Prognostic value of risk scoring systems for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding

Table 4 The predictive value indices for predicting in-hospital adverse outcomes in clinically useful scoring systems

Score	Youdenindex	Cut-off	SEN	95%CI	SPE	95%CI	PPV	95%CI	NPV	95%CI
In-hospital rebleeding
CTP	0.3851	> 7	74.6	62.5-84.5	63.9	57.8-69.7	34.5	29.8-39.4	90.8	86.6-93.8
CRS	0.3982	> 2	65.7	53.1-76.8	74.1	68.4-79.3	39.3	33.1-45.8	89.4	85.8-92.2
In-hospital mortality
CRS	0.6751	> 2	94.3	80.8-99.3	73.2	67.8-78.2	29.5	25.4-33.9	99.1	96.6-99.8
CTP	0.5632	> 7	94.3	80.8-99.3	62.0	56.2-67.6	22.8	20.0-25.8	98.9	96.0-99.7
AIMS65	0.6339	> 1	80.0	63.1-91.6	83.4	78.6-87.5	36.4	29.6-43.7	97.2	94.8-98.6
MELD-Na	0.5685	> 17	71.4	53.7-85.4	85.4	80.9-89.2	36.8	29.1-45.1	96.2	93.7-97.7
MELD	0.5157	> 12	74.3	56.7-87.5	77.3	72.1-81.9	28.0	22.6-34.1	96.2	93.5-97.8
mGBS	0.4349	> 10	68.6	50.7-83.1	74.9	69.6-79.8	24.5	19.4-30.4	95.3	92.5-97.1
CANUKA	0.3521	> 12	45.7	28.8-63.4	89.5	85.4-92.7	34.0	24.0-45.8	93.3	91.1-95.0
GBS	0.3700	> 12	74.3	56.7-87.5	62.7	56.9-68.2	19.1	15.6-23.2	95.4	92.1-97.3
In-hospital adverse outcomes
CTP	0.4699	> 7	78.8	68.6-86.9	68.2	61.9-73.9	46.2	41.0-51.5	90.3	85.9-93.4
CRS	0.5095	> 2	71.8	61.0-81.0	79.2	73.6-84.1	54.5	47.5-61.2	89.0	85.1-91.9
MELD-Na	0.3758	> 13	69.4	58.5-79.0	68.2	61.9-73.9	43.1	37.5-48.8	86.5	82.2-89.9
MELD	0.3241	> 13	45.9	35.0-57.0	86.5	81.6-90.5	54.2	44.4-63.6	82.2	79.0-84.9
AIMS65	0.3830	> 1	51.8	40.7-62.7	86.5	81.6-90.5	57.1	47.7-66.1	83.8	80.5-86.6

SEN: Sensitivity; SPE: Specificity; PPV: Positive predictive value; NPV: Negative predictive value; CI: Confidence interval; CTP: Child-Turcotte-Pugh score; MELD: Model for end-stage liver disease; CRS: Clinical Rockall score; GBS: Glasgow-Blatchford score; mGBS: Modified Glasgow-Blatchford score; AIMS65: AIMS65 score; CANUKA: Canada-United Kingdom-Australia score.