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Pang TS, Cao LP. Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system for predicting complications following abdominal surgery: A meta-analysis spanning 2004 to 2022. World J Gastrointest Surg 2024; 16:215-227. [PMID: 38328319 PMCID: PMC10845291 DOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v16.i1.215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Revised: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners. AIM To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system's efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery. METHODS A systematic search of published studies was conducted, yielding 17 studies with pertinent data. Parameters such as preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), comprehensive risk score (CRS), postoperative complications, postoperative mortality, and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis. Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables, with χ2 tests assessing heterogeneity (P value). RESULTS Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications [mean difference and 95% confidence interval (CI) of PRS: 0.10 (0.05-0.15); SSS: 0.04 (0.001-0.08); CRS: 0.19 (0.07-0.31)]. Following the exclusion of low-quality studies, results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to heterogeneity in CRS analysis. Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates [odds ratio (OR) (95%CI): 3.01 (1.83-4.95)], with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality [OR (95%CI): 15.49 (3.75-64.01)]. CONCLUSION In summary, postoperative complications in abdominal surgery, as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system, are consistently linked to elevated PRS, SSS, and CRS scores. High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality. This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery, underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tian-Shu Pang
- Department of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310016, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Li-Ping Cao
- Department of General Surgery, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310016, Zhejiang Province, China
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He H, Liu Y, Liu X, Zhang Z, Wang D, Fu W. Evaluation of different scoring systems in the prediction of complications, morbidity, and mortality after laparoscopic radical gastrectomy. World J Surg Oncol 2023; 21:388. [PMID: 38110969 PMCID: PMC10726546 DOI: 10.1186/s12957-023-03282-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This retrospective study aimed to assess the suitability of POSSUM and its modified versions, E-PASS and its modified score, SRS, and SORT scores for predicting postoperative complications and mortality in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data analysis was performed on 349 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical gastrectomy at Tianjin Medical University General Hospital between January 2016 and December 2021. The discriminative ability of the scoring systems was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The primary endpoint focused on the prediction of postoperative complications, while the secondary endpoint assessed the prediction of postoperative mortality. RESULTS Among the scoring systems evaluated, the modified E-PASS (mE-PASS) score exhibited the highest AUC (0.846) and demonstrated the highest sensitivity (81%) and specificity (79%) for predicting postoperative complications. All other scores, except for POSSUM, showed moderate discriminative ability in predicting complications. In terms of predicting postoperative mortality, the E-PASS score had the highest AUC (0.978), while the mE-PASS score displayed the highest sensitivity (76%) and specificity (90%). Notably, both E-PASS and mE-PASS scores exhibited excellent discriminative ability. CONCLUSIONS The P-POSSUM, O-POSSUM, E-PASS, mE-PASS, SRS, and SORT scoring systems are useful tools for predicting postoperative outcomes in laparoscopic radical gastrectomy. Among them, the mE-PASS score demonstrated the best predictive power. However, the POSSUM system could only be applicable to predict postoperative mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoyu He
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Tianjin, 300052, People's Republic of China
| | - Yubiao Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Tianjin, 300052, People's Republic of China
- Department of Anorectal Surgery, Liaocheng People's Hospital, Liaocheng, Shandong, China
| | - Xin Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Tianjin, 300052, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhaoxiong Zhang
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Tianjin, 300052, People's Republic of China
| | - Daohan Wang
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Tianjin, 300052, People's Republic of China
| | - Weihua Fu
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, 154 Anshan Road, Tianjin, 300052, People's Republic of China.
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Norimatsu Y, Ito K, Takemura N, Inagaki F, Mihara F, Kokudo N. Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) Predicts Postoperative Major Complications After Hepato-Pancreato Biliary Surgery in the Elderly. World J Surg 2022; 46:2788-2796. [PMID: 36066664 DOI: 10.1007/s00268-022-06716-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As society ages, an increasing number of elderly patients require hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery. We investigated the risk factors for complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery using surgical risk scoring models. METHODS We retrospectively investigated 184 elderly patients (≥ 65 years old) who underwent HPB surgery, including the liver, pancreas, bile duct, and/or gallbladder resection, with exemption to simple cholecystectomy between January 2017 and December 2019. The surgical risk scoring models used included the Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and Geriatric 8 (G8). We evaluated the correlations between the scores and severe complications. Complications were classified as severe (Clavien-Dindo classification [C-D] ≥ III) or non-severe (C-D ≤ II). RESULTS Complications occurred in 78 patients (24 C-D ≥ III, 54 C-D ≤ II). Preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were significantly higher in patients with C-D ≥ IIIa than in those with C-D ≤ II. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that PRS (P = 0.01) and SSS (P = 0.04) were independent predictive factors for severe complications. However, the POSSUM and G8 models showed no significant correlations to severe complications. CONCLUSION E-PASS is a useful model for predicting complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Norimatsu
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Kyoji Ito
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Nobuyuki Takemura
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan.
| | - Fuyuki Inagaki
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Fuminori Mihara
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
| | - Norihiro Kokudo
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, 1-21-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8655, Japan
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Kato Y, Shigeta K, Tajima Y, Kikuchi H, Hirata A, Nakadai J, Sugiura K, Seo Y, Kondo T, Okui J, Matsui S, Seishima R, Okabayashi K, Kitagawa Y. Comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS as a prognostic indicator for patients after elective and emergency curative colorectal cancer surgery: A multicenter retrospective study. Int J Surg 2022; 101:106631. [PMID: 35447361 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2022.106631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2021] [Revised: 04/09/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prognostic value of the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress for managing patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who underwent elective and emergency colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA CRS, which is calculated based on both clinical and surgical factors, is a good predictor of postoperative complications and mortality. However, the impact of CRS in CRC prognosis remains unclear. METHODS Patients with CRC who underwent curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The cohort was divided into the low and high CRS groups. The prognostic value of CRS was evaluated via Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The CRS cutoff value was obtained using the Youden index applied to OS curves and have not been validated by any validation cohorts. RESULTS In total, 2407 patients, including 1359 and 1048 patients with low and high CRS, respectively, were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analysis revealed that a CRS was an independent prognostic factor of overall and recurrence-free survival regardless of disease stage. Furthermore, adjuvant chemotherapy was beneficial for the survival of patients with stage III CRC in both high and low CRS groups; however, the survival benefit was limited in elderly high CRS patients. CONCLUSIONS CRS was a strong prognostic factor for CRC regardless of disease stage and might be considered as a biomarker for selecting elderly patients who are eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujin Kato
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kohei Shigeta
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
| | - Yuki Tajima
- Department of Surgery, Hiratsuka City Hospital, Hiratsuka, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Hiroto Kikuchi
- Department of Surgery, Hiratsuka City Hospital, Hiratsuka, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Akira Hirata
- Department of Surgery, Hiratsuka City Hospital, Hiratsuka, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Jumpei Nakadai
- Department of Surgery, Saitama City Hospital, Saitama, Saitama, Japan
| | - Kiyoaki Sugiura
- Department of Surgery, Japanese Red Cross Ashikaga Hospital, Ashikaga, Tochigi, Japan
| | - Yuki Seo
- Department of Surgery, Japanese Red Cross Ashikaga Hospital, Ashikaga, Tochigi, Japan
| | - Takayuki Kondo
- Department of Surgery, Kawasaki Municipal Hospital, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Jun Okui
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shimpei Matsui
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ryo Seishima
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Koji Okabayashi
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
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Razdan S, Sljivich M, Pfail J, Wiklund PK, Sfakianos JP, Waingankar N. Predicting morbidity and mortality after radical cystectomy using risk calculators: A comprehensive review of the literature. Urol Oncol 2020; 39:109-120. [PMID: 33223369 DOI: 10.1016/j.urolonc.2020.09.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2020] [Revised: 09/25/2020] [Accepted: 09/29/2020] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Radical cystectomy (RC) with urinary diversion is associated with significant perioperative morbidity and mortality, varying between 30% and 70% and between 0.3% and 10.6%, respectively. Risk calculators have been extensively studied in the general surgery literature to predict 30- and 90-day postoperative morbidity and mortality but have not been widely accepted in the RC literature. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a search of MEDLINE and Embase databases during May 2020 to identify all relevant studies using the following keywords: radical cystectomy, surgical complication predictive model, surgical complication predictive equation, surgical complication predictive nomogram, surgical risk calculator, morbidity, and mortality. We determined the existing surgical predictive nomograms, calculators, and indices and their accuracy in predicting morbidity, mortality, and major complications after RC. RESULTS National Surgical Quality Improvement Program had poor accuracy at predicting 30-day morbidity at mortality (AUC 0.5-0.6). LACE index showed good discrimination at predicting 90-day mortality (AUC 0.7). The various frailty and sarcopenia indices have shown poor to fair accuracy at predicting (AUC 0.5-0.7). The Isbarn and Aziz nomograms have equivalent accuracy at predicting 90-day mortality (AUC 0.7) but are limited by inclusion of tumor histology and presence of metastatic disease as variables. POSSUM and P-POSSUM have poor ability at predicting morbidity and mortality (AUC 0.5) and are cumbersome calculators. The surgical Apgar score has been able to predict 30-day morbidity and mortality but can only be used in the postoperative setting. DISCUSSION The currently available surgical risk calculators have either poor accuracy at predicting post-RC morbidity and mortality or are limited by types of variables included. An ideal risk calculator would be comprised of preoperative factors only and have a high accuracy to serve as a tool for preoperative patient counseling prior to surgery. CONCLUSION There exists a strong need to develop a comprehensive and accurate preoperative risk calculator that predicts morbidity and mortality after RC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shirin Razdan
- Department of Urology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY
| | - Michaela Sljivich
- Department of Urology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY
| | - John Pfail
- Department of Urology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY
| | - Peter K Wiklund
- Department of Urology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY
| | - John P Sfakianos
- Department of Urology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY
| | - Nikhil Waingankar
- Department of Urology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY.
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Reilly JR, Gabbe BJ, Brown WA, Hodgson CL, Myles PS. Systematic review of perioperative mortality risk prediction models for adults undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery. ANZ J Surg 2020; 91:860-870. [PMID: 32935458 DOI: 10.1111/ans.16255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2020] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk prediction tools can be used in the perioperative setting to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from increased surveillance and monitoring in the postoperative period, to aid shared decision-making, and to benchmark risk-adjusted hospital performance. We evaluated perioperative risk prediction tools relevant to an Australian context. METHODS A systematic review of perioperative mortality risk prediction tools used for adults undergoing inpatient noncardiac surgery, published between 2011 and 2019 (following an earlier systematic review). We searched Medline via OVID using medical subject headings consistent with the three main areas of risk, surgery and mortality/morbidity. A similar search was conducted in Embase. Tools predicting morbidity but not mortality were excluded, as were those predicting a composite outcome that did not report predictive performance for mortality separately. Tools were also excluded if they were specifically designed for use in cardiac or other highly specialized surgery, emergency surgery, paediatrics or elderly patients. RESULTS Literature search identified 2568 studies for screening, of which 19 studies identified 21 risk prediction tools for inclusion. CONCLUSION Four tools are candidates for adapting in the Australian context, including the Surgical Mortality Probability Model (SMPM), Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM), Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and NZRISK. SORT has similar predictive performance to POSPOM, using only six variables instead of 17, contains all variables of the SMPM, and the original model developed in the UK has already been successfully adapted in New Zealand as NZRISK. Collecting the SORT and NZRISK variables in a national surgical outcomes study in Australia would present an opportunity to simultaneously investigate three of our four shortlisted models and to develop a locally valid perioperative mortality risk prediction model with high predictive performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer R Reilly
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Belinda J Gabbe
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Wendy A Brown
- Department of Surgery, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Surgery, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Carol L Hodgson
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Paul S Myles
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Nymo LS, Kleive D, Waardal K, Bringeland EA, Søreide JA, Labori KJ, Mortensen KE, Søreide K, Lassen K. Centralizing a national pancreatoduodenectomy service: striking the right balance. BJS Open 2020; 4:904-913. [PMID: 32893988 PMCID: PMC7528527 DOI: 10.1002/bjs5.50342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Revised: 06/23/2020] [Accepted: 07/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Centralization of pancreatic surgery is currently called for owing to superior outcomes in higher‐volume centres. Conversely, organizational and patient concerns speak for a moderation in centralization. Consensus on the optimal balance has not yet been reached. This observational study presents a volume–outcome analysis of a complete national cohort in a health system with long‐standing centralization. Methods Data for all pancreatoduodenectomies in Norway in 2015 and 2016 were identified through a national quality registry and completed through electronic patient journals. Hospitals were dichotomized (high‐volume (40 or more procedures/year) or medium–low‐volume). Results Some 394 procedures were performed (201 in high‐volume and 193 in medium–low‐volume units). Major postoperative complications occurred in 125 patients (31·7 per cent). A clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 66 patients (16·8 per cent). Some 17 patients (4·3 per cent) died within 90 days, and the failure‐to‐rescue rate was 13·6 per cent (17 of 125 patients). In multivariable comparison with the high‐volume centre, medium–low‐volume units had similar overall complication rates, lower 90‐day mortality (odds ratio 0·24, 95 per cent c.i. 0·07 to 0·82) and no tendency for a higher failure‐to‐rescue rate. Conclusion Centralization beyond medium volume will probably not improve on 90‐day mortality or failure‐to‐rescue rates after pancreatoduodenectomy.
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Affiliation(s)
- L S Nymo
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North, Tromsø, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - D Kleive
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - K Waardal
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
| | - E A Bringeland
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, St Olav Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway.,Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - J A Søreide
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.,Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway
| | - K J Labori
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - K E Mortensen
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North, Tromsø, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - K Søreide
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.,Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway
| | - K Lassen
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.,Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
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Fukuoka E, Matsuda T, Hasegawa H, Yamashita K, Arimoto A, Takiguchi G, Yamamoto M, Kanaji S, Oshikiri T, Nakamura T, Suzuki S, Kakeji Y. Laparoscopic vs open surgery for colorectal cancer patients with high American Society of Anesthesiologists classes. Asian J Endosc Surg 2020; 13:336-342. [PMID: 31852023 DOI: 10.1111/ases.12766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2019] [Revised: 10/12/2019] [Accepted: 10/24/2019] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Laparoscopic surgery has become popular for colorectal cancer treatment in recent years. However, its success rate even among high-risk patients remains debatable. The present study aims to compare the short- and long-term outcomes between laparoscopic and open surgeries in the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classes 3 and 4 patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS This was a single-center, retrospective, cohort study performed at a university hospital, with 78 patients suffering from colorectal cancer who underwent surgery in ASA classes 3 and 4 as respondents. Patient and tumor characteristics, operative outcomes, and prognoses were factors compared between the open and laparoscopic groups. RESULTS Compared with the open group, laparoscopic group had longer operation time (median 287.5 vs 204.5 minutes, P = .001), less operative blood loss (median 40 vs 240 mL, P = .020), and fewer postoperative complications (24% vs 55%, P = .011). In addition, operative approach (open vs laparoscopic) served as an independent factor for the occurrence of postoperative complications [HR = 3.963 (1.344-12.269), P = .013]. In terms of overall survival and recurrence-free survival (P = .171 and .087, respectively), no significant difference was found between the two groups. CONCLUSION Laparoscopic surgery is thus associated with more favorable short-time outcomes and could be adopted as treatment even for colorectal cancer ASA class 3 and 4 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eiji Fukuoka
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Takeru Matsuda
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan.,Division of Minimally Invasive Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Hasegawa
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Kimihiro Yamashita
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Akira Arimoto
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Gosuke Takiguchi
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Masashi Yamamoto
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Shingo Kanaji
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Taro Oshikiri
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Tetsu Nakamura
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Satoshi Suzuki
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Yoshihiro Kakeji
- Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
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Shinall MC, Arya S, Youk A, Varley P, Shah R, Massarweh NN, Shireman PK, Johanning JM, Brown AJ, Christie NA, Crist L, Curtin CM, Drolet BC, Dhupar R, Griffin J, Ibinson JW, Johnson JT, Kinney S, LaGrange C, Langerman A, Loyd GE, Mady LJ, Mott MP, Patri M, Siebler JC, Stimson CJ, Thorell WE, Vincent SA, Hall DE. Association of Preoperative Patient Frailty and Operative Stress With Postoperative Mortality. JAMA Surg 2020; 155:e194620. [PMID: 31721994 DOI: 10.1001/jamasurg.2019.4620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 227] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Importance Patients with frailty have higher risk for postoperative mortality and complications; however, most research has focused on small groups of high-risk procedures. The associations among frailty, operative stress, and mortality are poorly understood. Objective To assess the association between frailty and mortality at varying levels of operative stress as measured by the Operative Stress Score, a novel measure created for this study. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective cohort study included veterans in the Veterans Administration Surgical Quality Improvement Program from April 1, 2010, through March 31, 2014, who underwent a noncardiac surgical procedure at Veterans Health Administration Hospitals and had information available on vital status (whether the patient was alive or deceased) at 1 year postoperatively. A Delphi consensus method was used to stratify surgical procedures into 5 categories of physiologic stress. Exposures Frailty as measured by the Risk Analysis Index and operative stress as measured by the Operative Stress Score. Main Outcomes and Measures Postoperative mortality at 30, 90, and 180 days. Results Of 432 828 unique patients (401 453 males [92.8%]; mean (SD) age, 61.0 [12.9] years), 36 579 (8.5%) were frail and 9113 (2.1%) were very frail. The 30-day mortality rate among patients who were frail and underwent the lowest-stress surgical procedures (eg, cystoscopy) was 1.55% (95% CI, 1.20%-1.97%) and among patients with frailty who underwent the moderate-stress surgical procedures (eg, laparoscopic cholecystectomy) was 5.13% (95% CI, 4.79%-5.48%); these rates exceeded the 1% mortality rate often used to define high-risk surgery. Among patients who were very frail, 30-day mortality rates were higher after the lowest-stress surgical procedures (10.34%; 95% CI, 7.73%-13.48%) and after the moderate-stress surgical procedures (18.74%; 95% CI, 17.72%-19.80%). For patients who were frail and very frail, mortality continued to increase at 90 and 180 days, reaching 43.00% (95% CI, 41.69%-44.32%) for very frail patients at 180 days after moderate-stress surgical procedures. Conclusions and Relevance We developed a novel operative stress score to quantify physiologic stress for surgical procedures. Patients who were frail and very frail had high rates of postoperative mortality across all levels of the Operative Stress Score. These findings suggest that frailty screening should be applied universally because low- and moderate-stress procedures may be high risk among patients who are frail.
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Affiliation(s)
- Myrick C Shinall
- Department of Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Shipra Arya
- Division of Vascular Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.,Surgical Service Line, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Healthcare System, Palo Alto, California
| | - Ada Youk
- Center for Health Equity Research and Promotion, Veterans Affairs Pittsburgh Healthcare System, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.,Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Patrick Varley
- Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Rupen Shah
- Department of Surgery, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan
| | - Nader N Massarweh
- Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas.,Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Paula K Shireman
- Department of Surgery, University of Texas Health San Antonio, San Antonio.,South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio
| | - Jason M Johanning
- Department of Surgery, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha.,Nebraska Western Iowa Veterans Affairs Health System, Omaha
| | - Alaina J Brown
- Division of Gynecologic Oncology, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Neil A Christie
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Lawrence Crist
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | | | - Brian C Drolet
- Deparment of Plastic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Rajeev Dhupar
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Jennifer Griffin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha
| | - James W Ibinson
- Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Jonas T Johnson
- Department of Otolaryngology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Sonja Kinney
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha
| | - Chad LaGrange
- Division of Urology, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha
| | - Alexander Langerman
- Department of Otolaryngology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - Gary E Loyd
- Perioperative Surgical Home, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan
| | - Leila J Mady
- Department of Otolaryngology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Michael P Mott
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan
| | - Murali Patri
- Department of Anesthesiology, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan
| | - Justin C Siebler
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Rehabilitation, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha
| | - C J Stimson
- Department of Urology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee
| | - William E Thorell
- Department of Neurosurgery, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha
| | - Scott A Vincent
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Rehabilitation, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha
| | - Daniel E Hall
- Center for Health Equity Research and Promotion, Veterans Affairs Pittsburgh Healthcare System, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.,Department of Surgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.,Wolff Center, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
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10
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Kleive D, Sahakyan MA, Labori KJ, Lassen K. Nasogastric Tube on Demand is Rarely Necessary After Pancreatoduodenectomy Within an Enhanced Recovery Pathway. World J Surg 2019; 43:2616-2622. [PMID: 31161355 DOI: 10.1007/s00268-019-05045-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Evidence-based guidelines for enhanced recovery (ERAS) pathways after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) are available. Routine use of nasogatric tube (NGT) after PD is not recommended. This study aims to evaluate the need for NGT reinsertion after PD performed within an ERAS setting. METHODS It is a prospective observational study of all patients undergoing PD in a tertiary referral hospital within the study period from 2015 throughout 2016. Pre- and postoperative variables were collected. Patients requiring NGT reinsertion were identified. Comparative analysis of patients with and without a NGT reinsertion was performed, as well as multivariate analysis for risk factors for on-demand NGT reinsertion. RESULTS Two-hundred and one patients were included. In total, 45 (22.4%) patients required NGT reinsertion after PD. A total of 32 (15.9%) patients underwent a relaparotomy. Reinsertion of NGT in patients not undergoing a relaparotomy occurred in 26 (15.4%) patients. The presence of a major postoperative complication was a risk factor for reinsertion of NGT, OR 5.27 (2.54-10.94, p = 0.001). Patients with the need for a NGT reinsertion had a higher frequency of major postoperative complications and relaparotomy compared to patients without the need of a NGT reinsertion, 26 (57.8%) versus 32 (20.5%), p < 0.001 and 19 (42.2%) versus 13 (8.3%), p < 0.001, respectively. CONCLUSION Routine use of NGT after PD is not justified within an ERAS setting. Immediate removal of the NGT after the procedure can be performed safely, and reinsertion on demand is rarely necessary in uncomplicated courses.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Kleive
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, Rikshospitalet, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Mushegh A Sahakyan
- Department of Surgery N1, Yerevan State Medical University After M. Heratsi, Yerevan, Armenia
| | - K J Labori
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, Rikshospitalet, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - K Lassen
- Department of Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Surgery, Rikshospitalet, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
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11
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Nymo LS, Norderval S, Eriksen MT, Wasmuth HH, Kørner H, Bjørnbeth BA, Moger T, Viste A, Lassen K. Short-term outcomes after elective colon cancer surgery: an observational study from the Norwegian registry for gastrointestinal and HPB surgery, NoRGast. Surg Endosc 2018; 33:2821-2833. [PMID: 30413929 DOI: 10.1007/s00464-018-6575-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2018] [Accepted: 11/02/2018] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND To describe the real burden of major complications after elective surgery for colon cancer in Norway, and to assess which predictors that are significantly associated with the short-term outcome. METHODS An observational, multi-centre analysis of prospectively registered colon resections registered into the Norwegian Registry for Gastrointestinal Surgery, NoRGast, between January 2014 and December 2016. A propensity score-adjusted subgroup analysis for surgical access groups was attempted, with laparoscopic resections grouped as intention-to-treat. RESULTS Out of 1812 resections, 14.0% of patients experienced a major complication within 30 days following surgery. The over-all reoperation rate was 8.7%, and rate of reoperation for anastomotic leak was 3.8%. Twenty patients (1.1%) died within 30 days after surgery. Higher age was not a significant predictor of major complications, including 30-day mortality. After correction for all co-variables, open access surgery was associated with higher rates of major complications (OR 1.67 (CI 1.22-2.29), p = 0.002), higher 30-day mortality (OR 4.39 (CI 1.19-16.13) p = 0.026) and longer length-of-stay (HR 0.58 (CI 0.52-0.65) p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate a low complication burden and high rate of uneventful patient journeys after elective surgery for colon cancer in Norway. Age was not associated with higher morbidity or mortality rates. Open access surgery was associated with an inferior short-term outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- L S Nymo
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North Norway, 9019, Tromsø, Norway. .,Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Science, UIT, The Arctic University of Norway, 9019, Tromsø, Norway.
| | - S Norderval
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North Norway, 9019, Tromsø, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Science, UIT, The Arctic University of Norway, 9019, Tromsø, Norway
| | - M T Eriksen
- Division of Surgery, Inflammatory Diseases and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, 0424, Oslo, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, 0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - H H Wasmuth
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, St. Olav Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, 7006, Trondheim, Norway
| | - H Kørner
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, 4068, Stavanger, Norway.,Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - B A Bjørnbeth
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, 0316, Oslo, Norway.,Department of HPB Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - T Moger
- Surgical Department, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Lillehammer, Norway
| | - A Viste
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.,Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
| | - K Lassen
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Science, UIT, The Arctic University of Norway, 9019, Tromsø, Norway.,Department of HPB Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
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12
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13
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Lassen K, Nymo LS, Kørner H, Thon K, Grindstein T, Wasmuth HH, Moger T, Bjørnbeth BA, Norderval S, Eriksen MT, Viste A. The New National Registry for Gastrointestinal Surgery in Norway: NoRGast. Scand J Surg 2018; 107:201-207. [DOI: 10.1177/1457496918766697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Background and Aims: There is an increasing demand for high-quality data for the outcome of health care. Diseases of the gastro-intestinal tract involve large patient groups often presenting with serious or life-threatening conditions. Complications may affect treatment outcomes and lead to increased mortality or reduced quality of life. A continuous, risk-adjusted monitoring of major complications is important to improve the quality of health care to patients undergoing gastrointestinal resections. We present the development of the Norwegian Registry for Gastrointestinal Surgery, a national registry for colorectal, upper gastrointestinal, and hepato-pancreato-biliary resections in Norway. Materials and Methods: A narrative and qualitative presentation of the development and current state of the registry. Results: We present the variables and the analysis tools and provide examples for the potential in quality improvement and research. Core characteristics include a strictly limited set of variables to reflect important risk factors, the procedure performed, and the clinical outcomes. Conclusion: A registry with the potential to present complete national cohort data is a powerful tool for quality improvement and research.
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Affiliation(s)
- K. Lassen
- Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Faculty of Health Science, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Department of Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Surgery, Oslo University Hospital Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - L. S. Nymo
- Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - H. Kørner
- Division of Colorectal Surgery, Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway
- Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - K. Thon
- Centre for Clinical Documentation and Evaluation (SKDE), Tromsø, Norway
| | - T. Grindstein
- Northern Norway Regional Health Authority and Information Technology Services (IKT), Tromsø, Norway
| | - H. H. Wasmuth
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
| | - T. Moger
- Department of Gastroenterology, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Lillehammer, Norway
| | - B. A. Bjørnbeth
- Department of Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Surgery, Oslo University Hospital Rikshospitalet, Oslo, Norway
| | - S. Norderval
- Gastrointestinal Surgery, University Hospital of North Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Faculty of Health Science, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - M. T. Eriksen
- Division of Surgery, Inflammatory Diseases and Transplantation, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - A. Viste
- Division of Colorectal Surgery, Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway
- Department of Acute and Digestive Surgery, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, Norway
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14
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Zhang B, Zhang B, Zhang Z, Huang Z, Chen Y, Chen M, Bie P, Peng B, Wu L, Wang Z, Li B, Fan J, Qin L, Chen P, Liu J, Tang Z, Niu J, Yin X, Li D, He S, Jiang B, Mao Y, Zhou W, Chen X. 42,573 cases of hepatectomy in China: a multicenter retrospective investigation. SCIENCE CHINA-LIFE SCIENCES 2018; 61:660-670. [PMID: 29417360 DOI: 10.1007/s11427-017-9259-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2017] [Accepted: 12/06/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Hepatectomy is currently routinely performed in most hospitals in China. China owns the largest population of liver diseases and the biggest number of liver resection cases. A nationwide multicenter retrospective investigation involving 112 hospitals was performed, and focused on liver resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). 42,573 cases of hepatectomy were enrolled, and 18,275 valid cases of liver resection for HCC patients were selected for statistical analysis. The epidemiology of HCC, distribution of hepatectomy, postoperative complications and prognosis were finally analyzed. In the 18,275 HCC patients, 81% had hepatitis B virus infection and 10% had hepatitis C virus infection. 38% of the HCC patients had normal Alphafetoprotein (AFP) level, and other 35% had an AFP level lower than 400 ng mL-1. In the study period, 97% of the hepatectomy for HCC were treated with open surgery, and 23.81% had vascular exclusion techniques. The operation time was (191.7±105.6) min, the blood loss was (546.0±562.8) mL, and blood transfusion was (543.0±1,035.2) mL. The median survival for HCC patients was 631 days, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival of 73.2%, 28.8% and 19.6%, respectively. Liver cirrhosis, multiple nodules, tumor thrombosis and high AFP level were risk factors that affect postoperative survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Binhao Zhang
- Institute of Hepato-pancreato-bililary Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China
| | - Bixiang Zhang
- Institute of Hepato-pancreato-bililary Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China
| | - Zhiwei Zhang
- Institute of Hepato-pancreato-bililary Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China
| | - Zhiyong Huang
- Institute of Hepato-pancreato-bililary Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China
| | - Yifa Chen
- Institute of Hepato-pancreato-bililary Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China
| | - Minshan Chen
- Cancer Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510060, China
| | - Ping Bie
- Southwest Hospital, Chongqing, 400038, China
| | - Baogang Peng
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Liqun Wu
- Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao Medical College, Qingdao, 266071, China
| | | | - Bo Li
- West China Hospital, Chengdu, 610041, China
| | - Jia Fan
- Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Lunxiu Qin
- Huashan Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, 100044, China
| | - Ping Chen
- Daping Hospital, the Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, 400042, China
| | - Jingfeng Liu
- Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital, Fuzhou, 350025, China
| | - Zhe Tang
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450052, China
| | - Jun Niu
- Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, China
| | - Xinmin Yin
- Hunan People's Hospital, Changsha, 410002, China
| | - Deyu Li
- Henan People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, 450003, China
| | - Songqing He
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, 530021, China
| | - Bin Jiang
- Taihe Hospital, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Yilei Mao
- Union Hospital, Beijing, 100032, China.
| | - Weiping Zhou
- Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Shanghai, 201805, China.
| | - Xiaoping Chen
- Institute of Hepato-pancreato-bililary Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430030, China.
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15
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Validation of an assessment tool: Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Gastric Cancer. Eur J Surg Oncol 2018; 44:515-523. [PMID: 29422249 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejso.2018.01.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2017] [Revised: 10/20/2017] [Accepted: 01/02/2018] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Benchmarking of long-term surgical outcomes has rarely been attempted. We previously devised a prediction model for assessing the outcome of late survival after surgery, termed the Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Gastric Cancer (EPOS-GC). This study was undertaken to validate EPOS-GC in an external data set. METHODS A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 11 cancer care hospitals in Japan, analyzing a consecutive series of patients who underwent elective gastric cancer resection between April 2007 and March 2009. EPOS-GC consists of three tumor-related variables and three physiological variables. The primary endpoint was postoperative overall survival. The observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio of 5-year survival rates was defined as a metric of quality of care. The sample size for O/E was determined as 42. RESULTS We included 2045 patients for analysis. The median (95% confidence interval) follow-up time was 5.1 (1.2-6.8) years for censored patients. Although EPOS-GC demonstrated a good discriminative power (Harrell's C-index, 95% confidence interval: 0.80, 0.79-0.83), the calibration plot revealed that EPOS-GC underestimated 5-year survival rates in the high-risk group. Therefore, we recalibrated the model with Cox's regression analysis. The recalibrated EPOS-GC showed a good calibration, preserving the high discriminative power (C-index, 95% confidence interval: 0.80, 0.78-0.82). The O/E among hospitals according to the recalibrated EPOS-GC ranged between 0.87 and 1.27. The O/E correlated with hospital volumes (Spearman's correlation = 0.76, n = 11, p = .006). CONCLUSION EPOS-GC with recalibration can convey risk-adjusted quality assurance regarding late survival following gastric cancer resection.
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16
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Stefani LC, Gutierrez CDS, Castro SMDJ, Zimmer RL, Diehl FP, Meyer LE, Caumo W. Derivation and validation of a preoperative risk model for postoperative mortality (SAMPE model): An approach to care stratification. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0187122. [PMID: 29084236 PMCID: PMC5662221 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2017] [Accepted: 10/13/2017] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Ascertaining which patients are at highest risk of poor postoperative outcomes could improve care and enhance safety. This study aimed to construct and validate a propensity index for 30-day postoperative mortality. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Brazil, over a period of 3 years. A dataset of 13524 patients was used to develop the model and another dataset of 7254 was used to validate it. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality. Overall mortality in the development dataset was 2.31% [n = 311; 95% confidence interval: 2.06–2.56%]. Four variables were significantly associated with outcome: age, ASA class, nature of surgery (urgent/emergency vs elective), and surgical severity (major/intermediate/minor). The index with this set of variables to predict mortality in the validation sample (n = 7253) gave an AUROC = 0.9137, 85.2% sensitivity, and 81.7% specificity. This sensitivity cut-off yielded four classes of death probability: class I, <2%; class II, 2–5%; class III, 5–10%; class IV, >10%. Model application showed that, amongst patients in risk class IV, the odds of death were approximately fivefold higher (odds ratio 5.43, 95% confidence interval: 2.82–10.46) in those admitted to intensive care after a period on the regular ward than in those sent to the intensive care unit directly after surgery. The SAMPE (Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Service) model accurately predicted 30-day postoperative mortality. This model allows identification of high-risk patients and could be used as a practical tool for care stratification and rational postoperative allocation of critical care resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luciana Cadore Stefani
- Department of Surgery, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Service, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Medical Science Postgraduation Program,- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Laboratory of Pain and Neuromodulation, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- * E-mail:
| | - Claudia De Souza Gutierrez
- Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Service, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Medical Science Postgraduation Program,- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | | | - Rafael Leal Zimmer
- Medical Science Postgraduation Program,- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | - Felipe Polgati Diehl
- Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Service, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | - Leonardo Elman Meyer
- Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Service, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | - Wolnei Caumo
- Department of Surgery, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine Service, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Medical Science Postgraduation Program,- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
- Laboratory of Pain and Neuromodulation, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
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n-3 fatty acid-based parenteral nutrition improves postoperative recovery for cirrhotic patients with liver cancer: A randomized controlled clinical trial. Clin Nutr 2017; 36:1239-1244. [DOI: 10.1016/j.clnu.2016.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2014] [Revised: 07/14/2016] [Accepted: 08/04/2016] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
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Zhang A, Liu T, Zheng K, Liu N, Huang F, Li W, Liu T, Fu W. Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) scoring system could provide preoperative advice on whether to undergo laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer patients with a high physiological risk. Medicine (Baltimore) 2017; 96:e7772. [PMID: 28816959 PMCID: PMC5571696 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000007772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Laparoscopic colorectal surgery had been widely used for colorectal cancer patient and showed a favorable outcome on the postoperative morbidity rate. We attempted to evaluate physiological status of patients by mean of Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) system and to analyze the difference variation of postoperative morbidity rate of open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery in patients with different physiological status.In total 550 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery treatment were included. E-PASS and some conventional scoring systems were reviewed to examine their mortality prediction ability. The preoperative risk score (PRS) in the E-PASS system was used to evaluate the physiological status of patients. The difference of postoperative morbidity rate between open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgeries was analyzed respectively in patients with different physiological status.E-PASS had better prediction ability than other conventional scoring systems in colorectal cancer surgeries. Postoperative morbidities were developed in 143 patients. The parameters in the E-PASS system had positive correlations with postoperative morbidity. The overall postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries was lower than open surgeries (19.61% and 28.46%), but the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries increased more significantly than in open surgery as PRS increased. When PRS was more than 0.7, the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries would exceed the postoperative morbidity rate of open surgeries.The E-PASS system was capable to evaluate the physiological and surgical risk of colorectal cancer surgery. PRS could assist preoperative decision-making on the surgical method. Colorectal cancer patients who were assessed with a low physiological risk by PRS would be safe to undergo laparoscopic surgery. On the contrary, surgeons should make decisions prudently on the operation method for patient with a high physiological risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ao Zhang
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
| | - Tingting Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
| | - Kaiyuan Zheng
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
| | - Ningbo Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Handan First Hospital, Handan, China
| | - Fei Huang
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
| | - Weidong Li
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
| | - Tong Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
| | - Weihua Fu
- Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin
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19
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Labgaa I, Joliat GR, Kefleyesus A, Mantziari S, Schäfer M, Demartines N, Hübner M. Is postoperative decrease of serum albumin an early predictor of complications after major abdominal surgery? A prospective cohort study in a European centre. BMJ Open 2017; 7:e013966. [PMID: 28391235 PMCID: PMC5775466 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-013966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To test postoperative serum albumin drop (ΔAlb) as a marker of surgical stress response and early predictor of clinical outcomes. DESIGN Prospective cohort study (NCT02356484). Albumin was prospectively measured in 138 patients undergoing major abdominal surgery. Blood samples were collected before surgery and on postoperative days 0, 1 2 and 3. ΔAlb was compared to the modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (mE-PASS) score and correlated to the performances of C reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and lactate (LCT). Postoperative outcomes were postoperative complications according to Clavien classification and Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI), and length of hospital stay (LoS). SETTING Department of abdominal surgery in a European tertiary centre. PARTICIPANTS Adult patients undergoing elective major abdominal surgery, with anticipated duration ≥2 hours. Patients on immunosuppressive or antibiotic treatments before surgery were excluded. RESULTS The level of serum albumin rapidly dropped after surgery. ΔAlb correlated to the mE-PASS score (r=0.275, p=0.01) and to CRP increase (r=0.536, p<0.001). ΔAlb also correlated to overall complications (r=0.485, p<0.001), CCI (r=0.383, p<0.001) and LoS (r=0.468, p<0.001). A ΔAlb ≥10 g/L yielded a sensitivity of 77.1% and a specificity of 67.2% (AUC: 78.3%) to predict complications. Patients with ΔAlb ≥10 g/L on POD 1 showed a threefold increased risk of overall postoperative complications. CONCLUSIONS Early postoperative decrease of serum albumin correlated with the extent of surgery, its metabolic response and with adverse outcomes such as complications and length of stay. A decreased concentration of serum albumin ≥10 g/L on POD 1 was associated with a threefold increased risk of overall postoperative complications and may thus be used to identify patients at risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ismail Labgaa
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Gaëtan-Romain Joliat
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Amaniel Kefleyesus
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Styliani Mantziari
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Markus Schäfer
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Nicolas Demartines
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Martin Hübner
- Department of Visceral Surgery, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Lausanne, Switzerland
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Feasibility and Safety of Pressurized Intraperitoneal Aerosol Chemotherapy for Peritoneal Carcinomatosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Gastroenterol Res Pract 2017; 2017:6852749. [PMID: 28331493 PMCID: PMC5346367 DOI: 10.1155/2017/6852749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2016] [Accepted: 01/24/2017] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background. Pressurized intraperitoneal aerosol chemotherapy (PIPAC) has been introduced as a novel repeatable treatment for peritoneal carcinomatosis. The available evidence from the pioneer center suggests good tolerance and high response rates, but independent confirmation is needed. A single-center cohort was analyzed one year after implementation for feasibility and safety. Methods. PIPAC was started in January 2015, and every patient was entered into a prospective database. This retrospective analysis included all consecutive patients operated until April 2016 with emphasis on surgical feasibility and early postoperative outcomes. Results. Forty-two patients (M : F = 8 : 34, median age 66 (59–73) years) with 91 PIPAC procedures in total (4×: 1, 3×: 17, 2×: 12, and 1×: 12) were analyzed. Abdominal accessibility rate was 95% (42/44); laparoscopic access was not feasible in 2 patients with previous HIPEC. Median initial peritoneal carcinomatosis index (PCI) was 10 (IQR 5–17). Median operation time was 94 min (89–108) with no learning curve observed. One PIPAC application was postponed due to intraoperative intestinal lesion. Overall morbidity was 9% with 7 minor complications (Clavien I-II) and one PIPAC-unrelated postoperative mortality. Median postoperative hospital stay was 3 days (2-3). Conclusion. Repetitive PIPAC is feasible in most patients with refractory carcinomatosis of various origins. Intraoperative complications and postoperative morbidity rates were low. This encourages prospective studies assessing oncological efficacy.
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Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) versus modified E-PASS for prediction of postoperative complications in elderly patients who undergo gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Int J Clin Oncol 2016; 22:80-87. [DOI: 10.1007/s10147-016-1028-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2016] [Accepted: 07/28/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Inokuchi M, Otsuki S, Murase H, Kawano T, Kojima K. Feasibility of laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy for patients with poor physical status: A propensity-score matching study. Int J Surg 2016; 31:47-51. [PMID: 27260314 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2016.05.066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2016] [Revised: 05/11/2016] [Accepted: 05/29/2016] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Laparoscopically-assisted gastrectomy (LAG) has been established to be a minimally invasive treatment for early gastric cancer. However, few studies have shown the feasibility of LAG in patients with risky comorbidities according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA-PS) classification. We performed this retrospective cohort study to assess the feasibility of LG in patients with an ASA-PS class of 3 or higher. METHODS We retrospectively identified 214 patients with an ASA-PS class of 3 or 4 among 1192 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy with lymph-node dissection between 1999 and 2014 in our hospital. Finally, 106 patients were generated by propensity-score matching between LAG and open gastrectomy (OG). Postoperative complications were compared between LAG and OG. RESULT The overall incidence of complications was the same in LAG (30%) and OG (30%). Surgical complications were similar in LAG and OG (19% and 17%, p = 0.80). Medical complications also did not differ significantly between LAG and OG (21% and 15%, p = 0.45). CONCLUSION LAG was a feasible procedure for patients with gastric cancer who had an ASA-PS class of 3 or 4 and could undergo general anesthesia. LAG can become an optional treatment for such risky patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikito Inokuchi
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45, Yushima, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8519, Japan.
| | - Sho Otsuki
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45, Yushima, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8519, Japan
| | - Hideaki Murase
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45, Yushima, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8519, Japan
| | - Tatsuyuki Kawano
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45, Yushima, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8519, Japan
| | - Kazuyuki Kojima
- Department of Minimally Invasive Surgery, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45, Yushima, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8519, Japan
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Value of E-PASS models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma. HPB (Oxford) 2016; 18:271-8. [PMID: 27017167 PMCID: PMC4814599 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2015.09.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2015] [Accepted: 09/22/2015] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND It has previously been reported that a general risk model, Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), and its modified version, mE-PASS, had a high predictive power for postoperative mortality and morbidity in a variety of gastrointestinal surgeries. This study evaluated their utilities in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. METHODS E-PASS variables were collected in patients undergoing resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma in Japanese referral hospitals. RESULTS Analysis of 125 patients with gallbladder cancer and 97 patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (n = 222). Fifty-six patients (25%) underwent liver resection with either hemihepatectomy or extended hemihepatectomy. The E-PASS models showed a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) were 0.85 (0.76-0.94) for E-PASS and 0.82 (0.73-0.91) for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient: ρ = 0.51, P < 0.001 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.47, P < 0.001 for mE-PASS). CONCLUSIONS The E-PASS models examined herein may accurately predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in proximal biliary carcinoma resection. These models will be useful for surgical decision-making, informed consent, and risk adjustments in surgical audits.
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Haga Y, Ikejiri K, Wada Y, Ikenaga M, Koike S, Nakamura S, Koseki M. The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery. World J Surg 2015; 39:1567-77. [DOI: 10.1007/s00268-015-2962-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
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Haga Y, Ikejiri K, Wada Y, Ikenaga M, Takeuchi H. Preliminary study of surgical audit for overall survival following gastric cancer resection. Gastric Cancer 2015; 18:138-46. [PMID: 24500678 DOI: 10.1007/s10120-014-0343-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2013] [Accepted: 01/13/2014] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies for surgical audit have focused on short-term outcomes, such as perioperative mortality. There has been no gold standard how to evaluate quality of care for long-term outcomes in surgical oncology. This preliminary study aims to propose a method for surgical audit targeting long-term outcome following gastrectomy for gastric cancer. METHODS We prospectively investigated a set of variables relating to physiologic conditions, tumor characteristics and operations in patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between June 2005 and July 2008 in 18 referral hospitals in Japan. Overall survival (OS) is the endpoint. Cox hazard regression analysis was used to generate a model to predict OS. The calibration and discrimination power of the model were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratio of observed-to-estimated 5-year OS rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality. RESULTS Among 762 patients analyzed, 697 (91%) completed the 5-year follow-up. The constructed model for OS exhibited a good discrimination power (AUC, 95% confidence interval 0.89, 0.86-0.91), which was significantly better than that for the UICC stage (0.81, 0.77-0.84). This model also demonstrated a good calibration power (H-L: χ(2) = 27.2, df = 8, P = 0.77). The OE ratios among the participating hospitals revealed no significant variation between 0.74 and 1.1. CONCLUSIONS The current study suggests the possibility of surgical audit for postoperative OS in gastric cancer. Further studies including high-volume centers will be necessary to validate this idea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshio Haga
- Institute for Clinical Research, National Hospital Organization Kumamoto Medical Center, 1-5 Ninomaru, Kumamoto, 8600008, Japan,
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Evaluation of modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress in patients undergoing surgery for choledochocystolithiasis. World J Surg 2014; 38:1177-83. [PMID: 24322176 DOI: 10.1007/s00268-013-2383-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of complicated choledochocystolithiasis is increasing with the aging of society in Japan. We evaluated the utility of our prediction rule modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (mE-PASS) in predicting postoperative adverse events in patients with choledochocystolithiasis. METHODS A total of 4,329 patients who underwent elective surgery for choledochocystolithiasis in 44 referral hospitals between April 1987 and April 2007 were analyzed for mE-PASS along with postoperative events. The discrimination power of mE-PASS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The correlation between ordinal and interval variables was quantified by the Spearman rank correlation (ρ). The ratio of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratio) was used as a metric of surgical quality. RESULTS Postoperative in-hospital mortality rates were 0 % (0/3,442) for laparoscopic cholecystectomy, 0.19 % (1/521) for open cholecystectomy, 1.6 % (1/63) for laparoscopic choledochotomy, 1.1 % (3/264) for open choledochotomy, and 5.1 % (2/39) for plasty or resection of the common bile duct. mE-PASS demonstrated a high discrimination power to predict in-hospital mortality; AUC, 95 % confidence interval (CI) of 0.96, 0.94-0.99. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with the severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.278, p < 0.0001) and length of hospital stay (ρ = 0.479, p < 0.0001). The OE ratios (95 % CI) improved slightly over time; 1.5 (0.25-9.0) between 1987 and 2000, and 0.40 (0.078-2.1) between 2001 and 2007. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that mE-PASS can predict postoperative risks in patients who have undergone choledochocystolithiasis. mE-PASS may be useful in surgical decision making and evaluating the quality of care.
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Inokuchi M, Kato K, Sugita H, Otsuki S, Kojima K. Impact of comorbidities on postoperative complications in patients undergoing laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy for gastric cancer. BMC Surg 2014; 14:97. [PMID: 25416543 PMCID: PMC4251931 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2482-14-97] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2014] [Accepted: 11/11/2014] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Comorbidity is a predictor of postoperative complications (PCs) in gastrectomy. However, it remains unclear which comorbidities are predictors of PCs in patients who undergo laparoscopy-assisted gastrectomy (LAG). Clinically, insufficient lymphadenectomy (LND) is sometimes performed in high-risk patients, although the impact on PCs and outcomes remains unclear. Methods We retrospectively studied 529 patients with gastric cancer (GC) who underwent LAG. PCs were defined as grade 2 or higher events according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. We evaluated various comorbidities as risk factors for PCs and examined the impact of insufficient LND on PCs in patients with risky comorbidities. Result A total of 87 (16.4%) patients had PCs. There was no PC-related death. On univariate analysis, heart disease, central nervous system (CNS) disease, liver disease, renal dysfunction, and restrictive pulmonary dysfunction were significantly associated with PCs. Both liver disease and heart disease were significant independent risk factors for PCs on multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR] = 3.25, p = 0.022; OR = 2.36, p = 0.017, respectively). In patients with one or more risky comorbidity, insufficient LND did not significantly decrease PCs (p = 0.42) or shorten GC-specific survival (p = 0.25). Conclusion In patients who undergo LAG for GC, the presence of heart disease or liver disease is an independent risk factor for PC. Insufficient LND (for example, D1+ for advanced GC) might be permissible in high-risk patients, because although it did not reduce PCs, it had no negative impact on GC-specific survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mikito Inokuchi
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.
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Siontis GCM, Tzoulaki I, Castaldi PJ, Ioannidis JPA. External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination. J Clin Epidemiol 2014; 68:25-34. [PMID: 25441703 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2014.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 268] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2014] [Revised: 08/31/2014] [Accepted: 09/04/2014] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate how often newly developed risk prediction models undergo external validation and how well they perform in such validations. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We reviewed derivation studies of newly proposed risk models and their subsequent external validations. Study characteristics, outcome(s), and models' discriminatory performance [area under the curve, (AUC)] in derivation and validation studies were extracted. We estimated the probability of having a validation, change in discriminatory performance with more stringent external validation by overlapping or different authors compared to the derivation estimates. RESULTS We evaluated 127 new prediction models. Of those, for 32 models (25%), at least an external validation study was identified; in 22 models (17%), the validation had been done by entirely different authors. The probability of having an external validation by different authors within 5 years was 16%. AUC estimates significantly decreased during external validation vs. the derivation study [median AUC change: -0.05 (P < 0.001) overall; -0.04 (P = 0.009) for validation by overlapping authors; -0.05 (P < 0.001) for validation by different authors]. On external validation, AUC decreased by at least 0.03 in 19 models and never increased by at least 0.03 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION External independent validation of predictive models in different studies is uncommon. Predictive performance may worsen substantially on external validation.
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Affiliation(s)
- George C M Siontis
- Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, University Campus, P.O. Box 1186, 45110 Ioannina, Greece
| | - Ioanna Tzoulaki
- Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, University Campus, P.O. Box 1186, 45110 Ioannina, Greece; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place W2 1PG, London, United Kingdom
| | - Peter J Castaldi
- Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 181 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - John P A Ioannidis
- Department of Medicine, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, 1265 Welch Rd, MSOB X306, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Statistics, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
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Haga Y, Wada Y, Saitoh T, Takeuchi H, Ikejiri K, Ikenaga M. Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas. JOURNAL OF HEPATO-BILIARY-PANCREATIC SCIENCES 2014; 21:599-606. [PMID: 24648305 DOI: 10.1002/jhbp.105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The present study evaluated the utility of general surgical risk models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in the specialty field of pancreatic resections for pancreatobiliary carcinomas. METHODS We investigated Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), its modified version (mE-PASS), and Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) in 231 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy (Group A). We also analyzed E-PASS and mE-PASS in another cohort of the same procedures (Group B, n = 313). RESULTS Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for detecting in-hospital mortality in Group A were moderate at 0.75 for E-PASS, 0.69 for mE-PASS, and 0.69 for P-POSSUM. The predicted mortality rates of the models significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.17, P = 0.011 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.15, and P = 0.027 for P-POSSUM). The AUCs were also moderate in Group B at 0.68 for E-PASS and 0.69 for mE-PASS. The predicted mortality rates significantly correlated with severity of postoperative complications (ρ = 0.18, P = 0.0018 for E-PASS; ρ = 0.17, and P = 0.0022 for mE-PASS). CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the predictive powers of general risk models may be moderate in pancreatic resections. A novel model would be desirable for these procedures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshio Haga
- Institute for Clinical Research, National Hospital Organization Kumamoto Medical Center, 1-5 Ninomaru, Chuo-ku, Kumamoto, 860-0008, Japan; Department of International Medical Cooperation, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan.
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Moonesinghe SR, Mythen MG, Das P, Rowan KM, Grocott MPW. Risk stratification tools for predicting morbidity and mortality in adult patients undergoing major surgery: qualitative systematic review. Anesthesiology 2014; 119:959-81. [PMID: 24195875 DOI: 10.1097/aln.0b013e3182a4e94d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 228] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Risk stratification is essential for both clinical risk prediction and comparative audit. There are a variety of risk stratification tools available for use in major noncardiac surgery, but their discrimination and calibration have not previously been systematically reviewed in heterogeneous patient cohorts.Embase, MEDLINE, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between January 1, 1980 and August 6, 2011 in adult patients undergoing major noncardiac, nonneurological surgery. Twenty-seven studies evaluating 34 risk stratification tools were identified which met inclusion criteria. The Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and the Surgical Risk Scale were demonstrated to be the most consistently accurate tools that have been validated in multiple studies; however, both have limitations. Future work should focus on further evaluation of these and other parsimonious risk predictors, including validation in international cohorts. There is also a need for studies examining the impact that the use of these tools has on clinical decision making and patient outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suneetha Ramani Moonesinghe
- * Director, University College London, University College London Hospitals' Surgical Outcomes Research Center, London, United Kingdom; Honorary Senior Lecturer, University College London; and Consultant, Anaesthesia and Critical Care, University College Hospital. † Professor, Smiths Medical Professor of Anaesthesia and Critical Care, University College London; and Honorary Consultant, Anaesthesia, University College Hospital. ‡ Research Fellow, University College London, University College London Hospitals' Surgical Outcomes Research Center, University College Hospital. § Professor and Director, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center, London, United Kingdom. ‖ Professor of Critical Care Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Honorary Consultant, Critical Care, Southampton University Hospital; and Director, National Institute for Academic Anaesthesia's Health Services Research Center, London, United Kingdom
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Hirose J, Taniwaki T, Fujimoto T, Okada T, Nakamura T, Okamoto N, Usuku K, Mizuta H. Predictive value of E-PASS and POSSUM systems for postoperative risk assessment of spinal surgery. J Neurosurg Spine 2014; 20:75-82. [DOI: 10.3171/2013.9.spine12671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Object
The Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems are surgical risk scoring systems that take into account both the patient's preoperative condition and intraoperative variables. While they predict postoperative morbidity and mortality rates for several types of surgery, spinal surgeries are currently not included. The authors assessed the usefulness of E-PASS and POSSUM algorithms and compared the predictive ability of both systems in patients with spinal disorders considered for surgery.
Methods
The E-PASS system includes a preoperative risk score, a surgical stress score, and a comprehensive risk score that is determined by both the preoperative risk score and surgical stress score. The POSSUM system is composed of a physiological score and an operative severity score; its total score is based on both the physiological score and operative severity score. The authors calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for 601 consecutive patients who had undergone spinal surgery and investigated the relationship between the individual scores of both systems and the incidence of postoperative complications. They also assessed the correctness of the predicted morbidity rate of both systems.
Results
Postoperative complications developed in 64 patients (10.6%); there were no in-hospital deaths. All EPASS scores (p ≤ 0.001) and the operative severity score and total score of the POSSUM (p < 0.03) were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without postoperative complications. The morbidity rates correlated linearly and significantly with all E-PASS scores (p ≤ 0.001); their coefficients (preoperative risk score, ρ = 0.179; surgical stress score, ρ = 0.131; and comprehensive risk score, ρ = 0.198) were higher than those for the POSSUM scores (physiological score, ρ = 0.059; operative severity score, ρ = 0.111; and total score, ρ = 0.091). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predicted morbidity rate was 0.668 for the E-PASS and 0.588 for the POSSUM system.
Conclusions
As E-PASS predicted morbidity more correctly than POSSUM, it is useful for estimating the postoperative risk of patients considered for spinal surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Hirose
- 1Departments of Orthopaedic Surgery and
- 2Medical Information Science and Administration Planning, Kumamoto University Hospital, Kumamoto, Japan
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Koichiro Usuku
- 2Medical Information Science and Administration Planning, Kumamoto University Hospital, Kumamoto, Japan
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Abstract
STUDY DESIGN A single-center retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the ability of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) system to predict postoperative risk in patients scheduled for spinal surgery. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA The E-PASS system is a surgical audit to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in general surgery. It is currently not applied in patients with spinal disorders. METHODS The E-PASS system is comprised of a preoperative risk score (PRS), a surgical stress score (SSS), and a comprehensive risk score (CRS). The latter reflects both the PRS and SSS. We calculated the E-PASS scores for 275 consecutive patients who underwent spinal surgery and evaluated the relationship between the incidence of postoperative complications and each score of the E-PASS system and their ability to predict postoperative morbidity. RESULTS Postoperative complications developed in 31 patients (11.3%). All E-PASS scores were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications and they were linearly correlated with the overall incidence of postoperative complications. In particular, PRS was correlated with complications at nonsurgical sites and SSS with surgical site complications. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for PRS and SSS was higher in patients with complications at nonsurgical and surgical sites, respectively. The AUC for CRS exhibited good predictive power for both types of complication. CONCLUSIONS The E-PASS system correctly predicted morbidity. The predictive ability of CRS was good for overall morbidity. The E-PASS system is useful for the accurate prediction of the risk for in-hospital morbidity in individual patients scheduled for spinal surgery.
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Development and validation of the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES) model. Surg Today 2013; 44:1443-56. [PMID: 23996132 DOI: 10.1007/s00595-013-0707-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2012] [Accepted: 07/19/2013] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE This study was undertaken to establish a model to predict the post-operative mortality for emergency surgeries. METHODS A regression model was constructed to predict in-hospital mortality using data from a cohort of 479 cases of emergency surgery performed in a Japanese referral hospital. The discrimination power of the current model termed the Calculation of post-Operative Risk in Emergency Surgery (CORES), and Portsmouth modification of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in another cohort of 494 cases in the same hospital (validation subset). We further evaluated the accuracy of the CORES in a cohort of 1,471 cases in six hospitals (multicenter subset). RESULTS CORES requires only five preoperative variables, while the P-POSSUM requires 20 variables. In the validation subset, the CORES model had a similar discrimination power as the P-POSSUM for detecting in-hospital mortality (AUC, 95 % CI for CORES: 0.86, 0.80-0.93; for P-POSSUM: 0.88, 0.82-0.93). The predicted mortality rates of the CORES model significantly correlated with the severity of the post-operative complications. The subsequent multicenter study also demonstrated that the CORES model exhibited a high AUC value (0.85: 0.81-0.89) and a significant correlation with the post-operative morbidity. CONCLUSIONS This model for emergency surgery, the CORES, demonstrated a similar discriminatory power to the P-POSSUM in predicting post-operative mortality. However, the CORES model has a substantial advantage over the P-POSSUM in that it utilizes far fewer variables.
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Fearon KC, Jenkins JT, Carli F, Lassen K. Patient optimization for gastrointestinal cancer surgery. Br J Surg 2012; 100:15-27. [PMID: 23165327 DOI: 10.1002/bjs.8988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/25/2012] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although surgical resection remains the central element in curative treatment of gastrointestinal cancer, increasing emphasis and resource has been focused on neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy. Developments in these modalities have improved outcomes, but far less attention has been paid to improving oncological outcomes through optimization of perioperative care. METHODS A narrative review is presented based on available and updated literature in English and the authors' experience with enhanced recovery research. RESULTS A range of perioperative factors (such as lifestyle, co-morbidity, anaemia, sarcopenia, medications, regional analgesia and minimal access surgery) are modifiable, and can be optimized to reduce short- and long-term morbidity and mortality, improve functional capacity and quality of life, and possibly improve oncological outcome. The effect on cancer-free and overall survival may be of equal magnitude to that achieved by many adjuvant oncological regimens. Modulation of core factors, such as nutritional status, systemic inflammation, and surgical and disease-mediated stress, probably influences the host's immune surveillance and defence status both directly and through reduced postoperative morbidity. CONCLUSION A wider view on long-term effects of expanded or targeted enhanced recovery protocols is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- K C Fearon
- Clinical Surgery, University of Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Haga Y, Ikejiri K, Takeuchi H, Ikenaga M, Wada Y. Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative liver failure and mortality following liver surgery. J Surg Oncol 2012; 106:898-904. [PMID: 22605669 DOI: 10.1002/jso.23160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2012] [Accepted: 04/25/2012] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES This study evaluated the ability of general surgical models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in liver surgery. METHODS The postoperative course and mortality rates predicted by general surgical models were investigated in 960 patients who underwent hepatectomy or ablation therapy for primary or metastatic liver carcinoma. RESULTS The area under the receiver operative characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) for detecting postoperative liver failure was 0.89 (0.84-0.94), 0.85 (0.78-0.92), and 0.78 (0.72-0.85) for the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) model, the modified E-PASS (mE-PASS) model, and the Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) model, respectively, and those for detecting in-hospital mortality were 0.85 (0.76-0.93), 0.85 (0.78-0.92), and 0.79 (0.71-0.87), respectively. Nevertheless, all of the models overpredicted the overall mortality rate (by 2.3-fold for E-PASS, 2.3-fold for mE-PASS, and 2.9-fold for P-POSSUM). CONCLUSIONS The general surgical risk models demonstrated high discriminatory power for predicting postoperative outcomes in liver surgery, but overpredicted the overall mortality rate by more than twofold. Therefore, these models should be refined to make them more suitable for predicting liver surgery outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshio Haga
- Institute for Clinical Research, National Hospital Organization Kumamoto Medical Center, Kumamoto, Japan.
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Thompson EGE, Gower ST, Beilby DS, Wallace S, Tomlinson S, Guest GD, Cade R, Serpell JS, Myles PS. Enhanced Recovery after Surgery Program for Elective Abdominal Surgery at Three Victorian Hospitals. Anaesth Intensive Care 2012; 40:450-9. [DOI: 10.1177/0310057x1204000310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to evaluate the anaesthesia care of an enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program for patients having abdominal surgery in Victorian hospitals. The main outcome measure was the number of ERAS items implemented following introduction of the ERAS program. Secondary endpoints included process of care measures, outcomes and hospital stay. We used a before-and-after design; the control group was a prospective cohort (n=154) representing pre-existing practice for elective abdominal surgical patients from July 2009. The introduction of a comprehensive ERAS program took place over two months and included the education of surgeons, anaesthetists, nurses and allied health professionals. A postimplementation cohort (n=169) was enrolled in early 2010. From a total of 14 ERAS-recommended items, there were significantly more implemented in the post-ERAS period, median 8 (interquartile range 7 to 9) vs 9 (8 to 10), P <0.0001. There were, however, persistent low rates of intravenous fluid restriction (25%) and early removal of urinary catheter (31%) in the post-ERAS period. ERAS patients had less pain and faster recovery parameters, and this was associated with a reduced hospital stay, geometric mean (SD) 5.7 (2.5) vs 7.4 (2.1) days, P=0.006. We found that perioperative anaesthesia practices can be readily modified to incorporate an enhanced recovery program in Victorian hospitals.
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Affiliation(s)
- E. G. E. Thompson
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - S. T. Gower
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - D. S. Beilby
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - S. Wallace
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - S. Tomlinson
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - G. D. Guest
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - R. Cade
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - J. S. Serpell
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - P. S. Myles
- Department of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne; Department of Anaesthesia, Geelong Hospital, Geelong and Department of Anaesthesia, Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Evaluation of modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress in gastric carcinoma surgery. Gastric Cancer 2012; 15:7-14. [PMID: 21538017 DOI: 10.1007/s10120-011-0052-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2011] [Accepted: 03/17/2011] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We recently modified our prediction scoring system "Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress" and have designated the current version mE-PASS. This scoring system has been designed to obtain predicted postoperative mortality rates before surgery and this study was performed to assess its usefulness in elective surgery for gastric carcinoma. METHODS We investigated seven variables for mE-PASS and evaluated the postoperative course in 3,449 patients who underwent elective surgery for gastric carcinoma in Japan between August 20, 1987 and April 9, 2007, in order to quantify the predicted in-hospital mortality rates (R). The calibration and discrimination power of R were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratios of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratios) were quantified as a measure of quality. RESULTS The overall postoperative morbidity and mortality rates were 19.0 and 2.0%, respectively. R demonstrated good power in calibration (χ(2) value, 12.5; df 8; P = 0.89) as well as discrimination (AUC, 95% confidence intervals: 0.80, 0.75-0.85). The OE ratios between hospitals ranged from 0.44 to 1.8. Overall, the OE ratios seemed to improve with time (OE ratio, 95% confidence intervals: 1.3, 0.73-2.4 for the early period between 1987 and 2000; 1.0, 0.59-1.7 for the middle period between 2001 and 2004; and 0.65, 0.36-1.2 for the late period between 2005 and 2007). CONCLUSION Based on these findings, mE-PASS might be useful for medical decision-making and for assessing the quality of care in elective surgery for gastric carcinoma.
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Evaluation of modified estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress in colorectal carcinoma surgery. Dis Colon Rectum 2011; 54:1293-300. [PMID: 21904145 DOI: 10.1097/dcr.0b013e3182271a54] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We recently modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, our prediction scoring system. OBJECTIVE This study evaluated the usefulness of our modified version for colorectal carcinoma in comparison with existing models. DESIGN This investigation studied a multicenter cohort. SETTINGS The study was conducted in regional referral hospitals in Japan. PATIENTS Patients were included who underwent elective surgery for colorectal carcinoma. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Postoperative morbidity, mortality, and predicted mortality rates for original and modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress were investigated in 2388 patients in comparison with existing European models. RESULTS Among the models, the modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress demonstrated the highest discriminatory power in terms of in-hospital mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84 for Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.87 for modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.84 for Portsmouth modification of POSSUM, 0.74 for ASA status-based model), as well as 30-day mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.84 for modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress, 0.81 for POSSUM, 0.78 for colorectal POSSUM, 0.76 for Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland score). British models, in general, overpredicted postoperative mortality rates by more than 10 times. LIMITATIONS The current study analyzed only the Japanese population treated in medium-volume centers. CONCLUSIONS Among the models, modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress was the most accurate in predicting postoperative mortality in colorectal carcinoma surgery. These findings should be validated in Western populations, because the Japanese population may differ from Western populations in terms of body shape or reserve capacity.
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Evaluation of estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress to predict in-hospital mortality in cardiac surgery. J Anesth 2011; 25:481-91. [PMID: 21560027 DOI: 10.1007/s00540-011-1162-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2011] [Accepted: 04/22/2011] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Prediction of postoperative risk in cardiac surgery is important for cardiac surgeons and anesthesiologists. We generated a prediction rule for elective digestive surgery, designated as Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS). This study was undertaken to evaluate the accuracy of E-PASS in predicting postoperative risk in cardiac surgery. METHODS We retrospectively collected data from patients who underwent elective cardiac surgery at a low-volume center (N = 291) and at a high-volume center (N = 784). Data were collected based on the variables required by E-PASS, the European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE), and the Ontario Province Risk Score (OPRS). Calibration and discrimination were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratio of observed-to-estimated in-hospital mortality rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality. RESULTS In-hospital mortality rates were 7.6% at the low-volume center and 1.3% at the high-volume center, accounting for an overall mortality rate of 3.0%. AUC values to detect in-hospital mortality were 0.88 for E-PASS, 0.77 for EuroSCORE, and 0.71 for OPRS. Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis showed a good calibration in all models (P = 0.81 for E-PASS, P = 0.49 for EuroSCORE, and P = 0.94 for OPRS). OE ratios for the low-volume center were 0.83 for E-PASS, 0.70 for EuroSCORE, and 0.83 for OPRS, whereas those for the high-volume center were 0.26 for E-PASS, 0.14 for EuroSCORE, and 0.27 for OPRS. CONCLUSIONS E-PASS may accurately predict postoperative risk in cardiac surgery. Because the variables are different between cardiac-specific models and E-PASS, patients' risks can be double-checked by cardiac surgeons using cardiac-specific models and by anesthesiologists using E-PASS.
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