Multimarker model for non-invasive assessment of variceal bleeding in chronic hepatitis C cirrhotic patients

Table 12 Multivariate ordinal logistic regression for predictors of higher variceal grade in group I and group II

Variable	Group I-model 1 (Child-Pugh)		Group I-model 2 (MELD)		Group II-model 1 (Child-Pugh)		Group II-model 2 (MELD)
	aOR (95%CI)	P value	aOR (95%CI)	P value	aOR (95%CI)	P value	aOR (95%CI)	P value
FT3 (per 1 pmol/L decrease)	2.25 (1.52-3.33)	< 0.001	2.18 (1.48-3.21)	< 0.001	2.10 (1.45-3.05)	< 0.001	2.05 (1.42-2.98)	< 0.001
PLT (per 50 × 103/μL decrease)	1.75 (1.28-2.39)	< 0.001	1.70 (1.25-2.32)	0.001	1.65 (1.22-2.24)	0.001	1.62 (1.20-2.19)	0.002
INR (per 0.1 unit increase)	1.15 (1.03-1.28)	0.012	1.13 (1.02-1.26)	0.023	1.14 (1.02–1.27)	0.018	1.12 (1.01-1.25)	0.038
Child-Pugh score	1.45 (1.08-1.95)	0.013			1.40 (1.05-1.88)	0.023
MELD score			1.12 (1.02-1.23)	0.015			1.10 (1.01-1.20)	0.035
Age (years)	1.02 (0.98-1.06)	0.280	1.02 (0.98-1.06)	0.305	1.01 (0.97-1.05)	0.550	1.01 (0.97-1.05)	0.585
Sex (male)	1.20 (0.87-1.66)	0.260	1.18 (0.85-1.63)	0.322	1.15 (0.84–1.58)	0.380	1.14 (0.83-1.56)	0.415

Continuous predictors (free triiodothyronine, platelet count, international normalized ratio) were scaled to clinically relevant increments (a 1 pmol/L decrease, a 50 × 10³/μL decrease, and a 0.1 unit increase, respectively) to facilitate the interpretation of odds ratios. An adjusted odds ratio > 1 indicates increased odds of a higher variceal grade. Models are adjusted for the variables listed. aOR: Adjusted odds ratio; FT3: Free triiodothyronine; PLT: Platelet count; INR: International normalized ratio; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease.