Imaging-independent model for predicting choledocholithiasis in acute biliary pancreatitis

Table 2 Performance of different models in predicting intraductal concrements (values in square brackets represent 95% confidence interval)

	CBD width (≥ 8 mm)	Bilirubin (≥ 4 mg/dL)	CBD + bilirubin	RF model
Sensitivity	0.795 (0.645; 0.892)	0.308 (0.186; 0.464)	0.256 (0.146; 0.411)	0.923 (0.797; 0.973)
Specificity	0.548 (0.378; 0.708)	0.774 (0.602; 0.886)	0.903 (0.751; 0.967)	0.355 (0.211; 0.531)
PPV	0.689 (0.543; 0.805)	0.632 (0.410; 0.809)	0.769 (0.497; 0.918)	0.643 (0.512; 0.755)
NPV	0.680 (0.484; 0.828)	0.471 (0.341; 0.605)	0.491 (0.366; 0.617)	0.786 (0.524; 0.924)
Correct rule-out (true negative), n (%)	17 (24.29)	24 (34.29)	28 (40.00)	11 (15.71)
False rule-out (missed IDCs), n (%)	8 (11.43)	27 (38.57)	29 (41.43)	3 (4.29)
Accuracy	0.686 (0.570; 0.782)	0.514 (0.400; 0.628)	0.543 (0.427; 0.654)	0.671 (0.555; 0.770)

IDC: Intraductal concrements; CBD: Common bile duct; PPV: Positive predictive value; NPV: Negative predictive value; RF: Random forest.