Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis

doi:10.3748/wjg.v28.i19.2123

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World Journal of Gastroenterology

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1007-9327

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Baishideng Publishing Group Inc, 7041 Koll Center Parkway, Suite 160, Pleasanton, CA 94566, USA

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Retrospective Cohort Study

World J Gastroenterol. May 21, 2022; 28(19): 2123-2136
Published online May 21, 2022. doi: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i19.2123

Table 1 Characteristics of non-severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis patients in derivation and validation cohort

Characteristic	Derivation cohort		P value	Validation cohort		P value
Characteristic	non-SAP (n = 327)	SAP (n = 80)	P value	non-SAP (n = 131)	SAP (n = 59)	P value
Age (yr)	49.0 (36.0; 63.5)	46.0 (34.8; 62.2)	0.424	40.0 (32.0; 58.5)	44.0 (38.0; 53.0)	0.371
Female (%)	131 (40.1)	27 (33.8)	0.363	63 (48.1)	14 (23.7)	0.003
Weekend admission (%)	65 (19.9)	26 (32.5)	0.023	37 (28.2)	13 (22.0)	0.471
Etiology (%)			0.021			0.003
Biliary	113 (34.6)	31 (38.8)		54 (41.2)	11 (18.6)
Hypertriglyceridemia	113 (34.6)	36 (45.0)		44 (33.6)	21 (35.6)
Alcoholic	27 (8.26)	7 (8.75)		5 (3.82)	8 (13.6)
Others	74 (22.6)	6 (7.50)		28 (21.4)	19 (32.2)
Peritoneal irritation (%)	74 (22.6)	31 (38.8)	0.005	27 (20.6)	32 (54.2)	< 0.001
GCS < 15 (%)	2 (0.61)	5 (6.25)	0.004	3 (2.29)	7 (11.9)	0.011
Tem (℃)	36.6 (36.4; 37.0)	37.2 (36.5; 38.2)	< 0.001	37.0 (36.8; 37.4)	38.0 (37.5; 38.4)	< 0.001
SBP (KPa)	17.2 (15.9; 18.7)	16.4 (14.9; 18.8)	0.119	16.3 (15.2; 18.4)	16.8 (14.7; 19.5)	0.949
HR (bpm)	82.0 (76.0; 94.5)	118 (99.5; 132)	< 0.001	89.0 (79.0; 102)	110 (100; 130)	< 0.001
RR (bpm)	20.0 (18.0; 20.0)	22.0 (20.0; 28.2)	< 0.001	20.0 (18.0; 21.0)	23.0 (20.5; 29.5)	< 0.001
WBC (× 10⁹/L)	11.6 (8.74; 15.2)	14.2 (10.2; 18.7)	0.001	12.4 (8.70; 15.6)	16.4 (12.2; 21.1)	< 0.001
HCT (%)	40.8 (37.5; 44.8)	43.6 (36.9; 48.4)	0.022	41.3 (37.8; 45.0)	42.9 (36.5; 49.0)	0.218
PLT (×10⁹/L)	221 (178; 276)	192 (156; 274)	0.03	232 (196; 278)	202 (166; 264)	0.025
K (mmol/L)	3.90 (3.60; 4.25)	3.90 (3.50; 4.30)	0.817	3.90 (3.50; 4.10)	4.00 (3.50; 4.55)	0.074
Na (mmol/L)	137 (134; 140)	137 (132; 140)	0.909	137 (133; 140)	137 (133; 140)	0.664
Ca (mmol/L)	2.26 (2.13; 2.34)	1.96 (1.74; 2.16)	< 0.001	2.22 (2.08; 2.32)	1.93 (1.77; 2.10)	< 0.001
Cr (μmol/L)	67.0 (55.0; 80.0)	90.0 (70.8; 142)	< 0.001	61.0 (52.0; 77.0)	90.0 (62.5; 227)	< 0.001
BUN (mmol/L)	5.00 (3.88; 6.34)	7.06 (5.26; 10.4)	< 0.001	4.66 (3.32; 5.84)	6.67 (4.91; 14.2)	< 0.001
Glu (mmol/L)	8.00 (6.50; 12.9)	11.0 (7.45; 16.3)	< 0.001	8.70 (6.80; 11.8)	11.3 (8.05; 17.2)	0.004
Local complication (%)	104 (31.8)	73 (91.2)	< 0.001	66 (50.4)	55 (93.2)	< 0.001
ICU admission (%)	12 (3.67)	37 (46.2)	< 0.001	12 (9.16)	38 (64.4)	< 0.001
ICU stays (d)	0.00 (0.00; 0.00)	0.00 (0.00; 10.0)	< 0.001	0.00 (0.00; 0.00)	5.00 (0.00; 9.00)	< 0.001
Hospital stays (d)	10.0 (7.00; 14.0)	17.5 (8.75; 25.0)	< 0.001	9.00 (4.00; 15.0)	23.0 (15.0; 30.0)	< 0.001
Mortality (%)	0 (0.00)	3 (3.75)	0.007	1 (0.76)	4 (6.78)	0.033
qSOFA	0.00 (0.00; 0.00)	1.00 (0.00; 1.00)	< 0.001	0.00 (0.00; 1.00)	1.00 (0.00; 1.00)	< 0.001
SIRS	1.00 (0.00; 2.00)	3.00 (2.00; 3.00)	< 0.001	1.00 (0.00; 2.00)	3.00 (2.00; 3.00)	< 0.001
BISAP	1.00 (0.00; 1.00)	2.00 (2.00; 3.00)	< 0.001	1.00 (0.00; 2.00)	2.00 (2.00; 3.00)	< 0.001

SAP: Severe acute pancreatitis; GCS: Glasgow coma score; Tem: Temperature; SBP: Systolic blood pressure; HR: Heart rate; RR: Respiratory rate; WBC: White blood cell; HCT: Hematocrit; PLT: Platelet; Cr: Creatine; BUN: Blood urea nitrogen; Glu: Glucose; ICU: Intensive care unit; qSOFA: Quick sequential organ failure assessment; SIRS: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome; BISAP: Bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis.

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Citation: Li YL, Zhang DD, Xiong YY, Wang RF, Gao XM, Gong H, Zheng SC, Wu D. Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis. World J Gastroenterol 2022; 28(19): 2123-2136
URL: https://www.wjgnet.com/1007-9327/full/v28/i19/2123.htm
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v28.i19.2123

Li YL, Zhang DD, Xiong YY, Wang RF, Gao XM, Gong H, Zheng SC, Wu D. Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis. World J Gastroenterol 2022; 28(19): 2123-2136 [PMID: 35664037 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v28.i19.2123]

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