Prognostic biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: A contemporary systematic review and modelling study

Table 5 Calibration, overall prediction accuracy and baseline survival for the initial biologically derived signature and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-derived 5-gene signature in The Cancer Genome Atlas pancreatic adenocarcinoma derivation cohort and the Gene Expression Omnibus dataset GSE71729 validation cohort

Cohort	Model	Calibration slope	Brier score at 1/2/3 year	Integrated Brier score, 0-3 years	Baseline survival at 1/2/3 years (%)
TCGA-PAAD derivation cohort (n = 177, 93 events)	LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, univariable	1.861	0.183/0.203/0.171	0.168	76.9/42.0/35.4
	LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, multivariable	1.817		0.163
	Initial biologically derived signature, univariable	0.124	0.185/0.240/0.225	0.186	75.5/40.5/35.2
	Initial biologically derived signature, multivariable			0.173
GSE71729 validation cohort (n = 125, 84 events)	LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, univariable	0.154	0.234/0.213/0.163	0.189	64.0/33.3/22.2
	LASSO-derived 5-gene signature, subtype-adjusted	0.223		0.177

GSE71729: Gene Expression Omnibus dataset GSE71729; LASSO: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; TCGA-PAAD: The Cancer Genome Atlas Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.