Nomograms and risk score models for predicting survival in rectal cancer patients with neoadjuvant therapy

Figure 1 Analysis workflow in this study. ROC: Receiver operating characteristic; OS: Overall survival; DFS: Disease-free survival; KM: Kaplan-Meier.

Figure 2 Selection of prognostic factors using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model. A: A graph of the error rate of cross-validation; B: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator coefficient profiles of the 151 texture features.

Figure 3 Prognostic factor selection using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. A: A graph of the error rate of cross-validation; B: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator coefficient profiles of the 150 texture features.

Figure 4 Kaplan-Meier survival curves for the prognostic factors of overall survival and disease-free survival. A-G: The prognostic factors for overall survival; H, I: The prognostic factors for disease-free survival. BMI: Body mass index; CEA: Carcinoembryonic antigen.

Figure 5 Survival nomogram. A: The nomogram for overall survival was developed in the primary cohort with eight prognostic factors: recurrence, cancer nodules, yN, positive lymph node status, body mass index, matchmouth distance from the edge, distance from the margin after neoadjuvant therapy and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen; B: The nomogram for disease-free survival was developed in the primary cohort with two prognostic factors: ypTNM and nerve aggression.

Figure 6 Calibration curve for predicting patient survival. A: 3-year and B: 5-year overall survival (OS) rates in the primary cohort; C: 3-year OS rate in the validation cohort; D: 1-year and E: 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates in the primary cohort; F: 3-year DFS rate in the validation cohort.

Figure 7 Kaplan-Meier and receiver operating characteristic curve for the risk factor score prediction model. A: Kaplan-Meier (K-M) overall survival (OS) curves for the low-risk and high-risk groups; B: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the 3-year and C: 5-year OS rates of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC); D: K-M disease-free survival (DFS) curves for the low-risk and high-risk groups; E: ROC curves for the 3-year and F: 5-year DFS rates of LARC.