Novel risk scoring system for prediction of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

Table 3 Univariate and multivariate analyses of predictive factors for clinically relevant pancreatic fistula in the study group (n = 189)

Factor	Univariate analysis			Multivariate analysis
	OR	95%CI	P-value	OR	95%CI	P-value
Patient characteristics
Age (≥ 65 yr/< 65 yr)	1.07	0.52-2.21	0.848
Sex (male/female)	0.58	0.27-1.14	0.107
BMI (≥ 24/< 24 kg/m2)	0.99	0.44-2.22	0.983
Diabetes mellitus (yes/no)	0.73	0.26-2.04	0.546
Preoperative status
Location of tumor (pancreas/non-pancreas)	0.66	0.32-1.35	0.256
Preoperative STB (≥ 22 μmol/L vs < 22 μmol/L)	1.07	0.50-2.30	0.857
Preoperative pre-albumin (≥ 170 mg/L vs < 170 mg/L)	0.84	0.38-1.88	0.672
Preoperative serum albumin (≥ 35 g/L vs < 35 g/L)	0.19	0.09-0.40	< 0.001	0.92	0.85-0.99	0.032
Preoperative serum globulin (≥ 22 g/L vs < 22 g/L)	2.59	0.58-11.65	0.201
Preoperative hemoglobin (≥ 110 g/L vs < 110 g/L)	0.61	0.27-1.40	0.241
Preoperative WBC (≥ 3.5 × 109/L vs < 3.5 × 109/L)	0.75	0.14-3.85	0.725
Preoperative PLT (≥ 150 × 109/L vs < 150 × 109/L)	1.08	0.74-3.41	0.898
Intraoperative status
Pancreatic texture (hard/soft)	0.05	0.02-0.12	< 0.001	0.25	0.10-0.64	0.004
Surgery (PD/PPPD)	1.04	0.51-2.12	0.914
Pathologic type (benign/malignant)	2.42	0.67-8.74	0.166
Main pancreatic duct diameter (≥ 3 mm vs < 3 mm)	0.26	0.12-0.54	< 0.001	0.50	0.27-0.93	0.029
Pancreaticojejunostomy anastomosis (duct-to-mucosa/dunking method)	0.58	0.25-1.34	0.202
Pancreatic duct stent (yes/no)	1.71	0.62-4.73	0.301
Vascular invasion (yes/no)	0.90	0.34-2.38	0.834
Operative time (≥ 300 min vs < 300 min)	0.74	0.36-1.65	0.466
Estimated blood loss (≥ 500 mL vs < 500 mL)	3.63	1.65-7.98	0.001	1.002	1.001-1.003	0.006
Postoperative status
Serum albumin POD 1 (≥ 35 g/L vs < 35 g/L)	0.74	0.34-1.65	0.466
Serum globulin POD 1 (≥ 22 g/L vs < 22 g/L)	0.93	0.46-1.91	0.851
Hemoglobin POD 1 (≥ 110 g/L vs < 110 g/L)	2.07	0.96-4.46	0.062

BMI: Body mass index; PD: Pancreaticoduodenectomy; PPPD: Pylorus-preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy; POD: Postoperative day; WBC: White blood cells; PLT: Platelets; STB: Serum total bilirubin; OR: Odds ratio; CI: Confidence interval.