Cluster-based metabolic subphenotypes and projected cross-organ risk in Chinese adults with prediabetes

Table 2 Exploratory Poisson regression analyses of threshold-defined intermediate/high-risk outcomes across organ domains, n (%)

Subtype	Model	n	Participants meeting threshold	PR	95%CI (PR)	P value
Framingham-estimated 10-year CVD risk ≥ 10%
MOD (Ref)	Model 1	132	22 (16.7)	Ref	-	-
MARD	Model 1	138	71 (51.4)	3.087	2.040-4.672	< 0.001
SID	Model 1	108	28 (25.9)	1.556	0.946-2.557	0.082
SIR	Model 1	74	10 (13.5)	0.811	0.406-1.618	0.552
MOD (Ref)	Model 2	132	22 (16.7)	Ref	-	-
MARD	Model 2	138	71 (51.4)	1.942	1.283-2.940	0.002
SID	Model 2	108	28 (25.9)	1.805	1.116-2.921	0.016
SIR	Model 2	74	10 (13.5)	0.399	0.206-0.772	0.006
CKD-PC-estimated projected 5-year CKD risk ≥ 5%
MOD (Ref)	Model 1	133	7 (5.3)	Ref	-	-
MARD	Model 1	133	65 (48.9)	9.286	4.423-19.495	< 0.001
SID	Model 1	107	36 (33.6)	6.393	2.964-13.787	< 0.001
SIR	Model 1	75	9 (12.0)	2.280	0.885-5.874	0.088
MOD (Ref)	Model 2	133	7 (5.3)	Ref	-	-
MARD	Model 2	133	65 (48.9)	8.748	4.123-18.560	< 0.001
SID	Model 2	107	36 (33.6)	6.407	2.990-13.728	< 0.001
SIR	Model 2	75	9 (12.0)	2.095	0.790-5.555	0.137
FIB-4 ≥ 1.30
MOD (Ref)	Model 1	177	17 (9.6)	Ref	-	-
MARD	Model 1	190	68 (35.8)	3.726	2.282-6.085	< 0.001
SID	Model 1	159	58 (36.5)	3.798	2.312-6.239	< 0.001
SIR	Model 1	95	9 (9.5)	0.986	0.457-2.127	0.972
MOD (Ref)	Model 2	165	16 (9.7)	Ref	-	-
MARD	Model 2	177	67 (37.9)	3.002	1.758-5.127	< 0.001
SID	Model 2	149	58 (38.9)	3.505	2.100-5.849	< 0.001
SIR	Model 2	94	9 (9.6)	0.912	0.410-2.028	0.821

The n column gives the subtype-specific denominator in the corresponding model sample. Participants meeting threshold are presented as n (%), with percentages calculated using the subtype-specific denominator; these values represent score-defined risk classifications rather than observed clinical outcomes. Poisson regression with HC3 robust standard errors was used to estimate prevalence ratios and 95%CI, with mild obesity-related dysmetabolism as the reference group. Model 1 was unadjusted. Revised model 2 included waist circumference, aspartate aminotransferase, platelet count, estimated glomerular filtration rate, triglyceride (TG), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) for the cardiovascular disease analysis; waist circumference, LDL-C, TG, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelet count for the chronic kidney disease analysis; and waist circumference, sex, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, TG, and LDL-C for the fibrosis-4 analysis. Covariates were aligned by participant identifier before model fitting. CKD: Chronic kidney disease; CKD-PC: Chronic kidney disease prognosis consortium; CVD: Cardiovascular disease; FIB-4: Fibrosis-4; MARD: Mild age-related dysmetabolism; MOD: Mild obesity-related dysmetabolism; PR: Prevalence ratio; SID: Severe insulin deficiency; SIR: Severe insulin resistance; Ref: Reference.