Current and forecasted 10-year prevalence and incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

Table 3 Age- and sex-stratified current and forecasted incidence of inflammatory bowel disease, Crohn’s disease, and ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

	CDARS (Hong Kong)				JMDC (Japan)				Merative (United States)
	Incidence		Forecasted incidence		Incidence		Forecasted incidence		Incidence		Forecasted incidence
	2003	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)
IBD	1.63	4.67	6.20 (5.22 to 7.18)	3.10 (-5.93 to 13.09)	17.36	26.48	39.03 (24.93 to 53.13)	2.88 (-0.83 to 6.75)	36.60	39.62	41.86 (35.65 to 48.08)	0 (-3.28 to 3.39)
Age (IBD)
< 18	0.93	3.62	5.11 (2.61 to 7.60)	3.28 (-6.77 to 14.55)	4.81	12.93	31.78 (18.85 to 53.56)	9.06 (4.11 to 14.31)1	10.39	17.48	26.95 (14.26 to 50.94)	4.43 (-0.24 to 9.35)
18-44	2.08	5.92	10.92 (7.09 to 16.81)	5.78 (-1.75 to 14.01)	26.35	37.03	39.36 (18.79 to 82.47)	-0.15 (-3.52 to 3.34)	43.83	48.33	50.43 (43.01 to 57.85)	0 (-2.99 to 3.09)
45-64	1.92	4.46	7.39 (3.24 to 16.82)	4.14 (-4.53 to 13.73)	18.61	26.08	26.08 (-12.24 to 64.39)	0 (-4.14 to 4.32)	63.19	56.72	56.72 (11.04 to 102.41)	0 (-2.83 to 2.91)
65 +	1.38	3.01	4.34 (2.64 to 6.04)	2.08 (-8.43 to 13.90)
Sex (IBD)
Male	1.92	6.38	8.90 (7.41 to 10.38)	3.15 (-4.45 to 11.44)	22.64	30.49	44.61 (26.81 to 62.41)	2.71 (-0.75 to 6.30)	34.71	39.36	40.60 (34.39 to 46.81)	0 (-3.33 to 3.45)
Female	1.35	3.21	4.19 (2.81 to 5.58)	2.82 (-8.06 to 15.12)	10.27	21.68	33.08 (21.34 to 44.82)	3.37 (-0.71 to 7.65)	38.30	39.79	42.96 (36.55 to 49.37)	0 (-3.24 to 3.35)
UC	0.94	2.25	2.90 (2.26 to 3.54)	2.55 (-10.11 to 17.17)	14.41	22.21	33.28 (20.33 to 46.24)	2.98 (-1.05 to 7.18)	21.12	22.79	23.57 (20.21 to 26.93)	0 (-4.35 to 4.55)
Age (UC)
< 18	0.08	0.85	0.85 (-0.62 to 2.32)	0 (-21.28 to 27.04)	3.21	8.42	21.36 (10.35 to 44.07)	9.24 (3.20 to 15.73)1	4.45	6.62	8.46 (6.06 to 10.85)	2.49 (-5.23 to 10.89)
18-44	1.26	2.76	2.76 (0.83 to 9.23)	0 (-12.26 to 13.97)	22.03	31.86	55.34 (26.54 to 115.40)	4.54 (1.24 to 7.97)1	25.07	28.11	28.44 (24.34 to 32.54)	0 (-3.97 to 4.13)
45-64	1.55	3.41	3.66 (1.18 to 6.07)	-0.12 (-10.86 to 11.92)	16.40	24.06	24.06 (-10.91 to 59.03)	0 (-4.31 to 4.50)	39.40	37.44	42.08 (34.93 to 49.24)	0 (-3.27 to 3.38)
65 +	1.26	2.22	2.56 (1.03 to 4.09)	0 (-12.70 to 14.55)
Sex (UC)
Male	1.03	2.37	2.37 (0.54 to 10.43)	0 (-13.17 to 15.17)	18.24	24.80	44.01 (21.46 to 90.30)	4.57 (0.89 to 8.42)1	20.06	22.32	22.80 (19.43 to 26.18)	0 (-4.42 to 4.63)
Female	0.88	2.17	2.93 (1.88 to 4.57)	4.46 (-8.80 to 19.98)	9.29	19.08	29.20 (18.49 to 39.91)	3.42 (-0.93 to 7.98)	21.82	23.23	24.23 (20.77 to 27.70)	0 (-4.29 to 4.48)
CD	0.69	2.43	4.86 (2.73 to 8.63)	6.96 (-4.5 to 20.14)	2.94	4.27	5.68 (3.74 to 7.62)	2.35 (-6.96 to 12.66)	15.61	16.83	18.31 (15.32 to 21.30)	0 (-4.92 to 5.18)
Age (CD)
< 18	0.85	2.77	5.83 (2.05 to 16.57)	6.93 (-3.58 to 18.88)	1.60	4.51	10.35 (4.15 to 25.82)	8.69 (0.29 to 18.01)1	6.35	10.86	10.86 (4.22 to 17.50)	0 (-6.35 to 6.78)
18-44	0.83	3.16	4.51 (3.75 to 5.28)	3.26 (-7.52 to 15.45)	4.32	5.17	4.78 (3.30 to 6.26)	0 (-9.44 to 10.42)	18.76	20.22	21.99 (18.38 to 25.59)	0 (-4.50 to 4.71)
45-64	0.37	1.05	1.11 (0.02 to 2.20)	0 (-18.79 to 23.14)	2.22	2.02	2.66 (1.77 to 3.55)	0 (-12.48 to 14.26)	23.79	19.28	19.28 (1.89 to 36.68)	0 (-4.80 to 5.04)
65 +	0.13	0.78	0.73 (-0.33 to 1.78)	0 (-22.91 to 29.72)
Sex (CD)
Male	0.90	4.01	5.28 (4.20 to 6.37)	3.67 (-6.26 to 14.79)	4.40	5.68	5.78 (2.71 to 8.86)	-0.05 (-8.65 to 9.35)	14.65	17.04	17.80 (14.84 to 20.76)	0 (-4.99 to 5.25)
Female	0.47	1.05	1.07 (0.21 to 1.93)	0 (-19.14 to 23.67)	0.98	2.61	5.00 (2.57 to 9.70)	6.10 (-4.75 to 18.46)	16.48	16.56	18.73 (15.54 to 21.92)	0 (-4.87 to 5.12)

¹Significantly increasing/decreasing average annual percentage change.

AAPC: Average annual percentage change; CD: Crohn’s disease; CDARS: Clinical data analysis and reporting system; CI: Confidence interval; IBD: Inflammatory bowel disease; JMDC: Japan Medical Data Center; Merative: The Merative™ MarketScan^® (“Merative” previously IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters) database; PI: Prediction interval; UC: Ulcerative colitis. Incidence is expressed per 100000 population. Incidence was age-standardized using the World Health Organization standard population, except for age-stratified prevalence, which consisted of crude rates.