This study aimed to assess the significance of serum albumin levels within 24 h of patient admission in correlation with the incidence of outcomes and mortality in patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. A retrospective study was conducted over a 5-year period, from January 2018 to December 2023, at the Mohammed VI University Hospital in Oujda, Morocco. The study included 371 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Hypoalbuminemia (≤ 30 g/L) was observed in 124 patients (33.4% of cases), and these patients had a higher mean age compared to those with normal albumin levels (P = 0.003). Hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with persistent Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) (70.8% vs. 29.2%, P = 0.000), a higher BISAP score (66.7% vs. 33.3%, P = 0.000), and a higher CTSI score (51.7% vs. 48.3%, P = 0.000). Hypoalbuminemia was also associated with the presence of pleural effusion (P = 0.000). The mortality in the sample was 4.6%, and it was significantly associated with hypoalbuminemia (76.5%, P = 0.000). In conclusion, serum albumin levels within 24 h of patient admission appear to be a significant prognostic biomarker in acute pancreatitis, particularly in anticipating persistent organ failure and mortality.

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has high mortality. Early identification of high-risk factors that may progress to SAP and active intervention measures may improve the prognosis of SAP patients.

Clinical data within 24 h after admission were retrospectively analyzed to provide an evidence for early screening of high-risk factors in patients with SAP.

A review of clinical data of acute pancreatitis patients from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022, was conducted. We compared the clinical data of SAP and non-SAP patients, and a multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify the independent predictors of SAP. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of SAP was drawn for continuous numerical variables to calculate the optimal clinical cutoff value of each variable, and the predictive value of each variable was compared by the area under the ROC curve.

Based on the multivariate logistic regression analysis of Age (odds ratio (OR), 1.032;95% confident interval (CI),1.018-1.046, p < 0.001), body mass index (BMI) (OR, 1.181; 95% CI,1.083-1.288, p < 0.001), Non-HTGAP (nonhypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis) (OR, 2.098; 95% CI,1.276-3.45, p = 0.003), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR,1.072; 95% CI,1.034-1.111, p < 0.001), procalcitonin (PCT) (OR, 1.060; 95% CI, 1.027-1.095, p < 0.001), serum calcium (Ca) (OR,0.121; 95% CI, 0.050-0.292, p < 0.001), computed tomography severity index (CTSI) ≥4 (OR,12.942;95% CI,7.267-23.049, p < 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for SAP. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and optimal CUT-OFF values of continuous numerical variables for predicting SAP were Age (0.6079,51.5), BMI (0.6,23.25), WBC (0.6701,14.565), PCT (0.7086, 0.5175), Ca (0.7787,1.965), respectively.

Age, BMI, non-HTGAP, WBC, PCT, serum Ca and CTSI≥4 have good predictive value for SAP.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden-onset inflammatory disease of the pancreas. The severity of AP is classified into mild, moderate, and severe categories based on the presence and persistence of organ failure. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. It requires early recognition for appropriate timely management. Prognostic scores for predicting SAP incorporating many clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters have been developed in the past. However, all of these prognostic scores have low positive predictive value for SAP and some of these scores require >24 h for assessment. There is a need to develop biomarkers that can accurately identify patients at risk for SAP early in the course of the presentation. In this review, we aim to provide a summary of the most commonly utilized prognostic scores for AP and discuss future directions.

This study aimed to develop an interpretable random forest model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Clinical and laboratory data of 648 patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and randomly assigned to the training set and test set in a 3:1 ratio. Univariate analysis was used to select candidate predictors for the SAP. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed on the training sample. The prediction models were then applied to the test sample. The performance of the risk models was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and area under precision recall curve. We provide visualized interpretation by using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).

The LR model was developed to predict SAP as the following function: -1.10-0.13×albumin (g/L) + 0.016 × serum creatinine (μmol/L) + 0.14 × glucose (mmol/L) + 1.63 × pleural effusion (0/1)(No/Yes). The coefficients of this formula were utilized to build a nomogram. The RF model consists of 16 variables identified by univariate analysis. It was developed and validated by a tenfold cross-validation on the training sample. Variables importance analysis suggested that blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, albumin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and glucose were the most important seven predictors of SAP. The AUCs of RF model in tenfold cross-validation of the training set and the test set was 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both the area under precision recall curve and the diagnostic accuracy of the RF model were higher than that of both the LR model and the BISAP score. LIME plots were used to explain individualized prediction of the RF model.

An interpretable RF model exhibited the highest discriminatory performance in predicting SAP. Interpretation with LIME plots could be useful for individualized prediction in a clinical setting. A nomogram consisting of albumin, serum creatinine, glucose, and pleural effusion was useful for prediction of SAP.

Nonthyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS) is common in critical illness and is associated with poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to find the prevalence, charateristics, and prognosis of NTIS and its correlation with outcomes in AP patients.

A retrospective review of AP patients with a diagnosis of NTIS from Jan 2012 to September 2020 was performed. The serum thyroidal hormone (TH) disturbances, as well as the demographic characteristics and clinical outcomes of the study patients, were collected and analyzed.

Over the eight years, 183 included AP patients were diagnosed as NTIS, constituting an incidence of 64.7%. Patients with NTIS were admitted with worse condition based on the higher APACHE II score, SOFA score, Balthazar's CT score, CRP and lower albumin than euthyroid patients. Also, these patients had a longer ICU duration (3, 2-10 vs 2, 0-3, days, P = 0.039) and tended to be more likely to develop infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) (15.3% vs 6.3%, P = 0.087) and gastrointestinal fistula (6% vs 0%, P = 0.082) than euthyroid patients. Free triiodothyronine (FT3) was found the best performance in predicting death compared by other well-recognized biomarkers.

NTIS is common in AP patients within 7 days after the onset of the disease. NTIS is associated with the worse characteristics at admission and poor outcome during the course. FT3 should be investigate as a potential biomarker in the prediction of death in AP patients.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas. We analyzed changes in inflammation markers to explore the clinical significance of using these markers to predict the severity of AP.

The study included 169 patients (severe AP = 50 and nonsevere AP = 119) admitted to Yanbian University Hospital between January 2015 and July 2017. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutrition index (PNI), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, red blood cell distribution width coefficient of variation, mean platelet volume, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, and red blood cell distribution width-to-platelet ratio of the patients were detected after admission. Correlations between AP severity and various inflammatory markers were statistically analyzed.

The results indicated that the NLR on the first day after admission (area under the curve, 0.824; 95% confidence interval, 0.753-0.896) and the PNI on the third day after admission (area under the curve, 0.814; 95% confidence interval, 0.753-0.896) had more significance than other inflammation markers in predicting the severity of AP. In AP patients, the NLR showed a gradual decline, and the PNI initially decreased and then increased.

The NLR and PNI can provide new reference values for predicting the severity of AP.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.

The aim of this systematic review is to summarize epidemiological data and areas of future acute pancreatitis research in Spain.

We conduct an independent search in PubMed and Web of Science and analyse articles by Spanish researchers from 2008 to 2018.

We identified an overall incidence of 72/100,000 person-years, with biliary pancreatitis as the most common etiology. BISAP was useful but suboptimal for predicting severity and some biomarkers such as Oleic acid chlorohydrin have shown promising results. The modified determinant-based classification can help to classify patients admitted to intensive care units. Ringer's lactate solution is currently the fluid of choice and classic surgery has been surpassed by minimally-invasive approaches. Starting a full-caloric diet is safe when bowel sounds are present.

There are numerous well-defined research fields in Spain. Future multicentre studies should focus on management, predicting severity and cost-effectiveness.

Systemic inflammatory responses are associated with the development and progression of liver failure. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), red cell distribution width (RDW), RDW-to platelet ratio (RPR), mean platelet volume (MPV), and MPV-to platelet ratio (MPR) are markers of systemic inflammation. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic values of these inflammatory markers in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).203 HBV-ACLF patients, 79 cirrhosis patients (LC), 63 chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and 81 healthy subjects (HS) participated in this cohort study. Complete blood counts and biochemical examinations were obtained after overnight fasting. Multivariate analyses of 90-day outcome predictors were analyzed by Cox regression models. Survival probability curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method.The levels of NLR, MLR, RDW, MPV, RPR, and MPR were significantly higher and PNI was lower in patients with liver failure at presentation compared to those in LC, CHB, and HS (P <.001). In acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients, NLR and MLR were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors (P <.001), while other inflammatory markers showed no difference. ROC curve analyses showed that NLR combined with MLR had the highest AUC for identified poor outcome, followed by NLR, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), MLR, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and TBIL. Multivariate analyses showed that TBIL, NLR, CTP, MELD, and CLIF-SOFA were independent predictors for 90-day mortality.Combination of NLR and MLR are more accurate prognostic markers for predicting poor outcome than either marker alone in ACLF patients. And this combination is superior to the CLIF-SOFA, MELD, CTP score, and TBIL in terms of prognostic ability.

Predicting severe acute pancreatitis (AP) is important for triage, prognosis, and designing therapeutic trials. Persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) predicts severe AP but its diagnostic accuracy is suboptimal. Our objective was to study if cytokine levels could improve the predictive value of clinical variables for the development of severe AP.

Consecutive patients with AP were included in a prospective cohort study at a tertiary care center. Serum levels of IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10, MCP-1, GM-CSF and IL-1β were measured at day 3 of onset of AP. Variables such as age, co-morbidity, etiology, SIRS, and cytokines were modeled to predict severe AP by multivariable regression analysis. Genotyping was done to correlate IL-6, TNF-α and MCP-1 gene polymorphisms with cytokine levels.

Of 236 patients with AP, 115 patients admitted within 7 days of onset formed the study group. 37 of the 115 (32%) patients developed organ failure. Independent predictors of organ failure were persistent SIRS (OR 34; 95% CI: 7.2-159) and day 3 serum IL-6 of >160 pg/ml (OR 16.1; 95% CI:1.8-142). IL-6 gene (-174 G/C) GG genotype was associated with significantly higher levels of IL-6 compared to CC/CG genotype. Serum IL-6 >160 pg/ml increased the positive predictive value of persistent SIRS from 56% to 85% and specificity from 64% to 95% for predicting OF without compromising its sensitivity and negative predictive value.

Serum IL-6 of >160 ng/ml added significantly to the predictive value of SIRS for severe AP.

To investigate the association between serum albumin levels within 24 hrs of patient admission and the development of persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis.

A total of 700 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression and subgroup analysis determined whether decreased albumin was independently associated with persistent organ failure and mortality. The diagnostic performance of serum albumin was evaluated by the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves.

As levels of serum albumin decrease, the risk of persistent organ failure significantly increases (Ptrend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure was 3.5%, 10.6%, and 41.6% in patients with normal albumin and mild and severe hypoalbuminaemia, respectively. Decreased albumin levels were also proportionally associated with prolonged hospital stay (Ptrend < 0.001) and the risk of death (Ptrend < 0.001). Multivariate analysis suggested that biliary etiology, chronic concomitant diseases, hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen, and the serum albumin level were independently associated with persistent organ failure. Blood urea nitrogen and the serum albumin level were also independently associated with mortality. The area under ROC curves of albumin for predicting organ failure and mortality were 0.78 and 0.87, respectively.

A low serum albumin is independently associated with an increased risk of developing of persistent organ failure and death in acute pancreatitis. It may also be useful for the prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis.

Inflammation-based prognostic markers (neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), red cell distribution width (RDW) and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR)) are associated with overall survival in some diseases. This study assessed their prognostic value in mortality and severity in acute pancreatitis (AP).

A retrospective cohort study.

Patients with AP were recruited from the emergency department at our hospital.

A total of 359 patients with AP (31 non-survivors) were enrolled.

Mortality and severity of AP were the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively. Biochemistry and haematology results of the first test after admission were collected. Independent relationships between severe AP (SAP) and markers were assessed using multivariate logistic regression models. Mortality prediction ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Overall survival was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with differences compared using the log-rank test. Independent relationships between mortality and each predictor were estimated using the Cox proportional hazard models.

Compared with survivors of AP, non-survivors had higher RDW (p<0.001), higher NLR (p<0.001), lower LMR (p<0.001) and lower PNI (p<0.001) at baseline. C reactive protein (CRP; OR=8.251, p<0.001), RDW (OR=2.533, p=0.003) and PNI (OR=7.753, p<0.001) were independently associated with the occurrence of SAP. For predicting mortality, NLR had the largest area under the ROC curve (0.804, p<0.001), with a 16.64 cut-off value, 82.4% sensitivity and 75.6% specificity. RDW was a reliable marker for excluding death owing to its lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.11). NLR (HR=4.726, p=0.004), CRP (HR=3.503, p=0.003), RDW (HR=3.139, p=0.013) and PNI (HR=2.641, p=0.011) were independently associated with mortality of AP.

NLR was the most powerful marker of overall survival in this patient series.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) in elderly may have an aggressive course due to co-morbidity high rate and severe presentation. We retrospectively evaluated AP severity and its underlying factors in a group of elderly patients compared with an adult population sample.

Forty-two elderly patients (65-102years) and 48 controls (19-64years) admitted at our Unit for biliary or alcoholic AP were retrospectively enrolled. AP severity was evaluated by the Atlanta classification and Ransom score. Laboratory investigations and demographic data were collected. Comparison between the two groups was performed by t-test, ANOVA or Fisher's exact test. A multinomial logistic regression was used to determine factors affecting AP severity.

Elderly patients showed more severe Atlanta (1.81±0.75 vs 1.29±0.46; p=0.007) and higher Ransom (2.52±1.57 vs 0.75±0.73; p<0.0001) scores. No death was observed. Elderly patients consumed more drugs than controls, had higher rates of cardiovascular, pulmonary and renal co-morbidity, showed higher creatinine (1.09±0.41 vs 0.81±0.18; p=0.004) and lower calcium levels (8.43±0.48 vs 8.88±0.44; p=0.002). We observed only one case of fluid necrosis in an old patient. Non-necrotic fluid collections were more common in the elderly (40.5% vs 12.5%; p=0.003). At multivariate analysis, AP severity was influenced by white blood cell-count (WBC: OR=1.94; p=0.048), aspartate-transaminase-levels (AST: OR=1.97; p=0.02), serum lactate-dehydrogenase (LDH: OR=1.07; p=0.047) and Ransom score (OR=70.4; p=0.036) in elderly, while only Ransom score correlated in controls (OR=66.04; p<0.001). The etiology (biliary/alcoholic) did not influence the severity.

Elderly patients usually undergo a severe AP course, but without increase of mortality. High WBC, LDH, AST and Ransom score at the onset may predict AP severity.

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a serious medical condition usually associated with severe upper abdominal pain. The purpose of our study is to assess the therapeutic consequences of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) and the predictive value of CRP for severe pancreatitis. We included patients with a threefold increase of plasma lipase who had received a CE-CT or had a CRP of =150 mg/dl. A total of 74 out of 283 patients got a contrast-enhanced CT scan; in 11 cases the CT was followed by endoscopic or surgical interventions as therapeutic consequences compared with 19 out of 50 control cases. 69 out of 283 patients (24,3%) had CRP >150 mg/dl within 48 hours after admission. 32 of them had SAP. The CRP cutoff of 150 mg/L had a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 65%. The positive predictive value for SAP in patients beyond the cutoff is 46.4%. The negative predictive value for SAP in patients below the cutoff was 89.5%. Our results support the opinion that an early CE-CT is usually not indicated. CRP helps to assess the course of AP; levels below 150 mg/dl between the first 48 h indicate a mild course in most of the cases.

Upregulated CD64 expression on neutrophils is the most useful marker for acute bacterial infections and systemic inflammation. However, it is unknown whether CD64 is involved in the pathogenesis of acute pancreatitis (AP). This study was designed to determine whether CD64 is implicated in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and thus, is a suitable marker for SAP.

SAP was induced in rats with an intraperitoneal injection of L-arginine. CD64 expression in the rat pancreas was determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and immunohistochemistry. Additionally, the CD64 mRNA expression in peripheral blood leukocytes from 21 patients with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 10 patients with SAP was investigated at the time of admission and during remission by qRT-PCR.

CD64 mRNA and protein expression in the pancreas was significantly higher in rats with SAP, compared to the controls. The CD64 expression was higher in the patients with SAP than in the patients with MAP. During remission, CD64 mRNA decreased in both the MAP and SAP patients. The area under the curve of CD64 expression for the detection of SAP was superior to both the Ranson and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores.

The CD64 level was significantly increased in correlation with the disease severity in SAP and may act as a useful marker for predicting the development of SAP.

Early diagnosis and severity evaluation in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) are very important due to its potential morbidity and mortality. Several clinical, laboratory, and radiologic factors, and many scoring systems have been proposed for outcome prediction. Although the Ranson and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scoring systems have been widely used for decades, the cumbersome components partly limit their predictability. Recently, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP scoring system and series blood urea nitrogen changes, which are simple and convenient to evaluate within 24 hours after admission, have been validated for accuracy by several large-cohort studies. The presence of organ failure and systemic inflammatory response syndrome are also helpful to evaluate the severity of AP. Herein we review recent advances of the predictive methods for AP to provide an up-to-date perspective on outcome assessment of AP.

Hypertriglyceridemia is an unusual cause of acute pancreatitis and sometimes considered to be an epiphenomenon. This study aimed to investigate the clinical and analytical features and the APOE genotypes in patients with acute pancreatitis and severe hypertriglyceridemia.

We undertook a one-year, prospective study of patients with acute pancreatitis whose first laboratory analysis on admission to the emergency department included measurement of serum triglycerides. The APOE genotype was determined and the patients answered an established questionnaire within the first 24 hours concerning their alcohol consumption, the presence of co-morbidities and any medications being taken. The patients' progression, etiological diagnosis, hospital stay and clinical and radiological severity were all recorded.

Hypertriglyceridemia was responsible for 7 of 133 cases of pancreatitis (5%); the remaining cases were of biliary (53%), idiopathic (26%), alcoholic (11%) or other (5%) origin. Compared with these remaining cases, the patients with hypertriglyceridemia were significantly younger, had more relapses, and more often had diabetes mellitus. They usually consumed alcohol or consumed it excessively on the days before admission. Also, the ε4 allele of the APOE gene was more common in this group (P<0.05).

One of 20 episodes of acute pancreatitis is caused by hypertriglyceridemia and it is linked to genetic (ε4 allele) and comorbid factors such as diabetes and, especially, alcohol consumption.

The available prognostic scoring systems for acute pancreatitis have limitations that restrict their clinical value.

To develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

A total of 420 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Study participants were randomly assigned to the training sample and test sample in a 2:1 ratio. First, univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify predictors associated with SAP in the training sample. Then, CART analysis was carried out to develop a simple tree model for the prediction of SAP. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed in order to assess the performance of the model. The prediction model was then applied to the test sample.

Four variables (systemic inflammatory response syndrome [SIRS], pleural effusion, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen [BUN]) were identified as important predictors of SAP by logistic regression analysis. A tree model (which consisted of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN) that was developed by CART analysis was able to early identify among cohorts at high (79.03%) and low (7.80%) risk of developing SAP. The area under the ROC curve of the tree model was higher than that of the APACHE II score (0.84 vs. 0.68; P < 0.001). The predicted accuracy of the tree model was validated in the test sample with an area under the ROC curve of 0.86.

A decision tree model that consists of pleural effusion, serum calcium, and BUN may be useful for the prediction of SAP.