Clinical significance of melatonin concentrations in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

Table 1 Characteristics of 55 patients with acute pancreatitis n (%)

Variables	Total(n = 55)	Mild(n = 42)	Severe(n = 13)
Age, yr (range)	51 (17-82)	51 (17-77)	50 (30-82)
Male	35 (63.6)	27 (64.3)	8 (61.5)
Female	20 (36.4)	15 (35.7)	5 (38.5)
Etiology
Biliary	19 (34.5)	17 (40.5)	2 (15.4)
Hyperlipidemia	14 (25.5)	8 (19)	6 (46.2)
Idiopathic	14 (25.5)	11 (26.2)	3 (23.1)
Other	8 (14.5)	6 (14.3)	2 (15.4)
APACHEII (range)	7 (2-22)	6 (2-12)	12 (6-22)
BISAP (range)	2 (0-5)	1 (0-4)	3 (2-5)
Operations	10 (18.2)	9 (21.4)	1 (7.7)
Organ failure	2 (3.6)	0 (0.0)	2 (15.4)
Pancreatic necrosis	2 (3.6)	0 (0.0)	2 (15.4)
Pseudocyst	11 (20.0)	0 (0.0)	11 (84.6)
Mortality	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)	0 (0.0)

APACHEII: Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II; BISAP:Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis.

Table 2 Comparison of the capability to predict severe acute pancreatitis

Variables	Sensitivity	Specificity	Youden index	Accuracy
MT ≤ 28.74 ng/L	73.80%	76.90%	0.507	0.758
APACHEII score ≥ 9.5	76.90%	83.30%	0.602	0.872
BISAP score ≥ 2.5	76.90%	90.50%	0.674	0.906

MT: Melatonin; APACHEII: Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II; BISAP: Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis.

Table 3 Relationship between melatonin concentration and patient scores

Group1		APACHEII score2				BISAP score3
	Total cases	High score cases	Incidence	χ2value	P value	High score cases	Incidence	χ2value	P value
Low concentrations	21	8	8/21	0.821	> 0.05	9	9/21	5.422	0.02
High concentrations	34	9	9/34			5	5/34

¹≤ 28.74 ng/L is defined as a low concentration, > 28.74 ng/L is defined as a high concentration;

²APACHEII score ≥ 10 is defined as a high score, the two groups, P > 0.05;

³BISAP ≥ 3 is defined as a high score. BISAP ≥ 3, low melatonin concentration compared to high concentration, P = 0.02. APACHEII: Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II; BISAP: Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis.