Cost-effectiveness analysis of seven treatments vs sorafenib as first-line therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in China

Table 3 Model parameters

Model variables	Base line value (range)		Minimum	Maximum	Distribution	Source
Survival distribution
PFS of sorafenib	μ = -1.079, σ = 0.855		Fixed	Fixed	Log-normal	Model fitting
OS of sorafenib	μ = 0.115, σ = 0.992		Fixed	Fixed	Log-normal	Model fitting
PFS of lenvatinib	μ = -0.515, σ = 1.100		μ = -0.218, σ = 1.219	μ = -0.785, σ = 0.990	Log-normal	NMA
OS of lenvatinib	μ = 0.407, σ = 1.075		μ = 0.689, σ = 1.171	μ = 0.144, σ = 1.003	Log-normal	NMA
PFS of camrelizumab plus rivoceranib	μ = -0.582, σ = 1.043		μ = -0.339, σ = 1.135	μ = -0.791, σ = 0.961	Log-normal	NMA
OS of camrelizumab plus rivoceranib	μ = 0.534, σ = 1.129		μ = 811, σ = 1.207	μ = 0.256, σ = 1.044	Log-normal	NMA
PFS of sintilimab plus IBI305	μ = -0.592, σ = 1.016		μ = -0.376, σ = 1.093	μ = -0.782, σ = 0.947	Log-normal	NMA
OS of sintilimab plus IBI305	μ = 0.592, σ = 1.108		μ = 0.858, σ = 1.176	μ = 0.339, σ = 1.039	Log-normal	NMA
PFS of L + P	μ = -0.350, σ = 1.166		μ = 0.179, σ = 1.360	μ = -0.809, σ = 0.971	Log-normal	NMA
OS of L + P	μ = 0.692, σ = 1.157		μ = 1.240, σ = 1.311	μ = 0.205, σ = 1.042	Log-normal	NMA
PFS of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab	μ = -0.649, σ = 1.007		μ = -0.232, σ = 1.160	μ = -1.009, σ = 0.861	Log-normal	NMA
OS of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab	μ = 0.878, σ = 1.199		μ = 1.508, σ = 1.360	μ = 0.328, σ = 1.042	Log-normal	NMA
PFS of L + T	μ = 0.477, σ = 1.467		μ = 0.930, σ = 1.6380	μ = 0.023, σ = 1.3025	Log-normal	NMA
OS of L + T	μ = 1.267, σ = 1.337		μ = 1.771, σ = 1.483	μ = 0.824, σ = 1.228	Log-normal	NMA
Treatment cost ($)
Sorafenib; Bayer (per plate)	12.07		Fixed	Fixed	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Lenvatinib; Eisai (per plate)	15.17		12.14	18.2	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Sintilimab; Xinda (per cycle)	303.37		242.7	364.04	Gamma	Bid-winning price
IBI305; Xinda (per kg)	23.51		18.81	28.21	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Apatinib; Hengrui (per plate)	14.69		11.75	17.63	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Camrelizumab; Hengrui (per cycle)	361.89		289.51	434.27	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Atezolizumab; Roche (per cycle)	4606.74		3685.39	5528.09	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Bevacizumab; Roche (per 100 mg)	210.67		168.54	252.8	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Pembrolizumab; Merck (per cycle)	5033.15		4026.52	6039.78	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Regofenib, Bayer (per plate)	24.16		19.33	28.99	Gamma	Bid-winning price
TACE (per cycle)	2986.24		2388.99	3583.49	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Best supportive care (per year)	3180		2544	3816	Gamma
Bed charge (per cycle)	58.57		46.86	70.28	Gamma	Bid-winning price
Follow-up and monitoring (per year)	659.58		527.66	791.5	Gamma
Hospice care (per person)	1839		1471.2	2206.8	Gamma
Cost of adverse events ($)
Proteinuria	562.64		450.11	675.17	Gamma	DRG
Hypertension	520.51		416.41	624.61	Gamma	DRG
Asthenia	0		0	0	Gamma	DRG
Rash	245.79		196.63	294.95	Gamma	DRG
Hand-foot syndrome	245.79		196.63	294.95	Gamma	DRG
RCCEP	577.11		461.69	692.53	Gamma	DRG
Diarrhea	630.2		504.16	756.24	Gamma	DRG
Increased AST	474.72		379.78	569.66	Gamma	DRG
Increased blood bilirubin	439.75		351.8	527.7	Gamma	DRG
Neutropenia	586.8		469.44	704.16	Gamma	DRG
Decreased platelet count	582.02		465.62	698.42	Gamma	DRG
Anemia	685.67		548.54	822.8	Gamma	DRG
Sorafenib	174.72		139.78	209.66	Gamma	Calculation
Lenvatinib	234.41		187.53	281.29	Gamma	Calculation
Camrelizumab plus rivoceranib	505.2		404.16	606.24	Gamma	Calculation
Sintilimab plus IBI308	177.39		141.91	212.87	Gamma	Calculation
Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab	126.12		100.9	151.34	Gamma	Calculation
L + P	262.36		209.89	314.83	Gamma	Calculation
L + T	329.78		263.82	395.74	Gamma	Calculation
After progression	283.15		226.52	339.78	Gamma	Calculation
Other parameters
Weight	65		52	78	Normal
Discount rate	0.05		0	0.08	Uniform
Cycle of TACE	3		1	6	Uniform
Exchange rate	7.12		-	-	-	Fixed
Utility
PFS	0.76		0.608	0.912	Beta
Progressive disease	0.68		0.544	0.816	Beta
Disutiliy of toxicities
Proteinuria	0		0	0	Beta
Hypertension	0.08		0.064	0.096	Beta
Asthenia	0.1		0.08	0.12	Beta
Rash	0.1		0.08	0.12	Beta
Hand-foot syndrome	0.116		0.093	0.139	Beta
RCCEP	0.1		0.08	0.12	Beta
Diarrhea	0.05		0.04	0.06	Beta
Increased AST	0		0	0	Beta
Increased blood bilirubin	0		0	0	Beta
Neutropenia	0.2		0.16	0.24
Decreased platelet count	0.11		0.088	0.132	Beta
Anemia	0.07		0.056	0.084	Beta
Sorafenib	0.036		0.029	0.043	Beta	Calculation
Lenvatinib	0.034		0.027	0.041	Beta	Calculation
Camrelizumab plus rivoceranib	0.08		0.064	0.096	Beta	Calculation
Sintilimab plus IBI305	0.018		0.014	0.022	Beta	Calculation
Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab	0.01		0.008	0.012	Beta	Calculation
L + P	0.032		0.026	0.038	Beta	Calculation
L + T	0.031		0.0248	0.0372	Beta	Calculation
After progression	0.044		0.0352	0.0528	Beta	Calculation

AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; DRG: Diagnosis-Related Group; L + P: Lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab; L + T: Lenvatinib plus transarterial chemoembolization; NMA: Network meta-analysis; OS: Overall survival; PFS: Progression-free survival; RCCEP: Reactive cutaneous capillary endothelial proliferation; TACE: Transarterial chemoembolization.