Prophecy about post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: From divination to science

Table 1 Comparison of patient-related risk factors for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis by multivariate analysis in the classic article and current knowledge by meta-analysis or multivariate studies

Risk factors in the classic article	Current knowledge1
Significant in multivariate analysis	High risk factors
Suspected sphincter of Oddi dysfunction	Suspected sphincter of Oddi dysfunction
Female gender	Female gender
History of post-ERCP pancreatitis	Previous pancreatitis
Normal serum bilirubin	Normal serum bilirubin
Absence of chronic pancreatitis	Young age
Significant only in univariate analysis	Possible risk factors
Pancreas divisum	Non-dilated extrahepatic ducts
Recurrent abdominal pain	Absence of chronic pancreatitis
History of acute pancreatitis of any etiology	Absence of definite common bile duct stone
Cholangiogram normal	Obesity2
Pancreatogram normal
Age < 55 yr
Prior cholecystectomy
Absence of definite common bile duct stone
Not significant	Not related
Previous sphincterotomy	Pancreas divisum
Distal common bile duct diameter ≤ 5 mm	Allergy to contrast media
Prior failed ERCP	Prior failed ERCP

¹Current knowledge is based on recent guidelines by American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy[6] and European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy[5], and relevant articles[3,22];

²Based on recent multivariate analysis in abstract form[13]. ERCP: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography.