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Wu W, Yang J, Tan Y, Gu K, Shen Q, Yang C, Hu M, Xiang Y, Xu W. Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening under different scenarios of colonoscopy adherence: a microsimulation study. BMJ PUBLIC HEALTH 2025; 3:e001344. [PMID: 40433064 PMCID: PMC12107566 DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2024] [Accepted: 05/09/2025] [Indexed: 05/29/2025]
Abstract
Introduction Low adherence to colonoscopy has greatly reduced the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in China. This study aims to examine the cost-effectiveness of five initial tests followed by several scenarios of colonoscopy adherence. Methods A microsimulation model was constructed to compare the parallel use of risk assessment and two-specimen faecal immunochemical test (FIT) (currently used method in Shanghai) and several assumed initial tests (one-specimen FIT, two-specimen FIT, and risk scoring systems (RSS) incorporating one-specimen or two-specimen FIT) under adherence of observed levels, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% or 90% among 100 000 individuals aged 50-74 years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were computed using the currently used or the next most effective method as the reference. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Results The RSS incorporating two-specimen FIT was more effective in reducing CRC incidence and mortality at colonoscopy adherence levels below 80%, whereas the currently used method performed better at higher adherence levels. The currently used method was effective and cost-effective for CRC screening, with an ICER relative to the next most effective method ranging from 153.000 to 29 165.120 CNY per quality-adjusted life-year. Enhancing adherence to colonoscopy increased the detection of early-stage CRC and improved the cost-effectiveness ratio and ICER of the current method. The current method had a probability of 35.5%, 34.5%, 35.5%, 40.0%, 32.0% and 38.0% for being the optimal strategy at observed level, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% adherence, respectively, all within a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 to 3 times the gross domestic product per capita. Conclusions The parallel use of risk assessment and two-specimen FIT is a cost-effective method for CRC screening in Chinese populations. Enhancing colonoscopy adherence may further improve the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the screening programme.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weimiao Wu
- Department of Cancer Prevention, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou Institute of Medicine (HIM), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Juan Yang
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuting Tan
- Department of Epidemiology & State Key Laboratory of Systems Medicine for Cancer, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Kai Gu
- Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Shanghai, China
| | - Qiuming Shen
- Department of Epidemiology & State Key Laboratory of Systems Medicine for Cancer, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Chen Yang
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China
| | - Min Hu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yongbing Xiang
- Department of Epidemiology & State Key Laboratory of Systems Medicine for Cancer, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Wanghong Xu
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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Adair O, Lamrock F, O'Mahony JF, Lawler M, McFerran E. A Comparison of International Modeling Methods for Evaluating Health Economics of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2025; 28:790-799. [PMID: 39880192 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2025.01.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Revised: 08/06/2024] [Accepted: 01/03/2025] [Indexed: 01/31/2025]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is an accepted approach to evaluate cancer screening programs. CEA estimates partially depend on modeling methods and assumptions used. Understanding common practice when modeling cancer relies on complete, accessible descriptions of prior work. This review's objective is to comprehensively examine published CEA modeling methods used to evaluate colorectal cancer (CRC) screening from an aspiring modeler's perspective. It compares existing models, highlighting the importance of precise modeling method descriptions and essential factors when modeling CRC progression. METHODS MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus electronic databases were used. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement and data items from previous systematic reviews formed a template to extract relevant data. Specific focus included model type, natural history, appropriate data sources, and survival analysis. RESULTS Seventy-eight studies, with 52 unique models were found. Twelve previously published models were reported in 39 studies, with 39 newly developed models. CRC progression from the onset was commonly modeled, with only 6 models not including it as a model component. CONCLUSIONS Modeling methods needed to simulate CRC progression depend on the natural history structure and research requirements. For aspiring modelers, accompanying models with clear overviews and extensive modeling assumption descriptions are beneficial. Open-source modeling would also allow model replicability and result in appropriate decisions suggested for CRC screening programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivia Adair
- Mathematical Sciences Research Centre, Queen's University Belfast, Co. Antrim, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK.
| | - Felicity Lamrock
- Mathematical Sciences Research Centre, Queen's University Belfast, Co. Antrim, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
| | - James F O'Mahony
- School of Economics, University College Dublin, Co. Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Mark Lawler
- School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Co. Antrim, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
| | - Ethna McFerran
- School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Co. Antrim, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
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de Wit M, Dekker E, Spaander M, van Leerdam M, Coupe V, Meijer G, Carvalho B. Developing a New Stool Test for Colorectal Cancer Screening, the multitargetFIT (mtFIT). Dig Dis Sci 2025; 70:1683-1693. [PMID: 40232574 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-025-08919-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2025] [Accepted: 02/10/2025] [Indexed: 04/16/2025]
Abstract
Early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) through screening is the most effective method to reduce morbidity as well as mortality from this disease. Fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening has shown to be effective, especially in multi-round population-based screening. However, its sensitivity and specificity are suboptimal, leaving room for improvement. In this perspective, the development journey of a new screening test, the multitargetFIT (mtFIT), which outperforms FIT, is described from discovery down to large-scale clinical utility testing and health technology assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meike de Wit
- Department of Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Manon Spaander
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Monique van Leerdam
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle Coupe
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Decision Modeling Center, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerrit Meijer
- Department of Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Beatriz Carvalho
- Department of Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
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Carvalho B, de Klaver W, van Wifferen F, van Lanschot MCJ, van Wetering AJP, van der Zander QEW, Lemmens M, Bolijn AS, Tijssen M, Delis-van Diemen P, Buekers N, Daenen K, van der Meer J, van Mulligen PG, Hijmans BS, de Ridder S, Meiqari L, Bierkens M, van der Hulst RWM, Kuyvenhoven JPH, van Berkel AM, Depla ACTM, van Leerdam ME, Jansen JM, Wientjes CA, Straathof JWA, Keulen ETP, Ramsoekh D, Moons LMG, Zacherl M, Masclee AAM, de Wit M, Greuter MJE, van Engeland M, Dekker E, Coupé VMH, Meijer GA. Stool-Based Testing for Post-Polypectomy Colorectal Cancer Surveillance Safely Reduces Colonoscopies: The MOCCAS Study. Gastroenterology 2025; 168:121-135.e16. [PMID: 39218164 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2024.08.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2023] [Revised: 07/23/2024] [Accepted: 08/05/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Colonoscopy-based surveillance to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) causes substantial burden for patients and health care. Stool tests may help to reduce surveillance colonoscopies by limiting colonoscopies to individuals at increased risk of advanced neoplasia. METHODS This cross-sectional observational study included individuals aged 50-75 years with surveillance indication. Before bowel preparation, participants collected samples for a multitarget stool DNA test and 2 fecal immunochemical tests (FITs). Test accuracy was calculated for all surveillance indications. For the post-polypectomy indication only, which is the most common and is associated with a relatively low CRC risk, long-term impact of stool-based surveillance was evaluated with the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal Cancer (ASCCA) model. Stool-based strategies were simulated to tune each test's positivity threshold to obtain strategies at least as effective as colonoscopy surveillance. RESULTS There were 3453 individuals with results for all stool tests and colonoscopy; 2226 had previous polypectomy, 1003 had previous CRC, and 224 had a familial risk. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for advanced neoplasia were 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.75) for the multitarget stool DNA test, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.58-0.64) for the FIT OC-SENSOR (Eiken Chemical Co, Tokyo, Japan) and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56-0.61) for the FIT FOB-Gold (Sentinel, Milan, Italy). Stool-based post-polypectomy surveillance strategies at least as effective as colonoscopy surveillance reduced the number of colonoscopies by 15%-41% and required 5.6-9.5 stool tests over a person's lifetime. Multitarget stool DNA-based surveillance was more costly than colonoscopy surveillance, whereas FIT-based surveillance saved costs. CONCLUSIONS This study found that stool-based post-polypectomy surveillance strategies can be safe and cost-effective, with potential to reduce the number of colonoscopies by up to 41%. CLINICALTRIALS gov, Number: NCT02715141.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beatriz Carvalho
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Willemijn de Klaver
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Francine van Wifferen
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Meta C J van Lanschot
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Alouisa J P van Wetering
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Quirine E W van der Zander
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Margriet Lemmens
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Anne S Bolijn
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marianne Tijssen
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Nikkie Buekers
- Department of Pathology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Kathleen Daenen
- Department of Pathology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Jaleesa van der Meer
- Department of Pathology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Brenda S Hijmans
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sander de Ridder
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lana Meiqari
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Mariska Bierkens
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - René W M van der Hulst
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem, The Netherlands
| | - Johan P H Kuyvenhoven
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Spaarne Gasthuis, Haarlem, The Netherlands
| | - Annemarie M van Berkel
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Noordwest Ziekenhuis, Alkmaar, The Netherlands
| | - Annekatrien C T M Depla
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Slotervaartziekenhuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Monique E van Leerdam
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jeroen M Jansen
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Caroline A Wientjes
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jan W A Straathof
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Maxima Medisch Centrum, Veldhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Eric T P Keulen
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Zuyderland Medisch Centrum, Sittard-Geleen, The Netherlands
| | - Dewkoemar Ramsoekh
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Leon M G Moons
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Ad A M Masclee
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Meike de Wit
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Manon van Engeland
- Department of Pathology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Pathology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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5
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van Wifferen F, Greuter MJE, van Leerdam ME, Spanier MBW, Dekker E, Vasen HFA, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Canfell K, Meijer GA, Bisseling TM, Hoogerbrugge N, Coupé VMH. Combining Colonoscopy With Fecal Immunochemical Test Can Improve Current Familial Colorectal Cancer Colonoscopy Surveillance: A Modelling Study. Gastroenterology 2025; 168:136-149. [PMID: 39214503 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2024.08.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2024] [Revised: 07/22/2024] [Accepted: 08/13/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The authors assessed whether familial colorectal cancer (FCRC) surveillance in individuals without hereditary CRC can be optimized METHODS: The Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal Cancer (ASCCA)-FCRC model simulates CRC development in individuals with a family history of CRC at 2-fold and 4-fold increased CRC risk compared with the general population. The authors simulated a strategy without surveillance, the current Dutch guideline (5-yearly colonoscopy between ages 45 and 75 years), and the following 3 sets of alternative strategies: colonoscopy surveillance, surveillance combining colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and FIT-based surveillance. Each set included a range of strategies differing in age range and test interval. The optimal strategy was defined as the strategy with highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) satisfying all of the following criteria: in the (near-)efficiency area of the cost-effectiveness frontier and compared with current surveillance; noninferior effectiveness; no substantial increase in colonoscopy burden; and not more expensive. RESULTS The optimal strategy was 10-yearly colonoscopy with 2-yearly FIT between colonoscopies from ages 40 to 80 years for both 2-fold and 4-fold increased CRC risk. At 2-fold risk, this strategy prevented 0.8 more CRC deaths, gained 15.8 more QALYs at 731 fewer colonoscopies, and saved €98,000 over the lifetime of 1000 individuals compared with current surveillance. At 4-fold risk, figures were 2.1 more CRC deaths prevented, 37.0 more QALYs gained at 567 fewer colonoscopies, and €127,000 lower costs. Current surveillance was not (near-)efficient. CONCLUSIONS FIT could play an important role in FCRC surveillance. Surveillance with 10-yearly colonoscopy and 2-yearly FIT between colonoscopies from ages 40 to 80 years increased QALYs and reduced colonoscopy burden and costs compared with current FCRC surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francine van Wifferen
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Monique E van Leerdam
- Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marcel B W Spanier
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Rijnstate Hospital, Arnhem, The Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Hans F A Vasen
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council New South Wales, New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Tanya M Bisseling
- Department of Gastroenterology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Nicoline Hoogerbrugge
- Department of Human Genetics, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Meester RGS, Ladabaum U. Impact of the serrated pathway on the simulated comparative effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening tests. JNCI Cancer Spectr 2024; 8:pkae077. [PMID: 39240660 PMCID: PMC11470154 DOI: 10.1093/jncics/pkae077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2024] [Revised: 06/28/2024] [Accepted: 08/30/2024] [Indexed: 09/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancers (CRCs) arise from adenomas, which can produce fecal occult blood and can be detected endoscopically, or sessile serrated lesions (SSLs), which rarely bleed and may be more challenging to detect. Models informing CRC screening policy should reflect both pathways, accounting for uncertainty. METHODS Novel decision-analytic model of the adenoma and serrated pathways for CRC (ANSER) to compare current and emerging screening strategies, accounting for differential test sensitivities for adenomas and SSLs, and uncertainty. Strategies included colonoscopy every 10 years, stool-DNA/FIT (sDNA-FIT) every 1-3 years, or fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) every year from age 45 to 75 years. Outcomes included CRC cases and deaths, cost-effectiveness (cost/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained), and burden-benefit (colonoscopies/life-year gained), with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS ANSER predicted 62.5 (95% UI = 58.8-66.3) lifetime CRC cases and 24.1 (95% UI = 22.5-25.7) CRC deaths/1000 45-year-olds without screening, and 78%-87% CRC mortality reductions with screening. The tests' outcome distributions overlapped for QALYs gained but separated for required colonoscopies and costs. All strategies cost less than $100 000/QALY gained vs no screening. Colonoscopy was the most effective and cost-effective, costing $9300/life-year gained (95% UI = $500-$21 900) vs FIT. sDNA-FIT cost more than $500 000/QALY gained vs FIT. As more CRCs arose from SSLs, colonoscopy remained preferred based on clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness, but cost-effectiveness improved for a next-generation sDNA-FIT. CONCLUSION When the serrated pathway is considered, modeling suggests that colonoscopy is cost-effective vs FIT. In contrast, modeling suggests that sDNA-FIT is not cost-effective vs FIT despite its greater sensitivity for SSLs, even if a substantial minority of CRCs arise from SSLs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinier G S Meester
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Freenome Holdings, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Uri Ladabaum
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
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Irwin MP, Dutta T, Jambor MA, Morgan MJ, Turner CE, Liang Y. Realized impact of COVID-19 related disruptions on the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program. ANZ J Surg 2024; 94:1273-1278. [PMID: 38345127 DOI: 10.1111/ans.18894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Revised: 01/12/2024] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 08/28/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer mortality in Australia (1). The National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) aims to reduce mortality through early detection with a biennial faecal occult blood test for Australians aged 50-74 years (2). Modelling predicted COVID-19 would reduce participation and delay colonoscopies despite the NBCSP continuing during the pandemic (3). This study analyses the realized impact of COVID-19 related disruptions on the NBCSP and the effect on mortality. METHODS NBCSP participation, time to colonoscopy and annualized mortality were compared before and during COVID-19. The effect on mortality was determined using a validated microsimulation model (4, 5). RESULTS From 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019, 2 497 317 people participated in the NBCSP and 168 390 received a colonoscopy, compared to 2 490 265 and 162 573 from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. Relative participation decreased 6 % and the proportion of colonoscopies performed within the recommended 120 days increased 14.5%. A disproportionally greater impact was observed outside major cities and in lower socioeconomic areas. An estimated 98-111 additional colorectal cancer deaths resulted from 3 % fewer colonoscopies performed during the pandemic. CONCLUSION This study presents the most comprehensive analysis of the realized impact of COVID-19 on the NBCSP. Catch-up screening would be best targeted at Australians from rural and lower socioeconomic areas where participation remains low. Streamlined referral pathways and additional colonoscopy provisioning is required as less than two thirds of screen positive patients receive a colonoscopy within the recommended 120 days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew P Irwin
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital, South Western Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Clinical Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Medicine, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Trisha Dutta
- Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Maxwell A Jambor
- Department of Surgery, Wyong Hospital, Central Coast Local Health District, Gosford, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Matthew J Morgan
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital, South Western Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Clinical Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Catherine E Turner
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital, South Western Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Yicong Liang
- Department of Colorectal Surgery, Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital, South Western Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Clinical Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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8
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Sullivan BA, Lieberman DA. Colon Polyp Surveillance: Separating the Wheat From the Chaff. Gastroenterology 2024; 166:743-757. [PMID: 38224860 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2023.11.305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/17/2024]
Abstract
One goal of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is to prevent CRC incidence by removing precancerous colonic polyps, which are detected in up to 50% of screening examinations. Yet, the lifetime risk of CRC is 3.9%-4.3%, so it is clear that most of these individuals with polyps would not develop CRC in their lifetime. It is, therefore, a challenge to determine which individuals with polyps will benefit from follow-up, and at what intervals. There is some evidence that individuals with advanced polyps, based on size and histology, benefit from intensive surveillance. However, a large proportion of individuals will have small polyps without advanced histologic features (ie, "nonadvanced"), where the benefits of surveillance are uncertain and controversial. Demand for surveillance will further increase as more polyps are detected due to increased screening uptake, recent United States recommendations to expand screening to younger individuals, and emergence of polyp detection technology. We review the current understanding and clinical implications of the natural history, biology, and outcomes associated with various categories of colon polyps based on size, histology, and number. Our aims are to highlight key knowledge gaps, specifically focusing on certain categories of polyps that may not be associated with future CRC risk, and to provide insights to inform research priorities and potential management strategies. Optimization of CRC prevention programs based on updated knowledge about the future risks associated with various colon polyps is essential to ensure cost-effective screening and surveillance, wise use of resources, and inform efforts to personalize recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian A Sullivan
- Cooperative Studies Program Epidemiology Center-Durham, Durham VA Health Care System, Durham, North Carolina; Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina.
| | - David A Lieberman
- Portland Veteran Affairs Medical Center, Portland, Oregon; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon
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9
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Yebyo HG, van Wifferen F, Pluymen LPM, Leeflang MMG, Dekker E, Coupé VMH, Puhan MA, Greuter MJE, Stegeman I. Benefit-Harm Analysis for Informed Decision Making on Participating in Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Modeling Study. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2024; 27:397-404. [PMID: 38141815 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2023.12.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2023] [Revised: 12/04/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/25/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To facilitate informed decision making on participating in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, we assessed the benefit-harm balance of CRC screening for a wide range of subgroups over different time horizons. METHODS The study combined incidence proportions of benefits and harms of (not) participating in CRC screening estimated by the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to CAncer microsimulation model, a preference eliciting survey, and benefit-harm balance modeling combining all outcomes to determine the net health benefit of CRC screening over 10, 20, and 30 years. Probability of net health benefit was estimated for 210 different subgroups based on age, sex, previous participation in CRC screening, and lifestyle. RESULTS CRC screening was net beneficial in 183 of 210 subgroups over 30 years (median probability [MP] of 0.79, interquartile range [IQR] of 0.69-0.85) across subgroups. Net health benefit was greater for men (MP 0.82; IQR 0.69-0.89) than women (MP 0.76; IQR 0.67-0.83) and for those without history of participation in previous screenings (MP 0.84; IQR 0.80-0.89) compared with those with (MP 0.69; IQR 0.59-0.75). Net health benefit decreased with increasing age, from MP of 0.84 (IQR 0.80-0.86) at age 55 to 0.61 (IQR 0.56-0.71) at age 75. Shorter time horizons led to lower benefit, with MP of 0.70 (IQR 0.62-0.80) over 20 years and 0.54 (IQR 0.48-0.67) over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS Our benefit-harm analysis provides information about net health benefit of screening participation, based on important characteristics and preferences of individuals, which could assist screening invitees in making informed decisions on screening participation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Henock G Yebyo
- University of Zurich, Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Ldwig Maximilian University (LMU), Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology (IBE), Public Health and Health Services Research, Munich, Germany
| | - Francine van Wifferen
- Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit, Epidemiology and Data Science, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Linda P M Pluymen
- Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Mariska M G Leeflang
- Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit, Epidemiology and Data Science, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Milo A Puhan
- University of Zurich, Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit, Epidemiology and Data Science, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Inge Stegeman
- Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; University Medical Centre Utrecht, Department of Otorhinolaryngology and Head & Neck Surgery, Utrecht, The Netherlands; University Medical Centre Utrecht, Brain Centre, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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10
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Wisse PHA, de Klaver W, van Wifferen F, van Maaren-Meijer FG, van Ingen HE, Meiqari L, Huitink I, Bierkens M, Lemmens M, Greuter MJE, van Leerdam ME, Spaander MCW, Dekker E, Coupé VMH, Carvalho B, de Wit M, Meijer GA. The multitarget faecal immunochemical test for improving stool-based colorectal cancer screening programmes: a Dutch population-based, paired-design, intervention study. Lancet Oncol 2024; 25:326-337. [PMID: 38346438 DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(23)00651-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The faecal immunochemical test (FIT) is widely employed for colorectal cancer screening. However, its sensitivity for advanced precursor lesions remains suboptimal. The multitarget FIT (mtFIT), measuring haemoglobin, calprotectin, and serpin family F member 2, has demonstrated enhanced sensitivity for advanced neoplasia, especially advanced adenomas, at equal specificity to FIT. This study aimed to prospectively validate and investigate the clinical utlitity of mtFIT versus FIT in a setting of population-based colorectal cancer screening. METHODS Individuals aged 55-75 years and who were eligible for the Dutch national FIT-based colorectal cancer screening programme were invited to submit both a FIT and mtFIT sample collected from the same bowel movement. Positive FIT (47 μg/g haemoglobin cutoff) or mtFIT (based on decision-tree algorithm) led to a colonoscopy referral. The primary outcome was the relative detection rate of mtFIT versus FIT for all advanced neoplasia. Secondary outcomes were the relative detection rates of colorectal cancer, advanced adenoma, and advanced serrated polyps individually and the long-term effect of mtFIT-based versus FIT-based programmatic screening on colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and cost, determined with microsimulation modelling. The study has been registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05314309, and is complete. FINDINGS Between March 25 and Dec 7, 2022, 35 786 individuals were invited to participate in the study, of whom 15 283 (42·7%) consented, and 13 187 (86·3%) of 15 283 provided both mtFIT and FIT samples with valid results. Of the 13 187 participants, 6637 (50·3%) were male and 6550 (49·7%) were female. mtFIT showed a 9·11% (95% CI 8·62-9·61) positivity rate and 2·27% (95% CI 2·02-2·54) detection rate for advanced neoplasia, compared with a positivity rate of 4·08% (3·75-4·43) and a detection rate of 1·21% (1·03-1·41) for FIT. Detection rates of mtFIT versus FIT were 0·20% (95% CI 0·13-0·29) versus 0·17% (0·11-0·27) for colorectal cancer; 1·64% (1·43-1·87) versus 0·86% (0·72-1·04) for advanced adenoma, and 0·43% (0·33-0·56) versus 0·17% (0·11-0·26) for advanced serrated polyps. Modelling demonstrated that mtFIT-based screening could reduce colorectal cancer incidence by 21% and associated mortality by 18% compared with the current Dutch colorectal cancer screening programme, at feasible costs. Furthermore, at equal positivity rates, mtFIT outperformed FIT in terms of diagnostic yield. At an equally low positivity rate, mtFIT-based screening was predicted to further decrease colorectal cancer incidence by 5% and associated mortality by 4% compared with FIT-based screening. INTERPRETATION The higher detection rate of mtFIT for advanced adenoma compared with FIT holds the potential to translate into additional and clinically meaningful long-term colorectal cancer incidence and associated mortality reductions in programmatic colorectal cancer screening. FUNDING Stand Up to Cancer, Dutch Cancer Society, Dutch Digestive Foundation, and Health~Holland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pieter H A Wisse
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Willemijn de Klaver
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Francine van Wifferen
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - Huub E van Ingen
- Department of Clinical Chemistry, Star-shl, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Lana Meiqari
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Iris Huitink
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Mariska Bierkens
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Margriet Lemmens
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Monique E van Leerdam
- Department of Gastro-intestinal Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Manon C W Spaander
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Beatriz Carvalho
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Meike de Wit
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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11
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Worthington J, van Wifferen F, Sun Z, de Jonge L, Lew JB, Greuter MJ, van den Puttelaar R, Feletto E, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Coupé VM, Ein Yong JH, Canfell K, I-PaRCS Consortium. Potential global loss of life expected due to COVID-19 disruptions to organised colorectal cancer screening. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 62:102081. [PMID: 37538541 PMCID: PMC10393619 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) decreases cancer burden through removal of precancerous lesions and early detection of cancer. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted organised CRC screening programs worldwide, with some programs completely suspending screening and others experiencing significant decreases in participation and diagnostic follow-up. This study estimated the global impact of screening disruptions on CRC outcomes, and potential effects of catch-up screening. Methods Organised screening programs were identified in 29 countries, and data on participation rates and COVID-related changes to screening in 2020 were extracted where available. Four independent microsimulation models (ASCCA, MISCAN-Colon, OncoSim, and Policy1-Bowel) were used to estimate the long-term impact on CRC cases and deaths, based on decreases to screening participation in 2020. For countries where 2020 participation data were not available, changes to screening were approximated based on excess mortality rates. Catch-up strategies involving additional screening in 2021 were also simulated. Findings In countries for which direct data were available, organised CRC screening volumes at a country level decreased by an estimated 1.3-40.5% in 2020. Globally, it is estimated that COVID-related screening decreases led to a deficit of 7.4 million fewer faecal screens performed in 2020. In the absence of any organised catch-up screening, this would lead to an estimated 13,000 additional CRC cases and 7,900 deaths globally from 2020 to 2050; 79% of the additional cases and 85% of additional deaths could have been prevented with catch-up screening, respectively. Interpretation COVID-19-related disruptions to screening will cause excess CRC cases and deaths, but appropriately implemented catch-up screening could have reduced the burden by over 80%. Careful management of any disruption is key to improving the resilience of colorectal cancer screening programs. Funding The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by Cancer Council New South Wales, Health Canada, and Dutch National Institute for Public Health and Environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joachim Worthington
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council New South Wales, Australia
| | - Francine van Wifferen
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Zhuolu Sun
- Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Lucie de Jonge
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council New South Wales, Australia
| | - Marjolein J.E. Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Eleonora Feletto
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council New South Wales, Australia
| | - Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Veerle M.H. Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Karen Canfell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council New South Wales, Australia
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12
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Vahdat V, Alagoz O, Chen JV, Saoud L, Borah BJ, Limburg PJ. Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks. Med Decis Making 2023; 43:719-736. [PMID: 37434445 PMCID: PMC10422851 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x231184175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/13/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Machine learning (ML)-based emulators improve the calibration of decision-analytical models, but their performance in complex microsimulation models is yet to be determined. METHODS We demonstrated the use of an ML-based emulator with the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model, which includes 23 unknown natural history input parameters to replicate the CRC epidemiology in the United States. We first generated 15,000 input combinations and ran the CRC-AIM model to evaluate CRC incidence, adenoma size distribution, and the percentage of small adenoma detected by colonoscopy. We then used this data set to train several ML algorithms, including deep neural network (DNN), random forest, and several gradient boosting variants (i.e., XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) and compared their performance. We evaluated 10 million potential input combinations using the selected emulator and examined input combinations that best estimated observed calibration targets. Furthermore, we cross-validated outcomes generated by the CRC-AIM model with those made by CISNET models. The calibrated CRC-AIM model was externally validated using the United Kingdom Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial (UKFSST). RESULTS The DNN with proper preprocessing outperformed other tested ML algorithms and successfully predicted all 8 outcomes for different input combinations. It took 473 s for the trained DNN to predict outcomes for 10 million inputs, which would have required 190 CPU-years without our DNN. The overall calibration process took 104 CPU-days, which included building the data set, training, selecting, and hyperparameter tuning of the ML algorithms. While 7 input combinations had acceptable fit to the targets, a combination that best fits all outcomes was selected as the best vector. Almost all of the predictions made by the best vector laid within those from the CISNET models, demonstrating CRC-AIM's cross-model validity. Similarly, CRC-AIM accurately predicted the hazard ratios of CRC incidence and mortality as reported by UKFSST, demonstrating its external validity. Examination of the impact of calibration targets suggested that the selection of the calibration target had a substantial impact on model outcomes in terms of life-year gains with screening. CONCLUSIONS Emulators such as a DNN that is meticulously selected and trained can substantially reduce the computational burden of calibrating complex microsimulation models. HIGHLIGHTS Calibrating a microsimulation model, a process to find unobservable parameters so that the model fits observed data, is computationally complex.We used a deep neural network model, a popular machine learning algorithm, to calibrate the Colorectal Cancer Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model.We demonstrated that our approach provides an efficient and accurate method to significantly speed up calibration in microsimulation models.The calibration process successfully provided cross-model validation of CRC-AIM against 3 established CISNET models and also externally validated against a randomized controlled trial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vahab Vahdat
- Health Economics and Outcome Research, Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Oguzhan Alagoz
- Departments of Industrial & Systems Engineering and Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Jing Voon Chen
- Health Economics and Outcome Research, Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Leila Saoud
- Health Economics and Outcome Research, Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Bijan J. Borah
- Division of Health Care Delivery Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - Paul J. Limburg
- Health Economics and Outcome Research, Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, WI, USA
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13
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Zheng S, Schrijvers JJA, Greuter MJW, Kats-Ugurlu G, Lu W, de Bock GH. Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening on All-Cause and CRC-Specific Mortality Reduction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Cancers (Basel) 2023; 15:cancers15071948. [PMID: 37046609 PMCID: PMC10093633 DOI: 10.3390/cancers15071948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
(1) Background: The aim of this study was to pool and compare all-cause and colorectal cancer (CRC) specific mortality reduction of CRC screening in randomized control trials (RCTs) and simulation models, and to determine factors that influence screening effectiveness. (2) Methods: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane library were searched for eligible studies. Multi-use simulation models or RCTs that compared the mortality of CRC screening with no screening in general population were included. CRC-specific and all-cause mortality rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by a bivariate random model. (3) Results: 10 RCTs and 47 model studies were retrieved. The pooled CRC-specific mortality rate ratios in RCTs were 0.88 (0.80, 0.96) and 0.76 (0.68, 0.84) for guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) and single flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening, respectively. For the model studies, the rate ratios were 0.45 (0.39, 0.51) for biennial fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), 0.31 (0.28, 0.34) for biennial gFOBT, 0.61 (0.53, 0.72) for single FS, 0.27 (0.21, 0.35) for 10-yearly colonoscopy, and 0.35 (0.29, 0.42) for 5-yearly FS. The CRC-specific mortality reduction of gFOBT increased with higher adherence in both studies (RCT: 0.78 (0.68, 0.89) vs. 0.92 (0.87, 0.98), model: 0.30 (0.28, 0.33) vs. 0.92 (0.51, 1.63)). Model studies showed a 0.62-1.1% all-cause mortality reduction with single FS screening. (4) Conclusions: Based on RCTs and model studies, biennial FIT/gFOBT, single and 5-yearly FS, and 10-yearly colonoscopy screening significantly reduces CRC-specific mortality. The model estimates are much higher than in RCTs, because the simulated biennial gFOBT assumes higher adherence. The effectiveness of screening increases at younger screening initiation ages and higher adherences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Senshuang Zheng
- Medical Center Groningen, Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jelle J A Schrijvers
- Medical Center Groningen, Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marcel J W Greuter
- Medical Center Groningen, Department of Radiology, University of Groningen, 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands
- Robotics and Mechatronics (RaM) Group, Technical Medical Centre, Faculty of Electrical Engineering Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Twente, 7522 NH Enschede, The Netherlands
| | - Gürsah Kats-Ugurlu
- Medical Center Groningen, Department of Pathology, University of Groningen, 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Wenli Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China
| | - Geertruida H de Bock
- Medical Center Groningen, Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands
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14
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Cheng CY, Calderazzo S, Schramm C, Schlander M. Modeling the Natural History and Screening Effects of Colorectal Cancer Using Both Adenoma and Serrated Neoplasia Pathways: The Development, Calibration, and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model. MDM Policy Pract 2023; 8:23814683221145701. [PMID: 36698854 PMCID: PMC9869210 DOI: 10.1177/23814683221145701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Background. Existing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models mostly focus on the adenoma pathway of CRC development, overlooking the serrated neoplasia pathway, which might result in overly optimistic screening predictions. In addition, Bayesian inference methods have not been widely used for model calibration. We aimed to develop a CRC screening model accounting for both pathways, calibrate it with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, and validate it with large CRC screening trials. Methods. A discrete event simulation (DES) of the CRC natural history (DECAS) was constructed using the adenoma and serrated pathways in R software. The model simulates CRC-related events in a specific birth cohort through various natural history states. Calibration took advantage of 74 prevalence data points from the German screening colonoscopy program of 5.2 million average-risk participants using an ABC method. CRC incidence outputs from DECAS were validated with the German national cancer registry data; screening effects were validated using 17-y data from the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening sigmoidoscopy trial and a German screening colonoscopy cohort study. Results. The Bayesian calibration rendered 1,000 sets of posterior parameter samples. With the calibrated parameters, the observed age- and sex-specific CRC prevalences from the German registries were within the 95% DECAS-predicted intervals. Regarding screening effects, DECAS predicted a 41% (95% intervals 30%-51%) and 62% (95% intervals 55%-68%) reduction in 17-y cumulative CRC mortality for a single screening sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy, respectively, falling within 95% confidence intervals reported in the 2 clinical studies used for validation. Conclusions. We presented DECAS, the first Bayesian-calibrated DES model for CRC natural history and screening, accounting for 2 CRC tumorigenesis pathways. The validated model can serve as a valid tool to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of CRC screening strategies. Highlights This article presents a new discrete event simulation model, DECAS, which models both adenoma-carcinoma and serrated neoplasia pathways for colorectal cancer (CRC) development and CRC screening effects.DECAS is calibrated based on a Bayesian inference method using the data from German screening colonoscopy program, which consists of more than 5 million first-time average-risk participants aged 55 years and older in 2003 to 2014.DECAS is flexible for evaluating various CRC screening strategies and can differentiate screening effects in different parts of the colon.DECAS is validated with large screening sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy clinical study data and can be further used to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of German colorectal cancer screening strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chih-Yuan Cheng
- Division of Health Economics, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Mannheim Medical Faculty, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Silvia Calderazzo
- Division of Biostatistics, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Christoph Schramm
- Clinics of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Transplantation Medicine, Essen University Hospital, Essen, Germany
| | - Michael Schlander
- Division of Health Economics, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Mannheim Medical Faculty, University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
- Alfred Weber Institute, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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15
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Wisse PHA, de Klaver W, van Wifferen F, Meiqari L, Bierkens M, Greuter MJE, Carvalho B, van Leerdam ME, Spaander MCW, Dekker E, Coupé VMH, de Wit M, Meijer GA. The multitarget fecal immunochemical test versus the fecal immunochemical test for programmatic colorectal cancer screening: a cross-sectional intervention study with paired design. BMC Cancer 2022; 22:1299. [PMID: 36503495 PMCID: PMC9743627 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-022-10372-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 11/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many screening programs for colorectal cancer (CRC) use the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) to triage individuals for colonoscopy. Although these programs reduce CRC incidence and CRC-related mortality, the detection of advanced precursor lesions (advanced adenomas and advanced serrated polyps) by FIT could be improved. As an alternative for FIT, the antibody-based multitargetFIT (mtFIT) has been proposed. The mtFIT measures three protein markers: hemoglobin, calprotectin, and serpin family F member 2. In a retrospective diagnostic accuracy study in a large colonoscopy-controlled series (n = 1284), mtFIT showed increased sensitivity for advanced neoplasia (AN), at equal specificity, compared to FIT (42.9% versus 37.3%; p = 0.025). This increase was mainly due to a higher sensitivity of mtFIT for advanced adenomas (37.8% versus 28.1% for FIT; p = 0.006). The present mtFIT study aims to prospectively validate these findings in the context of the Dutch national CRC screening program. METHOD The mtFIT study is a cross-sectional intervention study with a paired design. Eligible subjects for the Dutch FIT-based national CRC screening program are invited to perform mtFIT in addition to FIT. Samples are collected at home, from the same bowel movement, and are shipped to a central laboratory by postal mail. If either one or both tests are positive, participants are referred for colonoscopy. Detailed colonoscopy and pathology data are centrally stored in a national screening database (ScreenIT; Topicus, Deventer, the Netherlands) that is managed by the screening organization, and will be retrieved for this study. We aim to determine the relative sensitivity for AN, comprising of CRC, advanced adenomas and advanced serrated polyps, of mtFIT compared to FIT at an equal positivity rate. Additionally, we will use the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer model to predict lifetime health effects and costs for programmatic mtFIT- versus FIT-based screening. The target sample size is 13,131 participants. DISCUSSION The outcome of this study will inform on the comparative clinical utility of mtFIT versus FIT in the Dutch national CRC screening program and is an important step forward in the development of a new non-invasive stool test for CRC screening. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov ; NCT05314309, registered April 6th 2022, first inclusions March 25th 2022 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=NCT05314309&cntry=&state=&city=&dist =.
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Affiliation(s)
- P. H. A. Wisse
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX the Netherlands ,grid.5645.2000000040459992XDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Doctor Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, GD 3015 the Netherlands
| | - W. de Klaver
- grid.5645.2000000040459992XDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Doctor Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, GD 3015 the Netherlands ,grid.7177.60000000084992262Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, Amsterdam, AZ 1105 the Netherlands
| | - F. van Wifferen
- grid.509540.d0000 0004 6880 3010Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, HV 1081 the Netherlands
| | - L. Meiqari
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX the Netherlands
| | - M. Bierkens
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX the Netherlands
| | - M. J. E. Greuter
- grid.509540.d0000 0004 6880 3010Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, HV 1081 the Netherlands
| | - B. Carvalho
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX the Netherlands
| | - M. E. van Leerdam
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Gastro-intestinal Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX 1066 the Netherlands
| | - M. C. W. Spaander
- grid.5645.2000000040459992XDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Doctor Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, GD 3015 the Netherlands
| | - E. Dekker
- grid.7177.60000000084992262Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, Amsterdam, AZ 1105 the Netherlands
| | - V. M. H. Coupé
- grid.509540.d0000 0004 6880 3010Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Location Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, HV 1081 the Netherlands
| | - M. de Wit
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX the Netherlands
| | - G. A. Meijer
- grid.430814.a0000 0001 0674 1393Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Plesmanlaan 121, Amsterdam, CX the Netherlands
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16
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van Wifferen F, Greuter MJE, Lissenberg-Witte BI, Carvalho B, Meijer GA, Dekker E, Campari C, Garcia M, Rabeneck L, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Senore C, Coupé VMH, Segnan N, McCarthy S, Puricelli-Perin DM, Portillo I, Jahn B. Guidance for setting international standards on reporting longitudinal adherence to stool-based colorectal cancer screening. Prev Med 2022; 164:107187. [PMID: 35963311 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Revised: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 08/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Longitudinal adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is reported using different summarizing measures, which hampers international comparison. We provide evidence to guide recommendations on which longitudinal adherence measure to report. Using adherence data over four stool-based CRC screening rounds in three countries, we calculated six summarizing adherence measures; adherence over all rounds, adherence per round, rescreening, full programme adherence (yes/no), regularity (never/inconsistent/consistent screenees) and number of times participated. For each measure, we calculated the accuracy in capturing the observed adherence patterns. Using the ASCCA model, we predicted screening effectiveness when using summarizing measures as model input versus the observed adherence patterns. Adherence over all rounds in the Italian, Spanish and Dutch cohorts was 64.9%, 42.8% and 61.5%, respectively, and the proportion of consistent screenees was 50.9%, 26.3% and 45.7%. Number of times participated and regularity were most accurate and resulted in similar model-predicted screening effectiveness as simulating the observed adherence patterns of Italy, Spain and the Netherlands (mortality reductions: 24.4%, 16.9% and 23.5%). Adherence over all rounds and adherence per round were least accurate. Screening effectiveness was overestimated when using adherence over all rounds (mortality reductions: 26.8%, 19.4% and 25.7%) and adherence per round (mortality reductions: 26.8%, 19.5% and 25.9%). To conclude, number of times participated and regularity were most accurate and resulted in similar model-predicted screening effectiveness as using the observed adherence patterns. However they require longitudinal data. To facilitate international comparison of CRC screening programme performance, consensus on an accurate adherence measure to report should be reached.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francine van Wifferen
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Birgit I Lissenberg-Witte
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Beatriz Carvalho
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Cinzia Campari
- Screening Unit, Azienda USL-IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Montse Garcia
- Cancer Screening Unit, Prevention and Control Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Linda Rabeneck
- Prevention & Cancer Control, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), University of Toronto, Canada
| | - Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Carlo Senore
- SSD Epidemiology, screening unit - CPO, University Hospital "Città della Salute e della Scienza", Turin, Italy
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - Nereo Segnan
- Centre for Cancer Prevention, CPO, Piedmonte, Turin, Italy
| | - Sharon McCarthy
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Isabel Portillo
- Osakidetza Basque Health Service, Basque Country Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme, 48011 Bilbao, Spain; Biocruces Health Research Institute, Cancer Biomarker Area, 48903 Barakaldo, Spain
| | - Beate Jahn
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer Zentrum 1, A-6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria
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17
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Ren Y, Zhao M, Zhou D, Xing Q, Gong F, Tang W. Cost-effectiveness analysis of colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical testing for colorectal cancer screening in China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:952378. [PMID: 36033786 PMCID: PMC9412186 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.952378] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 07/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the colorectal cancer screening in China, and that when the screening was implemented in a specific region. Methods A 13-state Markov model was established to compare four screening protocols, including annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT1), biennial fecal immunochemical testing (FIT2), electronic colonoscopy every 10 years (e-CSPY10), and electronic colonoscopy every 5 years (e-CSPY5), with no screening from the perspective of Chinese healthcare system. The model simulated the health states of a cohort of 100,000 average-risk individuals aging from 50 to 75. Additionally, scenarios including the implementation in a specific region, starting from 40, and incompletely successful treatment of cancer were also analyzed. Results Annual and biennial FIT could save 8.13USD (US Dollar) and 44.96USD per person, and increase 0.0705QALYs (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) and 0.2341 QALYs compared with no screening, respectively. Annual FIT could decrease costs by 36.81USD per person and increase 0.1637 QALYs in comparison to biennial FIT. The results showed that both annual and biennial FIT for screening were dominant over no screening, and annual FIT was dominant over biennial FIT. The ICER (Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio) for e-CSPY10 were 1183.51USD/QALY and 536.66USD/QALY compared with FIT1 and FIT2. The ICER for e-CSPY5 were 1158.16USD/QALY and 770.85USD/QALY compared with FIT1 and FIT2. And the ICER for e-CSPY5 relative to e-CSPY10 was 358.71USD/QALY. All the ICER values were lower than the economic threshold of 2021 Chinese GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita in 2021(12554.42USD). Conclusions It is worthwhile to popularize CRC screening in mainland China, as FIT always saving costs and colonoscopy is cost-effective. Regions with high income can take electronic colonoscopy every 10 years, or even every 5 years into consideration when determining the specific strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yinan Ren
- School of International Pharmaceutical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Center for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research of China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Mingye Zhao
- School of International Pharmaceutical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Center for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research of China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Dachuang Zhou
- School of International Pharmaceutical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Center for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research of China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Qian Xing
- School of International Pharmaceutical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Center for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research of China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Fangfang Gong
- Department of Hospital Group Office, Shenzhen Luohu Hospital Group Luohu People's Hospital (The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University), Shenzhen, China
| | - Wenxi Tang
- School of International Pharmaceutical Business, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
- Center for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research of China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
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Lu B, Wang L, Lu M, Zhang Y, Cai J, Luo C, Chen H, Dai M. Microsimulation Model for Prevention and Intervention of Coloretal Cancer in China (MIMIC-CRC): Development, Calibration, Validation, and Application. Front Oncol 2022; 12:883401. [PMID: 35530306 PMCID: PMC9072786 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.883401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction A microsimulation model provides important references for decision-making regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention strategies, yet such a well-validated model is scarce in China. Methods We comprehensively introduce the development of MIcrosimulation Model for the prevention and Intervention of Colorectal Cancer in China (MIMIC-CRC). The MIMIC-CRC was first constructed to simulate the natural history of CRC based on the adenoma-carcinoma pathway. The parameters were calibrated and validated using data from population-based cancer registry data and CRC screening programs. Furthermore, to assess the model’s external validity, we compared the model-derived results to outcome patterns of a sigmoidoscopy screening trial in the UK [UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening (UKFSS) trial]. Finally, we evaluated the application potential of the MIMIC-CRC model in CRC screening by comparing the 8 different strategies. Results We found that most of the model-predicted colorectal lesion prevalence was within the 95% CIs of observed prevalence in a large population-based CRC screening program in China. In addition, model-predicted sex- and age-specific CRC incidence and mortality were equivalent to the registry-based data. The hazard ratios of model-estimated CRC-related incidence and mortality for sigmoidoscopy screening compared to no screening were 0.60 and 0.51, respectively, which were comparable to the reported results of the UKFSS trial. Moreover, we found that all 8 strategies could reduce CRC incidence and mortality compared to no screening. Conclusions The well-calibrated and validated MIMIC-CRC model may represent a valid tool to assess the comparative effectiveness of CRC screening strategies and will be useful for further decision-making to CRC prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin Lu
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Le Wang
- Department of Cancer Prevention, Cancer Hospital of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Zhejiang Cancer Hospital), Institute of Cancer and Basic Medicine, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou, China
| | - Ming Lu
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yuhan Zhang
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Cai
- Department of General Surgery, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Chenyu Luo
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Hongda Chen
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Min Dai, ; Hongda Chen,
| | - Min Dai
- Medical Research Center, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Min Dai, ; Hongda Chen,
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19
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Abstract
Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-associated mortality, with a lifetime risk of approximately 4% to 5%. Colorectal cancer develops from the sequential acquisition of defined genetic mutations in the colonic epithelium. Tumorigenesis from normal tissue to cancer occurs largely through 3 pathways: the chromosomal instability pathway, the microsatellite instability pathway, and the sessile serrated pathway. Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality have decreased by approximately 35% since the beginning of screening programs in the 1990s, although other factors such as use of aspirin for coronary disease prevention and decreased smoking rates may also be important. In this review, we discuss the etiology, epidemiology, and histology of colorectal polyps and cancer.
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Kisiel JB, Itzkowitz SH, Ozbay AB, Saoud L, Parton M, Lieberman D, Limburg PJ. Impact of the Sessile Serrated Polyp Pathway on Predicted Colorectal Cancer Outcomes. GASTRO HEP ADVANCES 2022; 1:55-62. [PMID: 39129937 PMCID: PMC11307850 DOI: 10.1016/j.gastha.2021.10.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/14/2021] [Indexed: 08/13/2024]
Abstract
Background and Aims Approximately 20%-30% of colorectal cancers (CRCs) arise from the serrated polyp pathway. CRC screening options have differential sensitivity to detect sessile serrated polyps (SSPs). We used the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality Microsimulation Model (CRC-AIM) to assess how the detection of SSPs impacts predicted life years gained (LYG), CRC incidence, and CRC mortality with multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening. Methods A simulated cohort of average-risk US individuals underwent triennial mt-sDNA or annual FIT screening between ages 45-75 years. SSP-attributed CRCs were modeled at 0% (base case), 14.3%, 20%, and 30%, in combination with 4 adherence & attendance scenarios: S1: 100% stool-screening adherence/100% follow-up colonoscopy attendance after a positive stool test; S2: reported stool-screening adherence (mt-sDNA = 71%; FIT = 43%)/100% follow-up colonoscopy attendance; S3: reported stool-screening adherence/reported follow-up colonoscopy attendance (mt-sDNA = 72%; FIT = 47%); and S4: reported stool-screening adherence/72% follow-up colonoscopy attendance. Outcomes were per 1000 individuals. Sensitivity analyses used ranges of stool-screening adherence or follow-up attendance. Results At S1, S2, S3, and S4, LYG with FIT at the base case (0% SSP-attributed CRC) was 346.7, 279.3, 126.6, and 196.1, respectively, and with mt-sDNA was 324.6, 311.8, 215.8, and 215.8, respectively. Among the 4 adherence/attendance scenarios, modeling SSP-attributed CRCs decreased LYG by 4.9-20.9 with FIT and 2.0-5.1 with mt-sDNA. At S3 and 30% SSP-attributable CRCs, mt-sDNA had 95.1 more LYG, 21.5% greater CRC incidence reduction, and 22.2% greater CRC mortality reduction than FIT. Conclusion Incorporating SSPs and real-world adherence into the CRC-AIM modeling analyses yielded more practice-relevant estimates of CRC screening outcomes and should be applied in future studies to afford more appropriate assessment of comparative effectiveness estimates between guideline-endorsed screening options.
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Affiliation(s)
- John B. Kisiel
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota
| | - Steven H. Itzkowitz
- Division of Gastroenterology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
| | | | - Leila Saoud
- Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, Wisconsin
| | | | - David Lieberman
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, School of Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon
| | - Paul J. Limburg
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota
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21
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van Wifferen F, de Jonge L, Worthington J, Greuter MJ, Lew JB, Nadeau C, van den Puttelaar R, Feletto E, Yong JH, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Canfell K, Coupé VM, Anderson L, Besó Delgado M, Binefa G, Cust A, Dekker E, Dell’Anna V, Essue B, Espinas J, Flander L, Garcia M, Hahn A, Idigoras I, Katanoda K, Laghi L, Lamrock F, McFerran E, Majek O, Molina-Barceló A, Ledger M, Musa O, Njor S, O’Connor K, Portillo I, Salas D, Senore C, Smith H, Symonds E, Tachecí I, Taksler G, Tolani M, Treby M, Zauber A, Zheng Y. Prioritisation of colonoscopy services in colorectal cancer screening programmes to minimise impact of COVID-19 pandemic on predicted cancer burden: A comparative modelling study. J Med Screen 2021; 29:72-83. [PMID: 35100894 PMCID: PMC9087314 DOI: 10.1177/09691413211056777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Objectives Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening with a faecal immunochemical test (FIT) has
been disrupted in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Performing
catch-up of missed screens while maintaining regular screening services
requires additional colonoscopy capacity that may not be available. This
study aimed to compare strategies that clear the screening backlog using
limited colonoscopy resources. Methods A range of strategies were simulated using four country-specific CRC
natural-history models: Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer
(ASCCA) and MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis for CRC (MISCAN-Colon) (both
in the Netherlands), Policy1-Bowel (Australia) and OncoSim (Canada).
Strategies assumed a 3-month screening disruption with varying recovery
period lengths (6, 12, and 24 months) and varying FIT thresholds for
diagnostic colonoscopy. Increasing the FIT threshold reduces the number of
referrals to diagnostic colonoscopy. Outcomes for each strategy were
colonoscopy demand and excess CRC-related deaths due to the disruption. Results Performing catch-up using the regular FIT threshold in 6, 12 and 24 months
could prevent most excess CRC-related deaths, but required 50%, 25% and
12.5% additional colonoscopy demand, respectively. Without exceeding usual
colonoscopy demand, up to 60% of excess CRC-related deaths can be prevented
by increasing the FIT threshold for 12 or 24 months. Large increases in FIT
threshold could lead to additional deaths rather than preventing them. Conclusions Clearing the screening backlog in 24 months could avert most excess
CRC-related deaths due to a 3-month disruption but would require a small
increase in colonoscopy demand. Increasing the FIT threshold slightly over
24 months could ease the pressure on colonoscopy resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francine van Wifferen
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lucie de Jonge
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Joachim Worthington
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture With Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Marjolein J.E. Greuter
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture With Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Claude Nadeau
- Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | | | - Eleonora Feletto
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture With Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
| | | | - Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture With Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, Australia
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Veerle M.H. Coupé
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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22
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de Klaver W, Wisse PHA, van Wifferen F, Bosch LJW, Jimenez CR, van der Hulst RWM, Fijneman RJA, Kuipers EJ, Greuter MJE, Carvalho B, Spaander MCW, Dekker E, Coupé VMH, de Wit M, Meijer GA. Clinical Validation of a Multitarget Fecal Immunochemical Test for Colorectal Cancer Screening : A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Study. Ann Intern Med 2021; 174:1224-1231. [PMID: 34280333 DOI: 10.7326/m20-8270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/09/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet it leaves room for improvement. OBJECTIVE To develop a multitarget FIT (mtFIT) with better diagnostic performance than FIT. DESIGN Diagnostic test accuracy study. SETTING Colonoscopy-controlled series. PARTICIPANTS Persons (n = 1284) from a screening (n = 1038) and referral (n = 246) population were classified by their most advanced lesion (CRC [n = 47], advanced adenoma [n = 135], advanced serrated polyp [n = 30], nonadvanced adenoma [n = 250], and nonadvanced serrated polyp [n = 53]), along with control participants (n = 769). MEASUREMENTS Antibody-based assays were developed and applied to leftover FIT material. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied to biomarker concentrations to identify the optimal combination for detecting advanced neoplasia. Performance of this combination, the mtFIT, was cross-validated using a leave-one-out approach and compared with FIT at equal specificity. RESULTS The CART analysis showed a combination of hemoglobin, calprotectin, and serpin family F member 2-the mtFIT-to have a cross-validated sensitivity for advanced neoplasia of 42.9% (95% CI, 36.2% to 49.9%) versus 37.3% (CI, 30.7% to 44.2%) for FIT (P = 0.025), with equal specificity of 96.6%. In particular, cross-validated sensitivity for advanced adenomas increased from 28.1% (CI, 20.8% to 36.5%) to 37.8% (CI, 29.6% to 46.5%) (P = 0.006). On the basis of these results, early health technology assessment indicated that mtFIT-based screening could be cost-effective compared with FIT. LIMITATION Study population is enriched with persons from a referral population. CONCLUSION Compared with FIT, the mtFIT showed better diagnostic accuracy in detecting advanced neoplasia because of an increased detection of advanced adenomas. Moreover, early health technology assessment indicated that these results provide a sound basis to pursue further development of mtFIT as a future test for population-based CRC screening. A prospective screening trial is in preparation. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Stand Up to Cancer/Dutch Cancer Society, Dutch Digestive Foundation, and HealthHolland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Willemijn de Klaver
- Netherlands Cancer Institute and Amsterdam University Medical Centers, location Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (W.d.K.)
| | - Pieter H A Wisse
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, and Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (P.H.W.)
| | - Francine van Wifferen
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, location VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (F.V., C.R.J., M.J.G., V.M.H.C.)
| | - Linda J W Bosch
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (L.J.B., R.J.F., B.C., M.d.W., G.A.M.)
| | - Connie R Jimenez
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, location VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (F.V., C.R.J., M.J.G., V.M.H.C.)
| | | | - Remond J A Fijneman
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (L.J.B., R.J.F., B.C., M.d.W., G.A.M.)
| | - Ernst J Kuipers
- Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (E.J.K., M.C.S.)
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, location VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (F.V., C.R.J., M.J.G., V.M.H.C.)
| | - Beatriz Carvalho
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (L.J.B., R.J.F., B.C., M.d.W., G.A.M.)
| | - Manon C W Spaander
- Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (E.J.K., M.C.S.)
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, location Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (E.D.)
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, location VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (F.V., C.R.J., M.J.G., V.M.H.C.)
| | - Meike de Wit
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (L.J.B., R.J.F., B.C., M.d.W., G.A.M.)
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (L.J.B., R.J.F., B.C., M.d.W., G.A.M.)
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23
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de Jonge L, Worthington J, van Wifferen F, Iragorri N, Peterse EFP, Lew JB, Greuter MJE, Smith HA, Feletto E, Yong JHE, Canfell K, Coupé VMH, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, COVID-19 and Cancer Global Modelling Consortium working group 2. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands: a comparative modelling study. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2021; 6:304-314. [PMID: 33548185 PMCID: PMC9767453 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(21)00003-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2020] [Revised: 12/17/2020] [Accepted: 12/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in three countries using microsimulation modelling. METHODS In this modelling study, we used four country-specific colorectal cancer microsimulation models-Policy1-Bowel (Australia), OncoSim (Canada), and ASCCA and MISCAN-Colon (the Netherlands)-to estimate the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands annually for the period 2020-24 and cumulatively for the period 2020-50. Modelled scenarios varied by duration of disruption (3, 6, and 12 months), decreases in screening participation after the period of disruption (0%, 25%, or 50% reduction), and catch-up screening strategies (within 6 months after the disruption period or all screening delayed by 6 months). FINDINGS Without catch-up screening, our analysis predicted that colorectal cancer deaths among individuals aged 50 years and older, a 3-month disruption would result in 414-902 additional new colorectal cancer diagnoses (relative increase 0·1-0·2%) and 324-440 additional deaths (relative increase 0·2-0·3%) in the Netherlands, 1672 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 979 additional deaths (relative increase 0·5%) in Australia, and 1671 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2%) and 799 additional deaths (relative increase 0·3%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 6-month disruption would result in 803-1803 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2-0·4%) and 678-881 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4-0·6%) in the Netherlands, 3552 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 1961 additional deaths (relative increase 1·0%) in Australia, and 2844 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 1319 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 12-month disruption would result in 1619-3615 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·4-0·9%) and 1360-1762 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8-1·2%) in the Netherlands, 7140 additional diagnoses (relative increase 1·2%) and 3968 additional deaths (relative increase 2·0%) in Australia, and 5212 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 2366 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. Providing immediate catch-up screening could minimise the impact of the disruption, restricting the relative increase in colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 to less than 0·1% in all countries. A post-disruption decrease in participation could increase colorectal cancer incidence by 0·2-0·9% and deaths by 0·6-1·6% between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. INTERPRETATION Although the projected effect of short-term disruption to colorectal cancer screening is modest, such disruption will have a marked impact on colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 attributable to missed screening. Thus, it is crucial that, if disrupted, screening programmes ensure participation rates return to previously observed rates and provide catch-up screening wherever possible, since this could mitigate the impact on colorectal cancer deaths. FUNDING Cancer Council New South Wales, Health Canada, and Dutch National Institute for Public Health and Environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucie de Jonge
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands,Correspondence to: Ms Lucie de Jonge, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, 3000 CA Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Joachim Worthington
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia,School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Francine van Wifferen
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Decision Modelling Center, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Nicolas Iragorri
- Canadian Partnership against Cancer, Toronto, ON, Canada,Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Elisabeth F P Peterse
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia,School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Decision Modelling Center, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Heather A Smith
- Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Eleonora Feletto
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia,School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Jean H E Yong
- Canadian Partnership against Cancer, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia,School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia,University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Decision Modelling Center, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Koffijberg H, Degeling K, IJzerman MJ, Coupé VMH, Greuter MJE. Using Metamodeling to Identify the Optimal Strategy for Colorectal Cancer Screening. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2021; 24:206-215. [PMID: 33518027 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2020.08.2099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2019] [Revised: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 08/18/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Metamodeling can address computational challenges within decision-analytic modeling studies evaluating many strategies. This article illustrates the value of metamodeling for evaluating colorectal cancer screening strategies while accounting for colonoscopy capacity constraints. METHODS In a traditional approach, the best screening strategy was identified from a limited subset of strategies evaluated with the validated Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model. In a metamodeling approach, metamodels were fitted to this limited subset to evaluate all potentially plausible strategies and determine the best overall screening strategy. Approaches were compared based on the best screening strategy in life-years gained compared with no screening. Metamodel runtime and accuracy was assessed. RESULTS The metamodeling approach evaluated >40 000 strategies in <1 minute with high accuracy after 1 adaptive sampling step (mean absolute error: 0.0002 life-years) using 300 samples in total (generation time: 8 days). Findings indicated that health outcomes could be improved without requiring additional colonoscopy capacity. Obtaining similar insights using the traditional approach could require at least 1000 samples (generation time: 28 days). Suggested benefits from screening at ages <40 years require adequate validation of the underlying Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model before making policy recommendations. CONCLUSIONS Metamodeling allows rapid assessment of a vast set of strategies, which may lead to identification of more favorable strategies compared to a traditional approach. Nevertheless, metamodel validation and identifying extrapolation beyond the support of the original decision-analytic model are critical to the interpretation of results. The screening strategies identified with metamodeling support ongoing discussions on decreasing the starting age of colorectal cancer screening.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hendrik Koffijberg
- Health Technology and Services Research Department, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
| | - Koen Degeling
- Health Technology and Services Research Department, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten J IJzerman
- Health Technology and Services Research Department, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; Centre for Cancer Research and Centre for Health Policy, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Cancer Research, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Decision Modeling Center, Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Lew JB, Greuter MJE, Caruana M, He E, Worthington J, St John DJ, Macrae FA, Feletto E, Coupé VMH, Canfell K. Validation of Microsimulation Models against Alternative Model Predictions and Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Outcomes of Randomized Controlled Trials. Med Decis Making 2020; 40:815-829. [PMID: 32845232 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x20944869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Background. This study aimed to assess the validity of 2 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer (CRC), Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA. Methods. The model-estimated CRC risk in population subgroups with different health statuses, "dwell time" (time from incident precancerous polyp to symptomatically detected CRC), and reduction in symptomatically detected CRC incidence after a one-time complete removal of polyps and/or undetected CRC were compared with published findings from 3 well-established models (MISCAN, CRC-SPIN, and SimCRC). Furthermore, 6 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that provided screening using a guaiac fecal occult blood test (Funen trial, Burgundy trial, and Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MCCCS]) or flexible sigmoidoscopy (NORCCAP, SCORE, and UKFSST) with long-term follow-up were simulated. Model-estimated long-term relative reductions of CRC incidence (RRinc) and mortality (RRmort) were compared with the RCTs' findings. Results. The Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA estimates showed more similarities to CRC-SPIN and SimCRC. For example, overall dwell times estimated by Policy1-Bowel (24.0 years) and ASCCA (25.3) were comparable to CRC-SPIN (25.8) and SimCRC (25.2) but higher than MISCAN (10.6). In addition, ∼86% of Policy1-Bowel's and ∼74% of ASCCA's estimated RRinc and RRmort were consistent with the RCTs' long-term follow-up findings. For example, at 17 to 18 years of follow-up, the MCCCS reported RRmort of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.62-0.97) for the annual and biennial screening arm, respectively, and the UKFSST reported RRmort of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62-0.79) for CRC at all sites and 0.54 (95% CI, 0.46-0.65) for distal CRC. The corresponding model estimates were 0.65, 0.74, 0.81, and 0.61, respectively, for Policy1-Bowel and 0.65, 0.70, 0.75, and 0.58, respectively, for ASCCA. Conclusion. Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA's estimates are largely consistent with the data included for comparisons, which indicates good model validity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie-Bin Lew
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Michael Caruana
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Emily He
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - D James St John
- Department of Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Prevention Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Finlay A Macrae
- Department of Colorectal Medicine and Genetics, and Department of Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Eleonora Feletto
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia
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Greuter MJ, Carvalho B, Wit MD, Dekker E, Spaander MC, Meijer GA, Engeland MV, Coupé VM. Can a biomarker triage test reduce colonoscopy burden in fecal immunochemical test screening? J Comp Eff Res 2020; 9:563-571. [PMID: 32462913 DOI: 10.2217/cer-2019-0130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim: To assess the potential of biomarker triage testing (BM-TT) in the Dutch colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. Materials & methods: Using the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model, we simulated fecal immunochemical test (FIT)47-screening and various FIT plus BM-TT screening scenarios in which only individuals with both a positive FIT and BM-TT are referred to colonoscopy. Results: Adding a low polyp sensitivity BM-TT to FIT-screening reduced colonoscopy burden (89-100%) while increasing CRC mortality (27-41%) compared with FIT47-screening only. The FIT plus high polyp sensitivity BM-TT scenarios also decreased colonoscopy burden (71-89%) while hardly affecting CRC mortality (FIT47 0-4% increase, FIT15 2-7% decrease). Conclusion: Adding a BM-TT to FIT-screening considerably reduces colonoscopy burden, but could also decrease screening effectiveness. Combining FIT15 with a high polyp sensitivity BM-TT seems most promising.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marjolein Je Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Decision Modeling Center, Amsterdam UMC - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Beatriz Carvalho
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Meike de Wit
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology, Amsterdam UMC - Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Manon Cw Spaander
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Manon van Engeland
- Department of Pathology, GROW - School for Oncology & Developmental Biology, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle Mh Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Decision Modeling Center, Amsterdam UMC - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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27
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Worthington J, Lew JB, Feletto E, Holden CA, Worthley DL, Miller C, Canfell K. Improving Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program outcomes through increased participation and cost-effective investment. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0227899. [PMID: 32012174 PMCID: PMC6996821 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) provides biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) screening for people aged 50-74 years. Previous work has quantified the number of colorectal cancer (CRC) deaths prevented by the NBCSP and has shown that it is cost-effective. With a 40% screening participation rate, the NBCSP is currently underutilised and could be improved by increasing program participation, but the maximum appropriate level of spending on effective interventions to increase adherence has not yet been quantified. OBJECTIVES To estimate (i) reductions in CRC cases and deaths for 2020-2040 attributable to, and (ii) the threshold for cost-effective investment (TCEI) in, effective future interventions to improve participation in the NBCSP. METHODS A comprehensive microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate CRC natural history and screening in Australia, considering currently reported NBCSP adherence rates, i.e. iFOBT participation (∼40%) and diagnostic colonoscopy assessment rates (∼70%). Australian residents aged 40-74 were modelled. We evaluated three scenarios: (1) diagnostic colonoscopy assessment increasing to 90%; (2) iFOBT screening participation increasing to 60% by 2020, 70% by 2030 with diagnostic assessment rates of 90%; and (3) iFOBT screening increasing to 90% by 2020 with diagnostic assessment rates of 90%. In each scenario, we estimated CRC incidence and mortality, colonoscopies, costs, and TCEI given indicative willingness-to-pay thresholds of AUD$10,000-$30,000/LYS. RESULTS By 2040, age-standardised CRC incidence and mortality rates could be reduced from 46.2 and 13.5 per 100,000 persons, respectively, if current participation rates continued, to (1) 44.0 and 12.7, (2) 36.8 and 8.8, and (3) 31.9 and 6.5. In Scenario 2, 23,000 lives would be saved from 2020-2040 vs current participation rates. The estimated scenario-specific TCEI (Australian dollars or AUD$/year) to invest in interventions to increase participation, given a conservative willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD$10,000/LYS, was (1) AUD$14.9M, (2) AUD$72.0M, and (3) AUD$76.5M. CONCLUSION Significant investment in evidence-based interventions could be used to improve NBCSP adherence and help realise the program's potential. Such interventions might include mass media campaigns to increase program participation, educational or awareness interventions for practitioners, and/or interventions resulting in improvements in referral pathways. Any set of interventions which achieves at least 70% iFOBT screening participation and a 90% diagnostic assessment rate while costing under AUD$72 million annually would be highly cost-effective (<AUD$10,000/LYS) and save 23,000 additional lives from 2020-2040.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joachim Worthington
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, Australia
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Eleonora Feletto
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, Australia
| | - Carol A. Holden
- South Australian Health & Medical Research Institute, North Terrace, South Australia, Australia
| | - Daniel L. Worthley
- South Australian Health & Medical Research Institute, North Terrace, South Australia, Australia
| | - Caroline Miller
- South Australian Health & Medical Research Institute, North Terrace, South Australia, Australia
- University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, Australia
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Jahn B, Todorovic J, Bundo M, Sroczynski G, Conrads-Frank A, Rochau U, Endel G, Wilbacher I, Malbaski N, Popper N, Chhatwal J, Greenberg D, Mauskopf J, Siebert U. Budget Impact Analysis of Cancer Screening: A Methodological Review. APPLIED HEALTH ECONOMICS AND HEALTH POLICY 2019; 17:493-511. [PMID: 31016686 DOI: 10.1007/s40258-019-00475-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Budget impact analyses (BIAs) describe changes in intervention- and disease-related costs of new technologies. Evidence on the quality of BIAs for cancer screening is lacking. OBJECTIVES We systematically reviewed the literature and methods to assess how closely BIA guidelines are followed when BIAs are performed for cancer-screening programs. DATA SOURCES Systematic searches were conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, CRD (Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York), and CEA registry of the Tufts Medical Center. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Eligible studies were BIAs evaluating cancer-screening programs published in English, 2010-2018. SYNTHESIS METHODS Standardized evidence tables were generated to extract and compare study characteristics outlined by the ISPOR BIA Task Force. RESULTS Nineteen studies were identified evaluating screening for breast (5), colorectal (6), cervical (3), lung (1), prostate (3), and skin (1) cancers. Model designs included decision-analytic models (13) and simple cost calculators (6). From all studies, only 53% reported costs for a minimum of 3 years, 58% compared to a mix of screening options, 42% reported model validation, and 37% reported uncertainty analysis for participation rates. The quality of studies appeared to be independent of cancer site. LIMITATIONS "Gray" literature was not searched, misinterpretation is possible due to limited information in publications, and focus was on international methodological guidelines rather than regional guidelines. CONCLUSIONS Our review highlights considerable variability in the extent to which BIAs evaluating cancer-screening programs followed recommended guidelines. The annual budget impact at least over the next 3-5 years should be estimated. Validation and uncertainty analysis should always be conducted. Continued dissemination efforts of existing best-practice guidelines are necessary to ensure high-quality analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beate Jahn
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
| | - Jovan Todorovic
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
| | - Marvin Bundo
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
| | - Gaby Sroczynski
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
| | - Annette Conrads-Frank
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
| | - Ursula Rochau
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria
| | - Gottfried Endel
- Evidence-based Health Care, Main Association of Austrian Social Insurance Institutions, Haidingergasse 1, 1030, Vienna, Austria
| | - Ingrid Wilbacher
- Evidence-based Health Care, Main Association of Austrian Social Insurance Institutions, Haidingergasse 1, 1030, Vienna, Austria
| | - Nikoletta Malbaski
- Evidence-based Health Care, Main Association of Austrian Social Insurance Institutions, Haidingergasse 1, 1030, Vienna, Austria
| | - Niki Popper
- DWH Simulation Services, DEXHELPP, Neustiftgasse 57-59, 1070, Vienna, Austria
- TU Wien, Information and Software Engineering Group (ifs - E194-01), Favoritenstraße 9-11/194-01, 1040, Vienna, Austria
| | - Jagpreet Chhatwal
- Institute for Technology Assessment and Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 101 Merrimac St, Boston, MA, 02114, USA
| | - Dan Greenberg
- Department of Health Systems Management, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er-Sheva, Israel
| | - Josephine Mauskopf
- RTI Health Solutions, RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC, 27709, USA
| | - Uwe Siebert
- Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Eduard-Wallnoefer-Zentrum 1, 6060, Hall in Tyrol, Austria.
- Institute for Technology Assessment and Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 101 Merrimac St, Boston, MA, 02114, USA.
- Division of Health Technology Assessment, ONCOTYROL-Center for Personalized Cancer Medicine, Karl-Kapferer-Straße 5, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria.
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 718 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
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Lew JB, St John DJB, Macrae FA, Emery JD, Ee HC, Jenkins MA, He E, Grogan P, Caruana M, Greuter MJE, Coupé VMH, Canfell K. Benefits, Harms, and Cost-Effectiveness of Potential Age Extensions to the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2018; 27:1450-1461. [PMID: 30190276 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-18-0128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Revised: 04/24/2018] [Accepted: 08/22/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is rolling out 2-yearly immunochemical fecal occult blood test screening in people aged 50 to 74 years. This study aimed to evaluate the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending the NBCSP to younger and/or older ages. METHODS A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate the fully rolled-out NBCSP and alternative strategies assuming screening starts at 40 or 45 years and/or ceases at 79 or 84 years given three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence (100%), (ii) high adherence (60%), and (ii) low adherence (40%, as currently achieved). RESULTS The current NBCSP will reduce colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) by 23% to 51% (36% to 74%) compared with no screening (range reflects participation); extending screening to younger or older ages would result in additional reductions of 2 to 6 (2 to 9) or 1 to 3 (3 to 7) percentage points, respectively. With an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS), only screening from 50 to 74 years [incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER): A$2,984-5,981/LYS) or from 45 to 74 years (ICER: A$17,053-29,512/LYS) remained cost-effective in all participation scenarios. The number-needed-to-colonoscope to prevent a death over the lifetime of a cohort in the current NBCSP is 35 to 49. Starting screening at 45 years would increase colonoscopy demand for program-related colonoscopies by 3% to 14% and be associated with 55 to 170 additional colonoscopies per additional death prevented. CONCLUSIONS Starting screening at 45 years could be cost-effective, but it would increase colonoscopy demand and would be associated with a less favorable incremental benefits-to-harms trade-off than screening from 50 to 74 years. IMPACT The study underpins recently updated Australian colorectal cancer management guidelines that recommend that the NBCSP continues to offer bowel screening from 50 to 74 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie-Bin Lew
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. .,Prince of Wales Clinical School, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - D James B St John
- Prevention Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Medicine, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Finlay A Macrae
- Department of Medicine, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Colorectal Medicine and Genetics, and Department of Medicine, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jon D Emery
- Department of General Practice and Centre for Cancer Research, University of Melbourne, Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Australia.,Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kindgom
| | - Hooi C Ee
- Department of Gastroenterology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Mark A Jenkins
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emily He
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Paul Grogan
- Cancer Council Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Michael Caruana
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, UNSW, Sydney, Australia.,The University of Sydney, School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, New South Wales, Australia
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Silva-Illanes N, Espinoza M. Critical Analysis of Markov Models Used for the Economic Evaluation of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2018; 21:858-873. [PMID: 30005759 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2017.11.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2017] [Revised: 11/12/2017] [Accepted: 11/27/2017] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The economic evaluation of colorectal cancer screening is challenging because of the need to model the underlying unobservable natural history of the disease. OBJECTIVES To describe the available Markov models and to critically analyze their main structural assumptions. METHODS A systematic search was performed in eight relevant databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Econlit, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, Health Economic Evaluations Database, Health Technology Assessment database, Cost-Effective Analysis Registry, and European Network of Health Economics Evaluation Databases), identifying 34 models that met the inclusion criteria. A comparative analysis of model structure and parameterization was conducted using two checklists and guidelines for cost-effectiveness screening models. RESULTS Two modeling techniques were identified. One strategy used a Markov model to reproduce the natural history of the disease and an overlaying model that reproduced the screening process, whereas the other used a single model to represent a screening program. Most of the studies included only adenoma-carcinoma sequences, a few included de novo cancer, and none included the serrated pathway. Parameterization of adenoma dwell time, sojourn time, and surveillance differed between studies, and there was a lack of validation and statistical calibration against local epidemiological data. Most of the studies analyzed failed to perform an adequate literature review and synthesis of diagnostic accuracy properties of the screening tests modeled. CONCLUSIONS Several strategies to model colorectal cancer screening have been developed, but many challenges remain to adequately represent the natural history of the disease and the screening process. Structural uncertainty analysis could be a useful strategy for understanding the impact of the assumptions of different models on cost-effectiveness results.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Manuel Espinoza
- HTA Unit, Centre for Clinical Research UC, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Bronzwaer MES, Greuter MJE, Bleijenberg AGC, IJspeert JEG, Dekker E, Coupé VMH. Impact of differences in adenoma and proximal serrated polyp detection rate on the long-term effectiveness of FIT-based colorectal cancer screening. BMC Cancer 2018; 18:465. [PMID: 29695244 PMCID: PMC5918867 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-018-4375-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2017] [Accepted: 04/16/2018] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Both the adenoma detection rate (ADR) and proximal serrated polyp detection rate (PSPDR) vary among endoscopists. It is unclear how these variations influence colorectal cancer (CRC) screening effectiveness. We evaluated the effect of variation in these detection rates on the long-term impact of fecal immunochemical test (FIT) based screening. METHODS The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model was set up to simulate the Dutch national biennial FIT-based CRC screening program between 2014 and 2044. Adherence to FIT and colonoscopy was 73 and 92%. Besides a 'no screening scenario', several screening scenarios varying in ADR and PSPDR were evaluated. Using the available literature on colonoscopy miss rates led to a base-case ADR of 59% and PSPDR of 11%, which were varied with intervals of 3 and 2%. RESULTS Compared to no screening, FIT-screening in the base-case scenario reduced long-term mortality with 51.8%. At a fixed PSPDR of 11%, an increase in ADR from 44 to 62% would result in a 10.7% difference in mortality reduction. Using a fixed ADR of 59%, changing the PSPDR from 3 to 15% did not substantially influence long-term mortality (51.0 to 52.3%). CONCLUSIONS An increase in ADR gradually reduces CRC burden in a FIT-based screening program, whereas an increase in PSPDR only minimally influences long-term outcomes at a population-level. The limited effect of the PSPDR can be explained by the limited sensitivity of FIT for serrated polyps (SPs). Other triage modalities aiming to detect relevant SPs should be explored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maxime E. S. Bronzwaer
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marjolein J. E. Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arne G. C. Bleijenberg
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Joep E. G. IJspeert
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle M. H. Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Lew JB, St John DJB, Macrae FA, Emery JD, Ee HC, Jenkins MA, He E, Grogan P, Caruana M, Sarfati D, Greuter MJE, Coupé VMH, Canfell K. Evaluation of the benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of potential alternatives to iFOBT testing for colorectal cancer screening in Australia. Int J Cancer 2018; 143:269-282. [PMID: 29441568 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.31314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2017] [Revised: 12/03/2017] [Accepted: 01/19/2018] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll-out 2-yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10-yearly, or once-off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51-67(74-80)% in comparison with no screening; 2-yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2-yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost-effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS-A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled-out NBCSP is highly cost-effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie-Bin Lew
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - D James B St John
- Prevention Division, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Medicine, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Finlay A Macrae
- Department of Colorectal Medicine and Genetics, and Department of Medicine, The Royal Melbourne Hospital and University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jon D Emery
- Department of General Practice and Centre for Cancer Research, University of Melbourne, Victorian Comprehensive Cancer Centre, Melbourne, Australia.,Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Primary Care Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Hooi C Ee
- Department of Gastroenterology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Mark A Jenkins
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emily He
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Paul Grogan
- Cancer Council Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Michael Caruana
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Diana Sarfati
- Cancer and Chronic Conditions (C3) Research Group, University of Otago, New Zealand
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia.,School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Vleugels JLA, Greuter MJE, Hazewinkel Y, Coupé VMH, Dekker E. Implementation of an optical diagnosis strategy saves costs and does not impair clinical outcomes of a fecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening program. Endosc Int Open 2017; 5:E1197-E1207. [PMID: 29202003 PMCID: PMC5703351 DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-113565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2017] [Accepted: 05/22/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS In an optical diagnosis strategy, diminutive polyps that are endoscopically characterized with high confidence are removed without histopathological analysis and distal hyperplastic polyps are left in situ. We evaluated the effectiveness and costs of optical diagnosis. METHODS Using the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model, we simulated biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening in individuals aged 55 - 75 years. In this program, we compared an optical diagnosis strategy with current histopathology assessment of all diminutive polyps. Base-case assumptions included 76 % high-confidence predictions and sensitivities of 88 %, 91 %, and 88 % for endoscopically characterizing adenomas, sessile serrated polyps, and hyperplastic polyps, respectively. Outcomes were colorectal cancer burden, number of colonoscopies, life-years, and costs. RESULTS Both the histopathology strategy and the optical diagnosis strategy resulted in 21 life-days gained per simulated individual compared with no screening. For optical diagnosis, €6 per individual was saved compared with the current histopathology strategy. These cost savings were related to a 31 % reduction in colonoscopies in which histopathology was needed for diminutive polyps. Projecting these results onto the Netherlands (17 million inhabitants), assuming a fully implemented FIT-based screening program, resulted in an annual undiscounted cost saving of € 1.7 - 2.2 million for optical diagnosis. CONCLUSION Implementation of optical diagnosis in a FIT-based screening program saves costs without decreasing program effectiveness when compared with current histopathology analysis of all diminutive polyps. Further work is required to evaluate how endoscopists participating in a screening program should be trained, audited, and monitored to achieve adequate competence in optical diagnosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jasper L. A. Vleugels
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Marjolein J. E. Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Yark Hazewinkel
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Veerle M. H. Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,Corresponding author Evelien Dekker, MD PhD Department of Gastroenterology and HepatologyAcademic Medical CentreMeibergdreef 9 1105 AZAmsterdamThe Netherlands+31-20-6917033
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Lew JB, St John DJB, Xu XM, Greuter MJE, Caruana M, Cenin DR, He E, Saville M, Grogan P, Coupé VMH, Canfell K. Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study. LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 2:e331-e340. [PMID: 29253458 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(17)30105-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 115] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2017] [Revised: 05/23/2017] [Accepted: 05/23/2017] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluate the incremental effect of improved screening participation under different scenarios. METHODS In this modelling study, a microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, which simulates the development of colorectal cancer via both the conventional adenoma-carcinoma and serrated pathways was used to simulate the NBCSP in 2006-40, taking into account the gradual rollout of NBCSP in 2006-20. The base-case scenario assumed 40% screening participation (currently observed behaviour) and two alternative scenarios assuming 50% and 60% participation by 2020 were modelled. Aggregate year-by-year screening, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance-related costs, resource utilisation (number of screening tests and colonoscopies), and health outcomes (incident colorectal cancer cases and colorectal cancer deaths) were estimated, as was the cost-effectiveness of the NBCSP. FINDINGS With current levels of participation (40%), the NBCSP is expected to prevent 92 200 cancer cases and 59 000 deaths over the period 2015-40; an additional 24 300 and 37 300 cases and 16 800 and 24 800 deaths would be prevented if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, an estimated 101 000 programme-related colonoscopies will be done, associated with about 270 adverse events; an additional 32 500 and 49 800 colonoscopies and 88 and 134 adverse events would occur if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. The overall number needed to screen (NNS) is 647-788 per death prevented, with 52-59 colonoscopies per death prevented. The programme is cost-effective due to the cancer treatment costs averted (cost-effectiveness ratio compared with no screening at current participation, AUS$3014 [95% uncertainty interval 1807-5583] per life-year saved) in the cost-effectiveness analysis. In the budget impact analysis, reduced annual expenditure on colorectal cancer control is expected by 2030, with expenditure reduced by a cumulative AUS$1·7 billion, AUS$2·0 billion, and AUS$2·1 billion (2015 prices) between 2030 and 2040, at participation rates of 40%, 50%, and 60%, respectively. INTERPRETATION The NBCSP has potential to save 83 800 lives over the period 2015-40 if coverage rates can be increased to 60%. By contrast, the associated harms, although an important consideration, are at a smaller magnitude at the population level. The programme is highly cost-effective and within a decade of full roll-out, there will be reduced annual health systems expenditure on colorectal cancer control due to the impact of screening. FUNDING Australia Postgraduate Award PhD Scholarship, Translational Cancer Research Network Top-up scholarship (supported by Cancer Institute NSW) and Cancer Council NSW.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie-Bin Lew
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, NSW, Australia; Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, NSW, Australia.
| | - D James B St John
- Prevention Division, Cancer Council Victoria, VIC, Australia; Department of Medicine, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, The University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Xiang-Ming Xu
- Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, NSW, Australia
| | - Marjolein J E Greuter
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU Medical Center, Boelelaan, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Michael Caruana
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, NSW, Australia; Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, NSW, Australia
| | - Dayna R Cenin
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, WA, Australia; Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Emily He
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, NSW, Australia; Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, NSW, Australia
| | - Marion Saville
- Victorian Cytology Service Ltd, Carlton South, VIC, Australia; Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Paul Grogan
- Advocacy, Cancer Council Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU Medical Center, Boelelaan, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, NSW, Australia; Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of NSW, NSW, Australia; School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Estimating the Effect of Targeted Screening Strategies: An Application to Colonoscopy and Colorectal Cancer. Epidemiology 2017; 28:470-478. [PMID: 28368944 PMCID: PMC5453827 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000000668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Screening behavior depends on previous screening history and family members’ behaviors, which can act as both confounders and intermediate variables on a causal pathway from screening to disease risk. Conventional analyses that adjust for these variables can lead to incorrect inferences about the causal effect of screening if high-risk individuals are more likely to be screened. Analyzing the data in a manner that treats screening as randomized conditional on covariates allows causal parameters to be estimated; inverse probability weighting based on propensity of exposure scores is one such method considered here. I simulated family data under plausible models for the underlying disease process and for screening behavior to assess the performance of alternative methods of analysis and whether a targeted screening approach based on individuals’ risk factors would lead to a greater reduction in cancer incidence in the population than a uniform screening policy. Simulation results indicate that there can be a substantial underestimation of the effect of screening on subsequent cancer risk when using conventional analysis approaches, which is avoided by using inverse probability weighting. A large case–control study of colonoscopy and colorectal cancer from Germany shows a strong protective effect of screening, but inverse probability weighting makes this effect even stronger. Targeted screening approaches based on either fixed risk factors or family history yield somewhat greater reductions in cancer incidence with fewer screens needed to prevent one cancer than population-wide approaches, but the differences may not be large enough to justify the additional effort required. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B207.
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Greuter MJE, Berkhof J, Canfell K, Lew JB, Dekker E, Coupé VMH. Resilience of a FIT screening programme against screening fatigue: a modelling study. BMC Public Health 2016; 16:1009. [PMID: 27658454 PMCID: PMC5034628 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3667-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2016] [Accepted: 06/20/2016] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Repeated participation is important in faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, a large number of screening invitations over time may lead to screening fatigue and consequently, decreased participation rates. We evaluated the impact of screening fatigue on overall screening programme effectiveness. Methods Using the ASCCA model, we simulated the Dutch CRC screening programme consisting of biennial FIT screening in individuals aged 55–75. We studied the resilience of the programme against heterogeneity in screening attendance and decrease in participation rate due to screening fatigue. Outcomes were reductions in CRC incidence and mortality compared to no screening. Results Assuming a homogenous 63 % participation, i.e., each round each individual was equally likely to attend screening, 30 years of screening reduced CRC incidence and mortality by 39 and 53 %, respectively, compared to no screening. When assuming clustered participation, i.e., three subgroups of individuals with a high (95 %), moderate (65 %) and low (5 %) participation rate, screening was less effective; reductions were 33 % for CRC incidence and 43 % for CRC mortality. Screening fatigue considerably reduced screening effectiveness; if individuals refrained from screening after three negative screens, model-predicted incidence reductions decreased to 25 and 18 % under homogenous and clustered participation, respectively. Figures were 34 and 25 % for mortality reduction. Conclusions Screening will substantially decrease CRC incidence and mortality. However, screening effectiveness can be seriously compromised if screening fatigue occurs. This warrants careful monitoring of individual screening behaviour and consideration of targeted invitation systems in individuals who have (repeatedly) missed screening rounds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, PO Box 7057, MF F-wing, 1007 MB, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Johannes Berkhof
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, PO Box 7057, MF F-wing, 1007 MB, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Karen Canfell
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,School of Public Health, Sydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Prince of Wales Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, PO Box 7057, MF F-wing, 1007 MB, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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Abstract
Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is becoming a major threat to people’s life in China. Screening methods adopted by many other countries as effective counter-cancer methods have not been explicitly explored for people there. Thus, we present a Markov model with detailed precancerous adenoma states and then evaluate various screening strategies in this paper. Different from current researches, our model considers the population’s heterogeneous risk of developing adenomas and observation-based screening strategies. Furthermore, we also give a new cost-effectiveness metric. After calibrating, the model is simulated using the Monte Carlo method. Numerical results show that there are threshold values of compliance rates below which strategy with every ten-year colonoscopy becomes the most cost-effective method; otherwise, an observation-based screening strategy is the most cost-effective. We also find that strategy with single colonoscopy for adenoma-free individuals and every three-year colonoscopy for those with adenoma is recommended when the observation-based strategy is not considered. Our findings give an explicit and complete instruction in CRC screening protocol in average-risk Chinese.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li-Peng Song
- Department of Computer Science and Technology, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
- * E-mail: ;
| | - Hao-Yu Wang
- Department of Computer Science and Technology, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
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van der Meijde E, van den Eertwegh AJM, Linn SC, Meijer GA, Fijneman RJA, Coupé VMH. The Melanoma MAICare Framework: A Microsimulation Model for the Assessment of Individualized Cancer Care. Cancer Inform 2016; 15:115-27. [PMID: 27346945 PMCID: PMC4912231 DOI: 10.4137/cin.s38122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2015] [Revised: 03/31/2016] [Accepted: 04/03/2016] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Recently, new but expensive treatments have become available for metastatic melanoma. These improve survival, but in view of the limited funds available, cost-effectiveness needs to be evaluated. Most cancer cost-effectiveness models are based on the observed clinical events such as recurrence- free and overall survival. Times at which events are recorded depend not only on the effectiveness of treatment but also on the timing of examinations and the types of tests performed. Our objective was to construct a microsimulation model framework that describes the melanoma disease process using a description of underlying tumor growth as well as its interaction with diagnostics, treatments, and surveillance. The framework should allow for exploration of the impact of simultaneously altering curative treatment approaches in different phases of the disease as well as altering diagnostics. The developed framework consists of two components, namely, the disease model and the clinical management module. The disease model consists of a tumor level, describing growth and metastasis of the tumor, and a patient level, describing clinically observed states, such as recurrence and death. The clinical management module consists of the care patients receive. This module interacts with the disease process, influencing the rate of transition between tumor growth states at the tumor level and the rate of detecting a recurrence at the patient level. We describe the framework as the required input and the model output. Furthermore, we illustrate model calibration using registry data and data from the literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth van der Meijde
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - Sabine C Linn
- Division of Molecular Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Professor, Division of Diagnostic Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Remond J A Fijneman
- Division of Diagnostic Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Greuter MJE, Berkhof J, Fijneman RJA, Demirel E, Lew JB, Meijer GA, Stoker J, Coupé VMH. The potential of imaging techniques as a screening tool for colorectal cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Br J Radiol 2016; 89:20150910. [PMID: 27194458 DOI: 10.1259/bjr.20150910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Imaging may be promising for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, since it has test characteristics comparable with colonoscopy but is less invasive. We aimed to assess the potential of CT colonography (CTC) and MR colonography (MRC) in terms of (cost-effectiveness) using the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model. METHODS We compared several CTC and MRC strategies with 5- or 10-yearly screening intervals with no screening, 10-yearly colonoscopy screening and biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening. We assumed trial-based participation rates in the base-case analyses and varied the rates in sensitivity analyses. Incremental lifetime costs and health effects were estimated from a healthcare perspective. RESULTS The health gain of CTC and MRC was similar and ranged from 0.031 to 0.048 life-year gained compared with no screening, for 2-5 screening rounds. Lifetime costs per person for MRC strategies were €60-110 higher than those for CTC strategies with an equal number of screening rounds. All imaging-based strategies were cost-effective compared with no screening. FIT screening was the dominant screening strategy, leading to most LYG and highest cost-savings. Compared with three rounds of colonoscopy screening, CTC with five rounds was found to be cost-effective in an incremental analysis of imaging strategies. Assumptions on screening participation have a major influence on the ordering of strategies in terms of costs and effects. CONCLUSION CTC and MRC have potential for CRC screening, compared with no screening and compared with three rounds of 10-yearly colonoscopy screening. When taking FIT screening as the reference, imaging is not cost-effective. Participation is an important driver of effectiveness and cost estimates. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE This is the first study to assess the cost-effectiveness of MRC screening for CRC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marjolein J E Greuter
- 1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Johannes Berkhof
- 1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Remond J A Fijneman
- 2 Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Erhan Demirel
- 1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- 3 Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, NSW, Australia
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- 2 Department of Pathology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jaap Stoker
- 4 Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- 1 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Greuter MJE, Demirel E, Lew JB, Berkhof J, Xu XM, Canfell K, Dekker E, Meijer GA, Coupé VMH. Long-Term Impact of the Dutch Colorectal Cancer Screening Program on Cancer Incidence and Mortality-Model-Based Exploration of the Serrated Pathway. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2015; 25:135-44. [PMID: 26598535 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-15-0592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2015] [Accepted: 10/28/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to predict the long-term colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand of the recently implemented Dutch colorectal cancer screening program. METHODS The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal Cancer model was set up to simulate the Dutch screening program consisting of biennial fecal immunochemical testing combined with the new Dutch surveillance guidelines, between 2014 and 2044. The impact of screening and surveillance was evaluated under three sets of natural history assumptions differing in the contribution of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer incidence. In sensitivity analyses, other assumptions concerning the serrated pathway were varied. Model-predicted outcomes were yearly colorectal cancer incidence, mortality, and colonoscopy demand per year. RESULTS Assuming an aging population, colorectal cancer incidence under 30 years of screening is predicted to decrease by 35% and 31% for a contribution of 0% and 30% of the serrated pathway to colorectal cancer, respectively. For colorectal cancer mortality, reductions are 47% and 45%. In 2044, 110,000 colonoscopies will be required annually assuming no contribution of the serrated pathway (27 per 1,000 individuals in the screening age range). Including the serrated pathway influences predicted screening effectiveness if serrated lesions are neither detected nor treated at colonoscopy, and/or if colorectal cancers arising from serrated lesions have substantially lower survival rates than those arising from adenomas. CONCLUSIONS The Dutch screening program will markedly decrease colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but considerable colonoscopy resources will be required. IMPACT Predictions of long-term screening effectiveness are preferably based on both pathways to colorectal cancer to transparently describe the impact of uncertainties regarding the serrated pathway on long-term predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marjolein J E Greuter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
| | - Erhan Demirel
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Jie-Bin Lew
- Lowy Cancer Research Centre, The University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia. Lowy Cancer Research Centre, Prince of Wales Clinical School, The University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Johannes Berkhof
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Xiang-Ming Xu
- Lowy Cancer Research Centre, The University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia. Lowy Cancer Research Centre, Prince of Wales Clinical School, The University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Karen Canfell
- Lowy Cancer Research Centre, The University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia. Lowy Cancer Research Centre, Prince of Wales Clinical School, The University of NSW, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Evelien Dekker
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Gerrit A Meijer
- Department of Pathology, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Veerle M H Coupé
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Liu YY, Geng YP, Fang F, Ma XX. Influence of peer support education on clinical effects of postoperative continued nursing care in rectal cancer patients after colostomy. Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2015; 23:3321-3325. [DOI: 10.11569/wcjd.v23.i20.3321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM: To evaluate the influence of peer support education on the clinical effects of postoperative continued nursing care in rectal cancer patients after colostomy.
METHODS: Ninety patients with rectal cancer after colostomy who were treated from October 2013 to January 2015 at our hospital were randomly divided into a research group and a control group, with 45 patients in each group. The control group received routine health education, and the research group additionally received peer support education for 1 mo on the basis of routine health education. The patient's health and quality of life, psychological status and related indicators were compared for the two groups.
RESULTS: Health promoting lifestyle scores were significantly improved after nursing intervention in both groups (P < 0.05), and the improvement was more significant in the research group (P < 0.05). After intervention, the Self-rating Anxiety Scale (SAS) and Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS) scores were significantly lower in the research group than in the control group (P < 0.05). After nursing intervention for 1 mo, self-management self-efficacy scores at discharge were significantly increased in both groups (P < 0.05), and the increase was more significant in the research group (P < 0.05).
CONCLUSION: Peer support education can significantly improve health promoting lifestyle score and self-management self-efficacy scores, and relieve anxiety, depression and negative emotions in rectal cancer after colostomy.
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