Dynamic nomogram predicts sepsis risk in patients with acute liver failure: Analysis of intensive care database with external validation

Table 3 Predictive value of various scoring models for sepsis risk in patients with acute liver failure in the internal derivation, validation cohort, and external validation cohort

Predictive model	Youden index	Cutoff	SEN	SPE	PPV	NPV	Brier score	R2 value	P value in H-L test
Derivation set in MIMIC cohort
SIALF model	0.573	0.726	0.770	0.802	0.924	0.527	0.128	0.411	0.989
SOFA	0.386	6.500	0.781	0.605	0.861	0.468	0.157	0.183	0.620
SIRS	0.183	2.500	0.729	0.453	0.807	0.348	0.180	0.022	0.022
Validation set in MIMIC cohort (internal validation)
SIALF model	0.600	0.717	0.815	0.786	0.918	0.589	0.087	0.665	0.943
SOFA	0.384	7.500	0.694	0.690	0.869	0.433	0.160	0.202	0.752
SIRS	0.265	2.500	0.718	0.548	0.824	0.397	0.178	0.082	0.088
FMCPH cohort (external validation)
SIALF model	0.553	0.719	0.784	0.769	0.918	0.518	0.078	0.703	0.801
SOFA	0.183	7.500	0.778	0.405	0.805	0.366	0.158	0.182	0.421
SIRS	0.352	2.500	0.650	0.703	0.874	0.388	0.177	0.045	0.067

SEN: Sensitivity; SPE: Specificity; PPV: Positive predictive value; NPV: Negative predictive value; H-L test: Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test; MIMIC: Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care; FMCPH: The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital; SIALF: Sepsis in acute liver failure; SOFA: Sequential organ failure assessment; SIRS: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome.