research Institute (ICCC), CiberCV-Institute Carlos III, IIB-Sant Pau, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain
| | - Raffaele Bugiardini
- Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialty Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy
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Jneid H, Addison D, Bhatt DL, Fonarow GC, Gokak S, Grady KL, Green LA, Heidenreich PA, Ho PM, Jurgens CY, King ML, Kumbhani DJ, Pancholy S. 2017 AHA/ACC Clinical Performance and Quality Measures for Adults With ST-Elevation and Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Performance Measures. J Am Coll Cardiol 2017; 70:2048-2090. [PMID: 28943066 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2017.06.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 136] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
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Jneid H, Addison D, Bhatt DL, Fonarow GC, Gokak S, Grady KL, Green LA, Heidenreich PA, Ho PM, Jurgens CY, King ML, Kumbhani DJ, Pancholy S. 2017 AHA/ACC Clinical Performance and Quality Measures for Adults With ST-Elevation and Non–ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Performance Measures. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2017; 10:HCQ.0000000000000032. [DOI: 10.1161/hcq.0000000000000032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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Wang R, Mei B, Liao X, Lu X, Yan L, Lin M, Zhong Y, Chen Y, You T. Determination of risk factors affecting the in-hospital prognosis of patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2017; 17:243. [PMID: 28899364 PMCID: PMC5596504 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-017-0660-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2017] [Accepted: 08/10/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To determine the factors affecting the in-hospital prognosis of patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and to establish its prognostic discriminant model. METHODS A total of 701 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing PCI were enrolled in this study. The patients were divided into two groups, good prognosis and poor prognosis, based on whether the patient had adverse outcomes (death or heart function ≥ grade III) at discharge. Demographic and basic clinical characteristics, diagnosis at admission (e.g., ventricular function, complications, or hyperlipidemia), and biomedical indicators (e.g., blood count, basal metabolism and biochemical composition, blood lipid and glucose levels, myocardial biomarkers, and coagulation) were collected and analyzed. RESULTS We determined 22 factors as risk factors for the in-hospital prognosis of STEMI patients after PCI: age, cardiac function during hospitalization, complications, history of diabetes mellitus, et al., among which the history of diabetes, uric acid, urea nitrogen, and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) were independent risk factors. CONCLUSION We identified four independent risk factors for the in-hospital prognosis of STEMI patients after PCI and generated a prognostic model to predict the adverse outcomes of these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rui Wang
- School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Biqi Mei
- School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Xinlong Liao
- School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Xia Lu
- School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Lulu Yan
- School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Man Lin
- School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Yao Zhong
- School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
| | - Yili Chen
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080 China
| | - Tianhui You
- School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, 510310 China
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Bordejevic DA, Caruntu F, Mornos C, Olariu I, Petrescu L, Tomescu MC, Citu I, Mavrea A, Pescariu S. Prognostic impact of blood pressure and heart rate at admission on in-hospital mortality after primary percutaneous intervention for acute myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation in western Romania. Ther Clin Risk Manag 2017; 13:1061-1068. [PMID: 28883734 PMCID: PMC5574681 DOI: 10.2147/tcrm.s141312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR) on in-hospital mortality in ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients, after primary percutaneous intervention (PCI). Patients and methods The study included 294 patients admitted for STEMI. They were divided into five groups according to the SBP at admission: group I, <105 mmHg; group II, 105–125 mmHg; group III, 126–140 mmHg; group IV, 141–158 mmHg; and group V, ≥159 mmHg. Increased HR was defined as ≥80 beats per minute (bpm). In-hospital death was defined as all-cause death during admission and classified into cardiac and noncardiac death. Results Among the 294 patients admitted for STEMI, 218 (74%) were men. The mean age was 62±17 years. In-hospital mortality rate was 6% (n=18), with 11 (3.7%) deaths having cardiac causes. The highest mortality was registered in group I (n=9, 16%, P=0.018). Compared to the other groups, group I patients were older (P=0.033), more often smokers (P=0.026), and had a history of myocardial infarction (P=0.003), systemic hypertension (P=0.023), diabetes (P=0.041), or chronic kidney disease (P=0.0200). They more often had a HR ≥80 bpm (P=0.028) and a Killip class 3 or 4 at admission (P=0.020). The peak creatine phosphokinase-MB level was significantly higher in this group (P=0.005), while the angiographic findings more often identified as culprit lesions were the right coronary artery (P=0.005), the left main trunk (P=0.040), or a multivessel coronary artery disease (P=0.044). Multivariate analysis showed that group I patients had a significantly higher risk for both all-cause death (P=0.006) and cardiac death (P=0.003). Patients with HR ≥80 bpm also had higher mortality rates (P=0.0272 for general mortality and P=0.0280 for cardiac mortality). Conclusion The present study suggests that SBP <105 mmHg and HR ≥80 bpm at admission of STEMI patients are associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death, even after primary PCI.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Cristian Mornos
- Cardiology Department, "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | - Ioan Olariu
- Cardiology Department, "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | - Lucian Petrescu
- Cardiology Department, "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
| | | | | | | | - Sorin Pescariu
- Cardiology Department, "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania
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