Predicting mortality in patients with acute heart failure: Role of risk scores

Table 3 Performances of risk scores

Risk score	Calibration	C-statistic(derivation cohort)	C-statistic(validation cohort)	Low-risk group mortality (%)	High-risk group mortality (%)
In-hospital mortality
ADHERE[15]	NV	0.75	0.75	2.1	21.9
AHFI[16]	NV	NA	0.59	0.3	NA
OPTIMIZE-HF[19]	NV1	0.75	0.746	NA	NA
GWTG-HF[20]	Calibrated	0.75	0.75	0.4	9.7
EHMRG[21]	Calibrated	0.80	0.803	0.3	8.2
PROTECT[23]	Calibrated	0.67	0.67	4.81	28.72
Post-discharge mortality
EFFECT[24]	Calibrated	0.80 (30 d)	0.79 (30 d)	0.4 (30 d)	59 (30 d)
		0.77 (1 yr)	0.76 (1 yr)	7.8 (1 yr)	78.8 (1 yr)
OPTIME-CHF[25]	NV1	0.77	0.76	2	30
OPTIMIZE-HF[26]	NV	0.72	NA	NA	NA
APACHE-HF[27]	NV	0.78			202
ELAN[28]	NV	0.77	NA	3.6	51.1
ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score[29]	Calibrated	0.84	0.77	3.7	89.5
ESCAPE[30]	NV1	0.76	0.653	7	100

¹A graphic plot of the predicted vs observed probability of outcome was reported;

²Relative risk of death in the high-risk group vs the low-risk group;

³In the validation cohort, the model did not include brain natriuretic peptide and diuretic dose. NA: Not available; NV: Calibration was not verified by statistical tests; ADHERE: Acute decompensated heart failure national registry; AHFI: Acute heart failure index; OPTIMIZE-HF: Organized program to initiate lifesaving treatment in hospitalized patients with heart failure; GWTG-HF: Get with the guidelines-heart failure; OPTIME-CHF: Outcomes of a prospective trial of intravenous milrinone for exacerbations of chronic heart failure; EHMRG: Emergency heart failure mortality risk grade; EFFECT: Enhanced feedback for effective cardiac treatment; BNP: Brain natriuretic peptide; ADHF/NT-proBNP: Acutely decompensated heart failure n-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide; ESCAPE: Evaluation study of congestive heart failure and pulmonary artery catheterization effectiveness; PROTECT: Placebo-controlled randomized study of the selective A1 adenosine receptor antagonist rolofylline for patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure and volume overload to assess treatment effect on congestion and renal function; ELAN: European collaboration on acute decompensated heart failure.