Current and forecasted 10-year prevalence and incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

Table 2 Age- and sex-stratified current and forecasted prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease, Crohn’s disease, and ulcerative colitis in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States

	CDARS (Hong Kong)				JMDC (Japan)				Merative (United States)
	Prevalence		Forecasted prevalence		Prevalence		Forecasted prevalence		Prevalence		Forecasted prevalence
	2003	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)	2010	2022	2032 (95%PI)	Forecasted AAPC (%, 95%CI)
IBD	13.63	58.12	105.88 (83.01 to 128.75)	5.85 (3.38 to 8.40)1	187.78	368.34	645.79 (562.51 to 741.39)	5.78 (4.76 to 6.80)1	284.32	472.79	629.86 (569.09 to 690.63)	2.85 (1.91 to 3.79)1
Age (IBD)
< 18	2.01	11.06	15.82 (11.46 to 20.18)	3.45 (-2.43 to 9.73)	16.45	75.55	269.20 (166.46 to 435.35)	13.52 (11.55 to 15.55)1	61.83	176.92	272.82 (242.69 to 302.95)	4.27 (2.79 to 5.77)1
18-44	17.74	75.94	163.21 (152.56 to 174.61)	7.95 (5.81 to 10.15)1	281.97	557.46	983.77 (828.63 to 1167.95)	5.84 (5.02 to 6.67)1	366.71	648.57	883.45 (795.75 to 971.16)	3.06 (2.27 to 3.86)1
45-64	21.34	89.22	144.93 (123.80 to 166.07)	4.76 (2.71 to 6.86)1	264.32	440.66	589.50 (561.33 to 617.68)	2.80 (1.83 to 3.77)1	466.59	577.72	670.33 (583.13 to 757.52)	1.48 (0.61 to 2.36)1
65 +	18.86	74.04	109.06 (90.95 to 127.17)	3.81 (1.51 to 6.16)1
Sex (IBD)
Male	16.52	81.31	171.40 (128.68 to 228.31)	7.71 (5.63 to 9.84)1	217.52	421.11	730.24 (643.26 to 828.99)	5.65 (4.70 to 6.61)1	274.96	467.54	628.03 (565.96 to 690.11)	2.92 (1.99 to 3.87)1
Female	11.01	39.51	78.87 (55.40 to 112.29)	7.25 (4.25 to 10.36)1	146.54	303.51	556.79 (461.24 to 672.14)	6.25 (5.14 to 7.37)1	292.64	477.03	630.68 (569.90 to 691.46)	2.78 (1.85 to 3.72)1
UC	8.91	30.03	56.72 (43.43 to 74.06)	6.62 (3.16 to 10.23)1	149.82	303.30	545.88 (470.77 to 632.99)	6.05 (4.94 to 7.17)1	137.13	232.46	311.90 (280.58 to 343.22)	2.95 (1.62 to 4.29)1
Age (UC)
< 18	0.54	2.77	3.94 (1.88 to 5.99)	4.38 (-7.16 to 17.60)	12.84	50.70	159.29 (103.38 to 245.46)	12.12 (9.66 to 14.65)1	21.51	58.41	89.17 (77.73 to 100.62)	4.15 (1.58 to 6.78)1
18-44	10.18	29.93	52.79 (45.60 to 61.13)	5.79 (2.29 to 9.43)1	217.13	454.66	841.71 (700.68 to 1011.13)	6.35 (5.44 to 7.26)1	173.27	322.52	446.90 (402.66 to 491.13)	3.24 (2.12 to 4.37)1
45-64	16.82	61.50	85.54 (77.83 to 93.24)	3.04 (0.51 to 5.64)1	227.63	390.15	526.33 (504.47 to 548.19)	2.88 (1.86 to 3.91)1	245.73	321.87	377.06 (188.43 to 754.54)	1.54 (0.38 to 2.72)1
65 +	15.46	58.80	81.61 (75.02 to 88.20)	3.28 (0.67 to 5.96)1
Sex (UC)
Male	10.46	37.73	74.12 (66.27 to 82.89)	7.07 (3.99 to 10.26)1	165.33	332.19	594.17 (519.19 to 679.98)	5.99 (4.93 to 7.06)1	136.58	229.57	307.06 (275.04 to 339.08)	2.89 (1.56 to 4.25)1
Female	7.50	23.86	43.85 (38.89 to 49.45)	6.37 (2.47 to 10.45)1	128.45	267.82	494.06 (406.66 to 600.23)	6.31 (5.13 to 7.50)1	137.66	235.24	316.56 (285.08 to 348.03)	2.94 (1.62 to 4.28)1
CD	4.72	28.09	66.03 (44.21 to 98.64)	8.95 (5.50 to 12.54)1	37.96	65.05	101.91 (84.89 to 122.33)	4.60 (2.16 to 7.11)1	147.18	240.33	317.96 (287.07 to 348.84)	2.78 (1.47 to 4.11)1
Age (CD)
< 18	1.47	8.30	11.89 (8.29 to 15.48)	3.66 (-3.08 to 10.94)	3.61	24.85	124.03 (53.78 to 286.00)	17.55 (14.31 to 20.92)1	40.33	118.50	183.65 (163.90 to 203.40)	4.32 (2.52 to 6.16)1
18-44	7.57	46.01	116.68 (96.94 to 140.46)	9.92 (7.24 to 12.69)1	64.84	102.80	150.93 (124.77 to 182.59)	3.92 (1.95 to 5.93)1	193.44	326.05	436.55 (391.41 to 481.70)	2.92 (1.79 to 4.05)1
45-64	4.52	27.72	43.93 (36.27 to 51.59)	4.55 (0.88 to 8.38)1	36.69	50.51	52.15 (18.18 to 86.13)	0.28 (-2.69 to 3.34)	220.86	255.85	285.01 (249.96 to 320.05)	1.06 (-0.26 to 2.39)
65 +	3.39	15.24	22.93 (14.04 to 31.82)	3.91 (-1.06 to 9.15)
Sex (CD)
Male	6.06	43.58	104.55 (67.43 to 162.11)	9.1 (6.34 to 11.96)1	52.19	88.91	138.61 (113.68 to 169.03)	4.57 (2.47 to 6.71)1	138.37	237.97	320.97 (289.33 to 352.62)	2.98 (1.66 to 4.31)1
Female	3.51	15.65	28.31 (19.45 to 37.17)	5.83 (1.11 to 10.81)1	45.84	94.14	171.49 (148.86 to 197.55)	6.16 (4.18 to 8.19)1	154.99	241.79	314.13 (282.74 to 345.51)	2.61 (1.30 to 3.94)1

¹Significantly increasing/decreasing average annual percentage change.

AAPC: Average annual percentage change; CD: Crohn’s disease; CDARS: Clinical data analysis and reporting system; CI: Confidence interval; IBD: Inflammatory bowel disease; JMDC: Japan Medical Data Center; Merative: The Merative™ MarketScan^® (“Merative” previously IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters) database; PI: Prediction interval; UC: Ulcerative colitis. Prevalence is expressed per 100000 population. Prevalence was age-standardized using the World Health Organization standard population, except for age-stratified prevalence, which consisted of crude rates.